Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Probit Models For Capture-Recapture Data Subject To Imperfect Detection, Individual Heterogeneity And Misidentification1, Brett T. Mcclintock, Larissa L. Bailey, Brian P. Dreher, William A. Link

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

As noninvasive sampling techniques for animal populations have become more popular, there has been increasing interest in the development of capture-recapture models that can accommodate both imperfect detection and misidentification of individuals (e.g., due to genotyping error). However, current methods do not allow for individual variation in parameters, such as detection or survival probability. Here we develop misidentification models for capture-recapture data that can simultaneously account for temporal variation, behavioral effects and individual heterogeneity in parameters. To facilitate Bayesian inference using our approach, we extended standard probit regression techniques to latent multinomial models where the dimension and zeros of the …

Loess Records, Daniel R. Muhs, Stephen R. Cattle, Onn Crouvi, Denis-Didier Rousseau, Jimin Sun, Marcelo A. Zárate

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Loess is aeolian sediment, dominated by silt-sized particles, that is identifiable in the field as a distinct sedimentary body. It covers a significant portion of the land surface of the Earth and as such constitutes one of the most important archives of long-term dust deposition. Large tracts of loess cover Europe, Asia, South America, and North America, and smaller loess bodies are found covering parts of Africa, the Middle East, New Zealand, and Australia. Loess thickness, particle size, and carbonate content decrease downwind from sources, trends that are powerful tools for reconstructing paleowinds. Many loess sections consist of relatively thick …

Evidence Of Repeated Wildfires Prior To Human Occupation On San Nicolas Island, California, Jeffrey S. Pigati, John P. Mcgeehin, Gary L. Skipp, Daniel R. Muhs

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Understanding how early humans on the California Channel Islands might have changed local fire regimes requires a baseline knowledge of the frequency of natural wildfires on the islands prior to human occupation. A sedimentary sequence that was recently discovered in a small canyon on San Nicolas Island contains evidence of at least 24 burn events that date to between ~37 and 25 ka (thousands of calibrated ¹⁴C years before present), well before humans entered North America. The evidence includes abundant macroscopic charcoal, blackened sediments, and discrete packages of oxidized, reddish-brown sediments that are similar in appearance to sedimentary features …

Two-Source Energy Balance Model To Calculate E, T, And Et: Comparison Of Priestley-Taylor And Penman-Monteith Formulations And Two Time Scaling Methods, Paul D. Colaizzi, Nurit Agam, Judy A. Tolk, Steven R. Evett, Terry A. Howell, Prasanna H. Gowda, Susan A. O'Shaughnessy, William P. Kustas, Martha C. Anderson

United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service / University of Nebraska-Lincoln: Faculty Publications

The two-source energy balance (TSEB) model calculates the energy balance of the soil-canopy-atmosphere continuum, where transpiration is initially determined by the Priestley-Taylor equation. The TSEB was revised recently using the Penman-Monteith equation to replace the Priestley-Taylor formulation, thus better accounting for the impact of large and varying vapor pressure deficits (VPD) typical of advective, semiarid climates. This study is a comparison of the Priestley- Taylor and Penman-Monteith versions of the TSEB (termed TSEB-PT and TSEB-PM, respectively). Evaporation (E), transpiration (T), and evapotranspiration (ET) calculated by the TSEB-PT and TSEB-PM versions were compared to measurements obtained with microlysimeters, sap flow gauges, …

Did A Submarine Landslide Contribute To The 2011 Tohoku Tsunami?, David R. Tappin, Stephan T. Grilli, Jeffrey C. Harris, Robert J. Geller, Timothy Masterlark, James T. Kirby, Fengyan Shi, Gangfeng Ma, K.K.S. Thingbaijam, P. Martin Mai

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Many studies have modeled the Tohoku tsunami of March 11, 2011 as being due entirely to slip on an earthquake fault, but the following discrepancies suggest that further research is warranted. (1) Published models of tsunami propagation and coastal impact underpredict the observed runup heights of up to 40. m measured along the coast of the Sanriku district in the northeast part of Honshu Island. (2) Published models cannot reproduce the timing and high-frequency content of tsunami waves recorded at three nearshore buoys off Sanriku, nor the timing and dispersion properties of the waveforms at offshore DART buoy #21418. (3) …

