Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Upper Blue Nile Basin Water Budget From A Multi-Model Perspective, Hahn Chul Jung, Augusto Getirana, Frederick Policelli, Amy Mcnally, Kristi R. Arsenault, Sujay Kumar, Tsegaye Tadesse, Christa D. Peters-Lidard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based …

Climate Change And Population Growth Impacts On Surface Water Supply And Demand Of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Bisrat Kifle Arsiso, Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu, Gerrit Hendrik Stoffberg, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study includes analysis of water consumption, hydrological information and climate data which is statistically downscaled using approach used to generate climate data available at the Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 …

Agricultural Trade Publications And The 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought: A Missed Opportunity For Climate Risk Communication, Sarah P. Church, Tonya Haigh, Melissa Widhalm, Silvestre Garcia De Jalon, Nicholas Babin, J. Stuart Carlton, Michael Dunn, Katie Fagan, Cody L. Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Midwestern United States experienced a devastating drought in 2012, leading to reduced corn and soybean yields and increased instances of pests and disease. Climate change induced weather variability and extremes are expected to increase in the future, and have and will continue to impact the agricultural sector. This study investigated how agricultural trade publications portrayed the 2012 U.S. Midwestern drought, whether climate change was associated with drought, and whether these publications laid out transformative adaptation measures farmers could undertake in order to increase their adaptive capacity for future climate uncertainty. We performed a content analysis of 1000 media reports …

Information Mining From Heterogeneous Data Sources: A Case Study On Drought Predictions, Getachew B. Demisse, Tsegaye Tadesse, Solomon Atnafu, Shawndra Hill, Brian D. Wardlow, Yared Bayissa, Andualem Shiferaw

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this study was to develop information mining methodology for drought modeling and predictions using historical records of climate, satellite, environmental, and oceanic data. The classification and regression tree (CART) approach was used for extracting drought episodes at different time-lag prediction intervals. Using the CART approach, a number of successful model trees were constructed, which can easily be interpreted and used by decision makers in their drought management decisions. The regression rules produced by CART were found to have correlation coefficients from 0.71–0.95 in rules-alone modeling. The accuracies of the models were found to be higher in the …

Socio-Environmental Drought Response In A Mixed Urban-Agricultural Setting: Synthesizing Biophysical And Governance Responses In The Platte River Watershed, Nebraska, Usa, Samuel C. Zipper, Kelly Helm Smith, Betsy Breyer, Jianxiao Qui, Anthony Kung, Dustin Herrmann

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Ensuring global food and water security requires a detailed understanding of how coupled socio-environmental systems respond to drought. Using the Platte River Watershed in Nebraska (USA) as an exemplar mixed urban-agricultural watershed, we quantify biophysical response to drought in urban (Lincoln NE) and agricultural systems alongside a qualitative analysis of governance response and adaptive capacity of both sectors. Synthesis of results highlights parallels and discontinuities between urban and agricultural preparations for and response to drought. Whereas drought prompted an increase in well installations and expansion of water-intensive crops, e.g., corn, in the agricultural sector, outdoor water use restrictions rapidly curtailed …

Cocorahs Observers Contribute To “Condition Monitoring” In The Carolinas: A New Initiative Addresses Needs For Drought Impacts Information, Kirsten Lackstrom, Amanda Farris, David Eckhardt, Nolan Doesken, Henry Reges, Julian Turner, Kelly Helm Smith, Rebecca Ward

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

High Plains Regional Climate Center (Poster)

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The HPRCC provides the public with several ways to access climate data and information. Whether via direct contact, website access, or through a subscription to one of HPRCC’s online services, users can acquire a variety of climate data products, such as: • Near Real-Time and Historical Climate Data • National and Regional Climate Data Maps • Agricultural Climate Products • Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Regional Climate Summaries

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- January 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Jamie Lahowetz, Bill Sorensen, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

30th anniversary......................1

Stakeholder engagement activities......................................2

Product highlights..................3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

Services update........................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

A Model-Based Assessment Of Potential Impacts Of Man-Made Reservoirs On Precipitation, Jesse Winchester, Rezaul Mahmood, William Rodgers, Faisal Hossain, Eric Rappin, Joshua D. Durkee, Themis Chronis

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Land-use land-cover change (LULCC) plays an important role in weather and climate systems. Human modifications of land cover include building reservoirs and thus creating artificial lakes for multipurpose use. In this research, the authors have completed a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–based assessment of impacts of two large parallel lakes on precipitation. This area is located in the western part of the states of Kentucky and Tennessee and known as the Land between the Lakes (LBL). To determine the impacts, this study has replaced the lakes with grass, deciduous forests, and bare soil and conducted model simulations for three …

