Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Farm Profit Impacts Of Consecutive Drought Years Under Climate Scenarios In Southwestern Australia, Sud Kharel, Kevin J. Foster, Meredith M. Guthrie, Ross Kingwell

Climate Science Research Articles

Climate projections for southern Australia indicate an increased likelihood of years of consecutive droughts. How resilient are farm businesses and their farming systems to recover from episodic drought? This study assesses the farm economic and financial impacts of consecutive droughts in southwest Australia. Bioeconomic simulation modelling of farm businesses with different farming systems at three locations is used to examine the long-term financial consequences of consecutive droughts. Various key factors affecting those consequences are examined. Farm location, farming system and starting equity are found to be the main determinants of how quickly a farm business can financially recover from the …

The Future Of Shipping At The Biodiversity-Climate Nexus : Round Table Report, Mary S. Wisz, Fabio Berzaghi, Mikaela Gomez, Maud C. Quinzin, Renis Auma Ojwala, Emily Nuckolls

Reports

This report presents the outcomes of a cross-disciplinary Round Table hosted by the World Maritime University (WMU) from May 13-15, 2024, in Malmö, Sweden. The event brought together 51 experts from academia, industry, NGOs, and international organizations, including the IMO, to explore shipping’s role at the biodiversity-climate nexus. The Round Table had a particular focus on the impacts of shipping that are currently unregulated or under-regulated, and opportunities to address biodiversity loss and pollution as the sector decarbonizes. The report highlights the need to apply comprehensive, ecosystem-based approaches to effectively manage shipping's impacts, including cumulative impacts, on the environment, people, …

Topographic Forcing Of Submesoscale Instability In The Antarctic Circumpolar Current, Laur Ferris, Donglai Gong, John Klinck

CCPO Publications

Subpolar frontal zones are characterized by energetic storms, intense seasonal cycles, and close connectivity with surrounding continental shelf topography. At the same time, predicting the ocean state depends on appropriate partition of resolved and parameterized dynamics, the latter of which requires understanding the dynamical processes generating diffusivity throughout the water column. While submesoscale frontal instabilities are shown to produce turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and mixing in the surface boundary layer (SBL) of the global ocean, their development in complex dynamical regimes (e.g., elevated preexisting turbulence, large ageostrophic shear, or in proximity to topographic boundaries) is less understood. This study investigates …

The Strategic And Governance Implications Of Solar Radiation Modification: Perspectives From Delegates Of International Climate Negotiations, Todd L. Cherry, Steffen Kallbekken, David M. Mcevoy, Wai Yan Siu

ODU Articles

The lack of progress in addressing climate change has led to increased interest in solar radiation modification (SRM)—a collection of large-scale interventions that cool the planet by managing the amount of solar radiation that reaches the earth. SRM complicates climate change governance because, in addition to advancing collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, governance needs to restrain unilateral SRM action while balancing diverging actor interests, ethical risks and scientific uncertainty. We survey international climate policy experts for their assessments of the potential for effective global governance of SRM and the likelihood of possible international responses to unilateral SRM scenarios. …

Coastal Flooding And Housing Market Liquidity: Policy Implications For Eastern U. S. Communities, Wai Yan Siu, Rex Sitti

ODU Articles

Coastal flooding poses an escalating threat to communities across the U.S East Coast, where rising sea levels and intensifying storms increasingly overwhelm existing infrastructure and natural defenses. These events generate complex economic consequences that extend beyond immediate property damage to affect community stability and long-term development patterns. The real estate industry in particular, faces increasing levels of flood risk. Existing research on climate risk and real estate markets focuses predominantly on price capitalization effects, overlooking the critical dimension of housing market liquidity. This study examines the causal impact of coastal flooding on days-on-market (DOM), a metric of liquidity in the …

Evaluating The Long-Term Effectiveness Of Marsh Terracing For Conservation With Integrated Geospatial And Wetland Simulation Modeling, Nick Carpenter, Laura Costadone, Thomas R. Allen

