Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment Commons^™

Umphlett Qci June 2017, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Snowpack and Streamflow

Historic Flooding in Missouri

Spring Conditions Impact Agriculture

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

A Spatial Relationship Between Stream Slope Stability And Water Quality Within An Urban Watershed In Rock Island, Il, Joseph Teresi

Celebration of Learning

The consistently observed phenomenon of highly altered streams and degraded water quality draining urban areas across the U.S is described as the urban stream syndrome. Rock Island, Illinois, contains a population of nearly 39,000 people, and houses industrial and logistical businesses amidst a city of aging infrastructure. Streams occupy ravines that have incised into the Quaternary loess plateau, flowing south towards the Rock River and north or west towards the Mississippi River. In an attempt to understand better the severity of Rock Island’s urban stream syndrome, this project analyzed stream slopes within the Rock Island watershed to categorize their level …

Geomorphic Characteristics And Sediment Transport In Natural And Channelized Reaches Of Big Barren Creek, Southeast Missouri, Matthew S. Thies

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

Channelization, levee construction, and gravel mining are land management practices that are used for flood control. However, they often alter the balance between sediment supply and available sediment transporting power in streams, causing channel instability. Streams can respond to instability through channel incision and sediment aggradation which can degrade riparian habitat, increase flood risks, and cause property damage. These problems have been observed along segments of Big Barren Creek, which drains 190 km² of the Missouri Ozarks in Mark Twain National Forest. Field assessment and modeling methods were used to evaluate the spatial distribution of channel instability along the upper …

Deposition Patterns And Rates Of Mining-Contaminated Sediment Within A Sedimentation Basin System, S.E. Missouri, Joshua Carl Voss

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

Flooding events exert a dominant control over the deposition and formation of floodplains. The rate at which floodplains form depends on flood magnitude, frequency, and duration, and associated sediment transport capacity and supply. While it is known that sediment in the Big River is contaminated from historical mining, little is known about the patterns and rates of deposition on floodplains, especially those that have been modified for remediation purposes. The goal of this study was to evaluate the influence of flood characteristics and topography on contemporary deposition patterns and rates in a sedimentation basin system located within a floodplain along …

Riparian Buffered Sinkholes In The Blue River Watershed, Colin Copler

Undergraduate Theses

Riparian vegetation along streams has many positive effects on water quality and macroinvertebrate communities, especially in agricultural areas. Some of these effects include erosion prevention, pollutant removal, and lower summer water temperatures. There has been much research done examining the link between these riparian areas and streams; however, riparian vegetation is understudied in karst areas. Karst is a geologic formation that is composed of limestone, which dissolves in groundwater, forming sinkholes. Thus, the question this paper seeks to investigate is does riparian vegetation around sinkholes in a karst plain influence water quality within a watershed? Water quality, land cover, and …

Droughtscape, Spring 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought center helps islands reduce drought vulnerability

2017 sees above-average precipitation, warmer temps

California pulls out of drought

After tech transfer, training Tunisia launches first drought map

Drought center releases 2016 annual report

Book chapter focuses on drought and health

U2U wraps up, brings useful tools to farmers

Survey finds drought info leads to better decisions

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- April 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Fisheries & wildlife climate workshop...................................2

Product highlights..................3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

NCA workshop and outreach activities......................................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Predicting The U.S. Drought Monitor Using Precipitation, Soil Moisture, And Evapotranspiration Anomalies. Part Ii: Intraseasonal Drought Intensification Forecasts, David J. Lorenz, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Svoboda, Christopher R. Hain, Martha C. Anderson, Yafang Zhong

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Probabilistic forecasts of U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) intensification over 2-, 4-, and 8-week time periods are developed based on recent anomalies in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. These statistical forecasts are computed using logistic regression with cross validation. While recent precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture do provide skillful forecasts, it is found that additional information on the current state of the USDM adds significant skill to the forecasts. The USDM state information takes the form of a metric that quantifies the ‘‘distance’’ from the next-higher drought category using a nondiscrete estimate of the current USDM state. This adds skill because …

Umphlett Qci March 2017, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Christmas Day Storm