The Effect Of The Dry Line And Convective Initiation On Drought Evolution Over Oklahoma During The 2011 Drought, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Bradley G. Illston, Jason A. Otkin

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet and high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were used to evaluate the effect that the dry line and large-scale atmospheric patterns had on drought evolution during 2011. Mesonet observations showed that a “dry” and “wet” pattern developed across Oklahoma due to anomalous atmospheric patterns. The location of the dry line varied due to this “dry” and “wet” pattern, with the average dry line location around 1.5∘ longitude further to the east than climatology.Model simulations were used to further quantify the impact of variable surface conditions on dry line evolution and convective initiation (CI) …

Useful To Usable: Developing Usable Climate Science For Agriculture, Linda Stalker Prokopy, J. Stuart Carlton, Tonya Haigh, Maria Carmen Lemos, Amber Saylor Mase, Melissa Widhalm

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Useful to Usable (U2U) project was a six-year research and extension project funded by the United States Department of Agriculture to provide both useful and usable climate information for the agricultural (corn) sector in the Midwestern United States. The project adopted an extensive co-production of knowledge and decision-making approach that involved intense iteration with potential end-users, including farmers and a variety of professional agricultural advisors, through focus groups and surveys, feedback at outreach events, and frequent informal interactions to develop both decision support tools and delivery mechanisms that met stakeholder needs. This overview paper for this special issue illustrates …

Droughtscape, Winter 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC partners with Sioux tribes to build climate resiliency

Drought intensifies in some regions of U.S. in fall

Fire danger and sequoia deaths in third quarter

2016: Year in review

MENA region forums elicit

feedback from stakeholders

Tech pass-off in Tunisia

Midwest DEWS meetings build collaboration, relationships

Workshop links drought, socioeconomic impacts/p>

Drought center helps ranchers prepare for drought

Drought tourney in Nebraska goes low tech

Evaluating Hourly Rainfall Characteristics Over The U.S. Great Plains In Dynamically Downscaled Climate Model Simulations Using Nasa-Unified Wrf, Huikyo Lee, Duane E. Waliser, Robert Ferraro, Takamichi Iguchi, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Baijun Tian, Paul C. Loikith, Daniel B. Wright

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Accurate simulation of extreme precipitation events remains a challenge in climate models. This study utilizes hourly precipitation data from ground stations and satellite instruments to evaluate rainfall characteristics simulated by the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) regional climate model at horizontal resolutions of 4, 12, and 24 km over the Great Plains of the United States. We also examined the sensitivity of the simulated precipitation to different spectral nudging approaches and the cumulus parameterizations. The rainfall characteristics in the observations and simulations were defined as an hourly diurnal cycle of precipitation and a joint probability distribution function (JPDF) between …

Remote Sensing Observation Of Annual Dust Cycles And Possible Causality Of Kawasaki Disease Outbreaks In Japan, Hesham El-Askary, Nick Lahaye, Erik J. Linstead, William A. Sprigg, Magdi Yacoub

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a rare vascular disease that, if left untreated, can result in irreparable cardiac damage in children. While the symptoms of KD are well-known, as are best practices for treatment, the etiology of the disease and the factors contributing to KD outbreaks remain puzzling to both medical practitioners and scientists alike. Recently, a fungus known as Candida, originating in the farmlands of China, has been blamed for outbreaks in China and Japan, with the hypothesis that it can be transported over long ranges via different wind mechanisms. This paper provides evidence to understand the transport mechanisms …

The Biology Of Climate Change: The Effects Of Changing Climate On Migrating And Over-Wintering Species At A High-Elevation Field Station, Carrie A. Wu, Ellwein Amy

Biology Faculty Publications

Students engage with long-term environmental and phenology data sets (spanning over 40 years) collected at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, a high-elevation field station in Colorado, to explore the effects of climate change on the phenology of migrating and hibernating species. After becoming familiar with the geographic context, people involved with the data collection, and organisms studied through background readings and videos, students explore the raw data set in Excel or using an interactive data visualization tool. In small groups, students reproduce figures and regressions from Inouye et al. (2000) based on those data, then expand their analyses with data …

Changes In Arctic Climate And Central U.S. Weather Patterns Is There A Link?, Donald A. Wilhite, Kimberly C. Morrow, Martha Shulski

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Earlier snowmelt, decreasing soil moisture, decreased corn yields, increasing extreme precipitation events—these are some of the weather effects currently observed in the central United States that might well have their origin in the rapidly warming Arctic. These and other implications of Arctic warming were among the topics discussed at a fall 2015 workshop, Implications of a Changing Arctic on Water Resources and Agriculture in the Central U.S (Wilhite and Morrow 2016).