Assessing Optimal Set Of Implemental Physical Parameterization Schemes In A Multi-Physics Land Surface Model Using Genetic Algorithm, S. Hong, X. Yu, S. K. Park, Y.-S. Choi, Boksoon Myoung

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Optimization of land surface models has been challenging due to the model complexity and uncertainty. In this study, we performed scheme-based model optimizations by designing a framework for coupling "the micro-genetic algorithm" (micro-GA) and "the Noah land surface model with multiple physics options" (Noah-MP). Micro-GA controls the scheme selections among eight different land surface parameterization categories, each containing 2–4 schemes, in Noah-MP in order to extract the optimal scheme combination that achieves the best skill score. This coupling framework was successfully applied to the optimizations of evapotranspiration and runoff simulations in terms of surface water balance over the Han River …

Numerical Simulation Of “An American Haboob”, A. Vukovic, M. Vujadinovic, G. Pejanovic, J. Andric, M. J. Kumjian, V. Djurdjevic, M. Dacic, Anup K. Prasad, Hesham El-Askary, B. C. Paris, S. Petkovic, W. Sprigg, S. Nickovic

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

A dust storm of fearful proportions hit Phoenix in the early evening hours of 5 July 2011. This storm, an American haboob, was predicted hours in advance because numerical, land–atmosphere modeling, computing power and remote sensing of dust events have improved greatly over the past decade. High-resolution numerical models are required for accurate simulation of the small scales of the haboob process, with high velocity surface winds produced by strong convection and severe downbursts. Dust productive areas in this region consist mainly of agricultural fields, with soil surfaces disturbed by plowing and tracks of land in the high Sonoran Desert …

Metr 341: Synoptic Meteorology—A Peer Review Of Teaching Project Inquiry Project, Matthew S. Van Den Broeke

UNL Faculty Course Portfolios

Synoptic meteorology is foundational to atmospheric science, and it is critical that students strengthen their ability to think critically and independently in this course. Anecdotal evidence from teaching similar courses, and from education literature in the physical sciences, has pointed to the value of problem solving using data from real events. This inquiry project allowed further investigation of optimal instructional methods for this particular course, and led to the qualitative and partially quantified conclusion that hands-on in-class activities seem to support the most significant learning gains. In addition, this project led to the conclusion that a high degree of peer …

Wetlands And Greenhouse Gas Fluxes: Causes And Effects Of Climate Change – A Meta-Analysis, Robert E. Ventura

Pomona Senior Theses

Climate change is one of the largest problems facing this generation. Anthropogenically caused increases of greenhouse gas emissions is a significant culprit to this problem. Although the obvious problems such as cars, industry, and urbanism garnish a significant amount of the criticism, natural sources such as wetlands are also beginning to contribute to this issue. This is becoming increasingly significant as wetlands shift from being sinks of greenhouse gases to becoming sources as various anthropogenic impacts, including global warming itself, begin to affect the health of the wetlands. The aim of this project is to look at four common types …

Wave Transformation At A Saltmarsh Edge And Resulting Marsh Edge Erosion: Observations And Modeling, Kevin J. Trosclair

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

This study examines wind generated waves during winter storms, their transformation/attenuation near the marsh edge, and the resulting saltmarsh edge erosion. A simple numerical model for wave generation, transmission and marsh edge erosion was developed and validated against observations from Lake Borgne, Louisiana. Results suggest that meteorological conditions modify the local water depth via wind or wave setup and atmospheric pressure, thus exerting a first order control on the location of wave attack, which in turn determines the type of wave forces (shear vs. impact) that dominate the erosion process. Scarp failure follows, at a location determined by water level, …

Marine Diatom Assemblage Variation Across Pleistocene Glacial–Interglacial Transitions And Neogene Diatom Biostratigraphy Of Site C9001, Nw Pacific Ocean, Marcella K. Purkey

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

In 2006, D/V-Chikyu cruise CK06-06 drilled Hole C9001C at Site C9001 in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, 80 km east of the Shimokita Peninsula, Japan. An existing chronostratigraphic framework provides a continuous glacial-interglacial (GI) climate record from which a diatom record of paleoenvironmental changes was developed across several GI cycles. Species counts, diatom temperature values, calculated sea-surface temperatures (SST) and factor analysis were produced for each sample and calibrated to prior diatom studies in this region. These features were used to characterize and compare interglacial maxima of Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 1, 5e, 9 and 11 and transitions from the preceding …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2013, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Soil Moisture

