Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Droughtscape, Winter 2016, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column

California drought FAQ

October-December 2015 drought

October-December 2015 impacts

2015 drought impacts in review

NDMC hiring geospatial analyst

CA drought exposes social vulnerability

UA helps Arizona ranchers, Forest Service work together

NDMC and partners help southern Plains ranchers manage drought

Chickasaw ranching workshop

Changing Winds And Rising Tides On Beach Renourishment In Florida: Short-Term Alternatives And Long-Term Sustainable Solutions Using Law And Policy From Florida And Nearby States, Lewis Van Alstyne Iii

Florida A & M University Law Review

Sandy beaches make up 825 miles of Florida's 1,260 total miles of coastline around the Sunshine State's peninsula. These beaches are changing over time due to the natural erosional forces of wind and water. Coastal engineering attempts to halt natural forces with man-made structures such as buildings, piers, groins, jetties, breakwaters, sea walls, ports, inlets, and in some cases, it creates new sandy beaches and world-class cities where none existed. In an effort to protect the new real estate from the erosion that has always existed, engineers created beach nourishment. This Article focuses on building up beaches through beach nourishment. …

Assessing The Impact Of Vertical Land Motion On Twentieth Century Global Mean Sea Level Estimates, B. D. Hamlington, P. Thompson, W. C. Hammond, G. Blewitt, R. D. Ray

CCPO Publications

Near-global and continuous measurements from satellite altimetry have provided accurate estimates of global mean sea level in the past two decades. Extending these estimates further into the past is a challenge using the historical tide gauge records. Not only is sampling nonuniform in both space and time, but tide gauges are also affected by vertical land motion (VLM) that creates a relative sea level change not representative of ocean variability. To allow for comparisons to the satellite altimetry estimated global mean sea level (GMSL), typically the tide gauges are corrected using glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. This approach, however, does …

Mechanism Of Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Evolution And Arctic Amplification, Kwang-Yul Kim, Benjamin D. Hamlington, Hanna Na, Jinju Kim

CCPO Publications

Sea ice loss is proposed as a primary reason for the Arctic amplification, although the physical mechanism of the Arctic amplification and its connection with sea ice melting is still in debate. In the present study, monthly ERA-Interim reanalysis data are analyzed via cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis to understand the seasonal mechanism of sea ice loss in the Arctic Ocean and the Arctic amplification. While sea ice loss is widespread over much of the perimeter of the Arctic Ocean in summer, sea ice remains thin in winter only in the Barents-Kara seas. Excessive turbulent heat flux through the sea …

The Sea Is Rising… But Not Onto The Policy Agenda: A Multiple Streams Approach To Understanding Sea Level Rise Policies, Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf, Katharine Neill, Burton St. John Iii, Ivan K. Ash, Kaitrin Mahar

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

There has been little policy effort to address sea level rise in coastal states in the US. It is important to examine, at the state level, how the multitude of different (and changing) actors with different preferences and perspectives contribute to such inertia. This study examines state-level legislative inaction with regards to sea level rise. Using Kingdon's multiple streams framework, we draw a picture of the policy landscape in Virginia as one where the problem of sea level rise is perceived as a low priority, with little consensus on achievable policy solutions, and is politically controversial. We find that policy …

Assessing The Evolution Of Soil Moisture And Vegetation Conditions During The 2012 United States Flash Drought, Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher R. Hain, Mark D. Svoboda, David K. Johnson, Richard Mueller, Tsegaye Tadesse, Brian D. Wardlow, Jesslyn Brown

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This study examines the evolution of several model-based and satellite-derived drought metrics sensitive to soil moisture and vegetation conditions during the extreme flash drought event that impacted major agricultural areas across the central U.S. during 2012. Standardized anomalies from the remote sensing based Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) and Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) and soil moisture anomalies from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) are compared to the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), surface meteorological conditions, and crop and soil moisture data compiled by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