Heavy Fuels Increase Fire Risk

Early Warmth Causes Concerns

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

NOAA Spring Flood Outlook

Nutrient Contamination From Non-Point Sources: Dissolved Phosphate In Surface And Subsurface Waters At Eku Meadowbrook Farm, Madison County, Kentucky, Hunter R. Evans, Reid E. Buskirk, Walter S. Borowski, Jonathan M. Malzone

EKU Faculty and Staff Scholarship

Farms are non-point sources for nutrient contaminants that drain into watersheds and contribute to eutrophication and other environmental problems. Eastern Kentucky University’s Meadowbrook Farm raises both crops and livestock, causing dissolved phosphorus in the form of orthophosphate (PO₄^3-) from fertilizer and animal manure to enter surface and subsurface waters, eventually flowing into Muddy Creek, a tributary of the Kentucky River.

We sampled surface water, springs, and water from French drains that emanate from the farm, and also sampled Muddy Creek waters from May through August 2016. Typically, 1 to 2 days after sampling, we colorimetrically measured dissolved …

Nutrient Contamination From Non-Point Sources: Dissolved Nitrate And Ammonium In Surface And Subsurface Waters At Eku Meadowbrook Farm, Madison County, Kentucky, Reid E. Buskirk, Hunter R. Evans, Walter S. Borowski, Jonathan M. Malzone

EKU Faculty and Staff Scholarship

Agricultural activities often contaminate watersheds with excess nutrients leading to poor water quality and eutrophication. We assayed dissolved nutrient levels in surface and subsurface waters of Eastern Kentucky University’s Meadowbrook Farm in order to assess levels of dissolved nutrients leaving its farmland and draining into the Muddy Creek watershed. The Farm raises both crops and livestock so that nutrient sources include fertilizer and manure. We sampled springs, runoff, and subsurface pipe drainage as well as Muddy Creek on six days from May to August 2016 under a variety of weather conditions. Using established, standard colorimetric methods, we measured nitrate (NO …

U.S. Drought Monitor, January 17, 2017, Richard Tinker

United States Agricultural Commodities in Drought Archive

Drought map of U.S. for January 17, 2017 (1/17/17) plus: U.S. crop areas experiencing drought (map), Approximate percentage of crop located in drought, by state (bar graph), Percent of crop area located in drought, past 52 weeks (line graph) for: Corn, Soybeans, Hay, Cattle, Winter wheat.

U.S. Drought Monitor, January 10, 2017, David Miskus

United States Agricultural Commodities in Drought Archive

Drought map of U.S. for January 10, 2017 (1/10/17) plus: U.S. crop areas experiencing drought (map), Approximate percentage of crop located in drought, by state (bar graph), Percent of crop area located in drought, past 52 weeks (line graph) for: Corn, Soybeans, Hay, Cattle, Winter wheat.

U.S. Drought Monitor, January 3, 2017, David Miskus

United States Agricultural Commodities in Drought Archive

Drought map of U.S. for January 3, 2017 (1/3/17) plus: U.S. crop areas experiencing drought (map), Approximate percentage of crop located in drought, by state (bar graph), Percent of crop area located in drought, past 52 weeks (line graph) for: Corn, Soybeans, Hay, Cattle, Winter wheat.

Why Do Different Drought Indices Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes In The U.S. Great Plains?, Song Feng, Miroslav Trnka, Michael Hayes, Yongjun Zheng

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the U.S. Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, the authors analyzed the soil moisture at the near-surface soil layer and the entire soil column, as well as the Palmer drought severity index, the Palmer Z index, and the standardized precipitation and evaporation index using the output from the Community Climate System Model, version …

Upper Blue Nile Basin Water Budget From A Multi-Model Perspective, Hahn Chul Jung, Augusto Getirana, Frederick Policelli, Amy Mcnally, Kristi R. Arsenault, Sujay Kumar, Tsegaye Tadesse, Christa D. Peters-Lidard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based …

Climate Change And Population Growth Impacts On Surface Water Supply And Demand Of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Bisrat Kifle Arsiso, Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu, Gerrit Hendrik Stoffberg, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study includes analysis of water consumption, hydrological information and climate data which is statistically downscaled using approach used to generate climate data available at the Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 …