September Flooding in Colorado

Early October Blizzard

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Biome Q10 And Dryness, Chuixiang Yi, Daniel Ricciuto, George Hendrey

Publications and Research

Temperature sensitivity of soil respiration (Q₁₀) is a critical parameter in carbon cycle models with important implications for climate-carbon feedbacks in the 21st century. The common assumption of a constant Q₁₀, usually with a value of 2.0, was shown to be invalid by a previous model-data fusion study that reported biome-specific values of this parameter. We extend the previous analysis by demonstrating that these biome-level values of Q₁₀ also are a function of dryness (R² = 0.54). When tundra and cultivated lands are excluded, the correlation is much stronger (R² = 0.92). Therefore …

Impacts Of Climate Changes On The Spatiotemporal Distribution Of Precipitation In The Western United States, Peng Jiang

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Precipitation in the Intermountain West is characterized by its great variability in both spatial and temporal distributions. Moreover, the spatiotemporal distribution of the precipitation is changing due to the climate changes. In this dissertation, three studies are conducted to investigate the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation, the performance of current climate models on this variability, the influence of large-scale ocean oscillations on heavy precipitation, and the impact of human induced global warming on storm properties.

The first study is to examine the performance of current climate models on the simulation of the multi-scale temporal variability determined from the observed station …

Kinetic Fractionation Of Gases By Deep Air Convection In Polar Firn, K. Kawamura, J. P. Severinghaus, M. R. Albert, Z. R. Courville

Dartmouth Scholarship

A previously unrecognized type of gas fractiona- tion occurs in firn air columns subjected to intense convec- tion. It is a form of kinetic fractionation that depends on the fact that different gases have different molecular diffusivi- ties. Convective mixing continually disturbs diffusive equi- librium, and gases diffuse back toward diffusive equilibrium under the influence of gravity and thermal gradients. In near- surface firn where convection and diffusion compete as gas transport mechanisms, slow-diffusing gases such as krypton (Kr) and xenon (Xe) are more heavily impacted by convec- tion than fast diffusing gases such as nitrogen (N2) and ar- gon …

Stable Isotope And Modelling Evidence For Co2 As A Driver Of Glacial-Interglacial Vegetation Shifts In Southern Africa, F. J. Bragg, I. C. Prentice, S. P. Harrison, G. Eglinton, P. N. Foster

Dartmouth Scholarship

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is hypothesized to influence vegetation distribution via tree-grass competition, with higher CO2 concentrations favouring trees. The stable carbon isotope (delta C-13) signature of vegetation is influenced by the relative importance of C-4 plants (including most tropical grasses) and C-3 plants (including nearly all trees), and the degree of stomatal closure - a response to aridity in C-3 plants. Compound-specific delta C-13 analyses of leaf-wax biomarkers in sediment cores of an offshore South Atlantic transect are used here as a record of vegetation changes in subequatorial Africa. These data suggest a large increase in C3 relative to C4 …

Assessing The Performance Of A Northern Gulf Of Mexico Tidal Model Using Satellite Imagery, Stephen C. Medeiros, Scott C. Hagen, Naira Chaouch, Jesse Feyen, Marouane Temimi, John F. Weishampel, Yuji Funakoshi, Reza Khanbilvardi

Publications and Research

Tidal harmonic analysis simulations along with simulations spanning four specific historical time periods in 2003 and 2004 were conducted to test the performance of a northern Gulf of Mexico tidal model. A recently developed method for detecting inundated areas based on integrated remotely sensed data (i.e., Radarsat-1, aerial imagery, LiDAR, Landsat 7 ETM+) was applied to assess the performance of the tidal model. The analysis demonstrates the applicability of the method and its agreement with traditional performance assessment techniques such as harmonic resynthesis and water level time series analysis. Based on the flooded/non-flooded coastal areas estimated by the integrated remotely …

The Tornado Warning Process: A Review Of Current Research, Challenges, And Opportunities, Jerry Brotzge, William Donner

