Mathematics Commons^™

Likelihood-Based Inference For Random Networks With Changepoints, Daniel Cirkovic, Tiandong Wang, Xianyang Zhang

Mathematical and Statistical Science Faculty Research and Publications

Generative, temporal network models play an important role in analyzing the dependence structure and evolution patterns of complex networks. Due to the complicated nature of real network data, it is often naive to assume that the underlying data-generative mechanism itself is invariant with time. Such observation leads to the study of changepoints or sudden shifts in the distributional structure of the evolving network. In this paper, we propose a likelihood-based methodology to detect changepoints in undirected, affine preferential attachment networks where, upon introduction, a new node selects one old to attach to with probability proportional to its degree. In particular, …

Infimum Dimension Nash Embeddings For 2d Projective Shape Analysis, Robert L. Paige, Vic Patrangenaru

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

Vector embeddings make complicated data extracted from networks, words and images, more amendable to data science applications. At the present time, the Veronese-Whitney (VW) matrix embedding of the real projective space is the state of the art for making inference about digital images from an uncalibrated camera, such as a cell phone or security camera. In this work we consider vector embeddings for the projective shape data and in particular determine the minimum dimension isometric (distance-preserving or Nash) vector embedding for a projective space. We determine such an embedding for the projective plane in closed-form. From this embedding we determine …

Integer-Valued Time Series Model Via Copula-Based Bivariate Skellam Distribution, Mohammed Alqawba, Norou Diawara, Mame Mor Sene

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Time series analysis is crucial for modeling and forecasting diverse real-world phenomena. Traditional models typically assume continuous-valued data; however, many applications involve integer-valued series, often including negative integers. This paper introduces an approach that combines copula theory with the bivariate Skellam distribution to handle such integer-valued data effectively. Copulas are widely recognized for capturing complex dependencies among variables. By integrating copulas, our proposed method respects integer constraints while modeling positive, negative, and temporal dependencies accurately. Through simulation and an empirical study on a real-life example, we demonstrate that our class of models performs well. This approach has broad applicability in …

Traveling Waves For A Diffusive Sir Epidemic Model With Delay In The Diffusion Term, William Barker

Faculty Scholarship

This paper investigates the existence of traveling waves in a diffusive SIR model with delay incorporated in the diffusion terms and a nonlinear incidence rate with delay. By employing a cross-iteration scheme and partial monotonicity conditions, we establish that the existence of quasi-upper and lower solutions, along with suitable super and sub-solutions, provides sufficient conditions for the existence of a traveling wavefront. This existence result is obtained via Schauder’s fixed-point theorem. Furthermore, given an appropriate basic reproduction number, the traveling wavefront transitions from the disease-free steady state to the endemic steady state. To illustrate our approach, we explicitly construct super- …

Machine Learning-Based Intrusion Detection System For Iot Networks Using The Rt-Iot 2022 Dataset, Bukunmi Ebenezer Afolabi

Theses, Dissertations and Capstones

The rapid expansion of the Internet of Things (IoT) has transformed modern computing by enabling seamless connectivity among heterogeneous devices across diverse application domains. However, this increased interconnectivity has significantly enlarged the attack surface of IoT networks, exposing them to a wide range of sophisticated cyber threats. Conventional security mechanisms often lack the capability to detect emerging attacks in real time, thereby necessitating the development of intelligent Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) capable of accurately identifying malicious network activities. This study developed and evaluated a machine learning-based intrusion detection framework for multiclass IoT attack detection using the RT-IoT2022 dataset. The dataset …

Entropic Dynamics Approach To The Classical Limit Of Quantum Mechanics: Decoupling Of The Center Of Mass Motion For A Mesoscopic Particle, Fatimah Judayba

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

In the Entropic Dynamics (ED) approach, quantum mechanics is derived from the principles of entropic inference and information geometry. The ED approach differs from other interpretations by making a clear commitment to distinguishing which variables are ontic (real) and which are epistemic. The classical limit for the center of mass (CM) coordinate is achieved for a large number of particles, M →∞, while Planck’s constant ℏ remains finite. Typically, the emergence of the classical limit requires decoherence through interactions with the external environment. In this work, we investigate whether the classical behavior of the CM coordinate in a mesoscopic system …

