Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment Commons^™

Climate Change And Population Growth Impacts On Surface Water Supply And Demand Of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Bisrat Kifle Arsiso, Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu, Gerrit Hendrik Stoffberg, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study includes analysis of water consumption, hydrological information and climate data which is statistically downscaled using approach used to generate climate data available at the Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 …

Agricultural Trade Publications And The 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought: A Missed Opportunity For Climate Risk Communication, Sarah P. Church, Tonya Haigh, Melissa Widhalm, Silvestre Garcia De Jalon, Nicholas Babin, J. Stuart Carlton, Michael Dunn, Katie Fagan, Cody L. Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Midwestern United States experienced a devastating drought in 2012, leading to reduced corn and soybean yields and increased instances of pests and disease. Climate change induced weather variability and extremes are expected to increase in the future, and have and will continue to impact the agricultural sector. This study investigated how agricultural trade publications portrayed the 2012 U.S. Midwestern drought, whether climate change was associated with drought, and whether these publications laid out transformative adaptation measures farmers could undertake in order to increase their adaptive capacity for future climate uncertainty. We performed a content analysis of 1000 media reports …

Information Mining From Heterogeneous Data Sources: A Case Study On Drought Predictions, Getachew B. Demisse, Tsegaye Tadesse, Solomon Atnafu, Shawndra Hill, Brian D. Wardlow, Yared Bayissa, Andualem Shiferaw

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this study was to develop information mining methodology for drought modeling and predictions using historical records of climate, satellite, environmental, and oceanic data. The classification and regression tree (CART) approach was used for extracting drought episodes at different time-lag prediction intervals. Using the CART approach, a number of successful model trees were constructed, which can easily be interpreted and used by decision makers in their drought management decisions. The regression rules produced by CART were found to have correlation coefficients from 0.71–0.95 in rules-alone modeling. The accuracies of the models were found to be higher in the …

Socio-Environmental Drought Response In A Mixed Urban-Agricultural Setting: Synthesizing Biophysical And Governance Responses In The Platte River Watershed, Nebraska, Usa, Samuel C. Zipper, Kelly Helm Smith, Betsy Breyer, Jianxiao Qui, Anthony Kung, Dustin Herrmann

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Ensuring global food and water security requires a detailed understanding of how coupled socio-environmental systems respond to drought. Using the Platte River Watershed in Nebraska (USA) as an exemplar mixed urban-agricultural watershed, we quantify biophysical response to drought in urban (Lincoln NE) and agricultural systems alongside a qualitative analysis of governance response and adaptive capacity of both sectors. Synthesis of results highlights parallels and discontinuities between urban and agricultural preparations for and response to drought. Whereas drought prompted an increase in well installations and expansion of water-intensive crops, e.g., corn, in the agricultural sector, outdoor water use restrictions rapidly curtailed …

Cocorahs Observers Contribute To “Condition Monitoring” In The Carolinas: A New Initiative Addresses Needs For Drought Impacts Information, Kirsten Lackstrom, Amanda Farris, David Eckhardt, Nolan Doesken, Henry Reges, Julian Turner, Kelly Helm Smith, Rebecca Ward

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

High Plains Regional Climate Center (Poster)

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The HPRCC provides the public with several ways to access climate data and information. Whether via direct contact, website access, or through a subscription to one of HPRCC’s online services, users can acquire a variety of climate data products, such as: • Near Real-Time and Historical Climate Data • National and Regional Climate Data Maps • Agricultural Climate Products • Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Regional Climate Summaries

Estimating The Number Of Recreational Anglers For A Given Waterbody, Kevin L. Pope, Larkin A. Powell, Brian S. Harmon, Mark A. Pegg, Christopher J. Chizinski

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Knowing how many anglers use a given body of water is paramount for understanding components of a fishery related to angling pressure and harvest, yet no study has attempted to provide an estimate of the population size of anglers for a given waterbody. Here, we use information from creel surveys in a removal-sampling framework to estimate total numbers of anglers using six reservoirs in Nebraska, USA, and we examine the influence of the duration of sampling period on those estimates. Population estimates (N ± SE) of unique anglers were 2050 ± 45 for Branched Oak Lake, 1992 ± 29 for …

