Mathematics Commons^™

Modelling Acute Haemorrhagic Conjunctivitis In East Africa: An Integrated Approach To Transmission Dynamics And Outbreak Response Strategies, Geofrey Wingi Sikazwe

Tanzania Journal of Science

Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) poses a significant global health risk, with the potential for rapid spread during outbreaks. For instance, a localized outbreak in Yunnan Province, China, recorded infection rates of up to 48%, illustrating how transmission can intensify under favourable epidemiological and environmental conditions. Existing mathematical models of AHC transmission overlook seasonal variations, a critical factor in epidemic spread. This study combines species distribution models (SDMs) and epidemiological modelling to analyse key drivers of AHC in East Africa. We use the SEIR type (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered - incorporating waning immunity) framework with temperature-dependent infectivity rate as the key driver of an …

Health-Related Quality-Of-Life Profiles In Adults With Tinnitus, Preeti Pandey, Hansapani Rodrigo, Megan Kruger, Eldré W. Beukes, De Wet Swanepoel, Anu Sharma, Gerhard Andersson, Vinaya Manchaiah

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

Purpose: The study aimed to characterize the multidimensional burden of tinnitus on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) using the EuroQol 5-Dimension 5-Level (EQ-5D-5L) dimensions (mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain/discomfort, and anxiety/depression) moving beyond symptom severity alone.

Method: A cross-sectional analysis was conducted using baseline data (N = 428, Mage = 54.9 years, 51.9% female) from several clinical trials examining the efficacy of internet-based cognitive behavioral therapy for tinnitus. Data were collected using a series of online questionnaires including demographic, audiological, and clinical variables. HRQoL was assessed using the EQ-5D-5L profile dimensions.

Results: Participants primarily reported no problems with mobility (76.6%), …

The 2025 Measles Outbreak In Texas, Tamer Oraby, Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

Background: In 2025, Texas experienced its largest measles outbreak in decades, reporting 762 cases by mid-August. Measles is a highly contagious but vaccine-preventable infection transmitted mainly among unvaccinated individuals and capable of causing severe outcomes.

Methods: We investigate counterfactual measles control scenarios based on daycare and school closures and reactive vaccination of infants and children, including mixed interventions. We analyze the 2025 Texas outbreak using an age-structured multi-stage SEIR model formulated as a system of ordinary differential equations. The model is fit to case data using Bayesian inference to estimate the effective reproduction number and generate posterior predictive trajectories under …

Interpretable Case-Control Inference Through Log-Linear General Location Models, Zacharia Stuart

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

This dissertation analyzes one of the few publicly available NFL injury datasets to study field type and non-contact lower-limb injuries. Field type is studied jointly with other risk factors to understand how these factors interact to affect injury risk. The data were gathered through a case-control sampling scheme, which limits direct inference on absolute injury probabilities. While not the most common approach for case-control data, this dissertation models the retrospective distribution directly through Log-Linear General Location Models (Log-Linear GLOMs). Through a log-linear structure placed on a log-odds-ratio reparameterization, the model provides directly interpretable marginal and interaction contributions to injury log-odds …

Cultural Traits May Replace Human Mobility Data In Forecasting Covid-19 Mortality: A Deep Learning Approach, Saif Abbas, Tamer Oraby, Michael G. Tyshenko, Samit Bhattacharyya

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for accurate epidemic forecasting to support public health decision-making. Most existing approaches depend heavily on human mobility data, while largely neglecting population behavior shaped by socio-cultural norms. In this study, we analyze daily COVID-19 mortality and Google mobility data from 72 countries during the first 130 d of the pandemic, a period characterized by high uncertainty and behavioral heterogeneity. In particular, we examine whether Hofstede’s country-level cultural dimensions can serve as latent behavioral forecasters of mortality in lieu of dynamic mobility indicators. Using 100 d for training and 30 d for forecasting, we employ …

Comparative Analysis Of Traditional And Deep Learning Time Series Architectures For Influenza A Infectious Disease Forecasting, Edmund Fosu Agyemang, Hansapani Rodrigo, Vincent Agbenyeavu

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

Influenza A remains a major cause of respiratory mortality worldwide, motivating accurate forecasting to support timely preparedness and resource allocation. This study presents a comparative evaluation of two traditional seasonal time series baselines, ARIMA and Holt–Winters exponential smoothing (ETS), and six deep learning (DL) architectures (Simple RNN, LSTM, GRU, BiLSTM, BiGRU, and a Transformer) for forecasting monthly Influenza A case counts in the United States. Data from January 2009 to December 2023 were analyzed, using January 2009 to December 2022 for training and January 2023 to December 2023 for out-of-sample testing. Models were tuned using a validation split and assessed …