Overall, the results show that rapid decreases in …

The Implications Of Climate Change For Nebraska: Summary Report Of Sector-Based Roundtable Discussions, Donald A. Wilhite, Kimberly Morrow

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This report is the result of the work of many individuals that contributed to the success of the series of eight sector-based roundtable events that were held in September and October of 2015. First and foremost, we would like to thank the organizers and the organizations they represent for their leadership in bringing together a diverse set of key stakeholders to discuss the implications of climate change on their sector. It was such a pleasure to work with such a dedicated group of individuals. Second, we would like to thank the more than 350 people who participated in these discussions …

New Tools For Assessing Drought Conditions For Rangeland Management, Cody Knutson, Brian Fuchs

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Historical drought assessment and ongoingmonitoring is essential for understanding past drought occurrence, the relationships between past drought and its impacts, and for triggering action during current drought events. • A variety of new products have recently been developed to better monitor drought conditions and assess past occurrences at the local scale. • A growing number of resources are available to assist rangeland managers to develop a monitoring system and incorporate it into a drought management plan.

Predicting The Water Quality Of Shallow Arctic Ponds Using Remote Sensing, Gabriela Tarin

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Barrow, Alaska is in a region dominated by Arctic tundra of which a substantial part is covered by lakes and ponds. Despite their dominance in the landscape, freshwater ecosystems in the Arctic have been insufficiently studied. It is clear that furthering understanding of how Arctic water bodies are responding to warming will depend on the analysis of changes in the concentration of organic and inorganic constituents in the water; however, scientists are faced with the task of sampling many remote sites in a relatively hostile environment. Thus, the exploration and incorporation of remote methods for monitoring changes in water quality. …

Relocation Based On Slow-Onset Climate-Induced Environmental Change In Keta, Ghana, Abdul-Moomin Ansong Salifu

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

Coastal indigenous communities in Keta, Ghana, are experiencing resettlement as a result of slow-onset, climate-induced flooding and erosion. Previous researchers have documented the risk of relocation from rapid-onset events, but little is known about the effectiveness of policies developed in response to slow-onset changes. This phenomenological study investigated the ongoing lived experiences of adult household members in Keta who were relocated by the government. Jun's critical theory provided a constructionist interpretive framework to determine whether Ghana's national policy on climate change resettlement adequately meets Rawls's criteria for distributive social justice. Policy documents and transcriptions of interviews with a purposeful sample …

Not Only Climate: Interacting Drivers Of Treeline Change In Europe, Dominik Kulakowski, Ignacio Barbeito, Alejandro Casteller, Ryszard J. Kaczka, Peter Bebi

Geography

Treelines have long been recognized as important ecotones and likely harbingers of climate change. However, over the last century many treelines have been affected not only by global warming, but also by the interactions of climate, forest disturbance and the consequences of abrupt demographic and economic changes. Recent research has increasingly stressed how multiple ecological, biophysical, and human factors interact to shape ecological dynamics. Here we highlight the need to consider interactions among multiple drivers to more completely understand and predict treeline dynamics in Europe.

Optical Properties And Bioavailability Of Dissolved Organic Matter Along A Flow-Path Continuum From Soil Pore Waters To The Kolyma River Mainstem, East Siberia, Karen E. Frey, William V. Sobczak, Paul J. Mann, Robert M. Holmes

Geography

The Kolyma River in northeast Siberia is among the six largest Arctic rivers and drains a region underlain by vast deposits of Holocene-aged peat and Pleistocene-aged loess known as yedoma, most of which is currently stored in ice-rich permafrost throughout the region. These peat and yedoma deposits are important sources of dissolved organic matter (DOM) to inland waters that in turn play a significant role in the transport and ultimate remineralization of organic carbon to CO2 and CH4 along the terrestrial flow-path continuum. The turnover and fate of terrigenous DOM during offshore transport largely depends upon the composition and amount …