The United States assumed chairmanship of the Arctic Council in April 2015, making the workshop topic timely. Given the importance of the Midwest and Great Plains region as a …

Evaluation Of Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates And Application To Monitor Meteorological Drought For The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Yared Bayissa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Getachew B. Demisse, Andualem Shiferaw

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a recurring phenomenon in Ethiopia that significantly impacts the socioeconomic sector and various components of the environment. The overarching goal of this study is to assess the spatial and temporal patterns of meteorological drought using a satellite-derived rainfall product for the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBN). The satellite rainfall product used in this study was selected through evaluation of five high-resolution products (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) v2.0, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), African Rainfall Climatology and Time-series (TARCAT) v2.0, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Africa Rainfall Estimate …

Developing A Hydrological Monitoring Program For Ponds In Wapusk National Park, Manitoba, Using Water Isotope Tracers, Stephanie Roy

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Northern lake-rich landscapes are vulnerable to increases in surface air temperatures and are changing in dynamic ways. Current meteorological records indicate that some of the greatest warming in the past century has occurred in the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL). As the HBL is an extensive wetland consisting of hundreds of thousands of shallow lakes and ponds, it is difficult to anticipate the long-term implications that climate change will have on pond water balance. To develop and implement long-term monitoring of hydrological conditions, sampling of pond water isotope composition has occurred during the past six years in Wapusk National Park (WNP), …

Flight Of The Freshwater Fish, Michael H. Wilson

Capstones

Michael H. Wilson

Capstone Abstract

December 27, 2016

Flight of the Freshwater Fish

The Hudson River provides for millions of people as a path for commercial and private transportation, a source of food and energy, and perhaps most importantly for many living in the tri-state area as a destination for recreation and relaxation. The most overlooked feature of the river is how the wildlife shows clear signs of a changing climate and rapid environmental response to the impacts of global warming on the river.

Entire populations of fish species in the lower Hudson have been forced to leave the river …

Sea Surface Temperature Rises Shift Migration Patterns Due To Ecosystem Changes, Alexia Skrbic, Hesham El-Askary

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

The continuing climate change is negatively impacting ecosystems, specifically oceans which are declining and food webs are being altered by the increase of greenhouse gases. The increase of the carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is increasing sea surface temperature of the world’s oceans. Certain organisms lower on the food chain like phytoplankton and zooplankton are directly affected by the warming which alters how they process nutrients and their productivity. The limited amount of these primary producers in the oceans and specifically the location they inhabit directly affects all the organisms above them on the food chain. Several marine animals …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2016, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought Conditions

Large Fires Impact Region

Heavy Rains Bring Flooding to Montana

Isolated Impacts to Agriculture

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Modern Fair-Weather And Storm Sediment Transport Around Ship Island, Mississippi: Implications For Coastal Habitats And Restoration Efforts, Eve Rettew Eisemann

Master's Theses

The Mississippi – Alabama barrier island chain is experiencing accelerated sea level rise, decreased sediment supply, and frequent hurricane impacts. These three factors drive unprecedented rates of morphology change and ecosystem reduction. All islands in the chain have experienced land loss on the order of hectares per year since records began in the 1840s. In 1969, Hurricane Camille impacted as a Category 5, breaching Ship Island, and significantly reduced viable seagrass habitat. Hurricane Katrina impacted as a Category 3 in 2005, further widening Camille Cut. To better understand the sustainability of these important islands and the ecosystems they support, sediment …

Teleconnections In Steam: Antarctic Field-Camp Art, Craig Stevens, Gabby O'Connor

The Transdisciplinary STEAM+ Journal

We describe a component of a multi-element STEAM collaboration looking to explore ideas around the life cycle of Antarctic sea ice. One of the intermediate phases of the work involved the scientist deploying partially pre-made art components. Results were modulated by weather and operational constraints and generated a sequence of images and recordings as well as greater understanding of the creative collaboration process.