Sociology Faculty Publications

With the unusually violent tornado season of 2011, there has been a renewed national interest, through such programs as NOAA's Weather Ready Nation initiative, to reevaluate and improve our tornado warning process. This literature review provides an interdisciplinary, end-to-end examination of the tornado warning process. Following the steps outlined by the Integrated Warning System, current research in tornado prediction and detection, the warning decision process, warning dissemination, and public response are reviewed, and some of the major challenges for improving each stage are highlighted. The progress and challenges in multi-day to short-term tornado prediction are discussed, followed by an examination …

Examining The Relationship Between Drought Development And Rapid Changes In The Evaporative Stress Index, Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Mark D. Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In this study, the ability of a new drought metric based on thermal infrared remote sensing imagery to provide early warning of an elevated risk for drought intensification is assessed. This new metric, called the rapid change index (RCI), is designed to highlight areas undergoing rapid changes in moisture stress as inferred from weekly changes in the evaporative stress index (ESI) generated using the Atmosphere–Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) surface energy balance model. Two case study analyses across the central United States revealed that the initial appearance of negative RCI values indicative of rapid increases in moisture stress preceded the introduction …

Environmental Factors Influencing Diatom Communities In Antarctic Cryoconite Holes, Lee F. Stanish, Elizabeth A. Bagshaw, Diane M. Mcknight, Andrew G. Fountain, Martyn Tranter

Geology Faculty Publications and Presentations

Cryoconite holes are ice-bound habitats that can act as refuges for aquatic and terrestrial microorganisms on glacier surfaces. In the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica, these holes are often capped by an ice lid that prevents the exchange of material and gases with the surrounding atmosphere and aquatic environment. Diatoms have been documented in cryoconite holes, and recent findings suggest that these habitats may harbour a distinctive diatom flora compared to the surrounding aquatic environments. In this study, we examined diatom community composition in cryoconite holes and environmental correlates across three glaciers in Taylor Valley, Antarctica. The diatom communities were …

A Detailed Seabed Signature From Hurricane Sandy Revealed In Bedforms And Scour, Arthur Trembanis, Carter Duval, Jonathan Beaudoin, Val E. Schmidt, Doug Miller, Larry A. Mayer

Center for Coastal and Ocean Mapping

On 30 October 2012, Hurricane Sandy made landfall near Brigantine New Jersey bringing widespread erosion and damage to the coastline. We have obtained a unique set of high-resolution before and after storm measurements of seabed morphology and in situhydrodynamic conditions (waves and currents) capturing the impact of the storm at an inner continental shelf field site known as the “Redbird reef”. Understanding the signature of this storm event is important for identifying the impacts of such events and for understanding the role that such events have in the transport of sediment and marine debris on the inner continental shelf. …

Droughtscape, Fall 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Kansas community drought planning workshop November 5

Drought impacts webinars

Drought outlook and summary

Late summer drought brings more agricultural impacts

Plans help ranchers weather drought

NDMC contributions to U2U project

Drought Management Database archives strategies

QuickDRI will help spot flash droughts

NDMC Co-Hosts NASA workshop

Wilhite leads Integrated Drought Management Program work

Speaking of drought

Managing #Drought tweet chat transcript

Updated USDM website

Phosphorus Cycling In Tropical Carbonate Sediment-Seagrass Systems, Zachary Howerton

OES Theses and Dissertations

This thesis presents two studies focusing on phosphorus cycling in calcium carbonate sediments inhabited by seagrasses. Phosphorus is a major limiting nutrient for primary productivity in these sediments as well as in the overlying waters. In large part this is due to removal of phosphate from solution by adsorption and precipitation reactions.

In chapter II, the relationship between the size of the sedimentary phosphorus pool and the abundance of seagrass on the Great Bahama Bank, as well as the relationship between phosphorus content and grain size in the sediments, were examined to better understand the biogeochemistry of carbonate sediments and …

Incorporating Satellite Derived Cloud Climatologies To Improve High Resolution Interpolation Of Daily Precipitation., Adam M. Wilson, Benoit Parmentier, Brian Mcgill, Rob Guralnick, Walter Jetz

Yale Day of Data

Conservation of biodiversity demands comprehension of evolutionary and ecological patterns and processes that occur over vast spatial and temporal scales. A central goal of ecology is to understand the factors that control the spatial distribution of species and this has become even more important in the face of climate change. However, at global scales there can be enormous uncertainty in environmental data used to model species distributions. Even ‘simple’ metrics such as mean annual precipitation are difficult to estimate in areas with few weather stations and available data sets do not quantify uncertainty in these surfaces. We are developing a …