Decadal Bering Sea Seascape Change: Consequences For Pacific Walruses And Indigenous Hunters, G. Carleton Ray, Gary L. Hufford, James E. Overland, Igor Krupnik, Jerry Mccormick-Ray, Karen Frey, Elizabeth Labunski

Geography

The most signifi cant factors currently affecting the Pacifi c walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) population are climate change and consequent changes in sea-ice morphology and dynamics. This paper integrates recent physical sea-ice change in the Bering Sea with biological and ecological conditions of walruses in their winter-spring reproductive habitat. Historically, walrus in winter-spring depended on a critical mass of sea-ice habitat to optimize social networking, reproductive fi tness, feeding behavior, migration, and energetic effi ciency. During 2003-2013, our cross-disciplinary, multiscale analysis from shipboard observations, satellite imagery, and ice-fl oe tracking, reinforced by information from indigenous subsistence hunters, documented change of …

Evidence For The Drainage Of A Superglacial Lake As The Source Of Seismic Waves Recorded At A Regional Distance, Erik J. Orantes

Dissertations and Theses

Surface melting during the summer leads to the formation of lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet surface, known as supraglacial lakes. Some of these lakes drain through cracks in their beds and release the water into the ice sheet. Previous studies suggest that some of the water reaches the bedrock, enabling basal sliding, which could potentially increase glacial discharge (Sundal et al., 2009). Das et al. (2008) showed that supraglacial lake drainage can be accompanied by seismic activity, but little work has been done on the regional detection of such waves. The present study analyzes seismic data for the period …

An Assessment Of Long-Term Changes In The Characterisitcs Of Precipitation In The Upper Midwest, Blake Steven Lea

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

As climate change progresses, many forecasts for the upper Midwest predict increases in annual precipitation, but with a shift in seasonal patterns that will leave the summer months drier with less frequent, higher magnitude storm events. Changes in precipitation patterns have the potential to alter the sediment budget and discharge patterns in watersheds. The purpose of this study was to determine the effects changes in frequency, magnitude, duration, and intensity of precipitation might have on streamflow and sediment budgets in the upper Midwest. This analysis was carried out using hourly precipitation data from 1948 to 2013 from 23 sites and …

Assessing Urban Greenhouse Gas Emissions In European Medium And Large Cities: Methodological Considerations, Peter Marcotullio, Andrea Sarzynski, Jochen Albrecht, Niels Schulz, Jake Garcia

Publications and Research

Policymakers need clear, consistent, and reliable information about the location of greenhouse gases and drivers of emitting activity in order to design appropriate mitigating strategies. At the urban scale, there have been challenges in developing consistent and reliable emissions inventories. This chapter examines selected methods to determine greenhouse gas emissions at the urban scale. We describe the various criteria considered when constructing an urban greenhouse gas protocol including the definition of urban, the gasses that are measured, the source they come from, the scope of analysis and how the measurements are undertaken. We then present results for European medium and …

Climate Change Mitigation, Technological Innovation And Adaptation: A New Perspective On Climate Policy, Michael J. Allen

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

The book Climate Change Mitigation, Technological Innovation and Adaptation outlines the complexities associated with addressing climate change including economic structure, technological innovation, and geopolitical willpower. By focusing on global economics, the text considers barriers to climate policy and future energy transformation away from carbon to more renewable sources. Additionally, the authors highlight the role of innovation in mitigation and adaptation.

Trade-Offs Between Three Forest Ecosystem Services Across The State Of New Hampshire, Usa: Timber, Carbon, And Albedo, David A. Lutz, Elizabeth A. Burakowski, Mackenzie B. Murphy, Mark E. Borsuk

Dartmouth Scholarship

Forests are more frequently being managed to store and sequester carbon for the purposes of climate change mitigation. Generally, this practice involves long-term conservation of intact mature forests and/or reductions in the frequency and intensity of timber harvests. However, incorporating the influence of forest surface albedo often suggests that long rotation lengths may not always be optimal in mitigating climate change in forests characterized by frequent snowfall. To address this, we investigated trade-offs between three ecosystem services: carbon storage, albedo-related radiative forcing, and timber provisioning. We calculated optimal rotation length at 498 diverse Forest Inventory and Analysis forest sites in …