Analyzing Sleep Architecture And Brain State Transitions Via Hidden Markov Models On Fmri Data, Brileigh Jay Cates

Masters Theses

Sleep is associated with systematic changes in brain activity and functional connectivity observable in functional magnetic resonance imagining (fMRI) signals. Because subjects often fall asleep during resting-state experiments, the absence of vigilance monitoring can confound the interpretation of resting-state dynamics. Although electroencephalography (EEG) is the gold standard for sleep staging, simultaneous EEG-fMRI acquisition is not always feasible.

This study investigates whether sleep stages can be inferred directly from fMRI using a probabilistic latent-state framework. Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are applied to blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) time series to identify latent brain states and their temporal transitions. Inferred states are aligned with EEG-derived …

Transformer-Based Language Models For Bitcoin Market Prediction And Interpretation, Erich Gozebina

Masters Theses

"In the context of a Master's thesis in applied mathematics, this work investigates compact transformer-based language models as an instrument for Bitcoin-related predictions and decision support. The work connects three topics: the structure of the Bitcoin system and its data, the mathematical and algorithmic foundations of deep autoregressive transformers, and the design of practical training pipelines for financial applications. On this foundation, a reproducible ETL pipeline for Bitcoin data is developed and two forecasting experiments are conducted with the compact language model nanochat. The first experiment approaches the prediction of next-day price movements through autoregressive next-token generation based on structured …

Learning Weibull Loss Severity Models From Truncated And Censored Data, Majed Alkhasha

Graduate Studies Theses and Dissertations 2026

In modern actuarial science and risk management, due to various loss control mechanisms, observed severity losses are typically left-truncated at the deductible, right-censored at the policy limit, and scaled by a pre-specified co-insurance factor. This results in two types of actuarial payment random variables: payment-per-payment (PPP) and payment-per-loss (PPL). To learn ground-up Weibull loss severity models from PPP and PPL sample data, we implement two estimation techniques: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and the dynamic Method of Trimmed Moments (MTM). MLE is employed to obtain efficient estimates of the Weibull shape and scale parameters. However, MLE may assign unnecessarily large point …

Machine Learning For Predictive Energy And Emissions Modeling Of Vehicles And Power Grids In The United States, S M Tanvir Faysal Alam Chowdhoury

Dissertations

The environmental benefits of electric vehicle (EV) adoption depend on more than replacing internal combustion engine vehicles with electric powertrains. EV adoption reshapes electricity demand, interacts with regional generation mixes, and influences travel behavior and congestion, creating a coupled transportation-energy system in which vehicle and power-plant emissions must be evaluated together. This dissertation develops machine-learning frameworks for predicting energy consumption and emissions from vehicles and power grids under rising EV adoption. The first component forecasts grid emissions from EV charging. Using simulation data from NREL's Cambium database, a Prophet-based time-series framework predicts carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane emission rates …

Multivariate Quantile Autoregression-Mixed Data Sampling (Mvqar-Midas) Modeling Of Cost Of Living And Supply Chain Dynamics In Canada., Patrick Gbolonyo

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

In recent years, the rising cost of living as a result of persistent inflationary pressures, disruptions in the global supply chains, and changes in the macroeconomic landscape has become a critical topic of discussion. To address this, we move beyond a mean-based framework and employ a quantile regression approach. This allows the persistence of each series and the transmis- sion of shocks between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) (the total CPI which is a percentage change over the past 12 months), the Interest Rate (IR)(the target for the overnight rate), the New Housing Price Index (NHPI), and high-frequency supply chain …

All Games Have Equilibria, M. Ali Khan, Arthur Paul Pedersen, Maxwell B. Stinchcombe

Publications and Research

Research on Nash equilibrium existence for infinite games has grown into a patchwork of technical preconditions and counterexamples. This paper presents a unified program in equilibrium theory by revising the predominant model of mixed strategies based on countable additivity. A game is specified by a nonempty set of players and, for each player, a nonempty action set and a bounded von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function. Every such game is shown to admit a Nash equilibrium in finitely additive mixed strategies. In addition, the equilibrium correspondence for any such game is shown to be nonempty, compact-valued, and upper hemicontinuous, and the same …

