Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Predicting The U.S. Drought Monitor Using Precipitation, Soil Moisture, And Evapotranspiration Anomalies. Part Ii: Intraseasonal Drought Intensification Forecasts, David J. Lorenz, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Svoboda, Christopher R. Hain, Martha C. Anderson, Yafang Zhong

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Probabilistic forecasts of U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) intensification over 2-, 4-, and 8-week time periods are developed based on recent anomalies in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. These statistical forecasts are computed using logistic regression with cross validation. While recent precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture do provide skillful forecasts, it is found that additional information on the current state of the USDM adds significant skill to the forecasts. The USDM state information takes the form of a metric that quantifies the ‘‘distance’’ from the next-higher drought category using a nondiscrete estimate of the current USDM state. This adds skill because …

Dynamical Conditions Of Ice Supersaturation And Ice Nucleation In Convective Systems: A Comparative Analysis Between In Situ Aircraft Observations And Wrf Simulations, John D'Alessandro, Minghui Diao, Chenglai Wu, Xiaohong Liu, Ming Chen, Hugh Morrison, Trude Eidhammer, Jorgen Jensen, Aaron Bansemer, Mark Zondlo, Joshua Digangi

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Occurrence frequency and dynamical conditions of ice supersaturation (ISS, where relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) > 100%) are examined in the upper troposphere around convective activity. Comparisons are conducted between in situ airborne observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations using four double‐moment microphysical schemes at temperatures ≤ −40°C. All four schemes capture both clear‐sky and in‐cloud ISS conditions. However, the clear‐sky (in‐cloud) ISS conditions are completely (significantly) limited to the RHi thresholds of the Cooper parameterization. In all of the simulations, ISS occurrence frequencies are higher by ~3–4 orders of magnitude at higher updraft speeds ( …

Umphlett Qci March 2017, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Christmas Day Storm

Heavy Fuels Increase Fire Risk

Early Warmth Causes Concerns

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

NOAA Spring Flood Outlook

Mass Coral Mortality Under Local Amplification Of 2 °C Ocean Warming, Thomas M. Decarlo, Anne L. Cohen, George T. F. Wong, Kristen A. Davis, Pat Lohman, Keryea Soong

OES Faculty Publications

A 2 °C increase in global temperature above pre-industrial levels is considered a reasonable target for avoiding the most devastating impacts of anthropogenic climate change. In June 2015, sea surface temperature (SST) of the South China Sea (SCS) increased by 2 °C in response to the developing Pacific El Nino. On its own, this moderate, short-lived warming was unlikely to cause widespread damage to coral reefs in the region, and the coral reef "Bleaching Alert" alarm was not raised. However, on Dongsha Atoll, in the northern SCS, unusually weak winds created low-flow conditions that amplified the 2 °C basin-scale …

Climate Change Impacts On Southern Ross Sea Phytoplankton Composition, Productivity, And Export, Daniel E. Kaufman, Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs, Walker O. Smith Jr., Eileen E. Hofmann, Michael S. Dinniman, John C. P. Hemmings

CCPO Publications

The Ross Sea, a highly productive region of the Southern Ocean, is expected to experience warming during the next century along with reduced summer sea ice concentrations and shallower mixed layers. This study investigates how these climatic changes may alter phytoplankton assemblage composition, primary productivity, and export. Glider measurements are used to force a one-dimensional biogeochemical model, which includes diatoms and both solitary and colonial forms of Phaeocystis antarctica. Model performance is evaluated with glider observations, and experiments are conducted using projections of physical drivers for mid-21st and late-21st century. These scenarios reveal a 5% increase in primary productivity …

A Walk On The Wild Side: Disturbance Dynamics And The Conservation And Management Of European Mountain Forest Ecosystems, Dominik Kulakowski, Rupert Seidl, Jan Holeksa, Timo Kuuluvainen, Thomas A. Nagel, Momchil Panayotov, Miroslav Svoboda, Simon Thorn, Giorgio Vacchiano, Cathy Whitlock, Thomas Wohlgemuth, Peter Bebi

Geography

Mountain forests are among the most important ecosystems in Europe as they support numerous ecological, hydrological, climatic, social, and economic functions. They are unique relatively natural ecosystems consisting of long-lived species in an otherwise densely populated human landscape. Despite this, centuries of intensive forest management in many of these forests have eclipsed evidence of natural processes, especially the role of disturbances in long-term forest dynamics. Recent trends of land abandonment and establishment of protected forests have coincided with a growing interest in managing forests in more natural states. At the same time, the importance of past disturbances highlighted in an …

Watershed Response To Climate Change And Fire-Burns In The Upper Umatilla River Basin, Usa, Kimberly Crystal Yazzie, Heejun Chang