Regional Variations Of Optimal Sowing Dates Of Maize For The Southwestern U.S., Boksoon Myoung, Seung Hee Kim, Jinwon Kim, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Sowing date (SD) is sensitive to regional climate characteristics; thus, it is critical to systematically examine the effects of SD on crop yields for various temperature regimes. We performed a sensitivity study of SD for maize in the southwestern U.S. using the regionally extended version of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model. The model was run utilizing North American Regional Reanalysis at a 32 km resolution from 1991 to 2011, with an irrigation threshold at 95% of the soil water-holding capacity. Two types of SD optimizations maximizing yield potential (Yp), varying spatially or interannually, revealed that the optimal SD …

Positive Organizational Leadership And Pro-Environmental Behavior: The Phenomenon Of Institutional Fossil Fuel Divestment, Abigail Abrash Walton

Antioch University Dissertations & Theses

Climate change is one of the most significant dynamics of our time.The predominant contributor to climate change is combustion of fossil fuels by humans.This study deepened understanding of organizational leaders’ role in enacting one approach to addressing climate change:institutional fossil fuel divestment.The study used a qualitative research design to explore U.S.-based foundation leaders’ readiness to pursue fossil fuel divestment by their institutions.The study examined leaders’ motivations and actions in pursuing divestment, while simultaneously exercising their fiduciary duty to steward institutional assets.Research questions focused on the divestment behavior change process and the outcomes of divestment on leaders and their organizations.Data collection …

Predicting The Impact Of Future Climate On Ecologically Important Macroalgae, Charlie Phelps

Theses: Doctorates and Masters

Macroalgae play an important role in coastal reef systems and are often referred to as ecosystem engineers. They serve as primary producers, supporting a diverse range of organisms, and are a sink for atmospheric CO2. Water acidification and ocean warming caused by anthropogenic activities are affecting many marine flora and fauna, potentially impacting the physical and chemical performance of macroalgae and the consumption rates of associated herbivores. Many studies have focused on ocean acidification or ocean warming individually but there is an overall lack of research investigating the combined effects and the ensuing repercussions on consumer-prey relationships.

Three species of …

Evaluating The Biogeochemical Functioning Of A Constructed Fen On The Post-Mining Landscape Of Athabasca Oil Sands Region, Fort Mcmurray, Alberta, Canada, Felix C. Nwaishi

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Peatlands have a unique biogeochemical function, characterized by an imbalance between the rates of biomass accumulation and decomposition. These characteristics facilitate the ability of peatlands to support the sequestration of nutrients and carbon. In disturbed peatlands, these functions are compromised. Thus, reclamation targets amongst other key functions, the recovery of biogeochemical functioning. These functions could serve as a measure of recovery to conditions that are present in natural analogues. This thesis examines the recovery of microbially-mediated nutrient transformation processes in a fen peatland that was constructed on a post-mining landscape in the Athabasca oil sands region, Fort McMurray, Alberta. The …

Responses Of Marine Organisms To Climate Change Across Oceans, Elvira S. Poloczanska, Michael T. Burrows, Christipher J. Brown, Jorge G. Molinos, Benjamin S. Halpern, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Carrie V. Kappel, Philippa J. Moore, Anthony Richardson, David S. Schoeman, William J. Sydeman

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

Climate change is driving changes in the physical and chemical properties of the ocean that have consequences for marine ecosystems. Here, we review evidence for the responses of marine life to recent climate change across ocean regions, from tropical seas to polar oceans. We consider observed changes in calcification rates, demography, abundance, distribution, and phenology of marine species. We draw on a database of observed climate change impacts on marine species, supplemented with evidence in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discuss factors that limit or facilitate species' responses, such as fishing pressure, the …

Losing Ground, Alison Kanski

Capstones

Climate change and sea level rise are slowly decimating beaches. But the U.S. government and loyal residents won't let go of the beaches so easily.