A Descriptive Analysis Of Regal Fritillary (Speyeria Idalia) Habitat Utilizing Biological Monitoring Data Along The Big Bend Of The Platte River, Ne, Andrew J. Caven, Kelsey C. King, Joshua D. Wiese, Emma M. Brinley Buckley

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Speyeria idalia populations have declined as much as 95 percent over the last three decades. Here we critically evaluate prairie habitat components along the Platte River in central Nebraska that S. idalia populations require in an effort to better inform conservation efforts. We utilized S. idalia count data from biological monitoring transects where vegetation, soils, land management, and flooding frequency data were also collected to describe the habitat constituents associated with S. idalia presence. We utilize comparative statistics, Pearson’s correlation analysis, and random forest analysis to model S. idalia habitat on land owned and managed by a small conservation NGO. …

Modeling With A Conceptual Representation: Is It Necessary? Does It Work?, Rebecca C. Jordan, Steven Gray, Amanda E. Sorensen, Samantha Pasewark, Suparna Sinha, Cindy E. Hmelo-Silver

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

In response to recent educational imperatives in the United States, modeling and systems thinking have been identified as being critical for science learning. In this paper, we investigate models in the classroom from two important perspectives: (1) from the teacher perspective to understand how teachers perceive models and use models in the classroom and (2) from the students perspective to understand how student use model-based reasoning to represent their understanding in a classroom setting. Qualitative data collected from 19 teachers who attended a professional development workshop in the northeastern United States indicate that while teachers see the value in teaching …

A Model-Based Assessment Of Potential Impacts Of Man-Made Reservoirs On Precipitation, Jesse Winchester, Rezaul Mahmood, William Rodgers, Faisal Hossain, Eric Rappin, Joshua D. Durkee, Themis Chronis

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Land-use land-cover change (LULCC) plays an important role in weather and climate systems. Human modifications of land cover include building reservoirs and thus creating artificial lakes for multipurpose use. In this research, the authors have completed a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–based assessment of impacts of two large parallel lakes on precipitation. This area is located in the western part of the states of Kentucky and Tennessee and known as the Land between the Lakes (LBL). To determine the impacts, this study has replaced the lakes with grass, deciduous forests, and bare soil and conducted model simulations for three …

The Effect Of The Dry Line And Convective Initiation On Drought Evolution Over Oklahoma During The 2011 Drought, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Bradley G. Illston, Jason A. Otkin

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet and high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were used to evaluate the effect that the dry line and large-scale atmospheric patterns had on drought evolution during 2011. Mesonet observations showed that a “dry” and “wet” pattern developed across Oklahoma due to anomalous atmospheric patterns. The location of the dry line varied due to this “dry” and “wet” pattern, with the average dry line location around 1.5∘ longitude further to the east than climatology.Model simulations were used to further quantify the impact of variable surface conditions on dry line evolution and convective initiation (CI) …

Useful To Usable: Developing Usable Climate Science For Agriculture, Linda Stalker Prokopy, J. Stuart Carlton, Tonya Haigh, Maria Carmen Lemos, Amber Saylor Mase, Melissa Widhalm

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Useful to Usable (U2U) project was a six-year research and extension project funded by the United States Department of Agriculture to provide both useful and usable climate information for the agricultural (corn) sector in the Midwestern United States. The project adopted an extensive co-production of knowledge and decision-making approach that involved intense iteration with potential end-users, including farmers and a variety of professional agricultural advisors, through focus groups and surveys, feedback at outreach events, and frequent informal interactions to develop both decision support tools and delivery mechanisms that met stakeholder needs. This overview paper for this special issue illustrates …

Droughtscape, Winter 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC partners with Sioux tribes to build climate resiliency

Drought intensifies in some regions of U.S. in fall

Fire danger and sequoia deaths in third quarter

2016: Year in review

MENA region forums elicit

feedback from stakeholders

Tech pass-off in Tunisia

Midwest DEWS meetings build collaboration, relationships

Workshop links drought, socioeconomic impacts/p>

Drought center helps ranchers prepare for drought

Drought tourney in Nebraska goes low tech

Potential For Asymmetric Competition Among Co-Inhabiting Invasive Silver Carp And Native Shad Species In The Lower Midwest, Dalton D. Lebeda

