Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Agricultural Trade Publications And The 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought: A Missed Opportunity For Climate Risk Communication, Sarah P. Church, Tonya Haigh, Melissa Widhalm, Silvestre Garcia De Jalon, Nicholas Babin, J. Stuart Carlton, Michael Dunn, Katie Fagan, Cody L. Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Midwestern United States experienced a devastating drought in 2012, leading to reduced corn and soybean yields and increased instances of pests and disease. Climate change induced weather variability and extremes are expected to increase in the future, and have and will continue to impact the agricultural sector. This study investigated how agricultural trade publications portrayed the 2012 U.S. Midwestern drought, whether climate change was associated with drought, and whether these publications laid out transformative adaptation measures farmers could undertake in order to increase their adaptive capacity for future climate uncertainty. We performed a content analysis of 1000 media reports …

Information Mining From Heterogeneous Data Sources: A Case Study On Drought Predictions, Getachew B. Demisse, Tsegaye Tadesse, Solomon Atnafu, Shawndra Hill, Brian D. Wardlow, Yared Bayissa, Andualem Shiferaw

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this study was to develop information mining methodology for drought modeling and predictions using historical records of climate, satellite, environmental, and oceanic data. The classification and regression tree (CART) approach was used for extracting drought episodes at different time-lag prediction intervals. Using the CART approach, a number of successful model trees were constructed, which can easily be interpreted and used by decision makers in their drought management decisions. The regression rules produced by CART were found to have correlation coefficients from 0.71–0.95 in rules-alone modeling. The accuracies of the models were found to be higher in the …

Socio-Environmental Drought Response In A Mixed Urban-Agricultural Setting: Synthesizing Biophysical And Governance Responses In The Platte River Watershed, Nebraska, Usa, Samuel C. Zipper, Kelly Helm Smith, Betsy Breyer, Jianxiao Qui, Anthony Kung, Dustin Herrmann

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Ensuring global food and water security requires a detailed understanding of how coupled socio-environmental systems respond to drought. Using the Platte River Watershed in Nebraska (USA) as an exemplar mixed urban-agricultural watershed, we quantify biophysical response to drought in urban (Lincoln NE) and agricultural systems alongside a qualitative analysis of governance response and adaptive capacity of both sectors. Synthesis of results highlights parallels and discontinuities between urban and agricultural preparations for and response to drought. Whereas drought prompted an increase in well installations and expansion of water-intensive crops, e.g., corn, in the agricultural sector, outdoor water use restrictions rapidly curtailed …

Cocorahs Observers Contribute To “Condition Monitoring” In The Carolinas: A New Initiative Addresses Needs For Drought Impacts Information, Kirsten Lackstrom, Amanda Farris, David Eckhardt, Nolan Doesken, Henry Reges, Julian Turner, Kelly Helm Smith, Rebecca Ward

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

High Plains Regional Climate Center (Poster)

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The HPRCC provides the public with several ways to access climate data and information. Whether via direct contact, website access, or through a subscription to one of HPRCC’s online services, users can acquire a variety of climate data products, such as: • Near Real-Time and Historical Climate Data • National and Regional Climate Data Maps • Agricultural Climate Products • Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Regional Climate Summaries

Taphonomic Problems In Reconstructing Sea-Level History From The Late Quaternary Marine Terraces Of Barbados, Daniel R. Muhs, Kathleen R. Simmons

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Although uranium series (U-series) ages of growth-position fossil corals are important to Quaternary sea-level history, coral clast reworking from storms can yield ages on a terrace dating to more than one high-sea stand, confounding interpretations of sea-level history. On northern Barbados, U-series ages corals from a thick storm deposit are not always younger with successively higher stratigraphic positions, but all date to the last interglacial period (~127 ka to ~112 ka), Marine Isotope Substage (MIS) 5.5. The storm deposit ages are consistent with the ages of growth-position corals found at the base of the section and at landward localities on …