Agricultural Trade Publications And The 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought: A Missed Opportunity For Climate Risk Communication, Sarah P. Church, Tonya Haigh, Melissa Widhalm, Silvestre Garcia De Jalon, Nicholas Babin, J. Stuart Carlton, Michael Dunn, Katie Fagan, Cody L. Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Midwestern United States experienced a devastating drought in 2012, leading to reduced corn and soybean yields and increased instances of pests and disease. Climate change induced weather variability and extremes are expected to increase in the future, and have and will continue to impact the agricultural sector. This study investigated how agricultural trade publications portrayed the 2012 U.S. Midwestern drought, whether climate change was associated with drought, and whether these publications laid out transformative adaptation measures farmers could undertake in order to increase their adaptive capacity for future climate uncertainty. We performed a content analysis of 1000 media reports …

Information Mining From Heterogeneous Data Sources: A Case Study On Drought Predictions, Getachew B. Demisse, Tsegaye Tadesse, Solomon Atnafu, Shawndra Hill, Brian D. Wardlow, Yared Bayissa, Andualem Shiferaw

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this study was to develop information mining methodology for drought modeling and predictions using historical records of climate, satellite, environmental, and oceanic data. The classification and regression tree (CART) approach was used for extracting drought episodes at different time-lag prediction intervals. Using the CART approach, a number of successful model trees were constructed, which can easily be interpreted and used by decision makers in their drought management decisions. The regression rules produced by CART were found to have correlation coefficients from 0.71–0.95 in rules-alone modeling. The accuracies of the models were found to be higher in the …

Socio-Environmental Drought Response In A Mixed Urban-Agricultural Setting: Synthesizing Biophysical And Governance Responses In The Platte River Watershed, Nebraska, Usa, Samuel C. Zipper, Kelly Helm Smith, Betsy Breyer, Jianxiao Qui, Anthony Kung, Dustin Herrmann

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Ensuring global food and water security requires a detailed understanding of how coupled socio-environmental systems respond to drought. Using the Platte River Watershed in Nebraska (USA) as an exemplar mixed urban-agricultural watershed, we quantify biophysical response to drought in urban (Lincoln NE) and agricultural systems alongside a qualitative analysis of governance response and adaptive capacity of both sectors. Synthesis of results highlights parallels and discontinuities between urban and agricultural preparations for and response to drought. Whereas drought prompted an increase in well installations and expansion of water-intensive crops, e.g., corn, in the agricultural sector, outdoor water use restrictions rapidly curtailed …

Cocorahs Observers Contribute To “Condition Monitoring” In The Carolinas: A New Initiative Addresses Needs For Drought Impacts Information, Kirsten Lackstrom, Amanda Farris, David Eckhardt, Nolan Doesken, Henry Reges, Julian Turner, Kelly Helm Smith, Rebecca Ward

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

High Plains Regional Climate Center (Poster)

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The HPRCC provides the public with several ways to access climate data and information. Whether via direct contact, website access, or through a subscription to one of HPRCC’s online services, users can acquire a variety of climate data products, such as: • Near Real-Time and Historical Climate Data • National and Regional Climate Data Maps • Agricultural Climate Products • Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Regional Climate Summaries

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- January 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Jamie Lahowetz, Bill Sorensen, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

30th anniversary......................1

Stakeholder engagement activities......................................2

Product highlights..................3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

Services update........................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

A Model-Based Assessment Of Potential Impacts Of Man-Made Reservoirs On Precipitation, Jesse Winchester, Rezaul Mahmood, William Rodgers, Faisal Hossain, Eric Rappin, Joshua D. Durkee, Themis Chronis

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Land-use land-cover change (LULCC) plays an important role in weather and climate systems. Human modifications of land cover include building reservoirs and thus creating artificial lakes for multipurpose use. In this research, the authors have completed a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–based assessment of impacts of two large parallel lakes on precipitation. This area is located in the western part of the states of Kentucky and Tennessee and known as the Land between the Lakes (LBL). To determine the impacts, this study has replaced the lakes with grass, deciduous forests, and bare soil and conducted model simulations for three …

The Effect Of The Dry Line And Convective Initiation On Drought Evolution Over Oklahoma During The 2011 Drought, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Bradley G. Illston, Jason A. Otkin

