Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Climate Change Impacts On Freshwater Wetland Hydrology And Vegetation Cover Cycling Along A Regional Aridity Gradient, Philip A. Fay, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Jennifer H. Olker, W. Carter Johnson

Natural Resource Management Faculty Publications

Global mean temperature may increase up to 6°C by the end of this century and together with precipitation change may steepen regional aridity gradients. The hydrology, productivity, and ecosystem services from freshwater wetlands depend on their future water balance. We simulated the hydrology and vegetation dynamics of wetland complexes in the North American Prairie Pothole Region with the WETLANDSCAPE model. Simulations for 63 precipitation × temperature combinations spanning 6°C warming and −20% to +20% annual precipitation change at 19 locations along a mid-continental aridity gradient showed that aridity explained up to 99% of the variation in wetland stage and hydroperiod …

Changing Trends In Wave Heights In The U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region, Hillary Lane

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The pace and effects of climate change are an area of constant focus for coastal engineers as evolving patterns in the atmosphere worldwide affect the oceans and coasts on a regional and global scale. Surface waves respond to changing wind patterns both locally and from propagating swell, and the difficulty in predicting future wind patterns is well-established. Expectations that climate change will result in more frequent and intense coastal storms and consequently greater wave heights in the North Atlantic are still unrealized, and recent forecasts from a variety of atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models instead predict decreasing wave heights through …

Coastal Groundwater Watch: A Citizen Science Project - Report No. 477, Alex Manda, Thomas Allen

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

The goals of this study were to utilize citizen scientists in groundwater research in a coastal community where groundwater plays a large role in sustainable water resources management, and assess the extent of groundwater and marine inundation in response to future sea-level rise scenarios. A total of 7 citizen scientists participated in the study by measuring water levels from 15 groundwater monitoring wells using water level meters once a week over a 10-week period. Automated water level loggers were deployed in three of the same wells to assess the quality of the data collected by the citizen scientists. Additional water …

Potential Impacts Of Climate Change On Photochemistry Of Zostera Marina L., Billur Celebi

OES Theses and Dissertations

Seagrasses account for approximately 10% of the ocean’s total carbon storage, although photosynthesis of seagrasses is carbon limited at today’s oceanic pH. Therefore, increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration, which results in ocean acidification/carbonation, is predicted to have a positive impact on seagrass productivity. Previous studies have confirmed the positive influence of increasing CO₂ on photosynthesis and survival of the temperate eelgrass Zostera marina L., but the acclimation of photoprotective mechanisms in this context has not been characterized. This study aimed to quantify the long-term impacts of ocean acidification on photochemical control mechanisms that promote photosynthesis while simultaneously protecting …

Lessons From The Past: Unfolding The Dynamics Among Climate, Balkan Landscapes, And Humans Over The Past Millennium, Charuta J. Kulkarni

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

The primary objective of this doctoral dissertation is to reconstruct the environmental history of the Central Balkans (Serbia) over the past millennium utilizing biological proxies (pollen, spores, and charcoal), geochemical signals through X-ray fluorescence (XRF), statistical analyses, and atomic mass spectrometry (AMS) ¹⁴C chronology. This dissertation establishes the first chronological framework for vegetation-landscape changes in Serbia and discusses the role of humans and climate as underlying processes.

Chapter 1 discusses the background and the nature of the research problem followed by the extensive literature review on the topic of the Holocene climate and paleoecology. The state of Holocene paleoecology …

Future Changes In Propagating And Non-Propagating Diurnal Rainfall Over East Asia, Wan-Ru Huang, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang

Plants, Soils, and Climate Faculty Publications

The characteristics of diurnal rainfall in the East Asian continent consist of a propagating regime over the Yangtze River and a non-propagating regime in southeast China. Simulations of these two diurnal rainfall regimes by 18 CMIP5 models were evaluated from the historical experiment of 1981–2005. The evaluation led to the identification of one model, the CMCC-CM that replicated the key characteristics of diurnal rainfall regimes including the propagation of moisture convergence. Using the CMCC-CM to assess the future (2076–2100) change of diurnal evolution and propagation projected by the RCP4.5 experiment, it was found that propagating diurnal rainfall will enhance and …

Drought In A Human-Modified World: Reframing Drought Definitions, Understanding, And Analysis Approaches, Anne F. Van Loon, Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark4, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark D. Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, Henny A. J. Van Lanen

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes.Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and …

Tibetan Plateau Geladaindong Black Carbon Ice Core Record (1843–1982): Recent Increases Due To Higher Emissions And Lower Snow Accumulation, Matthew Jenkins, Susan Kaspari, Kang Shi-Chang, Bjorn Grigholm, Paul A. Mayewski

Student Published Works

Black carbon (BC) deposited on snow and glacier surfaces can reduce albedo and lead to accelerated melt. An ice core recovered from Guoqu glacier on Mt. Geladaindong and analyzed using a Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) provides the first long-term (1843–1982) record of BC from the central Tibetan Plateau. Post 1940 the record is characterized by an increased occurrence of years with above average BC, and the highest BC values of the record. The BC increase in recent decades is likely caused by a combination of increased emissions from regional BC sources, and a reduction in snow accumulation. Guoqu glacier …