Analysis Of Aerosol Absorption Properties And Transport Over North Africa And The Middle East Using Aeronet Data, Ashraf Farahat, Hesham El-Askary, Peter Adetokunbo, Abu-Tharr Fuad

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

In this paper particle categorization and absorption properties were discussed to understand transport mechanisms at different geographic locations and possible radiative impacts on climate. The long-term Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data set (1999–2015) is used to estimate aerosol optical depth (AOD), single scattering albedo (SSA), and the absorption Ångström exponent (abs) at eight locations in North Africa and the Middle East. Average variation in SSA is calculated at four wavelengths (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm), and the relationship between aerosol absorption and physical properties is used to infer dominant aerosol types at different locations. It was found that seasonality …

Identifying Groundwater - Dependent Wetlands Of The Broome Sandstone Aquifer In The La Grange Groundwater Area, Nicholas Wright, Richard J. George Dr, Robert Paul, Paul Raper

Resource management technical reports

This report identifies wetlands that are likely to be dependent on the Broome Sandstone aquifer within the La Grange groundwater allocation area. The Broome Sandstone aquifer is the dominant groundwater resource in the area. With potential agricultural growth of this area, it is necessary to understand, monitor and manage the aquifer and its dependent wetlands. This report describes how we created a watertable surface that was used to identify wetlands and to determine which of the previously mapped wetlands are likely to be sourced from the Broome Sandstone aquifer. A watertable surface was created from 148 points taken from bore …

Managing Drought Risk In A Changing Climate, Donald A. Wilhite

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

There is an increasing concern worldwide regarding the ineffectiveness of current drought management practices that are based largely on crisis management. These practices are reactive and, therefore, only treat the symptoms (impacts) of drought rather than the underlying causes of the vulnerabilities associated with impacts. More effective drought management requires a shift in the paradigm from drought response to a drought risk management approach.

Using Climate Information For Drought Planning, Taryn Finnessey, Michael Hayes, Jeff Lukas, Mark D. Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Historically, drought has been responded to rather than prepared for, yet studies have illustrated that proactive investment in drought risk management reduces impacts and overall response costs. One key element of preparedness is the use of sufficient climate information for monitoring, forecasting, and tracking long-term trends. In the face of a changing climate and increasing variability, these types of data are even more critical for planning and overall resiliency. The systematic use of these data to inform the drought planning component of drought risk management is a relatively recent development. Actionable science has direct applicability for planning and decision-making, and …

Seasonal Temperature Variations Controlling Cave Ventilation Processes In Cueva Larga, Puerto Rico, Rolf Vieten, Amos Winter, Sophie Friederike Warken, Andrea Schrӧder-Ritzrau, Thomas E. Miller, Denis Scholz

International Journal of Speleology

Two years of cave monitoring investigate ventilation processes in Cueva Larga, a tropical cave in Puerto Rico. The cave is 1,440 m long with a large main passage (about 120,000 m³). Cave air pCO₂ in the main passage varies seasonally, between 600 ppm in winter and 1,800 ppm in summer. The seasonal variability in cave pCO₂ permits the estimation of a cave air exchange time of 36 ± 5 days and a winter ventilation rate of 3,300 ± 1,000 m³/day for the main cave passage. Calculations of virtual temperature and differences between cave and …

Coral Disease In Chumbe Island Coral Park: A Baseline Survey Of The Prevalence Of Coral Disease And Other Afflictions Within Chumbe Marine Protected Area, Hannah Turley

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Coral mortality from disease and other afflictions is a rising concern for reefs around the world. The aim of this study was to provide to a baseline for the prevalence of coral disease and other afflictions, which indicate compromised coral health, in Chumbe Island Coral Park, Zanzibar, Tanzania. Chumbe's reef experienced a widespread bleaching event earlier this year and this baseline study will provide a starting point to see how the bleaching event affected the prevalence of disease and other afflictions within the reef. A baseline study will also allow the park to investigate if their current monitoring procedures are …

Fish Diversity And Coral Health Of Tanzania's Reefs: A Comparative Study Between The Ushongo Village Reef And The Fungu Zinga Reef Over Time, Della Turque, Corinne Casper

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

The world’s oceans are becoming increasing acidic due to global climate change, posing a threat to marine ecosystems, including coral carbonate systems. Environmental threats are exacerbated by human development stressors as well: growing populations, dependency on marine resources, and unsustainable practices invaluable marine ecosystems at risk. Tanzania’s coral reef system extends for 3580 km2 (Muhando et al. 2008) near the Tanga region, serving over half a million people who are highly dependent on fishing and other marine resources as their livelihoods (Samoilys et. al. 2008). With Tanzania’s population rapidly growing, the unsustainable pressure on coral reefs for sustenance and livelihood …