Balancing Stability And Flexibility In Adaptive Governance: An Analysis Of Tools Available In U.S. Environmental Law, Robin Kundis Craig, Ahjond S. Garmestani, Craig R. Allen, Craig Anthony (Tony) Arnold, Hannah E. Birge, Hannah Birge, Daniel A. Decaro, Alexander K. Fremier, Alexander K. Fremier, Hannah Gosnell, Edella C. Schlager

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Adaptive governance must work “on the ground,” that is, it must operate through structures and procedures that the people it governs perceive to be legitimate and fair, as well as incorporating processes and substantive goals that are effective in allowing social-ecological systems (SESs) to adapt to climate change and other impacts. To address the continuing and accelerating alterations that climate change is bringing to SESs, adaptive governance generally will require more flexibility than prior governance institutions have often allowed. However, to function as good governance, adaptive governance must pay real attention to the problem of how to balance this increased …

Smartphone Technologies And Bayesian Networks To Assess Shorebird Habitat Selection, Sara L. Zeigler, E. Robert Thieler, Benjamin T. Gutierrez, Nathaniel G. Plant, Megan Hines, James D. Fraser, Daniel H. Catlin

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Understanding patterns of habitat selection across a species’ geographic distribution can be critical for adequately managing populations and planning for habitat loss and related threats. However, studies of habitat selection can be time consuming and expensive over broad spatial scales, and a lack of standardized monitoring targets or methods can impede the generalization of site-based studies. Our objective was to collaborate with natural resource managers to define available nesting habitat for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) throughout their U.S. Atlantic coast distribution from Maine to North Carolina, with a goal of providing science that could inform habitat management in …

Camera System Considerations For Geomorphic Applications Of Sfm Photogrammetry, Adam R. Mosbrucker, Jon J. Major, Kurt R. Spicer, John Pitlick

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The availability of high-resolution, multi-temporal, remotely sensed topographic data is revolutionizing geomorphic analysis. Three-dimensional topographic point measurements acquired from structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry have been shown to be highly accurate and cost-effective compared to laser-based alternatives in some environments. Use of consumer-grade digital cameras to generate terrain models and derivatives is becoming prevalent within the geomorphic community despite the details of these instruments being largely overlooked in current SfM literature.

A practical discussion of camera system selection, configuration, and image acquisition is presented. The hypothesis that optimizing source imagery can increase digital terrain model (DTM) accuracy is tested by evaluating accuracies …

Channel-Planform Evolution In Four Rivers Of Olympic National Park, Washington, Usa: The Roles Of Physical Drivers And Trophic Cascades, Amy E. East, Kurt J. Jenkins, Patricia J. Happe, Jennifer A. Bountry, Timothy J. Beechie, Mark C. Mastin, Joel B. Sankey, Timothy J. Randle

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Identifying the relative contributions of physical and ecological processes to channel evolution remains a substantial challenge in fluvial geomorphology. We use a 74-year aerial photographic record of the Hoh, Queets, Quinault, and Elwha Rivers, Olympic National Park, Washington, USA, to investigate whether physical or trophic-cascade-driven ecological factors – excessive elk impacts after wolves were extirpated a century ago – are the dominant drivers of channel planform in these gravel-bed rivers.We find that channel width and braiding show strong relationships with recent flood history. All four rivers widened significantly after having been relatively narrow in the 1970s, consistent with increased flood …

Semi-Arid Grassland Bird Responses To Patch-Burn Grazing And Drought, Susan K. Skagen, David J. Augustine, Justin D. Derner

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

As grassland birds of central North America experience steep population declines with changes in land use, management of remaining tracts becomes increasingly important for population viability. The integrated use of fire and grazing may enhance vegetation heterogeneity and diversity in breeding birds, but the subsequent effects on reproduction are unknown. We examined the influence of patch-burn grazing management in shortgrass steppe in eastern Colorado on habitat use and reproductive success of 3 grassland bird species, horned lark (Eremophila alpestris), lark bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys), and McCown’s longspur (Rhynchophanes mccownii), at several spatial scales during 2011 …

Lack Of Observed Movement Response To Lead Exposure Of California Condors, Sharon A. Poessel, Joseph Brandt, Linda Uyeda, Molly Astell, Todd E. Katzner