Social Media Is A Juggernaut: Lagged Correlation Analysis Using Ngram Data On “Internet” And “Social Media” With Amplification By The Advent Of The “Iphone”, William Zywiak, Gao Niu, Nicolas Petrell, Victoria Nichele, Kirsten Hokeness

Mathematics and Economics Faculty Journal Articles

The amount of new information transmitted per day can be overwhelming. The data available through Ngram Viewer allows statistical examination to determine the most salient topics, as well as lagged correlation and lagged variance to support possible causal connections between concepts. Using this database, we determined that COVID, crypto, microplastics, and especially social media are important topics of the last few years. We also present results that suggest the development of the internet and the iPhone fueled the prominence of social media, and the access of the iPhone also increased access to the internet.

Mathematical Models Of Multisensory Detection And Decision-Making, Rebecca M. Brady

Doctoral

The brain seamlessly integrates signals from multiple sensory modalities to interpret the world efficiently. By using information from various senses, the brain can enhance its ability to detect and respond to stimuli more quickly and accurately. However, combining sensory cues from multiple modalities is only sometimes beneficial as it may lead to illusions and reduced behavioural performance. Behavioural and electrophysiological experiments have revealed that detection and decision-making strategies for multisensory cues evolve throughout human development and ageing. Additionally, studies have demonstrated that maladaptive multisensory processing is a key indicator of a proclivity to falls in older adults and individuals with …

Computational Insights Into Nucleosome Dynamics In Epigenetics Using Molecular Dynamics Simulations, Rutika Patel

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Nucleosome core particles (NCP) are the building blocks that form a highly organized and compact chromatin structure. Nucleosomes package DNA in the nucleus of eukaryotic cells. The NCP consists of about 147 base pairs of DNA wrapped around the histone octamer, with 1.65 superhelical turns in a left-handed manner. The histone octamer is composed of two copies of H3, H4, H2A, and H2B. Together with histone H1 and linker DNA, they further assemble into a higher-order chromatin structure. The nucleosome complex is stabilized by electrostatic interactions between positively charged histone residues and the negatively charged DNA backbone. To effectively access …

Dynamic Homeostasis In Relaxation And Bursting Oscillations, Christopher J. Ryzowicz

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Volume 17, Christian O’Neill, Kyara Greene, Savva Sidorov, Laura Bisaillon, Luke Clemmer, Hannah Gordon, Kitt Benson, Taylor Blount, Rachel Danzitz, Nicholas Duellman, Chase Gionis, Hima Fernando, Seth Franzyshen, Onyx Gonzalez, Bryan Lin, Samantha Start, Ysabel Wells, Maggie Duncan

Incite: The Journal of Undergraduate Scholarship

Introduction Dr. Amorette Barber, Director, Office of Student Research

From the Editor Dr. Hannah Dudley-Shotwell

Cover Artist’s Statement Maggie Duncan

On Mentoring Dr. Yulia Uryadova

Ukrainian Resistance in the Face of Russification: Nestor Makhno and Anarchism

by Christian O’Neill

Life Vest by Kyara Greene

Isolation and 16S rRNA Identification of Bacteria from Fire Department Connection Pipe by Savva Sidorov

The Effectiveness of Planned Exercise in Reducing ADHD Symptoms in Children by Laura Bisaillon & Luke Clemmer

Linguistic Analysis on Confidence and Communication Strategies with Disparities Between Sign Fluency and Hearing Impairment by Hannah Gordon

Freedmen in Indian Territory by Kitt …

Theory And Simulations Of Delayed Stochastic And Deterministic Models Of Prion Diseases, Gangadhara Boregowda, Omar Sharif, Daniel Gutierrez Iii, Allegra Simmons, Laurent Pujo-Menjouet, Tamer Oraby, Michael R. Lindstrom

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

Neurodegenerative diseases (NDs), such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and prion diseases, are characterized by the dynamical spread of toxic proteins through the brain. In prion diseases, cellular prion protein (PrPC), produced by neurons, misfolds into a toxic form, known as scrapie prion protein (PrPSc). PrPSc induces neuronal stress which ultimately leads to cell death. In this paper, we develop mathematical models for the progression of prion diseases, incorporating a cellular defense mechanism that introduces a delay term affecting protein translation and a volatility term accounting for unaccounted biological factors influencing the system. We also extend the model to capture the spatial …