Murray State Theses and Dissertations

In the United States, Silver Carp are an invasive voracious planktivorous fish that are capable of competing with many native fish species. Until the last decade, very little was known about how Silver Carp would interact with native fish species or how quickly their populations would expand. In the early 2000’s, established Silver Carp populations were reported in Kentucky Lake although they were reported in the Tennessee River much earlier (1987). Kentucky Lake is the first large flood storage reservoir that has been invaded by a reproducing population of Silver Carp in the United States. To date, control measures for …

Severe Drought Impacts Female Pheasant Physiology In Southwest Nebraska, Jessica A. Laskowski, Gwendolyn C. Bachman, Joseph J. Fontaine

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

In 2012, Nebraska experienced one of the worst droughts since the 1930s, accompanied by abnormally high temperatures. We studied the impacts of the 2012 summer drought on female ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) body condition and baseline and stress-induced corticosterone concentrations (CORT). We hypothesized that drought conditions would reduce pheasant body condition, increase chronic stress resulting in elevated baseline CORT levels, and down-regulate pheasant stress response to acute stressors, resulting in reduced stress-induced CORT concentrations. In southwestern Nebraska, we captured female pheasants in 2012 (pre-drought) and 2013 (post-drought). Pheasants had poorer body condition after the drought. Although female CORT …

Frobenius Betti Numbers And Modules Of Finite Protective Dimension, Alessandro De Stefani, Craig Huneke, Luis Nunez-Betancourt

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Let (R,m,K) be a local ring, and let M be an R-module of finite length. We study asymptotic invariants, bfi (M,R), defined by twisting with Frobenius the free resolution of M. This family of invariants includes the Hilbert-Kunz multiplicity (eHK (m,R) = BF0 (K,R)). We discuss several properties of these numbers that resemble the behavior of the Hilbert-Kunz multiplicity. Furthermore, we study when the vanishing of BFI (M,R,) implies that M complete characterization of the vanishing of BFi (M,R0 for one-dimensional rings. As a consequence of our methods we give conditions for the non-existence of syzygies of finite length.

Balancing Stability And Flexibility In Adaptive Governance: An Analysis Of Tools Available In U.S. Environmental Law, Robin Kundis Craig, Ahjond S. Garmestani, Craig R. Allen, Craig Anthony (Tony) Arnold, Hannah E. Birge, Daniel A. Decaro, Alexander K. Fremier, Hannah Gosnell, Edella Schlager

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Adaptive governance must work “on the ground,” that is, it must operate through structures and procedures that the people it governs perceive to be legitimate and fair, as well as incorporating processes and substantive goals that are effective in allowing social-ecological systems (SESs) to adapt to climate change and other impacts. To address the continuing and accelerating alterations that climate change is bringing to SESs, adaptive governance generally will require more flexibility than prior governance institutions have often allowed. However, to function as good governance, adaptive governance must pay real attention to the problem of how to balance this increased …

Capturing Change: The Duality Of Time-Lapse Imagery To Acquire Data And Depict Ecological Dynamics, Emma Brinley Buckley, Craig R. Allen, Michael L. Forsberg, Michael Farrell, Andrew J. Caven

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

We investigate the scientific and communicative value of time-lapse imagery by exploring applications for data collection and visualization. Time-lapse imagery has a myriad of possible applications to study and depict ecosystems and can operate at unique temporal and spatial scales to bridge the gap between large-scale satellite imagery projects and observational field research. Time-lapse data sequences, linking time-lapse imagery with data visualization, have the ability to make data come alive for a wider audience by connecting abstract numbers to images that root data in time and place. Utilizing imagery from the Platte Basin Timelapse Project, water inundation and vegetation phenology …

Adaptive Management Of Rangeland Systems, Craig R. Allen, David G. Angeler, Joseph J. Fontaine, Ahjond S. Garmestani, Noelle M. Chaine, Kevin L. Pope, Dirac L. Twidwell Jr.