On Sharpest Tail Bounds For Functions Of Tail Bounded Random Variables, Stephen Harrison

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

Consider n real/complex, independent/dependent random variables with respective tail bounds and g a measurable function of the r.v.’s. Consider f the “sharpest” tail bound of g (sharpest in the sense, if f were any less, then for some X1, ..., Xn satisfying the conditions, g(X1, ..., Xn) would not satisfy the tail f). Significant research has been done to approximate f often with high accuracy. These results are often of the form, for g in this family, and tail bounds of Xk in this family, f is bounded by some f′ with high accuracy. However, the question “what would it …

Error Reduction Methodology And Data Simulation For Interval Data, Ranik Christopher Jelinek

Undergraduate Honors Capstone Projects

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a progressive condition affecting hundreds of millions of individuals worldwide. However, clinical datasets often record continuous laboratory measurements as categorical intervals rather than precise numerical values. This interval-censored structure presents methodological challenges for standard regression-based classifiers. This study compares three strategies for handling interval-valued predictors prior to fitting a logistic LASSO model: (1) midpoint imputation, which replaces each interval with its arithmetic center; (2) ordinal encoding, which maps intervals to integer ranks; and (3) a Monte Carlo simulation approach, which repeatedly samples uniformly from each observed interval and averages predictions across replications. Using a 10-fold …

A Persistent Homology Framework For Scrna-Seq: Assessing Clustering Robustness And Quantifying Preprocessing And Integration Effects On Topological Features., Jonah Daneshmand

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

As single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) data expands, robust methods for integrating diverse datasets are critical. This dissertation applies Persistent Homology (PH), a technique from Topological Data Analysis (TDA), to a collection of scRNA-seq datasets spanning eight tissue types to quantify how data integration affects topological features and biological interpretability. We assessed global topological structure using Betti curves, Euler characteristics, and persistence landscapes across raw, normalized, and integrated data representations. Our analysis revealed a performance inversion: while conventional methods excelled on unintegrated data, high-granularity topological methods, particularly those sensitive to global data structure, became superior after integration. This suggests a synergy …

The Impact Of Transmission Thresholds Across Multiple Scales On The Spread Of Chronic Wasting Disease In Wisconsin, Jen Mcclure

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

Wildlife diseases can be difficult to control once they are established. This is especially true when they spread through contact with infectious material left in the environment. One such disease is chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal illness affecting deer and related species in North America and other regions. CWD is caused by prions, misfolded proteins that can remain infectious for years after shedding by infected hosts.

Recent research shows that CWD infection does not always follow from the gradual accumulation of prions through small contact events. Rather, an individual may need to encounter a certain prion dose all at …

Wacsaw: An Adaptive, Statistical Method To Classify Movement Into Sleep And Wakefulness States, Austin Vandegriffe, V. A. Samaranayake, Matthew S. Thimgan

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

Wearable actimeters can improve our understanding of sleep in the natural environments. Current algorithms may produce inaccuracies in specific individuals and circumstances, such as quiet wakefulness. New hardware allows data collection at higher frequencies enabling sophisticated analytical methods. We have developed a novel statistical algorithm, the Wasserstein Algorithm for Classifying Sleep and Wakefulness (WACSAW), to identify behavioral states from recordings of everyday movement. WACSAW employs optimal transport techniques to identify segments with differing activity variability. Functions characterizing the segments' movement distributions were clustered into two groups using a k-nearest neighbors and labeled as sleep or wake based on their proximity …

Implications Of The Attenuated Allee Effect On Population Dynamics, Dana Strong

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

The Allee effect is an ecological phenomenon characterized by a per capita growth rate that increases as the population size increases in the context of low population density. The Allee effect can lead to rapid extinction events. Consequently, ecologists can attempt to control the strength of the Allee effect to help increase the population (in the case of endangered species) or decrease the population (in the case of parasites or pests).