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Lead poisoning is an important conservation concern for wildlife, and scavenging birds are especially at risk from consumption of carcasses of animals killed with lead ammunition. Because current methods to identify lead exposure require animal capture and blood collection, management would benefit from the development of a less costly and noninvasive behavioral test for illness in wild animals. We attempted to design such a test to identify lead exposure in California condors (Gymnogyps californianus) that we tracked with global positioning system (GPS) telemetry in southern California, USA, 2013–2016. We measured blood-lead concentrations in tracked birds and expected that …

Effects Of Industrial And Investigator Disturbance On Arctic-Nesting Geese, Brandt W. Meixell, Paul L. Flint

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Oil and gas development on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska, USA may have effects on Arctic-nesting birds. To estimate effects of industrial activity and investigator disturbance on avian productivity, we monitored nests of greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) with digital cameras and periodic nest visits during 2013–2014 at 2 sites on the ACP. A disturbed site was adjacent to human-made infrastructure and industrial clean-up activities initiated at the onset of the study and a control site was >2 km from sources of industrial disturbance. We assessed variation in estimates of incubation constancy, nest survival, and predator …

Simulating The Effects Of Management Practices On Cropland Soilorganic Carbon Changes In The Temperate Prairies Ecoregion Of Theunited States From 1980 To 2012, Zhengpeng Li, Shuguang Liu, Zhengxi Tan, Terry L. Sohl, Yiping Wu

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Understanding the effects of management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) is important for design-ing effective policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture. In the Midwest United States,management practices in the croplands have been improved to increase crop production and reduce SOCloss since the 1980s. Many studies of SOC dynamics in croplands have been performed to understandthe effects of management, but the results are still not conclusive. This study quantified SOC dynam-ics in the Midwest croplands from 1980 to 2012 with the General Ensemble Biogeochemical ModellingSystem (GEMS) and available management data. Our results showed that the total SOC in …

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- January 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Jamie Lahowetz, Bill Sorensen, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

30th anniversary......................1

Stakeholder engagement activities......................................2

Product highlights..................3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

Services update........................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Tourism Business Resilience For Coastal Virginia Assessment Report, Lindsay E. Usher, Michelle Covi, Juita-Elena Wie Yusuf, Kaitlin Giles, Elizabeth Armistead Andrews, Angela King, Sashenka Brauer, Rebecca Ribley

Commonwealth Center for Recurrent Flooding Resiliency (CCRFR): Reports

This report summarizes the results of the Tourism Business Resilience Project conducted by the Commonwealth Center for Recurrent Flooding Resiliency and Virginia Sea Grant. This project was a joint effort by faculty and students from the Old Dominion University Resilience Collaborative and the Virginia Coastal Policy Center at the William & Mary Law School.

Research And Resources, Center For Sea Level Rise, Old Dominion University

Hampton Roads Intergovernmental Pilot Project: Reports

Bibliography of Research and Resources from the Center for Sea Level Rise web site. Reformatted from the web site, March, 2017.

Weathering And Erosion Of Fractured Bedrock Systems, Marina I. Lebedeva, Susan L. Brantley

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

We explore the contribution of fractures (joints) in controlling the rate of weathering advance for a low-porosity rock by using methods of homogenization to create averaged weathering equations. The rate of advance of the weathering front can be expressed as the same rate observed in non-fractured media (or in an individual block) divided by the volume fraction of nonfractured blocks in the fractured parent material. In the model, the parent has fractures that are filled with a more porous material that contains only inert or completely weathered material. The low-porosity rock weathers by reaction-transport processes. As observed in field systems, …

A Model-Based Assessment Of Potential Impacts Of Man-Made Reservoirs On Precipitation, Jesse Winchester, Rezaul Mahmood, William Rodgers, Faisal Hossain, Eric Rappin, Joshua D. Durkee, Themis Chronis

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Land-use land-cover change (LULCC) plays an important role in weather and climate systems. Human modifications of land cover include building reservoirs and thus creating artificial lakes for multipurpose use. In this research, the authors have completed a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–based assessment of impacts of two large parallel lakes on precipitation. This area is located in the western part of the states of Kentucky and Tennessee and known as the Land between the Lakes (LBL). To determine the impacts, this study has replaced the lakes with grass, deciduous forests, and bare soil and conducted model simulations for three …