Icelandic Fisheries: Scenario Planning For Climate Change, Tara Sorrels

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

This study aimed to develop an understanding of how a scenario planning process could be used to assist businesses to adapt to climate change. The focus of this study was on the Icelandic fishing industry since Iceland is experiencing firsthand climate change impacts. Mitigation strategies are the main focus in climate change research, but this study focused on a possible adaptation method that requires changing management practices in order to reduce the impact of climate change on the economy. Tours of Icelandic fisheries and interviews with individuals within the Icelandic fishing industry were conducted to assess the current adaptive capacity …

Umphlett Qci Sept 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Streamflow Conditions

Challenging Season for Bird Breeding

Mixed Impacts to Agriculture this Summer

Unprecedented Fish Kill on Yellowstone River

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Watershed Response To Climate Change And Fire-Burns In The Upper Umatilla River Basin Using The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, Kimberly Crystal Yazzie

Dissertations and Theses

This study provides an analysis of watershed response to climate change and forest fire impacts, to better understand the hydrologic budget and inform water management decisions for present and future needs. The study site is 2,365 km², located in the upper Umatilla River Basin (URB) in northeastern Oregon. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, a distributed-parameter, physical-process watershed model, was used in this study. Model calibration yielded a Nash Sutcliffe Model Efficiency of 0.73 for both calibration (1995-2010) and validation (2010-2014) of daily streamflow. Ten Global Climate Models using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 experiments with Representative Concentration …

Comparing Carbon Dioxide And Water Vapor Fluxes From Tilled And Non-Tilled Maize Canopy Fields, Heather Sussman, Richard Grant

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

Agricultural activities account for approximately 25% of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions. Farm management practices, such as tillage and no-tillage, may contribute more to this percentage than others. The two most abundant greenhouse gases responsible for climate change are CO₂ and H₂O, therefore it is important to determine whether tillage or no-tillage emits less of these gases. Fluxes of CO₂ and H₂O from two maize canopy fields, one with tillage and one with no-tillage, were measured in Indiana during the 2016 growing season. This study utilized the eddy covariance method, which represents flux as a …

Measurement Of The Ocean Economy From National Income Accounts To The Sustainable Blue Economy, Charles S. Colgan

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

The widespread efforts to incorporate the economic values of oceans into national income accounts have reached a stage where coordination of national efforts is desirable. A symposium held in 2015 began this process by bringing together representatives from ten countries. The symposium concluded that a definition of core ocean industries was possible but beyond that core the definition of ocean industries is in flux. Better coordination of ocean income accounts will require addressing issues of aggregation, geography, partial ocean industries, confidential, and imputation is also needed. Beyond the standard national income accounts, a need to incorporate environmental resource and ecosystem …

A Comparison Of Tropical Rainforest Phenology Retrieved From Geostationary (Seviri) And Polar-Orbiting (Modis) Sensors Across The Congo Basin, Dong Yan, Xiaoyang Zhang, Yunyue Yu, Wei Guo

GSCE Faculty Publications

The seasonal and interannual dynamics of tropical rainforests play a critical role in the global carbon cycle and climate change. This paper retrieved and compared land surface phenology from observations acquired by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) onboard geostationary satellites and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on polar-orbiting satellites over the Congo Basin. To achieve this,we first retrieved canopy greenness cycles (CGCs) and their transition timing from two-band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2) derived from SEVIRI and MODIS data between 2006 and 2013.We then assessed the influences of SEVIRI and MODIS data quality on the reconstruction of …

Agro-Climatic Change, Crop Production And Mitigation Strategies-Case Studies In Arkansas, Usa And Kenya, John Westley Magugu

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Although climate change impacts vary geographically and temporally, studies at local levels are not readily available for stakeholders to better understand how their local communities would be affected and what remedial measures could be more effective in their local contexts. This dissertation has examined climate change and its impacts in two different local contexts: eastern Arkansas in the USA and Nyando in Kenya. The first part of this dissertation develops agro-meteorological indicators and examines the relationship between agro-meteorological indicators and crop yields in eastern Arkansas between 1960 and 2014. Results reveal that temperature based indicators were more strongly correlated to …

Evolutionary Potential Of A Dispersal-Restricted Species In Response To Climate Change, Lorena Torres Martinez

Open Access Dissertations

Habitat replacement and fragmentation associated with projected climate change pose a critical threat to global biodiversity. Edaphically limited plant species with restricted dispersal abilities will be especially handicapped to track their optimal climate spatially. Instead, the persistence of these species will depend on their capacity to adapt in situ to novel climate regimes. Here I evaluated the evolutionary potential of Lasthenia fremontii, an annual plant species restricted to ephemeral wetlands called vernal pools in California to adapt to the projected patterns of climate change. Across L. fremontii distribution there is a latitudinal gradient in precipitation which, combined with reduced …