This research aimed to study not the strength of the Allee effect, but the intensity of the Allee effect, or how rapidly cooperation between individuals causes the per capita …

Content And Consequences: Impact Of Representation In Stem Higher Education Instructional Content On Marginalized Students, Nichole Ventura

Doctorate in Education

This qualitative study examined representation of historically marginalized students in STEM instructional content at the higher education level and its impact on their learning experiences. Despite growing diversity initiatives in STEM enrollment, curricular materials often fail to reflect the identities of underrepresented students. Using critical theory and interpretivist approaches, this research investigated how representation—or its absence—shapes students' sense of belonging, academic identity formation, and persistence. Through semi-structured interviews with undergraduate students from historically marginalized backgrounds, and purposeful sampling, this study captured the lived experiences of students engaging with STEM instructional materials. Interview protocols explored how students perceive their representation in …

Machine Learning Applications: Cell Tracking And Nonparametric Estimation Of Non-Smooth Divergences, Mina Mahbub Hossain

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

This thesis brings together two important research directions: how to compare different sets of data more accurately, and how to better understand how brain cancer cells move and change shape.

In the first part, we look at a problem in statistics: measuring how different two data sources are from each other. Traditional methods often make strong assumptions, which may not always hold in real situations. Our approach avoids those assumptions by using an ensemble method, a way of combining many weak estimators into one stronger result. This makes the method more flexible and reliable, especially when dealing with complex or …

A Leslie System For A Demographic Simulation: From An Actuarial Point Of View, David Kings

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops a discrete stochastic linear systems interpretation of age–stage demographic evolution grounded in Leslie operators and realized in a discrete-event simulation implemented with salabim. The central claim is that one annual cycle of the simulation constitutes a cone-preserving, stochastic affine transformation on a high- dimensional population state vector indexed by age, sex, marital status, household type, employment, and education, and that the composition of yearly operators yields a random matrix product whose top Lyapunov exponent is the stochastic counterpart of the Perron–Frobenius growth rate (Caswell, 2001; Tuljapurkar, 1997)[1, 2]. The actuarial bridge is constructed by mapping simulated survival …

(Si15-140) Designing Bayesian Double Sampling Plans Based On Zero Inflated Poisson Distribution, Priyadharshini R., Shalini K., Hemalatha R., Sangeetha S.

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

The implementation of attribute-based sampling inspection serves as a quality control technique used across numerous industries to evaluate items or workflow processes. When the data exhibits a substantial number of zero counts, the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution serves as an effective model for accommodating this zero-inflation. Double sampling plan (DSP) is a quality check method where the decision to approve or decline a batch comes after examining two samples, providing more conclusive information compared to a single sample plan (SSP). In practice, effective decision-making regarding submitted lots considers both within-lot and between-lot variations, which can be addressed through the use …

(Si15-142) Selection Of Single Sampling Plans Based On Zero Inflated Binomial Distribution Using Cost Optimization, Sangeetha S., Shalini K., Hemalatha R., Priyadharshini R.

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

Economic design of sampling plans involves creating sampling plans that minimize the total cost associated with the inspection process while ensuring quality. It aims to address the quality risk concerns of both producer and consumer, ensuring product quality while minimizing inspection costs. This article’s objective is to design single sampling plans by attributes based on Zero-inflated Binomial (ZIB) distribution, using cost optimization principles by developing an economic model aimed at achieving optimal total cost by considering the Average Total Inspection (ATI). Numerical illustration is provided to illustrate the selection of single sampling plans under ZIB distribution that minimizes producer’s total …

Long-Term Behavior Of Subordinated Branching Processes With Prevailing Emigration, George Yanev

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

This paper deals into the long-term behavior of subordinated critical branching processes with migration. We focus on scenarios where emi­gration is the dominant factor and introduce additional randomness in timing through a subordination mechanism, involving renewal processes. The key findings highlight how the initial population size and the interar­rival mean time influence both asymptotic behavior of the non-extinction probability and corresponding Yaglom type limit theorems. We also study an alternating regenerative process, when the population cycles between zero and positive states. This research complements previous studies for processes when immigration prevails over emigration.

