Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment Commons^™

Global Climate Change I-Ii, Kendall Barrett Sooter, Dione Rossiter, Costanza Rampini

Faculty Publications, Environmental Studies

Many different scientific observations and measurements indicate that Earth is experiencing global-scale changes in climate, i.e., in the long-term distributions of temperature, cloud cover, precipitation, and extreme weather events. Scientific consensus considers most these changes to be caused or accelerated by human activities. The economic, ecological, social, and cultural challenges caused by global climate change will affect everyone on the planet, and are very likely to have disproportionate impacts on developing nations. In this course, we will study global climate change from an interdisciplinary perspective, incorporating natural and social science approaches to understanding processes and effects. We will study the …

Drought And Land-Cover Conditions In The Great Plains, Heather Tollerud, Jesslyn Brown, Thomas Loveland, Rezaul Mahmood, Norman Bliss

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Land–atmosphere interactions play a critical role in the Earth system, and a better understanding of these interactions could improve weather and climate models. The interaction among drought, vegetation productivity, and land cover is of particular significance. In a semiarid environment, such as the U.S. Great Plains, droughts can have a large influence on the productivity of agriculture and grasslands, with serious environmental and economic impacts. Here, we used the vegetation drought response index (VegDRI) drought indicator to investigate the response of vegetation to weather and climate for landcover types in the Great Plains in the United States from 1989 to …

Droughtscape, Winter 2018, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Year in review: Drought eased in California, developed in Northern Plains

Quarterly Summary: Drought creeps across the country

Annual impact summary: A year of wildfires

Quarterly impact summary: Drought expands in Texas, Colorado

Drought and water crisis book updated

U.S. Drought Monitor available in Spanish

Study shows cities step up when drought occurs

New staff at the NDMC

Drought Summit in photos

Sustainability At Sit: A Look At The Past, A Plan For The Future, Taliesin Haugh

Capstone Collection

Climate change threatens our world and way of life. Intelligent development and investment could mitigate the worst threats of climate change, while simultaneously providing continuous growth for the global economy. The New Climate Economy proposes efforts to combat this ecological collapse that would result in $30 trillion in new annual economic growth by 2030. Stockholm Resilience Center agrees, giving a framework based on global ecological systems that calls for five critical tasks that can bring growth and stability: Renewable energy

Sustainable local food production

New development models, based on what has worked globally

Reduction of wealth inequity

Education, health, and …

Agricultural Intensification In The Midwest: Impacts On Regional Surface Humidity, Andrew Hill

All Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Other Capstone Projects

An overwhelming majority of anthropogenic climate change studies have placed emphasis on biogeochemical agents, chiefly carbon dioxide emissions, which operate on a global scale. Fewer studies focus on biophysical factors such as land use/ land cover which operate on a regional or local scale. The impact from biophysical factors will continue to be reinforced with a growing human population and expanding resource demands. Of these factors, agricultural land use represents one of the largest, most extensive, and vital land use allocations.

The U.S. Midwest, dominated by rain-fed corn and soybean agriculture, is a key agricultural region which is lacking in …

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- January 2018, Natalie Umphlett, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Weather photo of the quarter.................................................. 1

2017 - year in review..............2

2017 climate in the High Plains............................................3

Update on La Niña..................3

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

Product Highlight....................4

HPRCC Turns 30........................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Public Participation During Reactive, Crisis-Driven Drought Planning Versus Proactive, Preparedness Planning, C. Anna Ulaszewski

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

Droughts are occurring globally and should be recognized as a global issue and drought planning should use a proactive approach on the part of the world community. However, much drought planning, even in developed and highly developed countries, is reactive and programs are often poorly coordinated sometimes with unforeseen negative consequences for marginalized and disenfranchised populations. Literature pertaining to planning strategy for existing, drought crises is nominal and often contributes to patterns of reactiveness and resulting inequity. To gain a better understanding of crisis-driven planning and the participatory process, this gap was viewed through the lenses of institutional analysis and …

Understanding The Food Water Nexus: Characterizing The Impact Of Climatological Anomalies On Agrosystems, Patrick M. Wurster Jr.