ODU Articles

Coastal marshes provide essential ecosystem services, yet they are vulnerable to anthropogenic stressors and climate change, particularly sea level rise (SLR). Restoration approaches like marsh terracing have emerged as nature-based strategies to enhance resilience and reduce habitat loss. This study applies the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) to assess the potential of marsh terraces to mitigate future losses, while also examining the model’s limitations, including its assumptions and capacity to reflect complex marsh processes. A geospatial approach was used to generate 3D representations of terraces through morphostatic modeling within digital elevation models (DEMs). Under a no-restoration scenario, SLAMM projections …

High-Resolution Modeling Of Extreme Heat Events With Socioeconomic Consideration: A Real-Case Wrf-Les Approach, Maryam Golbazi, Frank Liu, Yin-Hsuen Chen, Timothy W. Juliano, Heather Richter

ODU Articles

The overarching goals of this work is to explore best practices for micro-scale modeling of a real case, identify relevant phenomena by using high-resolution modeling, and to explore their implications for public health, and climate resilience strategies in Hampton Roads, VA, USA. This project employs the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to conduct a comprehensive study of Hampton Roads, utilizing a coupled mesoscale to microscale modeling capable of resolving boundary layer turbulence. This study has three primary objectives: (1) to establish the optimal mesoscale to Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) configurations for complex geographical regions such as the Hampton Roads (HR) …

Analyzing Seasonal Wind Trends And Climate Change Impacts Along The East Coast Of The United States (1990-2022), Avery L. Wilson

Honors Theses and Capstones

This study investigates long-term trends in ocean wind intensity and variability along the U.S. East Coast between 1990 and 2022 using ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data. Focusing on monthly maximum, mean, and standard deviation (STD) of wind speed at 10 meters above the surface, linear regressions were performed to analyze long-term trends. Results indicate a significant increase in wind intensity and variability in the northeastern region, particularly during winter months, which may forecast more frequent and intense cyclonic activity such as Nor’easters. Conversely, a weak decreasing trend was observed in the south. These shifts have implications for ocean-atmosphere dynamics, including vertical …

Numerical Modeling Study Of Coastal Impacts From Extreme Storms And Sea Level Rise In Southern New England, Deborah Crowley

Open Access Dissertations

Coastal areas in southern New England are vulnerable to a range of impacts from extreme storms and sea level rise. The most frequent extreme storms are extratropical storms, commonly referred to as nor’easters, named for the direction of the strongest winds, though these storms also have strong winds from other directions.

Storm winds generate large waves and push water up along the coast in the form of storm surge. The combined impacts of increased water levels and waves include flooding and morphological change. Sea level rise (SLR) will exacerbate these processes, amplifying the associated impacts, which may pose increasing threats …

Surface Currents In The Mid-Atlantic Bight: The Role Of The Gulf Stream Versus Wind, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Surface currents of the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) were studied using high frequency radar (HFR) observations at 6 km resolution during a five-year period (2020-2024). The study's focus on the role of the Gulf Stream (GS) contrasts with most past studies that focused on the seasonal wind-driven currents. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses of the daily HFR currents were conducted with and without the GS, revealing modes of current variability linked to the seasonal wind pattern and storms versus modes linked to GS variability. The remote impact of the GS on coastal currents is complex, with different impacts seen on different …

Multi-Model Estimate Of Antarctic Ice-Shelf Basal Mass Budget And Ocean Drivers, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Richard Porter-Smith, Sue Cook, Eva Cougnon, David E. Gwyther, Wilma G. C. Huneke, Madelaine G. Rosevear, Xylar Asay-Davis, Fabio Boeira Dias, Michael S. Dinniman, David Holland, Kazuya Kusahara, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Keith W. Nicholls, Charles Pelletier, Ole Richter, Hélène Seroussi, Ralph Timmerman

CCPO Publications

Societal adaptation to rising sea levels requires robust projections of the Antarctic Ice Sheet's retreat, particularly due to ocean-driven basal melting of its fringing ice shelves. Recent advances in ocean models that simulate ice-shelf melting offer an opportunity to reduce uncertainties in ice–ocean interactions. Here, we compare several community-contributed, circum-Antarctic ocean simulations to highlight inter-model differences, evaluate agreement with satellite-derived melt rates, and examine underlying physical processes. All but one simulation use a melting formulation depending on both thermal driving (T^⋆) and friction velocity (u^⋆), which together represent the thermal and ocean current forcings at the …