Patterns Of Multimorbidity Among Low-Income Adults Who Smoke With Implications For Tailored Interventions: A Cluster Analysis Using A Mixture Of Bernoulli Model, Monique T. Cano, Michael R. Lindstrom, Oscar F. Rojas Perez, Ricardo F. Muñoz

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

Introduction: Smoking cigarettes remains a leading modifiable risk factor for preventable health conditions. In the United States, the health burden of smoking disproportionately impacts low-income individuals. Multimorbidity is common in this group, complicating treatment and worsening outcomes. Identifying multimorbidity clusters can support targeted, individualized interventions. This study aimed to identify multimorbidity clusters among individuals who smoke and experience economic hardship and provide clinical recommendations to enhance health outcomes.

Method: Individuals who smoke and experience economic hardship (N = 60) were recruited from the San Francisco Health Network (SFHN) and were assessed for physical and mental conditions. Cluster analysis was …

Vaccination Games Of Boundedly Rational Parents Toward New Childhood Immunization, Wei Yin, Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah, Tamer Oraby

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

Infectious diseases harm societies through disease-induced morbidity, mortality, loss of productivity, and inequality. Thus, controlling and preventing them is critical for public health and societal well-being. However, societies can hinder efforts to control the spread of diseases by failing to adhere to public health recommendations, such as through vaccine hesitancy. Various disease-transmission models have been utilized to help policymakers respond to (re)emerging outbreaks. The usefulness of such models in assessing the effectiveness of public health policies is significantly dependent on human behavior. This paper introduces a new model of parental behavior toward a new childhood immunization. The model incorporates societal …

Hybrid Vision Transformer–Cnn Framework For Alzheimer’S Disease Cell Type Classification: A Comparative Study With Vision–Language Models, Md Easin Hasan, Md Tahmid Hasan Fuad, Omar Sharif, Amy Wagler

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

Accurate identification of Alzheimer’s disease (AD)-related cellular characteristics from microscopy images is essential for understanding neurodegenerative mechanisms at the cellular level. While most computational approaches focus on macroscopic neuroimaging modalities, cell type classification from microscopy remains relatively underexplored. In this study, we propose a hybrid vision transformer–convolutional neural network (ViT–CNN) framework that integrates DeiT-Small and EfficientNet-B7 to classify three AD-related cell types—astrocytes, cortical neurons, and SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells—from phase-contrast microscopy images. We perform a comparative evaluation against conventional CNN architectures (DenseNet, ResNet, InceptionNet, and MobileNet) and prompt-based multimodal vision–language models (GPT-5, GPT-4o, and Gemini 2.5-Flash) using zero-shot, few-shot, and chain-of-thought …

Demographic And Other Correlates Of Non-Prescription Drug Use Among College Students During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Subi Gandhi, Sidketa Fofana, Md Rafiul Islam, Tamer Oraby

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

Background and objectives: Substance use among college students in the U.S. remains a pressing concern and may have intensified during the COVID-19 pandemic due to increased stress, uncertainty, and academic disruptions. This study investigates the relationship between non-prescription drug use and various demographic, mental health, and behavioral factors among college students during the pandemic's early stages.

Methods: Data were collected through online and in-person surveys in the summer semester of 2021. Behavioral health was assessed using validated instruments: the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) for depression and the Drug Abuse Screening Test-20 (DAST-20) for substance use. Demographic and behavioral variables were …

Identifying Relevant Covariates In Rna-Seq Analysis By Pseudo-Variable Augmentation, Yet Nguyen, Dan Nettleton

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) technology allows for the identification of differentially expressed genes, which are genes whose mean transcript abundance levels vary across conditions. In practice, RNA-seq datasets often include covariates that are of primary interest in addition to a set of covariates that are subject to selection. Some of these covariates may be relevant to gene expression levels, while others may be irrelevant. Ignoring relevant covariates or attempting to adjust for the effect of irrelevant covariates can compromise the identification of differentially expressed genes. To address this issue, we propose a variable selection method that uses pseudo-variables to control the expected …

Comparative Machine Learning Models For Disease Risk Prediction, Mercy Mawusi Agbley

Theses, Dissertations and Capstones

Accurate prediction of disease outcomes is crucial for improving clinical decision-making and enabling early intervention. This study compares the performance of various statistical and machine learning models for clinical risk prediction using two healthcare datasets: diabetic retinopathy and heart disease. The models assessed include Logistic Regression, LASSO, k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Neural Networks, Random Forests, Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM), and a stacked ensemble model. Prior to modeling, datasets were split into train and test sets. Standardization was applied to numeric features whilst categorical features were one-hot encoded. These transformations were later applied to the test set. Principal …

