Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Ecological Risk Assessment Of Managed Relocation As A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, Aviv Karasov-Olson, Mark W. Schwartz, Julian D. Olden, Sarah Skikne, Jessica J. Hellmann, Sarah Allen, Christy Brigham, Danielle Buttke, David J. Lawrence, Abraham J. Miller-Rushing, Jeffrey T. Morisette, Gregor W. Schuurman, Melissa Trammell, Cat Hawkins Hoffman

United States National Park Service: Publications

Executive Summary

Changing climate and introduced species are placing an increasing number of species at risk of extinction. Increasing extinction risk is increasing calls to protect species by relocating, or translocating, them to locations with more favorable biotic or climatic conditions. Managed relocation, or assisted migration, of species entails risks to both the conservation target organisms being moved as well as the recipient ecosystems into which they are moved.

Recognizing this risk, calls have been made for practitioners interested in considering a managed relocation project to engage in a serious risk assessment prior to advancing a project. We engaged a …

Comprehensive Record Of Volcanic Eruptions In The Holocene (11,000 Years) From The Wais Divide, Antarctica Ice Core, Jihong Cole-Dai, David G. Harris, Joshua A. Kennedy, Michael Sigl, Joseph R. Mcconnell, T. J. Fudge, Lei Geng, Olivia J. Maselli, Kendrick C. Taylor, Joseph M. Souney

Ice Core and Environmental Chemistry Lab Datasets and Publications

A comprehensive record (WHV2020) of explosive volcanic eruptions in the last 11,000 years is reconstructed from the West Antarctica Ice Sheet Divide deep ice core (WDC). The chronological list of 426 large volcanic eruptions in the Southern Hemisphere and the low latitudes during the Holocene are of the highest quality of all volcanic records from ice cores, owing to the high-resolution chemical measurement of the ice core and the exceptionally accurate WDC timescale. No apparent trend is found in the frequency (number of eruptions per millennium) of volcanic eruptions, and the number of eruptions in the most recent millennium (1,000–2,000 …

The Drought Monitor Comes Of Age, Brad Rippey, Brian Fuchs, David Simeral, Deborah J. Bathke, Richard R. Heim Jr., Mark Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The 20th century featured immense scientific discoveries and advances. Astrophysics gained Einstein’s life-altering theory of relativity, opening the door to nuclear weaponry and the mind-bending Big Bang theory. The medical field achieved stunning success in suppressing or vanquishing a host of deadly diseases, including polio and smallpox. And through advances in computing technology, meteorological forecasting moved from back-of-the-envelope calculations to supercomputers. However, drought monitoring fell behind the curve of scientific advancement. Not until 1965, when the United States Department of Commerce published Wayne C. Palmer’s “Research Paper No. 45: Meteorological Drought,” was there even a complex mathematical definition of drought. …

Improving Airfield Pavement Degradation Prediction Skill With Local Climate And Traffic, Evan M. Fortney

Theses and Dissertations

Airfield pavements are a critical component of the global transportation network that provide a platform for national defense. Preventative and corrective maintenance activities are founded upon accurate expectations of degradation. The leading pavement management software creates degradation predictions from pavement groups using age as the IV and current state conditions as the DV. For this work, a framework is created and implemented that utilizes a PCR model to build upon accepted practices for degradation modeling to enhance and possibly augment future prediction capabilities. The model was applied to pairs of location and pavement family and reveals several findings: the selected …

Climate-Informed Prediction And Forecast Modeling Of Installation Total Energy Consumption, Scott C. Weiss

Theses and Dissertations

Climate variability is an external and stochastic factor that causes energy demand uncertainty. Energy managers can use climate-based models to understand future trends of energy demand and to adjust operations, policy, and budgets accordingly. This research focuses on 1) identifying how climate attributes impact energy use, 2) creating a historically informed statistical modeling framework to skillfully predict energy use, and 3) forecasting future changes to energy use and costs, using CMIP5 temperature projections, at the campus level. After synthesizing the existing breadth of research on climate-informed energy modeling, a skillful, unbiased, climate-informed total energy consumption prediction model is developed for …

2021 March - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Jessica Whitehead Named Joan P. Brock Endowed Executive Director For Old Dominion University’S Institute For Coastal Adaptation And Resilience (Icar), Sarah Huddle

News Items

No abstract provided.