Determining The Viability Of Recent Storms As Modern Analogues For North-Central Gulf Of Mexico Paleotempestology Through Sedimentary Analysis And Storm Surge Reconstruction, Joshua Caleb Bregy

Master's Theses

The northern Gulf of Mexico has been devastated by recent intense storms. Camille (1969) and Katrina (2005) are two notable hurricanes that made landfall in virtually the same location in Mississippi. However, fully understanding the risks and processes associated with hurricane impacts is impeded by a short and fragmented instrumental record. Paleotempestology could potentially use modern analogues from intense storms in this region to extend the hurricane record back to pre-observational time. Existing empirically based models can back-calculate surge heights over coastal systems as a function of transport distance, particle settling velocity, and gravitational acceleration. We collected cores in a …

Is The Detection Of Accelerated Sea Level Rise Imminent?, J. T. Fasullo, R. S. Nerem, B. Hamlington

CCPO Publications

Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time. In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the rate of sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades of the altimeter era. Here, a combined analysis of altimeter data and specially designed climate model simulations shows the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo to likely have masked the acceleration that would have otherwise occurred. This masking …

Tornado Density And Return Periods In The Southeastern United States: Communicating Risk And Vulnerability At The Regional And State Levels, Michelle Bradburn

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Tornado intensity and impacts vary drastically across space, thus spatial and statistical analyses were used to identify patterns of tornado severity in the Southeastern United States and to assess the vulnerability and estimated recurrence of tornadic activity. Records from the Storm Prediction Center's tornado database (1950-2014) were used to estimate kernel density to identify areas of high and low tornado frequency at both the regional- and state-scales. Return periods (2-year, 5-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, and 100-year) were calculated at both scales as well using a composite score that included EF-scale magnitude, injury counts, and fatality counts. Results showed that the …

Wind Climatology: A Study Of Trends On Rodgers' Dry Lakebed, Dana Coppernoll-Houston

STAR Program Research Presentations

A number of smaller projects at the Armstrong Flight Research Center fly on or close to the ground and are subject to ground-level winds. Many of these are new prototype models, such as PRANDTL-D (Preliminary Research Aerodynamic Design to Lower Drag). Waiting for the right conditions on a day of variable winds can sometimes mean that teams fail to complete testing. A strategic analysis of wind behavior at a locations where winds can vary greatly due to terrain could lend insight into the best times to test for near-ground aircraft. The purpose of this project was to data mine historical …

The Impact Of Climate Change In Bangladesh On The Rice Market And Farm Households, Mst Ashrafun Nahar

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Bangladesh is trying to achieve self-sufficiency in domestic rice production but climate change effects on agricultural production makes it challenging to attain the goal. The country is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change since it is the major cause to rise in sea level, more warm summer, and happening food and cyclone in the country.

This study develops an Aggregate Farm Household Model to analyze the impact of potential land loss and yield reduction from climate change on production, consumption, prices, welfare, and the ability of government to achieve self-sufficiency in rice production. The model is calibrated to …

Elevation Data And Mapping Updates, Doug Marcy

July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science

No abstract provided.

Street Level Predictive Modeling Of Nuisance Flooding In Norfolk, Va, Jon Derek Loftis, Harry V. Wang, David R. Forrest, William 'Skip' A. Stiles

July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science

No abstract provided.

Noaa Inundation Dashboard, Audra Luscher, Paul Fanelli

July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science

No abstract provided.

The Science Of Sea Level Rise And The Impact Of The Gulf Stream, Tal Ezer

July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science

No abstract provided.

Risk Of Extreme Events, Don Resio

July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science

No abstract provided.

Agenda, Hr Adaptation Forum

July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science

No abstract provided.

Total Water Level And Wave Run Up Forecast, Eric Seymour

July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science

No abstract provided.

Can Twilight Reefs Usher In A New Dawn For Depauperate Shallow Coral Reefs?, Hunter Kg Noren

HCNSO Student Theses and Dissertations

As shallow reefs continue to decline, scientists are searching for the key to their persistence; as it turns out, they may just need to look deeper. Below many shallow tropical reefs, there exist healthy and more stable mesophotic coral reef communities. The ability of these reefs to act as a refuge for declining shallow populations has garnered significant interest among the scientific community; however, the reproductive and larval aspects necessary for this to occur are unknown. This study assesses the ability of deep reefs to act as a reproductive refuge for shallow counterparts by examining gametic compatibility, viability and larval …

Combinatory Effect Of Changing Co2, Temperature, And Long-Term Growth Temperature On Isoprene Emissions, Michael Cole

DePaul Discoveries

Isoprene, the most abundant hydrocarbon in the atmosphere, plays a significant role in atmospheric chemistry. Its reactions with NO_x lead to the formation of ozone in the lower troposphere, which is harmful to plants and detrimental to human health. As air temperatures and CO₂ concentrations increase with climate change, it is uncertain how isoprene emissions from plants will respond. We hypothesized that isoprene emissions will increase with the combination of increasing temperature and CO­₂ concentrations. We predict that oaks grown at a higher temperature will exhibit an increase in isoprene emissions with combined short-term increases in temperature …