Near Real-Time Adaptive Isotropic And Anisotropic Image-To-Mesh Conversion For Cerebral Aneurysm Simulations, Kevin Garner, Chander Sadasivan, Nikos Chrisochoides

Computer Science Faculty Publications

This paper presents two performance optimization techniques for a mesh adaptation method that is designed to help streamline the discretization of complex vascular geometries within the numerical modeling process. This method is integrated into a pipeline with an image-to-mesh conversion tool to generate adaptive anisotropic meshes from segmented medical images. The pipeline is shown to satisfy quality, fidelity, smoothness, and robustness requirements while providing near real-time performance for medical image-to-mesh conversion. Tested with two brain aneurysm cases and utilizing up to 96 CPU cores within a single, multicore node on Purdue University’s Anvil supercomputer, the parallel adaptive anisotropic meshing method …

Approximation Of Solution Of Certain Nonlinear Problems With Applications, Faisal Aijaz

Master of Science in Mathematics

In the thesis, we established the strong convergence of inertial iterative scheme designed to approximate the common solutions of the equilibrium and the fixed-point problem for non-expansive mappings in Hilbert spaces. Through extensive numerical analysis, we analyze the efficiency of the algorithm and demonstrate that the incorporation of the inertial technique yields a significantly faster convergence rate than existing comparable schemes. Furthermore, we examine the effect of initial value on the convergence dynamics, offering visual and comparative assessments against classical methods. To highlight the practical utility and versatility of our framework, we apply the algorithm to signal restoration problems, and …

Geovig And Purevig: Geometry-Aware Architectures For Efficient Computer Vision, Omar Ismail

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Deploying deep learning models for medical image analysis on mobile devices requires a balance between inference latency, memory footprint, and delineating anatomical boundaries with high accuracy. While Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and mobile Vision Transformers (ViTs) offer efficiency, they often struggle to model the irregular, non-local geometric structures inherent in biological tissues without incurring prohibitive computational costs. In this thesis, we introduce GeoViG (Geometric Vision Graph), an architecture that bridges the gap between efficient grid-based processing and explicit Geometric Deep Learning. GeoViG introduces a novel transition from high-resolution pixel grids to low-resolution dynamic graphs via a SpreadEdgePool operator, a geometry-aware …

Gain-Delay Decoupling In Human Stimulus Frequency Otoacoustic Emissions Reveals Constraints On Cochlear Nonlinear Amplification, Yoshita Sharma, Arturo Moleti, Renata Sisto, Teresa Botti, Hansapani Rodrigo, Sri Mishra

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

Purpose: The nonlinear cochlear amplifier, driven by outer hair cells, underlies the remarkable sensitivity and frequency selectivity of the mammalian auditory system. Stimulus frequency otoacoustic emissions (SFOAEs) provide a noninvasive window into these active cochlear processes, yet the relationship between emission gain and delay across stimulus levels remains incompletely understood. This study examined the level dependence of SFOAEs in normal-hearing human listeners to characterize cochlear nonlinear response properties. We tested how emission gain and delay vary with stimulus level and estimated the frequency of the apical–basal transition associated with the breakdown of the approximate local scaling symmetry.

Methods: SFOAEs were …

Exploration Of Euclidean Distances In Five-Dimensional Color Space As Proof-Of-Concept For Identification Of Promising Alternatives To Platinum-Based Cancer Drug Candidates, Kiomi Tanakura, Elena G. Harvey

Student Scholar Symposium

Cisplatin, cis-Pt(NH₃)₂Cl₂, is one of the most successful anticancer drugs of all time. However, it has some negative aspects, including toxicity to healthy cells, side effects, and cost. Our goal in this project is to design metal-based anticancer drugs that would be less expensive, less toxic, and more efficient for cancer patients than cisplatin. To begin this research we calculated Euclidean distances - as used by computerized recognition systems - to compare the properties of colors within seasonal palettes that are proven and visible to the eye. These Euclidean distances were then used …

Is Noise Exposure Associated With Impaired Extended High Frequency Hearing Despite A Normal Audiogram? A Systematic Review And Meta-Analysis, Sajana Aryal, Monica Trevino, Hansapani Rodrigo, Srikanta K. Mishra