The Biden Climate Plan, J. David Aiken

Cornhusker Economics

President Obama had an aggressive climate plan that included regulation of carbon emissions from power plants. Hillary Clinton would have continued with aggressive policies to slow and reverse global warming but was defeated by Donald Trump in 2016. President Trump sought to undo most of President Obama’s climate policies and pursued a fossil-fuel friendly energy and climate policy. The 2020 election of President Biden marks a resumption of ambitious policies to slow and ultimately reverse global warming. This newsletter identifies three major policies the Biden administration is expected to pursue and attempts to explain what policy implication might look like.

Diurnal Cycle Of Passive Microwave Brightness Temperatures Over Land At A Global Scale, Zahra Sharifnezhad, Hamid Norouzi, Satya Prakash, Reginald Blake, Reze Khanbilvard

Publications and Research

Satellite-borne passive microwave radiometers provide brightness temperature (TB) measurements in a large spectral range which includes a number of frequency channels and generally two polarizations: horizontal and vertical. These TBs are widely used to retrieve several atmospheric and surface variables and parameters such as precipitation, soil moisture, water vapor, air temperature profile, and land surface emissivity. Since TBs are measured at different microwave frequencies with various instruments and at various incidence angles, spatial resolutions, and radiometric characteristics, a mere direct integration of them from different microwave sensors would not necessarily provide consistency. However, when appropriately harmonized, they can provide a …

Estimated 2020 Co2 Emission Reductions In Virginia’S Transportation Sector From Covid-19, Eden E. Rakes, Pamela R. Grothe, Jeremy S. Hoffman

Virginia Journal of Science

The initial lockdown phase of the COVID-19 pandemic presented an unfortunate opportunity to observe how abrupt, large-scale changes in traffic volume can reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This study explores how carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from Virginia’s transportation sector may have been affected by the changes in activity stemming from COVID-19 to inform more carbon-neutral policies as the state recovers from the economic downfall. Emission savings were calculated by multiplying the percent change from 2019 to 2020 in traffic volume from the Virginia Department of Transportation with the business-as-usual 2020 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimate of CO₂ emissions …

Flash Drought Onset Over The Contiguous United States: Sensitivity Of Inventories And Trends To Quantitative Definitions, Mahmoud Osman, Bejamin F. Zaitchik, Hamada S. Badr, Jordan I. Christian, Tsegaye Tadesse, Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The term “flash drought” is frequently invoked to describe droughts that develop rapidly over a relatively short timescale. Despite extensive and growing research on flash drought processes, predictability, and trends, there is still no standard quantitative definition that encompasses all flash drought characteristics and pathways. Instead, diverse definitions have been proposed, supporting wide-ranging studies of flash drought but creating the potential for confusion as to what the term means and how to characterize it. Use of different definitions might also lead to different conclusions regarding flash drought frequency, predictability, and trends under climate change. In this study, we compared five …

Weather And Climate Summary And Forecast: February 2021 Report, Gregory V. Jones

Linfield University Wine Studies Reports

This report provides a summary of the weather and climate forecast for February 2021. It includes forecast information specific to the Pacific Northwest and the western United States, as well as forecast information for other portions of the United States and abroad.

2021 February - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Implications Of Covid-19 On Progress In The Un Conventions On Biodiversity And Climate Change, Andrea Monica D. Ortiz, Alaya M. De Leon, Justine Nicole V. Torres, Cecilia Therese T. Guiao, Antonio Gabriel M. La Viña

Environmental Science Faculty Publications

2020 was to be a landmark year for setting targets to stop biodiversity loss and prevent dangerous climate change. However, COVID-19 has caused delays to the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP) of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity and the 26th COP of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Negotiations on the Global Biodiversity Framework and the second submission of Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement were due to take place at these COPs. There is uncertainty as to how the COVID-19 disruption will affect the negotiations, whether parties will pursue more ambitious actions or take a …

Coastal Watershed Monitoring And Management: Geomorphology, Geochemistry, And Hydrologic Modeling Of Los Peñasquitos Creek, Ca, Ravleen Khalsa-Basra