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

This study analyzed watershed response to climate change and forest fire impacts in the upper Umatilla River Basin (URB), Oregon, using the precipitation runoff modeling system. Ten global climate models using Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 experiments with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to simulate the effects of climate and fire-burns on runoff behavior throughout the 21st century. We observed the center timing (CT) of flow, seasonal flows, snow water equivalent (SWE) and basin recharge. In the upper URB, hydrologic regime shifts from a snow-rain-dominated to rain-dominated basin. Ensemble mean CT occurs 27 days earlier in …

Assessment Of An Atmospheric Transport Model For Annual Inverse Estimates Of California Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Justin Bagley, Seongeun Jeong, Xinguang Cui, Sally Newman, Jingsong Zhang, Chad Priest, Mixtli Campos-Pineda, Arlyn Andrews, Laura Bianco, Matthew Lloyd, Neil Lareau, Craig Clements, Marc Fischer

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Atmospheric inverse estimates of gas emissions depend on transport model predictions, hence driving a need to assess uncertainties in the transport model. In this study we assess the uncertainty in WRF-STILT (Weather Research and Forecasting and Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport) model predictions using a combination of meteorological and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements. WRF configurations were selected to minimize meteorological biases using meteorological measurements of winds and boundary layer depths from surface stations and radar wind profiler sites across California. We compare model predictions with CO measurements from four tower sites in California from June 2013 through May 2014 to assess …

Contributions Of Wood Smoke And Vehicle Emissions To Ambient Concentrations Of Volatile Organic Compounds And Particulate Matter During The Yakima Wintertime Nitrate Study, Graham Vanderschelden, Benjamin De Foy, Courtney Herring, Susan D. Kaspari, Tim Vanreken, Bertram Jobson

All Faculty Scholarship for the College of the Sciences

A multiple linear regression (MLR) chemical mass balance model was applied to data collected during an air quality field experiment in Yakima, WA, during January 2013 to determine the relative contribution of residential wood combustion (RWC) and vehicle emissions to ambient pollutant levels. Acetonitrile was used as a chemical tracer for wood burning and nitrogen oxides (NOx) as a chemical tracer for mobile sources. RWC was found to be a substantial source of gas phase air toxics in wintertime. The MLR model found RWC primarily responsible for emissions of formaldehyde (73%), acetaldehyde (69%), and black carbon (55%) and mobile sources …

Ozone Depletion, A Big Threat To Climate Change: What Can Be Done?, Sumera Aziz Ali, Savera Aziz Ali, Nadir Suhail

Community Health Sciences

Ozone in the stratosphere is very important as it acts as a safeguard for the earth and protects life from harmful ultraviolet radiations coming from the sun. Depletion of stratospheric ozone, resulting from atmospheric pollution has led to increased ultraviolet radiation at the earth’s surface as well as spectral shifts to the more biologically damaging shorter wavelengths. A decrease in the concentration of stratospheric ozone enhances the solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, which is harmful to the growth of the plant and various other metabolic processes of the organisms and might cause changes in pigment concentrations, nucleic acids, and proteins. Multiple …

Estimating Methane Emissions From Biological And Fossil-Fuel Sources In The San Francisco Bay Area, Seongeun Jeong, Xinguang Cui, Donald Blake, Ben Miller, Stephen Montzka, Arlyn Andrews, Abhinav Guha, Philip Martien, Ray Bambha, Brian Lafranchi, Hope Michelsen, Craig Clements, Pierre Glaize, Marc Fischer

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

We present the first sector-specific analysis of methane (CH4) emissions from the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) using CH4 and volatile organic compound (VOC) measurements from six sites during September – December 2015. We apply a hierarchical Bayesian inversion to separate the biological from fossil-fuel (natural gas and petroleum) sources using the measurements of CH4 and selected VOCs, a source-specific 1 km CH4 emission model, and an atmospheric transport model. We estimate that SFBA CH4 emissions are 166–289 Gg CH4/yr (at 95% confidence), 1.3–2.3 times higher than a recent inventory with much of the underestimation from landfill. Including the VOCs, …

The Irreversible Momentum Of Clean Energy, Barack Obama

United States Department of Energy: Publications

The release of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) due to human activity is increasing global average surface air temperatures, disrupting weather patterns, and acidifying the ocean. Left unchecked, the continued growth of GHG emissions could cause global average temperatures to increase by another 4°C or more by 2100 and by 1.5 to 2 times as much in many midcontinent and far northern locations. Although our understanding of the impacts of climate change is increasingly and disturbingly clear, there is still debate about the proper course for U.S. policy—a debate that is very much on display …

Implications Of Sea Ice On Southern Ocean Microseisms Detected By A Seismic Array In West Antarctica, Martin J. Pratt, Douglas A. Wiens, J. Paul Winberry, Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Garrett G. Euler