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet and high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were used to evaluate the effect that the dry line and large-scale atmospheric patterns had on drought evolution during 2011. Mesonet observations showed that a “dry” and “wet” pattern developed across Oklahoma due to anomalous atmospheric patterns. The location of the dry line varied due to this “dry” and “wet” pattern, with the average dry line location around 1.5∘ longitude further to the east than climatology.Model simulations were used to further quantify the impact of variable surface conditions on dry line evolution and convective initiation (CI) …

Useful To Usable: Developing Usable Climate Science For Agriculture, Linda Stalker Prokopy, J. Stuart Carlton, Tonya Haigh, Maria Carmen Lemos, Amber Saylor Mase, Melissa Widhalm

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Useful to Usable (U2U) project was a six-year research and extension project funded by the United States Department of Agriculture to provide both useful and usable climate information for the agricultural (corn) sector in the Midwestern United States. The project adopted an extensive co-production of knowledge and decision-making approach that involved intense iteration with potential end-users, including farmers and a variety of professional agricultural advisors, through focus groups and surveys, feedback at outreach events, and frequent informal interactions to develop both decision support tools and delivery mechanisms that met stakeholder needs. This overview paper for this special issue illustrates …

Droughtscape, Winter 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC partners with Sioux tribes to build climate resiliency

Drought intensifies in some regions of U.S. in fall

Fire danger and sequoia deaths in third quarter

2016: Year in review

MENA region forums elicit

feedback from stakeholders

Tech pass-off in Tunisia

Midwest DEWS meetings build collaboration, relationships

Workshop links drought, socioeconomic impacts/p>

Drought center helps ranchers prepare for drought

Drought tourney in Nebraska goes low tech

Compensatory Response Of Fathead Minnow Larvae Following A Pulsed In-Situ Exposure To A Seasonal Agricultural Runoff Event, Jonathan M. Ali, John Sangster, Daniel D. Snow, Shannon L. Bartelt-Hunt, Alan S. Kolok

Nebraska Water Center: Faculty Publications

Agriculturally-dominated waterways such as those found throughout the Midwestern United States often experience seasonal pulses of agrichemical contaminants which pose a potential hazard to aquatic organisms at varying life stages. The objective of this study was to characterize the developmental plasticity of fathead minnow larvae in a natural environment subject to a seasonal episodic perturbation in the form of a complex mixture of agricultural stressors. Fathead minnow larvae were maintained at the Elkhorn River Research Station for a 28-d in situ exposure to an agrichemical pulse event.Minnow larvae were sampled after 14 and 28 days to characterize developmental plasticity through …

Australian Shelf Sediments Reveal Shifts In Miocene Southern Hemisphere Westerlies, Jeroen Groeneveld, Jorijntje Henderiks, Willem Renema, Cecilia M. Mchugh, David De Vleeschouwer, Beth A. Christensen, Craig S. Fulthorpe, Lars Reuning, Stephen J. Gallagher, Kara Bogus, Gerald Auer, Takeshige Ishiwa, Expedition 356 Scientists

Publications and Research

Global climate underwent a major reorganization when the Antarctic ice sheet expanded ~14 million years ago (Ma) (1). This event affected global atmospheric circulation, including the strength and position of the westerlies and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and, therefore, precipitation patterns (2–5). We present new shallow-marine sediment records from the continental shelf of Australia (International Ocean Discovery Program Sites U1459 and U1464) providing the first empirical evidence linking high-latitude cooling around Antarctica to climate change in the (sub)tropics during the Miocene. We show that Western Australia was arid during most of the Middle Miocene. Southwest Australia became wetter during …

Assessing Responses Of Betula Papyrifera (Paper Birch) To Climate Variability In A Remnant Population Along The Niobrara River In Nebraska Through Dendroecological And Remote Sensing Techniques, Evan Bumann

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Remnant populations of the boreal species Betula papyrifera, found along north-facing canyons and river banks of the Niobrara River Valley in north-central Nebraska, represent one of the southernmost distributions of the species in North America. Although, the species has persisted in the Great Plains after the Wisconsin Glaciation due to the local topography and microclimatic conditions, canopy dieback has been reported in recent years, which is believed to be attributed to temperature change. Therefore, the goals of this research are to: 1) use dendroecological techniques, or the study of tree rings to assess the responses B. papyrifera to intra- and …