Theses

Rivers in semi-arid climates are directly influenced by local geographic and hydrologic conditions and impacted by modifications to hydrology via urbanization. Changes can influence erosion, morphology, habitat sustainability, and watershed health. In highly urbanized southern California coastal regions, these rare open spaces provide vital ecosystem services. Los Peñasquitos Creek in San Diego County is one such watershed. Using stream surveying and laboratory methods we quantified channel characteristics, grain size distribution, total metal concentration [M], organic carbon (%OC), and phosphate to longitudinally characterize the creek for improved management. Results identified three distinct reaches in the watershed (upper, middle, lower). Downstream, depth …

Atlantic Sailfish (Istiophorus Albicans) Distribution Off The East Coast Of Florida From 2003 To 2018 In Response To Sea Surface Temperature, Meredith M. Pratt

Mako: NSU Undergraduate Student Journal

The Atlantic sailfish (Istiophorus albicans) ranges from 40°N to 40°S in the Western Atlantic Ocean and has great economic and recreational value for sport fishers. Off the east coast of Florida, recreational fishing boats often target this species due to its size, speed and strength. This project aimed to determine the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and the distribution of Atlantic sailfish caught and released over a fifteen-year period (2003 to 2018). Tagging information was collected from The Billfish Foundation and NOAA who have the most extensive programs for billfish. Using the time and location of each …

A Continental-Scale Assessment Of Density, Size, Distribution And Historical Trends Of Farm Dams Using Deep Learning Convolutional Neural Networks, Martino E. Malerba, Nicholas J. Wright, Peter I. Macreadie

Climate Science Research Articles

Farm dams are a ubiquitous limnological feature of agricultural landscapes worldwide. While their primary function is to capture and store water, they also have disproportionally large effects on biodiversity and biogeochemical cycling, with important relevance to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the abundance and distribution of farm dams is unknown in most parts of the world. Therefore, we used artificial intelligence and remote sensing data to address this critical global information gap. Specifically, we trained a deep learning convolutional neural network (CNN) on high-definition satellite images to detect farm dams and carry out the first continental-scale assessment on density, …

Professors Study Evacuation Practices, Marcus Coles

News Items

No abstract provided.

Odu To Lead Coastal Virginia Consortium, Sherry Dibarri

News Items

No abstract provided.

Weather And Climate Summary And Forecast: January 2021 Report, Gregory V. Jones

Linfield University Wine Studies Reports

This report provides a summary of the weather and climate forecast for January 2021. It includes forecast information specific to the Pacific Northwest and the western United States, as well as forecast information for other portions of the United States and abroad.

Valuation Of Drought Information: Understanding The Value Of The Us Drought Monitor In Land Management, Tingting Liu, Richard Krop, Tonya Haigh, Kelly Helm Smith, Mark D. Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Droughts affect recreation and tourism, grazing, forests, and timber, and can have important indirect effects for the ecosystems and species that rely on water. Despite its importance, the effect of drought in the land management sector is less understood than in other water-intensive sectors, such as agriculture and public water supplies. This study presents the first-ever estimates of the economic valuation of the information provided by the U.S. Drought Monitor using the avoided cost method. These estimates are based on the time and labor saved by using the U.S. Drought Monitor rather than compiling drought-related information from other sources, or …

2021 January - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Vintage 2020: Rogue Valley Reference Vineyard Report, Gregory V. Jones

Linfield University Wine Studies Reports

This report describes the impacts of climate and phenology on vintage for the Rogue Valley in Oregon in 2020. A mild and dry winter in 2019-20 was followed by a dry growing season continuing the ongoing drought concerns for Oregon and the majority of the western US. The spring was relatively cool with mild frosts into early May, then followed by wide swings between early season heat then cool, wet conditions leading up to and during flowering. The result was widespread issues with fruit set leading to generally high amounts of shatter, smaller berries and clusters for many in the …

Vintage Report 2020: North Willamette Valley, Gregory V. Jones

Linfield University Wine Studies Reports

This report describes the impacts of climate and phenology on vintage for the North Willamette Valley in Oregon in 2020. A mild and dry winter in 2019-20 was followed by a dry growing season continuing the ongoing drought concerns for Oregon and the majority of the western US. The spring was relatively cool with mild frosts in early April, then followed by wide swings between early season heat then cool, wet conditions leading up to and during flowering. The result was widespread issues with fruit set leading to generally high amounts of shatter, smaller berries and clusters for many in …