Scavenging, Cycling And Removal Fluxes Of 210Po And 210Pb At The Bermuda Time-Series Study Site, G. H. Hong, M. Baskaran, T. M. Church, M. Conte

Environmental Science and Geology Faculty Research Publications

Quantifying relative affinities of Po and Pb in different populations of marine particulate matter is of great importance in utilizing ²¹⁰Po as a tracer for carbon cycling. We collected and analyzed water samples for the concentrations of dissolved and total ²¹⁰Po and ²¹⁰Pb from the upper 600 m of the water column at Bermuda Time-series Study site (September 1999 to September 2000) to investigate their seasonality of concentrations and their ac-tivity ratio (²¹⁰Po/²¹⁰Pb activity ratio, AR). Sinking particles collected in sediment traps at depths of 500 m, 1500 m, and 3200 m from …

The Influence Of Soil Organic Matter Stabilization Mechanisms On Carbon Mean Residence Time Within Various Ecosystems In The United States, Vicky Lynn Giese, Kate Heckman Phd

STAR Program Research Presentations

Some terrestrial ecosystems and soils serve as carbon sinks, partially offsetting rising atmospheric CO₂ levels. Physiochemical mechanisms of soil organic matter (SOM) stabilization affect how carbon stocks respond to global warming. In order to clarify the variance in SOM stabilization mechanisms across different soil types, SOM abundance, distribution and mean residence time (MRT) were compared for thirty-two soil samples from six ecosystems across the United States. Soils were previously described, collected and archived by the United States Geological Survey. Samples were processed by LLNL at the Center for Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (CAMS) using density fractionation to separate particulate organics …

Climate Change On The Prairie: A Basic Guide To Climate Change In The High Plains Region - Update, Lincoln, Ne

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Global Climate Change

Climate Change in the United States

Historical Climate Trends in the High Plains Region

Historical Climate Trends in the High Plains Region

High Plains Region Update: 2010-2012

New Tool: Climate Impact Reporter

Climate Change Projections and Possible Impacts

Climate Change Projections and Possible Impacts

Systematics, Climate, And Ecology Of Fossil And Extant Nyssa (Nyssaceae, Cornales) And Implications Of Nyssa Grayensis Sp. Nov. From The Gray Fossil Site, Northeast Tennessee, Nathan R. Noll

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The Late Hemphillian (latest Miocene or earliest Pliocene, 7-4.5 Ma) Gray Fossil Site in northeastern Tennessee is interpreted to represent a lacustrine paleokarst fed by a river or stream. This research focuses on the morphological and systematic relations of Nyssa endocarps (fruit pits) from the fossil site to extinct and extant Nyssa species. A combination of metric and nonmetric traits allows recognition of a new species: Nyssa grayensis sp. nov. This fossil species shares the most similarities with the extant Nyssa ogeche Bartram ex Marshall from southeast North America and the Eocene fossil Nyssa eolignitica Berry from western Tennessee. Affinities …

Droughtscape, Summer 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

July 25 webinar: Drought management database, NIDIS update

Republican River Basin workshops July 31, August 1

Summer climate outlook, spring summary

Spring impacts: wildfire, water, agriculture and business

Data help managers assess Nebraska groundwater declines after drought of 2012

Tadesse helps Mexico with Veg-DRI concept

Visiting scholar explores remote sensing of drought in forests

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum photo recap, details online

Workshop helps New Mexico ranchers cope with drought

Alabama’s new drought plan

National Drought Forum report

Drought Impacts Community of Practice report

Glacier Change In The North Cascades, Washington: 1900-2009, Kristina Amanda Dick

Dissertations and Theses

Glaciers respond to local climate changes making them important indicators of regional climate change. The North Cascades region of Washington is the most glaciated region in the lower-48 states with approximately 25% of all glaciers and 40% of the total ice-covered area. While there are many on-going investigations of specific glaciers, little research has addressed the entire glacier cover of the region. A reference inventory of glaciers was derived from a comparison of two different inventories dating to about 1958. The different inventories agree within 93% of total number of glaciers and 94% of total ice-covered area. To quantify glacier …