The Effect Of The Dry Line And Convective Initiation On Drought Evolution Over Oklahoma During The 2011 Drought, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Bradley G. Illston, Jason A. Otkin

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet and high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were used to evaluate the effect that the dry line and large-scale atmospheric patterns had on drought evolution during 2011. Mesonet observations showed that a “dry” and “wet” pattern developed across Oklahoma due to anomalous atmospheric patterns. The location of the dry line varied due to this “dry” and “wet” pattern, with the average dry line location around 1.5∘ longitude further to the east than climatology.Model simulations were used to further quantify the impact of variable surface conditions on dry line evolution and convective initiation (CI) …

Useful To Usable: Developing Usable Climate Science For Agriculture, Linda Stalker Prokopy, J. Stuart Carlton, Tonya Haigh, Maria Carmen Lemos, Amber Saylor Mase, Melissa Widhalm

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Useful to Usable (U2U) project was a six-year research and extension project funded by the United States Department of Agriculture to provide both useful and usable climate information for the agricultural (corn) sector in the Midwestern United States. The project adopted an extensive co-production of knowledge and decision-making approach that involved intense iteration with potential end-users, including farmers and a variety of professional agricultural advisors, through focus groups and surveys, feedback at outreach events, and frequent informal interactions to develop both decision support tools and delivery mechanisms that met stakeholder needs. This overview paper for this special issue illustrates …

Droughtscape, Winter 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC partners with Sioux tribes to build climate resiliency

Drought intensifies in some regions of U.S. in fall

Fire danger and sequoia deaths in third quarter

2016: Year in review

MENA region forums elicit

feedback from stakeholders

Tech pass-off in Tunisia

Midwest DEWS meetings build collaboration, relationships

Workshop links drought, socioeconomic impacts/p>

Drought center helps ranchers prepare for drought

Drought tourney in Nebraska goes low tech

Evaluating Hourly Rainfall Characteristics Over The U.S. Great Plains In Dynamically Downscaled Climate Model Simulations Using Nasa-Unified Wrf, Huikyo Lee, Duane E. Waliser, Robert Ferraro, Takamichi Iguchi, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Baijun Tian, Paul C. Loikith, Daniel B. Wright

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Accurate simulation of extreme precipitation events remains a challenge in climate models. This study utilizes hourly precipitation data from ground stations and satellite instruments to evaluate rainfall characteristics simulated by the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) regional climate model at horizontal resolutions of 4, 12, and 24 km over the Great Plains of the United States. We also examined the sensitivity of the simulated precipitation to different spectral nudging approaches and the cumulus parameterizations. The rainfall characteristics in the observations and simulations were defined as an hourly diurnal cycle of precipitation and a joint probability distribution function (JPDF) between …

Investigating The Atmospheric Production Of Perchlorate: Inference From Polar Ice Cores, Thomas S. Cox

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Perchlorate (ClO₄) in the environment is of concern, because of potential health risks to humans, among other reasons. Evidence suggests that the majority of environmental perchlorate is formed in the atmosphere (likely in the stratosphere), in chemical processes involving ozone and stratospheric chlorine. A lack of knowledge in regards to the processes has resulted in a limited understanding of the environmental conditions and variables that influence perchlorate production and consequently perchlorate prevalence and variability in the environment. In this study, perchlorate was measured, using an established ion chromatography-­‐electrospray ionization-­‐tandem mass spectrometry (IC-­‐ESI-­‐ MS/MS) technique, in over 1,600 snowpit …

Widespread Infilling Of Tidal Channels And Navigable Waterways In The Human-Modified Tidal Deltaplain Of Southwest Bangladesh, C. Wilson, S. Goodbred, C. Small, J. Gilligan, S. Sams, B. Mallick, R. Hale