All Faculty Scholarship for the College of the Sciences

The proximity of Southern Ocean storms coupled with seasonal variation in sea ice make Antarctica ideal for the study of microseism sources. We explore frequency-dependent beamforming results using a short-duration, 60 km aperture, broad-band seismic array located on the Whillans Ice Stream, West Antarctica. Locations of single-frequency microseism (13–16 s period) generation are in regions where the continental shelf is ice-free, consistent with previous studies, and show Rayleigh wave sources remaining at consistent backazimuths throughout the duration of the array. Beamforming analysis of daily noise correlations shows that long-period double-frequency microseisms (9–11 s) consist predominantly of Rayleigh waves excited by …

Application Of Recurrent Neural Networks For Drought Projections In California, J. A. Le, Hesham El-Askary, Mohamed Allali, Daniele C. Struppa

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

We use recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to investigate the complex interactions between the long-term trend in dryness and a projected, short but intense, period of wetness due to the 2015-2016 El Niño. Although it was forecasted that this El Niño season would bring significant rainfall to the region, our long-term projections of the Palmer Z Index (PZI) showed a continuing drought trend, contrasting with the 1998-1999 El Niño event. RNN training considered PZI data during 1896-2006 that was validated against the 2006-2015 period to evaluate the potential of extreme precipitation forecast. We achieved a statistically significant correlation of 0.610 between …

The Gettysburg Economic Review, Volume 10, Spring 2017

Gettysburg Economic Review

No abstract provided.

Burundi : Water Scarcity, Isabel Salas

Global Public Health

Burundi is located near the African great lakes region of East Africa. This country is one of the poorest and hungriest countries throughout the world because of this they are facing multiple problems with communicable disease. These families are seeing a reduction in the amount of water available to them and based on this they are receiving water from external sources such as wells and lakes. Most of the water throughout Burundi is contaminated with Phytoplankton which increase cholera outbreaks in this area. It has also been shown that uranium impacts the water throughout the wells and lakes. Both of …

An Analysis Of China’S Regional Emissions Trading System: Challenges And Lessons, Ronghui (Kevin) Zhou

Bard Center for Environmental Policy

China, the largest carbon dioxide emitter in the world, has faced environmental pressures both internationally and domestically over the last ten years. In early 2011, the Chinese government approved a carbon emissions trading program in seven cities and provinces, and started planning a national emissions trading framework. This thesis reviews these pilot programs and examines the issues that underlie them. Drawing lessons from the U.S. Acid Rain Program, the European Union’s ETS, and California’s CAT, the three largest emissions trading frameworks in the world, I find that: (1) lack of trades in China’s pilot programs is a consequence of permit …

Climate Change In The Hudson River Estuary: Promoting Adaptation And Resilience Through Stakeholder Engagement In Design And Visualization, Gabrielle S.D. Weiss

Bard Center for Environmental Policy

In response to the growing risk to communities from climate change impacts, Professor Cerra at the Cornell University School of Landscape Architecture developed the Climate Adaptive Design (CAD) program. CAD is being implemented as a partnership between the Hudson River Estuary Program (Estuary Program) and Cornell that utilizes participatory design and visualization to engage communities about planning for future climate impacts. The goal of CAD is to build climate resilience, galvanize community participation and education, and build links to external sources of support including local institutions of higher education. This thesis outlines background for the development of the program and …

Is There A Path For Green Growth? Evidence From India, Thuc Anh Thi Trinh

Gettysburg Economic Review

This paper uses historical temperature fluctuations in India to identify its effects on economic growth rates. Using a climate-adjusted form of the Solow growth model, I find that one degree Celsius increase in temperature decreases GDP per capita growth by 0.71%. This finding informs debates over the role of climate on economic development and suggests the possibility of a green path for economic growth, a policy agenda that is both sustainable and pro-growth.

Why Do Different Drought Indices Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes In The U.S. Great Plains?, Song Feng, Miroslav Trnka, Michael Hayes, Yongjun Zheng

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the U.S. Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, the authors analyzed the soil moisture at the near-surface soil layer and the entire soil column, as well as the Palmer drought severity index, the Palmer Z index, and the standardized precipitation and evaporation index using the output from the Community Climate System Model, version …

Upper Blue Nile Basin Water Budget From A Multi-Model Perspective, Hahn Chul Jung, Augusto Getirana, Frederick Policelli, Amy Mcnally, Kristi R. Arsenault, Sujay Kumar, Tsegaye Tadesse, Christa D. Peters-Lidard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based …