Mangroves: A Lesson On Modeling Changing Shorelines, Willa Skye

ENGS 15.11: Design and Education

This lesson is an overview of storm barriers, specifically mangroves and how they maintain shorelines. It is meant to offer a visual experience of coastline protection and provide a background for deeper understanding about intertidal zones and their conservation. Students will spend time creating a solution to a flooding problem by making a mock coast and storm barrier. To wrap-up the lesson, students will pair up, then reflect on their model and then individually write or draw their takeaways.

The First Iucn Red List Of Cold-Water Corals Highlights Global Declines, Julia D. Sigwart, A. Louise Allcock, Renata Carolina Mikosz Arantes, Kelsey Archer Barnhill, Narissa Bax, Julia S. Beneti, Saskia Brix, Gudmundur Gudmundsson, Catherine S. Mcfadden, Severin A. Korfhage, Christi Linardich, Declan Morrissey, Pedro De Oliveira Nascimento, Bárbara De Moura Neves, Steinunn H. Ólafsdóttir, Stefán Ragnarsson, Kaveh Samimi-Namin, Íris Sampaio, Mark E. De Wilt

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

The most well-known species-based conservation tool is the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species. The current coverage of species in the Red List is known to under-represent benthic marine species. Cold-water corals (CWCs) are increasingly recognised as key to deep-water biodiversity and integral to protected vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs), but no deep-sea coral species were previously included in the Red List. We selected 22 cold-water coral species in the Northeast Atlantic, including 4 reef-forming stony corals and 18 octocorals including sea pens and gorgonians, and completed the first IUCN Red List global assessments …

Thermal Tolerance Limits Of Mesophotic Corals In American Samoa, Daniel Barshis, Veronica Z. Radice, Katherine E. Parker, Nicholas Evensen

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

We analyzed the thermal tolerances of multiple coral species from an upper mesophotic (38–40m) and a shallow reef (5–10m) with our portable Coral Bleaching Automated Stress System (CBASS). Depth generalist Montipora grisea (deep and shallow) and depth specialists Pachyseris speciosa and Leptoseris sp. (deep only) were assayed from Leone, located on the western coast of Tutuila in American Samoa. Fragments from 10 genotypes of each species were exposed to a 17-hour thermal stress assay reaching four maximum temperatures ranging from 30–38°C under in situ light conditions (150 μmol photons m⁻² s⁻¹ under a Lee Filters “deep …

An Economic And Production Analysis Of Seaweed Farms In California And The Pacific Northwest, Brian Donovan

Cal Poly Humboldt theses and projects

Since the early 2010s, the seaweed aquaculture industry has steadily expanded in the United States, with states like Alaska, Maine, Hawaii, and Connecticut leading the way in the development of this emerging sector. However, information gaps remain concerning certain aspects of the domestic seaweed aquaculture industry. The purpose of this study was to examine the status of the seaweed aquaculture industry along the West Coast of the United States; specifically in the states of California, Oregon, and Washington. Seaweed farmers in these states were invited to voluntarily complete surveys asking important production, economic, and commercial questions regarding their operations. Data …

Modeling The Impact Of Climate Change On Plant Hardiness Zones Across The Contiguous United States Using Empirical Bayesian Kriging Regression Prediction, Daniel Donkor

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

Mapping plant hardiness zones is crucial to understanding and predicting the spatial distribution of plants in response to climatic conditions. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) developed the plant hardiness zones based on the average of annual extreme minimum temperatures using the Parameter elevation Regression on Independent Slope Model (PRISM). While the USDA’s 2012 and 2023 Plant Hardiness Zone maps remain standard references, they offer limited geostatistical transparency that causes more complications in replicating. This study applies Empirical Bayesian Kriging Regression Prediction (EBKRP) method to generate Plant Hardiness Zone maps, analyze spatial and temporal shifts in the plant hardiness …