A determined resident of the Rockaways in New York fights for the money and attention from governments to sustain his lifelong home and stop it from washing away.

Three-Dimensional Wind Speed And Flux Measurements Over A Rain-Fed Soybean Field Using Orthogonal And Non-Orthogonal Sonic Anemometer Designs, Taylor Thomas

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The eddy covariance method for estimating fluxes of trace gases, energy and momentum in the constant flux layer above a plant canopy fundamentally relies on accurate measurements of the vertical wind speed. This wind speed is typically measured using a three-dimensional ultrasonic anemometer. Previous studies comparing anemometers with orthogonal transducer sets to those with non-orthogonal transducer sets suggest differences in measured 3D wind speed components, particularly for a vertical component. These differences, attributed to additional flow distortion caused by the non-orthogonal transducer arrangement and support structure, directly affect fluxes of trace gases, energy and momentum. A field experiment was conducted …

Umphlett Qci 2015, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Late Hard Freeze

Late Freezes Extended Growing Season

Warm Fall Delays Bird Migrations

Monitoring Water Resources Across the Basin

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Evaluation Of Large‑Scale Meteorological Patterns Associated With Temperature Extremes In The Narccap Regional Climate Model Simulations, Paul C. Loikith, Duane E. Waliser, Huikyo Lee, J. David Neelin, Benjamin Lintner, Seth Mcginnis, Linda Mears, Jinwon Kim

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with temperature extremes are evaluated in a suite of regional climate model (RCM) simulations contributing to the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. LSMPs are characterized through composites of surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies concurrent with extreme temperature days. Six of the seventeen RCM simulations are driven by boundary conditions from reanalysis while the other eleven are driven by one of four global climate models (GCMs). Four illustrative case studies are analyzed in detail. Model fidelity in LSMP spatial representation is high for cold winter extremes near …

An Integrated Drought Index (Idi) Incorporating Physical And Social Aspects, Rebecca L. Lanier

Master's Theses

The purpose of this research was to determine significant bio-physical (physical and environmental) and social variables that can be integrated into a drought index to predict areas susceptible to drought. Severe drought events are capable of causing millions of dollars in damage. The 1988 drought caused the United States approximately $40 billion in damage. Drought forecasting, modeling, and detection have, therefore, become imperative to understand the social, economic and environmental impacts of droughts, and also to explore how these impacts play a role in the occurrence of a drought. A number of drought indices widely used in the U.S. rely …

Validation Of The Global Distribution Of Co2 Volume Mixing Ratio In The Mesosphere And Lower Thermosphere From Saber, L. Rezac, Y. Jian, J. Yue, J. M. Russell Iii, A. Kutepov, R. Garcia, K. Walker, P. Bernath

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

The Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on board the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite has been measuring the limb radiance in 10 broadband infrared channels over the altitude range from ~ 400 km to the Earth's surface since 2002. The kinetic temperatures and CO₂ volume mixing ratios (VMRs) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere have been simultaneously retrieved using SABER limb radiances at 15 and 4.3 μm under nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) conditions. This paper presents results of a validation study of the SABER CO₂ VMRs obtained with a two-channel, self-consistent …

Modifying A Cow-Calf Biophysical Simulation Model For Analyses Of Alternative Enterprises, Jennifer L. Lutes

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Cow-calf producers in the United States, tasked with providing beef calves for the beef industry, have had a multitude of difficulties to overcome in recent years. Producers in northwest Arkansas were negatively impacted by high hay prices coupled with low beef cattle market prices due to severe drought experienced in portions of 2010, 2011, and 2012. During this time they also faced high grain prices, due to a record low harvest, combined with portions of the corn harvest diverted from human and animal feed to ethanol production. Tight lending policies of this time, reminiscent of the housing market crash in …