OES Faculty Publications

Since the 1960s, ~5000 km² of tidal deltaplain in southwest Bangladesh has been embanked and converted to densely inhabited, agricultural islands (i.e., polders). This landscape is juxtaposed to the adjacent Sundarbans, a pristine mangrove forest, both well connected by a dense network of tidal channels that effectively convey water and sediment throughout the region. The extensive embanking in poldered areas, however, has greatly reduced the tidal prism (i.e., volume of water) transported through local channels. We reveal that >600 km of these major waterways have infilled in recent decades, converting to land through enhanced sedimentation and the direct blocking …

Comparison Of Acoustic Recorders And Field Observers For Monitoring Tundra Bird Communities, Skyler T. Vold, Colleen M. Handel, Lance B. Mcnew

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Acoustic recorders can be useful for studying bird populations but their efficiency and accuracy should be assessed in pertinent ecological settings before use. We investigated the utility of an acoustic recorder formonitoring abundance of tundra-breeding birds relative to point-count surveys in northwestern Alaska, USA, during 2014. Our objectives were to 1) compare numbers of birds and species detected by a field observer with those detected simultaneously by an acoustic recorder; 2) evaluate how detection probabilities for the observer and acoustic recorder varied with distance of birds from the survey point; and 3) evaluate whether avian guild-specific detection rates differed between …

The Aerosphere As A Network Connector Of Organisms And Their Diseases, Jeremy D. Ross, Eli S. Bridge, Diann J. Prosser, John Y. Takekawa

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Aeroecological processes, especially powered flight of animals, can rapidly connect biological communities across the globe. This can have profound consequences for evolutionary diversification, energy and nutrient transfers, and the spread of infectious diseases. The latter is of particular consequence for human populations, since migratory birds are known to host diseases which have a history of transmission into domestic poultry or even jumping to human hosts. In this chapter, we present a scenario under which a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strain enters North America from East Asia via postmolting waterfowl migration. We use an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the …

Compensatory Response Of Fathead Minnow Larvae Following A Pulsed In-Situ Exposure To A Seasonal Agricultural Runoff Event, Jonathan M. Ali, John Sangster, Daniel D. Snow, Shannon L. Bartelt-Hunt, Alan S. Kolok

Nebraska Water Center: Faculty Publications

Agriculturally-dominated waterways such as those found throughout the Midwestern United States often experience seasonal pulses of agrichemical contaminants which pose a potential hazard to aquatic organisms at varying life stages. The objective of this study was to characterize the developmental plasticity of fathead minnow larvae in a natural environment subject to a seasonal episodic perturbation in the form of a complex mixture of agricultural stressors. Fathead minnow larvae were maintained at the Elkhorn River Research Station for a 28-d in situ exposure to an agrichemical pulse event.Minnow larvae were sampled after 14 and 28 days to characterize developmental plasticity through …

Remote Sensing Observation Of Annual Dust Cycles And Possible Causality Of Kawasaki Disease Outbreaks In Japan, Hesham El-Askary, Nick Lahaye, Erik J. Linstead, William A. Sprigg, Magdi Yacoub

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a rare vascular disease that, if left untreated, can result in irreparable cardiac damage in children. While the symptoms of KD are well-known, as are best practices for treatment, the etiology of the disease and the factors contributing to KD outbreaks remain puzzling to both medical practitioners and scientists alike. Recently, a fungus known as Candida, originating in the farmlands of China, has been blamed for outbreaks in China and Japan, with the hypothesis that it can be transported over long ranges via different wind mechanisms. This paper provides evidence to understand the transport mechanisms …

The Biology Of Climate Change: The Effects Of Changing Climate On Migrating And Over-Wintering Species At A High-Elevation Field Station, Carrie A. Wu, Ellwein Amy

Biology Faculty Publications

Students engage with long-term environmental and phenology data sets (spanning over 40 years) collected at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, a high-elevation field station in Colorado, to explore the effects of climate change on the phenology of migrating and hibernating species. After becoming familiar with the geographic context, people involved with the data collection, and organisms studied through background readings and videos, students explore the raw data set in Excel or using an interactive data visualization tool. In small groups, students reproduce figures and regressions from Inouye et al. (2000) based on those data, then expand their analyses with data …