Evaluation Of Practical Methods To Determine If A Karst Creek Is Gaining Or Losing: Case Study Of Leith Creek, Elizabeth Jones

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

Karst landscapes are abundant in Missouri, with features such as caves, springs, and sinkholes that form through the dissolution of limestone. Leith Creek is a small stream in Polk County, Missouri fed by two springs and the shallow unconfined Springfield Plateau aquifer, a highly karstified aquifer which is made up of limestone and minor interbedded shale-mudstone units. To determine if Leith Creek is gaining or losing, stream flow, water chemistry and temperature sensors were monitored. Stream flow results required multiple visits to take measurements while temperature sensors required two visits, one to install the dataloggers and another to remove the …

Integrated Valuation Of The Ecological, Social And Economic Benefits Provided By A Multifunctional Nature-Based Solution, Laura Costadone, Shan Zhang

ODU Articles

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) offer multifunctional approaches to address climate change and environmental challenges, providing a sustainable alternative to traditional gray infrastructure. Despite their promise, widespread adoption remains limited, in part due to an incomplete understanding of their full costs and benefits relative to conventional infrastructure. Traditional benefit–cost analyses often overlook non-monetized benefits and the interconnected ecosystem services provided by NbS. This study introduces a methodological approach to quantify both the physical and monetary value of ecosystem services and co-benefits delivered by an NbS project. We applied an integrated valuation framework to a case study in Virginia Beach, VA, USA, where …

The Lotus At Dawn: Rethinking Climate Resilience In An Archipelago, Marie Franchesca M. Borras

English Faculty Publications

Super Typhoon Rai, locally called Odette, hit the Philippines on December 16, 2021, devastating General Luna, a municipality in Surigao del Norte. Due to this natural disaster, this study—originally written as a pre-pandemic autoethnographic account via flâneuserie—endeavors to understand how the mobility of city dwellers contributes to the anthropogenic climate by exploring the ethics of care. Additionally, it seeks to posit inquiries on what it means to be climate-resilient in an archipelagic country such as the Philippines. Beyond economic methodologies, it is pivotal to examine issues of care that deal with our relationship with nature by understanding how, for example, …

High-Resolution Modeling Of Extreme Heat Events With Socioeconomic Consideration: A Real-Case Wrf-Les Approach, Maryam Golbazi, Frank Liu, Yin-Hsuen Chen, Timothy W. Juliano, Heather Richter

ODU Articles

The overarching goals of this work is to explore best practices for micro-scale modeling of a real case, identify relevant phenomena by using high-resolution modeling, and to explore their implications for public health, and climate resilience strategies in Hampton Roads, VA, USA. This project employs the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to conduct a comprehensive study of Hampton Roads, utilizing a coupled mesoscale to microscale modeling capable of resolving boundary layer turbulence. This study has three primary objectives: (1) to establish the optimal mesoscale to Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) configurations for complex geographical regions such as the Hampton Roads (HR) …

Sustainable Management Of Erosive Shores: An Interdisciplinary Approach Integrating Engineering And Social Sciences At A Tide-Dominant Beach Area, Jun Ik Sohn, Hyun Dong Kim, Kiran Adhithya Ramakrishnan

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

This study investigates the causes and consequences of shoreline erosion at Kkotji Beach, a prominent tourist destination on the west coast of South Korea, where the degradation of the coastal environment has increasingly threatened the local tourism industry and economy, by employing a mixed-methods approach that combines field observations with MIKE 21 hydrodynamic simulations and by integrating perspectives from coastal engineering and the social sciences to develop practical, site-specific strategies for mitigating erosion, enhancing public awareness, and promoting sustainable coastal planning and development that support long-term environmental resilience and economic stability. The results show that dominant ebb currents drive southward …

Low Salinities Impair Heat Tolerance And Alter Reproductive Traits With No Implications For Survival In A Marine Annelid From Coastal Habitats, Gabrielle Newton, Gloria Massamba-N'Siala