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

Climate variability at global and regional scales is escalating with increased atmospheric carbon and is expected to magnify the intensity and duration of meteorological extremes, especially droughts. From the many environmental stresses that diminish crop production (e.g., soil salinity, frost, soil erosion) drought is one of the most prevalent. This study focuses on the sensitivity of three key crops produced in the northwestern United States to climatological anomalies, while controlling for attribution using anomalies in price. The study differs from similar studies in that we focus on variability in production which captures both yield (tonnes/ha) and cropping area (ha), as …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2017, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought

Drought Continues to Cause Impacts

Large Butterfly Migration Across the Plains

High Winds Down Corn Across Nebraska

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Flash Droughts: A Review And Assessment Of The Challenges Imposed By Rapid-Onset Droughts In The United States, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Svoboda, Eric D. Hunt, Trent W. Ford, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Jeffrey B. Basara

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- October 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Warren Pettee, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Tribal engagement.................2

Product highlights..................3

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

ENSO tool...................................4

Wind River project..................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Do Advisors Perceive Climate Change As An Agricultural Risk? An In-Depth Examination Of Midwestern U.S. Ag Advisors’ Views On Drought, Climate Change, And Risk Management, Sarah P. Church, Michael Dunn, Nicholas Babin, Amber Saylor Mase, Tonya Haigh, Linda Stalker Prokopy

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Through the lens of the Health Belief Model and Protection Motivation Theory, we analyzed interviews of 36 agricultural advisors in Indiana and Nebraska to understand their appraisals of climate change risk, related decision making processes and subsequent risk management advice to producers. Most advisors interviewed accept that weather events are a risk for US Midwestern agriculture; however, they are more concerned about tangible threats such as crop prices. There is not much concern about climate change among agricultural advisors. Management practices that could help producers adapt to climate change were more likely to be recommended by conservation and Extension advisors, …

Agricultural Responses To Climate Change: A Study Of Adaptive Farming Methods In Kizanda Village, Bailey Smith-Helman

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Agriculture is vital to the economic and social systems in Tanzania, composing 30% of the country’s GDP as well as 80% of employment (FAO, 2014). Despite agriculture’s important role, it remains one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. Current trends project global average temperature to increase by 0.8-2.6 degrees Celsius, leaving farmers to face changes in rainfall, soil quality, and new pests and diseases (IPCC, 2007). Farmers will be forced to adapt to the changing climate if they are to sustain their livelihoods and the Tanzanian economy. For these reasons, it is important to understand the types of …

Droughtscape, Fall 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought worsens in northern Great Plains

Drought takes toll on agriculture, livestock

Study examines ag advisors’ views on climate change

New drought definition could lead to better preparation

McCook takes big steps toward drought readiness

Group hopes to map drought planning process for Korea

South African researcher working to forecast drought

Cultivating drought preparedness in South Africa

A Comparative Assessment Of Projected Meteorological And Hydrological Droughts: Elucidating The Role Of Temperature, Ali Ahmadalipour, Hamid Moradkhani, Mehmet C. Demirel

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

The changing climate and the associated future increases in temperature are expected to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cycle. This paper investigates the projected changes in spatiotemporal characteristics of droughts and their future attributes over the Willamette River Basin (WRB) in the Pacific Northwest U.S. The analysis is performed using two subsets of downscaled CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) each consisting of 10 models from two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 30 years of historical period (1970–1999) and 90 years of future projections (2010–2099). Hydrologic modeling is conducted using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as a …

The Influence Of Recurrent Modes Of Climate Variability On The Occurrence Of Monthly Temperature Extremes Over South America, Paul C. Loikith, Judah Detzer, Carlos R. Mechoso, Huikyo Lee, Armineh Barkhordarian

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

The associations between extreme temperature months and four prominent modes of recurrent climate variability are examined over South America. Associations are computed as the percent of extreme temperature months concurrent with the upper and lower quartiles of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Niño, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index distributions, stratified by season. The relationship is strongest for ENSO, with nearly every extreme temperature month concurrent with the upper or lower quartiles of its distribution in portions of northwestern South America during some seasons. The likelihood of extreme warm temperatures is enhanced …

Umphlett Qci Sept 2017, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought

Wildfires Impact Montana and Beyond

Kansas City, MO Area Flooding

Numerous Impacts to Agriculture

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Effects Of Climate Warming On Net Primary Productivity In China During 1961–2010, Fengxue Gu, Yuandong Zhang, Mei Huang, Bo Tao, Rui Guo, Changrong Yan

Plant and Soil Sciences Faculty Publications

The response of ecosystems to different magnitudes of climate warming and corresponding precipitation changes during the last few decades may provide an important reference for predicting the magnitude and trajectory of net primary productivity (NPP) in the future. In this study, a process-based ecosystem model, Carbon Exchange between Vegetation, Soil and Atmosphere (CEVSA), was used to investigate the response of NPP to warming at both national and subregional scales during 1961–2010. The results suggest that a 1.3°C increase in temperature stimulated the positive changing trend in NPP at national scale during the past 50 years. Regardless of the magnitude of …

Nuclear Weapons In A Changing Climate: Probability, Increasing Risks, And Perception, Adam Liska, Tyler R. White, Eric Holley, Robert J. Oglesby