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that uses structured learning to reduce uncertainties for the improvement of management over time. The origins of adaptive management are linked to ideas of resilience theory and complex systems. Rangeland management is particularly well suited for the application of adaptive management, having sufficient controllability and reducible uncertainties. Adaptive management applies the tools of structured decision making and requires monitoring, evaluation, and adjustment of management. Adaptive governance, involving sharing of power and knowledge among relevant stakeholders, is often required to address conflict situations. Natural resource laws and regulations can present a barrier …

Network Analysis Of A Regional Fishery: Implications For Management Of Natural Resources, And Recruitment And Retention Of Anglers, Dustin R. Martin, Daizaburo Shizuka, Christopher J. Chizinski, Kevin L. Pope

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Angler groups and water-body types interact to create a complex social-ecological system. Network analysis could inform detailed mechanistic models on, and provide managers better information about, basic patterns of fishing activity. Differences in behavior and reservoir selection among angler groups in a regional fishery, the Salt Valley fishery in southeastern Nebraska, USA, were assessed using a combination of cluster and network analyses. The four angler groups assessed ranged from less active, unskilled anglers (group One) to highly active, very skilled anglers (group Four). Reservoir use patterns and the resulting network communities of these four angler groups differed; the number of …

Shorebird Stopover Habitat Decisions In A Changing Landscape, Caitlyn Gillespie, Joseph J. Fontaine

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

To examine how habitat use by sandpipers (Calidris spp.; Baird’s sandpipers, dunlin, least sandpipers, pectoral sandpipers, semipalmated sandpipers, stilt sandpipers, and white-rumped sandpipers) varies across a broad suite of environmental conditions, we conducted surveys at wetlands throughout the spring migratory period in 2013 and 2014 in 2 important stopover regions: the Rainwater Basin (RWB) in Nebraska, USA, and the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) in South Dakota, USA. Because providing adequate energetic resources for migratory birds is a high priority for wetland management, we also measured invertebrate abundance at managed wetlands in the RWB to determine how food abundance influences …

Species Distributions Models In Wildlife Planning: Agricultural Policy And Wildlife Management In The Great Plains, Joseph J. Fontaine, Christopher F. Jorgensen, Erica F. Stuber, Lutz F. Gruber, Andrew A. Bishop, Jeffrey J. Lusk, Eric S. Zach, Karie L. Decker

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

We know economic and social policy has implications for ecosystems at large, but the consequences for a given geographic area or specific wildlife population are more difficult to conceptualize and communicate. Species distribution models, which extrapolate species-habitat relationships across ecological scales, are capable of predicting population changes in distribution and abundance in response to management and policy, and thus, are an ideal means for facilitating proactive management within a larger policy framework. To illustrate the capabilities of species distribution modeling in scenario planning for wildlife populations, we projected an existing distribution model for ring-necked pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) onto …

Protected Areas As Social-Ecological Systems: Perspectives From Resilience And Social-Ecological Systems Theory, Graeme S. Cumming, Craig R. Allen

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Conservation biology and applied ecology increasingly recognize that natural resource management is both an outcome and a driver of social, economic, and ecological dynamics. Protected areas offer a fundamental approach to conserving ecosystems, but they are also social-ecological systems whose ecological management and sustainability are heavily influenced by people. This editorial, and the papers in the invited feature that it introduces, discuss three emerging themes in social-ecological systems approaches to understanding protected areas: (1) the resilience and sustainability of protected areas, including analyses of their internal dynamics, their effectiveness, and the resilience of the landscapes within which they occur; (2) …

A Bayesian Method For Assessing Multi-Scale Species-Habitat Relationships, Erica F. Stuber, Lutz F. Gruber, Joseph J. Fontaine

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Context Scientists face several theoretical and methodological challenges in appropriately describing fundamental wildlife-habitat relationships in models. The spatial scales of habitat relationships are often unknown, and are expected to follow a multi-scale hierarchy. Typical frequentist or information theoretic approaches often suffer under collinearity in multiscale studies, fail to converge when models are complex or represent an intractable computational burden when candidate model sets are large.

Objectives Our objective was to implement an automated, Bayesian method for inference on the spatial scales of habitat variables that best predict animal abundance.