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Climate change is expected to intensify salinity and temperature fluctuations in estuarine and coastal habitats. However, the impact of salinity variation on ectotherms’ thermal tolerance remains underexplored, limiting our understanding of the interplay between these stressors. This study investigated salinity-dependent changes in life history traits (survival, growth rate, fecundity, and egg size) over a 33-day exposure to a salinity gradient (12, 17, 22, 27, 32, 35, 40, 45, 50) in the marine annelid Ophryotrocha labronica. Individuals that survived the salinity treatments were assessed for their upper and lower thermal tolerance limits. Female individuals, the target of the study, exhibited …

Cellular Responses Of Astrangia Poculata (Ellis And Solander, 1786) And Its Symbiont To Experimental Heat Stress, Tyler E. Harman, Daniel Barshis, Briana Hauff Salas, Kevin B. Strychar

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Climate change has had devastating effects on tropical coral reefs; however, much less is known regarding how heat stress affects temperate coral. This research focuses on Astrangia poculata (Ellis and Solander, 1786) collected from Narragansett Bay, RI, during the summer and winter seasons and understanding the effect of experimental thermal extremes (i.e., 26 °C) on seasonally different populations. Photosynthetic efficiency (Fv/Fm), symbiont density (via an inverse relationship with pixel intensity), and oxidative stress via reactive oxygen species (ROS) concentrations were measured on symbiotic and aposymbiotic A. poculata. Higher Fv/Fm rates were observed in summer- vs. winter-collected corals (p ≤ …

Alternative Splicing In A Coral During Heat Stress Acclimation And Recovery, Nitin Baliga, Kathryn Stanklewicz, Jacob Valenzuela, Serdar Turkarsian, Wei-Ju Wu, Kelly Gomez-Campo, Nicolas Locatelli, Trinity Conn, Veronica Radice, Katherine Parker, Rachel Alderdice, Line Bay, Christian Voolstra, Daniel Barshis, Iliana Baums

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Climate change has caused drastic declines in corals. As sessile organisms, corals acclimate to environmental shifts through genome-wide changes in gene expression, epigenetic modifications, and alterations in microbiome composition. However, alternative splicing (AS), a conserved mechanism of stress response in many organisms, has been under-explored in corals. Using short-term acute thermal stress assays, we investigated patterns of AS in the scleractinian coral Acropora cervicornis during response to low (33°C), medium (35°C), and high (37°C) heat stress and subsequent overnight recovery. Our findings demonstrate reproducible dynamic shifts in AS of at least 40 percent of all genes during response to heat …

Analyzing Microbial Communities In Porites Astreoides, Sanaa Caldwell, Katie Parker, Daniel Barshis

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Coral reefs are vital marine ecosystems that support many different species and ecosystem services through protecting coastlines from storms and erosion, providing raw materials for medication, and facilitating diversity amongst marine species. Anthropogenic climate change is causing ocean temperatures to exceed the range of coral thermal tolerance resulting in more coral bleaching events globally. However, some corals have the capacity to withstand high temperatures through different thermal tolerance strategies. A balanced microbial community plays a critical role in coral health and recent studies have indicated that a balanced microbiome is associated with temperature-stress tolerant corals. Yet, there is a severe …

Summer Temperature Maxima Already Challenge Thermal Capacities Of Coral In The Southern Persian/Arabian Gulf, Rachel Alderdice, Gabriela Perna, Hannah Manns, Anna Fiesinger, Luigi Colin, Kathryn Stankiewicz, Kelly Gomez-Campo, Samantha Goyen, Line Bayse, Nitin Baliga, Jake Valenzuela, Iliana B. Baums, Daniel J. Barshis, John A. Burt, Christian R. Voolstra

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

The future of coral reefs remains uncertain as intensifying ocean warming continues to drive coral decline and demise worldwide. Corals occurring in extreme environments such as the Persian/Arabian Gulf (PAG), the world’s warmest sea, represent a promising resource to study the genetic architecture of thermal tolerance. However, their thermal capacities remain unresolved. We applied short-term heat stress assays using the Coral Bleaching Automated Stress System (CBASS) to determine signatures of thermal tolerance from three common species (Porites harrisoni, Platygyra daedalea, and Cyphastrea microphthalma) across three sites (two in the extreme southern PAG and a more benign …