Climate Change And Population Growth Impacts On Surface Water Supply And Demand Of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Bisrat Kifle Arsiso, Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu, Gerrit Hendrik Stoffberg, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study includes analysis of water consumption, hydrological information and climate data which is statistically downscaled using approach used to generate climate data available at the Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 …

Agricultural Trade Publications And The 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought: A Missed Opportunity For Climate Risk Communication, Sarah P. Church, Tonya Haigh, Melissa Widhalm, Silvestre Garcia De Jalon, Nicholas Babin, J. Stuart Carlton, Michael Dunn, Katie Fagan, Cody L. Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Midwestern United States experienced a devastating drought in 2012, leading to reduced corn and soybean yields and increased instances of pests and disease. Climate change induced weather variability and extremes are expected to increase in the future, and have and will continue to impact the agricultural sector. This study investigated how agricultural trade publications portrayed the 2012 U.S. Midwestern drought, whether climate change was associated with drought, and whether these publications laid out transformative adaptation measures farmers could undertake in order to increase their adaptive capacity for future climate uncertainty. We performed a content analysis of 1000 media reports …

Information Mining From Heterogeneous Data Sources: A Case Study On Drought Predictions, Getachew B. Demisse, Tsegaye Tadesse, Solomon Atnafu, Shawndra Hill, Brian D. Wardlow, Yared Bayissa, Andualem Shiferaw

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this study was to develop information mining methodology for drought modeling and predictions using historical records of climate, satellite, environmental, and oceanic data. The classification and regression tree (CART) approach was used for extracting drought episodes at different time-lag prediction intervals. Using the CART approach, a number of successful model trees were constructed, which can easily be interpreted and used by decision makers in their drought management decisions. The regression rules produced by CART were found to have correlation coefficients from 0.71–0.95 in rules-alone modeling. The accuracies of the models were found to be higher in the …

Socio-Environmental Drought Response In A Mixed Urban-Agricultural Setting: Synthesizing Biophysical And Governance Responses In The Platte River Watershed, Nebraska, Usa, Samuel C. Zipper, Kelly Helm Smith, Betsy Breyer, Jianxiao Qui, Anthony Kung, Dustin Herrmann

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Ensuring global food and water security requires a detailed understanding of how coupled socio-environmental systems respond to drought. Using the Platte River Watershed in Nebraska (USA) as an exemplar mixed urban-agricultural watershed, we quantify biophysical response to drought in urban (Lincoln NE) and agricultural systems alongside a qualitative analysis of governance response and adaptive capacity of both sectors. Synthesis of results highlights parallels and discontinuities between urban and agricultural preparations for and response to drought. Whereas drought prompted an increase in well installations and expansion of water-intensive crops, e.g., corn, in the agricultural sector, outdoor water use restrictions rapidly curtailed …

Cocorahs Observers Contribute To “Condition Monitoring” In The Carolinas: A New Initiative Addresses Needs For Drought Impacts Information, Kirsten Lackstrom, Amanda Farris, David Eckhardt, Nolan Doesken, Henry Reges, Julian Turner, Kelly Helm Smith, Rebecca Ward

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

High Plains Regional Climate Center (Poster)

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The HPRCC provides the public with several ways to access climate data and information. Whether via direct contact, website access, or through a subscription to one of HPRCC’s online services, users can acquire a variety of climate data products, such as: • Near Real-Time and Historical Climate Data • National and Regional Climate Data Maps • Agricultural Climate Products • Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Regional Climate Summaries

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- January 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Jamie Lahowetz, Bill Sorensen, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

30th anniversary......................1

Stakeholder engagement activities......................................2

Product highlights..................3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

Services update........................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Tourism Business Resilience For Coastal Virginia Assessment Report, Lindsay E. Usher, Michelle Covi, Juita-Elena Wie Yusuf, Kaitlin Giles, Elizabeth Armistead Andrews, Angela King, Sashenka Brauer, Rebecca Ribley

Commonwealth Center for Recurrent Flooding Resiliency (CCRFR): Reports

This report summarizes the results of the Tourism Business Resilience Project conducted by the Commonwealth Center for Recurrent Flooding Resiliency and Virginia Sea Grant. This project was a joint effort by faculty and students from the Old Dominion University Resilience Collaborative and the Virginia Coastal Policy Center at the William & Mary Law School.

Life In Hampton Roads Survey Press Release #5: Sea Level Rise And Flooding, Social Science Research Center, Old Dominion University

Life in Hampton Roads Survey Report

[Introductory paragraph]

This report examines regional measures of environmental risk perceptions from the 2017 Life In Hampton Roads survey (LIHR 2017) conducted by the Old Dominion University Social Science Research Center. Data from prior years is also provided when available to show comparisons in responses over time. Responses were weighted by city population, race, age, gender, and phone usage (cell versus land-line) to be representative of the Hampton Roads region.