Generalized Transversality Conditions For Fuzzy Quantum-Symmetric Variational Problems Via Granular Approach, Martin Bohner, Ewa Girejko, Agnieszka B. Malinowska, Linh Nguyen, Baruch Schneider, Tri Truong

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

This paper investigates fuzzy q-symmetric variational problems with natural boundary conditions. Based on the relative distance measure fuzzy arithmetic and horizontal membership functions (HMFs), we propose novel concepts of differentiability and integrability for fuzzy functions on quantum geometric subsets of real numbers. Then, fundamental foundations of q-symmetric calculus of variations based on HMFs are provided. With the help of HMFs and granular q-symmetric differentiability, we derive necessary optimality conditions for fuzzy q-symmetric variational problems that depend on free endpoints. Moreover, sufficient conditions for minimizers of q-symmetric variational problems are obtained. Some numerical examples illustrating the proposed approach are presented.

Novel Statistical And Topological Data Analyses Of 2d Electronic Images, Robert L. Paige, Vic Patrangenaru

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

In this paper, novel statistical and topological data analyses of 2D images are developed. One considers methodologies based on the Region Covariance Descriptor (RCD) and Topological Data Analysis (TDA) rooted in the simplicial as well as cubical persistent homologies. These methods provide statistical methods for data from populations of complex data objects that are elements of non-Euclidean spaces. The 2D image data considered consist of pictures of two leaves—A and B—from the same tree, twenty of each leaf, from different perspectives. The novel statistical procedures developed are used for correctly determining that leaf A images and leaf B images are …

Quantifying The Sensitivity Of Land Use Land Cover Metrics Through Simulation Techniques, Haley Burger

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

As human activities and climate change continue to reshape our landscape, understanding how land use changes over time is becoming increasingly important. Accurate ways to track and analyze these changes are essential for governments, businesses, and communities to make informed decisions. Monitoring agricultural land is particularly critical, as shifts in land use can impact food production and environmental pollutants. One of the primary tools used in the United States to monitor agricultural land is the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), an annual map created by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) from satellite images. While the CDL is highly accurate, …

A Novel Diastolic Doppler Index Less Affected By Aortic Arch Anomalies Co-Existing With Coarctation, Arash Ghorbannia, Andrew D. Spearman, Shahd Sawalhi, Ronald K. Woods, Mehdi Maadooliat, John F. Ladisa Jr.

Mathematical and Statistical Science Faculty Research and Publications

Severity assessment for coarctation of the aorta (CoA) is challenging due to concomitant morphological anomalies (complex CoA) and inaccurate Doppler-based indices. Promising diagnostic performance has been reported for the continuous flow pressure gradient (CFPG), but it has not been studied in complex CoA. Our objective was to characterize the effect of complex CoA and associated hemodynamics on CFPG in a clinical cohort. Retrospective analysis identified discrete juxtaductal (n = 25) and complex CoA (n = 43; transverse arch and/or isthmus hypoplasia) patients with arm-leg systolic blood pressure gradients (BPG) within 24 h of echocardiography for comparison to BPG …

Rethinking Iterative Proportional Fitting: Scalable And Hybrid Approaches To Joint Distribution Fitting, William Ofosu Agyapong

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

The Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) algorithm is widely used in contingency table estimation, survey weighting, and synthetic population generation due to its simplicity and strong theoretical foundation for matching observed marginal distributions. However, in high-dimensional settings, IPF faces substantial computational and memory demands, as well as statistical instability caused by sparse contingency tables. Moreover, IPF is less useful in modern population synthesis tasks that require both scalability and realism because, despite its superiority in matching known marginal distributions, it cannot produce realistic out-of-sample data points. To address these limitations, we first propose a blockwise IPF framework, in which the feature …

Bayes In The Brain: A Review Of Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World, (2024) By Tom Chivers., Michael T. Catalano

Numeracy

Tom Chivers’ Everything is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World, is an interesting and wide-ranging narrative on Bayesian thinking, its history, and its applicability to both our everyday lives and the pursuit of scientific truth. Although appropriate for the non-expert, afficionados and teachers of quantitative literacy should find the plethora of examples, links to psychology as it applies to how people reason about probabilities, and even Chivers’ philosophical musings informative and thought-provoking.