Vintage 2020: Umpqua Valley Reference Vineyard Report, Gregory V. Jones

Linfield University Wine Studies Reports

This report describes the impacts of climate and phenology on vintage for the Umpqua Valley in Oregon in 2020. A mild and dry winter in 2019-20 was followed by a dry growing season continuing the ongoing drought concerns for Oregon and the majority of the western US. The spring was relatively cool in the Umpqua Valley with mild frosts into mid-April, then followed by wide swings between early season heat then cool, wet conditions leading up to and during flowering. The result was widespread issues with fruit set leading to generally high amounts of shatter, smaller berries and clusters for …

Observation Of New Particle Formation In The Northern Hemisphere At Altitude From 4 To 20 Km, Mohamed Saad

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

New particle formation (NPF) is investigated using measurements of aerosol size distributions and meteorological variables made in two continents, including USA and Europe. Despite the considerably different aerosol particle abundances among the sites, a common relationship was found between the characteristics of NPF events and the air mass convective and/or advective transport. CO and O3 act as tracers of tropospheric and stratospheric air, respectively, their statistical relationship can be used to quantify air mass characteristics and origins. The mixing ratio values of CO increased within the upper troposphere layer before/during NPF events, which may serve as an indicator of occurring …

Ranchers’ Use Of Drought Contingency Plans In Protective Action Decision Making, Tonya Haigh, Michael Hayes, Jolene Smyth, Linda Stalker Prokopy, Charles A. Francis, Mark Burbach

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought contingency planning is an increasingly common tool in the ranchers’ climate adaptation toolboxes, but its effect on drought response has not yet been evaluated. We use cognitive models of protective action decision making and planning to explore the effects of having a drought plan on the use of drought early warning information and drought response (and timing). Results of a cross-sectional, probability-based survey of livestock producers affected by a 2016 flash-drought are used to describe the characteristics of operations with drought plans and provide evidence of whether having a plan predicts drought information use and response. While larger operations …

Whose Ground Truth Is It? Harvesting Lessons From Missouri’S 2018 Bumper Crop Of Drought Observations, Kelly Helm Smith, Mark E. Burbach, Michael Hayes, Patrick Guinan, Andrew Tyre, Brian Fuchs, Tonya Haigh, Mark Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought-related decision-making and policy should go beyond numeric hydrometeorological data to incorporate information on how drought affects people, livelihoods, and ecosystems. The effects of drought are nested within environmental and human systems, and relevant data may not exist in readily accessible form. For example, drought may reduce forage growth, compounded by both late-season freezes and management decisions. An effort to gather crowdsourced drought observations in Missouri in 2018 yielded a much higher number of observations than did previous related efforts. Here we examine 1) the interests, circumstances, history, and recruitment messaging that coincided to produce a high number of reports …

Tweetdrought: A Deep-Learning Drought Impacts Recognizer Based On Twitter Data, Beichen Zhang, Frank Schilder, Kelly Helm Smith, Michael Hayes, Sherri Harms, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Acquiring a better understanding of drought impacts becomes increasingly vital under a warming climate. Traditional drought indices describe mainly biophysical variables and not impacts on social, economic, and environmental systems. We utilized natural language processing and bidirectional encoder representation from Transformers (BERT) based transfer learning to fine-tune the model on the data from the news-based Drought Impact Report (DIR) and then apply it to recognize seven types of drought impacts based on the filtered Twitter data from the United States. Our model achieved a satisfying macro-F1 score of 0.89 on the DIR test set. The model was then applied to …

Developing A Strategy For The National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network, Michael H. Cosh, Todd G. Caldwell, C. Bruce Baker, John D. Bolten, Nathan Edwards, Peter Goble, Heather Hofman, Tyson E. Ochsner, Steven Quiring, Charles Schalk, Marina Skumanich, Mark D. Svoboda, Mary E. Woloszyn

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Soil moisture is a critical land surface variable, affecting a wide variety of climatological, agricultural, and hydrological processes. Determining the current soil moisture status is possible via a variety of methods, including in situ monitoring, remote sensing, and numerical modeling. Although all of these approaches are rapidly evolving, there is no cohesive strategy or framework to integrate these diverse information sources to develop and disseminate coordinated national soil moisture products that will improve our ability to understand climate variability. The National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network initiative has developed a national strategy for network coordination with NOAA’s National Integrated Drought …