A Multispecies, Multisite Assessment Of Coral Thermal Tolerances In American Samoa, Using Acute Heat Stress Assays, Ponchanok Weeriyanun, Nicolas R. Evensen, Katherine E. Parker, Veronica Z. Radice, Daniel J. Barshis

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Reef-building corals are being impacted by increasing seawater temperatures, with marine heatwaves leading to mass bleaching events and extensive mortality. However, corals can display variation in thermal tolerance, both within and among species. In this study, we sampled four coral species (Acropora hyacinthus, Montipora grisea, Pocillopora verrucosa, and Porites lobata) from two sites on Tutuila, American Samoa, with contrasting environmental regimes but similar Maximum Monthly Means (MMM). Coral fragments were subjected to short-term acute heat stress experiments using the Coral Bleaching Automated Stress System (CBASS). PAM Fluorometry was used to measure the symbiont’s effective quantum yield (Fv/Fm) following heat stress …

Building Heat-Resilient Caribbean Reefs: Integrating Thermal Thresholds And Coral Colonies Selection In Restoration, Macarena Blanco Pimentel, Johanna Calle-Triviño, Daniel J. Barshis, Sancia E. T. Van Der Meij, Megan K. Morikawa

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Caribbean reefs face increasingly frequent and intense bleaching events, adding to the numerous other threats impacting these ecosystems. Addressing these challenges requires global action to reduce climate drivers, along with local efforts like reef restoration. Active restoration using thermotolerant coral colonies offers a potential strategy to alleviate these impacts; however, gaps remain in identifying context-specific temperature thresholds to guide colony selection and standardize thermotolerance assessment methods. This study addressed these gaps in two phases. First, by determining practical thresholds to differentiate species responses to heat stress; and second, by developing a framework to identify and prioritize resilient colonies for restoration. …

Future-Oriented Coastal Protection: The Utility Of Living Shorelines Under Changing Climatic Conditions, Gabriella R. Dipetto, Donna Marie Bilkovic, Taylor M. Sloey, Erik S. Yando, Erik L. Walters

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

An accumulation of novel nature-based shoreline management techniques have developed over the past two decades out of the continued need to protect waterfront land combined with an awareness of the relationship between healthy coastal ecosystems and human societies. Shoreline protection strategies such as living shorelines incorporate these nature-based approaches to simultaneously enhance ecosystem functioning while providing shoreline stabilization benefits. The continued role of these approaches into the future, however, will be challenged by a rapidly changing coastal environment. While living shorelines have received global attention and integration into climate policy and governance frameworks, the ability of shoreline systems to withstand …

The Pluralistic Natural Capital Values Of A Tropical City, Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, Justine Saunders, Peter Edwards, Daniel Richards, Jahson I. Alemu, Natasha Bhatia, Roman Carrasco, Zuzana Drillet, Tze Kwan Fung, Yan Feng Leon Gaw, Wanggi Jaung, Andrea Law, Rachel Ai Ting Leong, Aikeen Youu Ming Lim, Mahyar Masoudi, Yudhishthra Nathan, Rachel Rui Ying Oh, Wen Ting Ooi, Fairul Edros Ahmad Shaikh Shaikh, Xiao Ping Song, Claudia L.Y. Tan, Puay Yok Tan, Sergio Wicki, Lynn-Wei Wong, Yanyun Yan, Erik Yando, Alex Thiam Koon Yee, Jingyuan Zhang, Daniel A. Friess

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Nature in cities is essential for human well-being. Quantifying and valuing the goods and services provided by nature to city dwellers is missing in tropical contexts. Yet, as cities worldwide face similar challenges, understanding the services provided by tropical urban ecosystems becomes imperative for effective management. Here, we present the first Natural Capital Assessment of a tropical city, unveiling three critical insights. Firstly, we demonstrate the vital reliance of a developed tropical city on nature, particularly for climate change mitigation through regulating services. Secondly, we identify intact natural areas as Singapore’s most valuable assets, stressing the significance of the quality …