Methods We introduce Bayesian latent indicator scale selection (BLISS), a Bayesian …

Reframing Communication About Zika And Mosquitoes To Increase Disease Prevention Behavior, Amanda E. Sorensen, Rebecca C. Jordan, Shannon Ladeau

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Emergence of invasive vector species and the diseases they carry present a clear danger to the public as well as a challenge for scientists and experts to control effectively. Given the urgent need to address this phenomenon, we suggest that desired public action toward these invasive vectors can be motivated through intentional framing in science communication. In this paper, we sought to evaluate the effect of framing about ZIKV (Zika virus) on reported willingness to comply with mosquito prevention action. Post framing intervention, we found a significant increase (N = 26, p < 0.001) in individuals willing to take preventative action against mosquitoes. By methodically investigating best communication practices, this study and others can help practitioners mobilize communities to address large-scale ecological problems. Additionally, the principles outlined here may be transferrable to other communication efforts about ecological issues outside of ZIKV and mosquitoes.

Nebraska Public Water Supply Program Summary Report 2017

Nebraska Department of Environmental Quality: Reports

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) established the Public Water System Supervision (PWSS) Program under the authority of the 1974 Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA). Under the SDWA and the 1986 Amendments, EPA sets national limits on contaminant levels in drinking water to ensure that the water is safe for human consumption. These limits are known as Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) and Maximum Residual Disinfectant Levels (MRDLs). For some regulations, EPA establishes treatment techniques in lieu of an MCL to control unacceptable levels of contaminants in water.

2017 Nebraska Groundwater Quality Monitoring Report

Nebraska Department of Environmental Quality: Reports

The 2001 Nebraska Legislature passed LB329 (Neb. Rev. Stat. §46-1304) which, in part, directed the Nebraska Department of Environmental Quality (NDEQ) to report on groundwater quality monitoring in Nebraska. Reports have been issued annually since December 2001. The text of the statute applicable to this report follows: “The Department of Environmental Quality shall prepare a report outlining the extent of ground water quality monitoring conducted by natural resources districts during the preceding calendar year. The department shall analyze the data collected for the purpose of determining whether or not ground water quality is degrading or improving and shall present the …

Compensatory Response Of Fathead Minnow Larvae Following A Pulsed In-Situ Exposure To A Seasonal Agricultural Runoff Event, Jonathan M. Ali, John Sangster, Daniel D. Snow, Shannon L. Bartelt-Hunt, Alan S. Kolok

Nebraska Water Center: Faculty Publications

Agriculturally-dominated waterways such as those found throughout the Midwestern United States often experience seasonal pulses of agrichemical contaminants which pose a potential hazard to aquatic organisms at varying life stages. The objective of this study was to characterize the developmental plasticity of fathead minnow larvae in a natural environment subject to a seasonal episodic perturbation in the form of a complex mixture of agricultural stressors. Fathead minnow larvae were maintained at the Elkhorn River Research Station for a 28-d in situ exposure to an agrichemical pulse event.Minnow larvae were sampled after 14 and 28 days to characterize developmental plasticity through …

Antibiotics And Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria In Coastal Plain Streams, Jason Duff

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

Streams across the United States and globally are influenced by environmental contamination, including antibiotics, which enter streams due to widespread use and multiple pathways into the environment. Antibiotics are also likely to enter streams in mixture with other contaminants that alter the effects on aquatic organisms. Furthermore, antibiotic-resistant bacteria enter streams through similar pathways as antibiotics with implications for natural microbial communities. Therefore, understanding the presence and effects of antibiotic-contaminant mixtures and antibiotic-resistant bacteria in streams is important for resource management.

Chapter one describes an experiment that tested the hypothesis that the antibiotic tetracycline (TC) alone influences phytoplankton communities differently …

Changes In Arctic Climate And Central U.S. Weather Patterns Is There A Link?, Donald A. Wilhite, Kimberly C. Morrow, Martha Shulski

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Earlier snowmelt, decreasing soil moisture, decreased corn yields, increasing extreme precipitation events—these are some of the weather effects currently observed in the central United States that might well have their origin in the rapidly warming Arctic. These and other implications of Arctic warming were among the topics discussed at a fall 2015 workshop, Implications of a Changing Arctic on Water Resources and Agriculture in the Central U.S (Wilhite and Morrow 2016).

The United States assumed chairmanship of the Arctic Council in April 2015, making the workshop topic timely. Given the importance of the Midwest and Great Plains region as a …