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

Understanding the initial signature of noise-induced auditory damage remains a significant priority. Animal models suggest the cochlear base is particularly vulnerable to noise, raising the possibility that early-stage noise exposure could be linked to basal cochlear dysfunction, even when thresholds at 0.25-8 kHz are normal. To investigate this in humans, we conducted a meta-analysis following a systematic review, examining the association between noise exposure and hearing in frequencies from 9 to 20 kHz as a marker for basal cochlear dysfunction. Systematic review and meta-analysis followed PRISMA guidelines and the PICOS framework. Studies on noise exposure and hearing in the 9 …

Insecticide-Treated Net Use And Elimination Of Malaria In Sub-Saharan African Countries: Assessing The Global Technical Strategy Using An Evolutionary Game Approach, Laxmi, Tamer Oraby, Michael G. Tyshenko, Ina Danquah, Samit Bhattacharyya

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

Background: Malaria continues to be a major public health challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where the majority of the countries have not met the World Health Assembly's endorsed Global Technical Strategy (GTS) milestones in 2020 for malaria reduction. Insecticide-treated net (ITN) usage is a well-established and effective intervention, often outperforming other measures such as indoor residual spraying (IRS). However, multiple survey studies have reported improper use of ITNs across various SSA countries. This misuse likely poses an important barrier to the intervention's success, although it remains a largely untested hypothesis.

Methods: We developed a behaviour-incidence model and statistical analysis of …

Causal Predictive Modeling Of Survival Of Lung And Bronchus Cancer Patients Diagnosed During 2010–2011 In Texas, Zeinab Mohamed, Sidketa Fofana, Everardo Cobos, Manish K. Tripathi, Tamer Oraby

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

Background: Lung and Bronchus cancer is the most fatal type of cancer in the United States. According to the American Cancer Society, there were more than 127,000 deaths from lung cancer in 2023. Lung cancer care cost 23.8 billion dollars in 2020. In Texas, only 22.8% of lung cancer patients survived 5 years or more past diagnosis based on 2012-2018 data.

Aim: This study evaluates the survival length of lung and bronchus cancer patients in Texas using advanced statistical and machine learning methods applied to an 11-year cohort study from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. It also quantifies the …

Spike Timing-Dependent Plasticity And Random Inputs Shape Interspike Interval Regularity Of Model Stn Neurons, Thoa Thieu, Roderick Melnik

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

Background/Objectives: Neuronal oscillations play a key role in the symptoms of Parkinson’s disease (PD). This study investigates the effects of random synaptic inputs, their correlations, and the interaction with synaptic dynamics and spike timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) on the membrane potential and firing patterns of subthalamic nucleus (STN) neurons, both in healthy and PD-affected states. Methods: We used a modified Hodgkin–Huxley model with a Langevin stochastic framework to study how synaptic conductance, random input fluctuations, and STDP affect STN neuron firing and membrane potential, including sensitivity to refractory period and synaptic depression variability. Results: Our results show that random inputs significantly …

The Only Constant Is Change: The Role Of Genetic Diversification In Cancer And Beyond, Malgorzata Tyczynska Weh

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Genetic diversification, the process by which genetic variation arises in a population, is fundamental to evolution by natural selection. Mutation, a central diversification process, fuels adaptation across species, including in cancer. Yet most new mutations are neutral or deleterious on cell fitness, raising the question of how mutation-driven adaptation persists. To explore this paradox, I developed a spatial agent-based model (ABM) in which population fitness emerges from individual cells acquiring mutations at varied rates and with diverse fitness effects. I evaluated model behavior across adaptive states, mutation rates, and distributions of fitness effects. The results show that high mutation rates …

Temporal Modeling And Forecasting Of Blood Glucose Dynamics In Individuals With Diabetes Mellitus, Mj Ruff

University Honors Theses

People living with Diabetes Mellitus face significant health risks, including an increased likelihood of heart disease, stroke, and fluctuations in blood glucose levels. The unpredictable nature of glucose levels can lead to dangerous conditions such as ketoacidosis and hypoglycemia. This study employs advanced time series analysis tools to forecast the glucose levels for an individual diagnosed with Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus.

Forecasting Influenza Rates Using Machine Learning: A Study Of Chatgpt's Predictive Accuracy, Sara Saleh

University Honors Theses

This study evaluates ChatGPT's ability to forecast influenza rates, such as the number of flu cases, hospitalizations, and death during peak season periods using CDC data, and comparing forecasts against actual results to calculate statistical accuracy and consistency. Influenza forecasting is essential for public health planning, but traditional methods may not always provide timely or accurate predictions. In this research study, ChatGPT was utilized to predict the influenza rates for the following week based on the previous week's data obtained from the FluView surveillance system. The predicted rates were compared to the actual influenza rates to assess the model's overall …