Adam Liska Papers

Many people tend to think that the outcome of any nuclear weapons use today will result in an escalatory situation with apocalyptic outcomes for the countries involved. Yet many factors are increasing the probability of the limited use of nuclear weapons (e.g., 1 to 20 warheads) in a range of conflict scenarios. Previous atmospheric model simulations of regional nuclear conflicts employing many relatively small bombs have been estimated to cause a global “nuclear autumn,” with great reductions in agricultural productivity, stratospheric ozone loss, and spread of hazardous radioactive fallout. The totality of these effects would result in widespread damage …

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- July 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Bill Sorensen, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Drought update.......................2

Update on regional climate conditions..................................2

Product highlights..................3

AWDN information.................4

Climate adaptation award announcement.........................4

Workshops update..................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Mesonets: Mesoscale Weather And Climate Observations For The United States, Rezaul Mahmood, Ryan Boyles, Kevin Brinson, Christopher Fiebrich, Stuart Foster, Ken Hubbard, David Robinson, Jeff Andresen, Dan Leathers

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Mesoscale in situ meteorological observations are essential for better understanding and forecasting the weather and climate and to aid in decision-making by a myriad of stakeholder communities. They include, for example, state environmental and emergency management agencies, the commercial sector, media, agriculture, and the general public. Over the last three decades, a number of mesoscale weather and climate observation networks have become operational. These networks are known as mesonets. Most are operated by universities and receive different levels of funding. It is important to communicate the current status and critical roles the mesonets play. Most mesonets collect standard meteorological data …

Droughtscape, Summer 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought policy write shops conclude in Caribbean

Drought encroaches on Northern Plains in second quarter

Impact tool racks up submissions in second quarter

Maps on new website highlight drought effects on ag industry

Centers release new flash drought tool: QuickDRI

NDMC contributes to EU report on disaster risk management

Groups earn Climate Adaptation award for work with tribes

NDMC, ICPAC director talk collaboration on drought in Greater Horn of Africa

Up next in MENA: Drought vulnerability assessments

Economic Evaluation Of Coastal Land Loss In Louisiana, Stephen R. Barnes, Craig Bond, Nicholas Burger, Kate Anania, Aaron Strong, Sarah Weilant, Stephanie Virgets

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

Louisiana has lost approximately 1,880 square miles of land over the past eighty years. Projections suggest that in a future without action, the next fifty years could result in the loss of 1,750 additional square miles of land area. As land loss continues, a large portion of the natural and man-made capital stocks of coastal Louisiana will be at greater risk of damage, either from land loss or from the associated increase in storm damage. We estimate the replacement cost of capital stock directly at risk from land loss ranges from approximately $2.1 billion to $3.5 billion with economic activity …

Umphlett Qci June 2017, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Snowpack and Streamflow

Historic Flooding in Missouri

Spring Conditions Impact Agriculture

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Weather Variability And The Tourism Industry: A Panel Data Analysis, Carmela Coppola

Honors Projects in Economics

Increasing weather variability around the world has led to many researchers examining the impacts of weather variability on vulnerable industries. For example, the tourism industry can make up a large portion of an economy’s growth, with some of the most dependent countries relying on tourism for over 40% of GDP (World Travel & Tourism Council 2014). In an attempt to better understand the relationship between weather variability and the tourism industry at the country level, this study employs a series of fixed effects panel regression models to analyze the impact of rainfall and temperature on tourism levels and growth rates …

Modeling Gross Primary Production Of Midwest Maize And Soybean Croplands With Satellite And Gridded Weather Data, Gunnar Malek-Madani

Department of Geography: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The gross primary production (GPP) metric is useful in determining trends in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Models that determine GPP utilizing the light use efficiency (LUE) approach in conjunction with biophysical parameters that account for local weather conditions and crop specific factors are beneficial in that they combine the accuracy of the biophysical model with the versatility of the LUE model. One such model developed using in situ data was adapted to operate with remote sensing derived leaf area index (LAI) data and gridded weather datasets. The model, known as the Light Use Efficiency GPP Model (EGM), uses a four …

Droughtscape, Spring 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought center helps islands reduce drought vulnerability

2017 sees above-average precipitation, warmer temps

California pulls out of drought

After tech transfer, training Tunisia launches first drought map

Drought center releases 2016 annual report

Book chapter focuses on drought and health

U2U wraps up, brings useful tools to farmers

Survey finds drought info leads to better decisions

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- April 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Fisheries & wildlife climate workshop...................................2

Product highlights..................3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

NCA workshop and outreach activities......................................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Geographic Variation Of Cirques On Iceland: Factors Influencing Cirque Morphology, Heather A. Ipsen, Rachael E. Grube, Jessica F. Lee, Sarah M. Principato

Environmental Studies Faculty Publications

Cirques are one of the most common glacial landforms in alpine settings. They also provide important paleoclimate information (e.g. Meierding 1984; Evans 2006). The purpose of this study is to fill in gaps in the climate record of Iceland by conducting a quantitative analysis of cirques in three regions in Iceland: Tröllaskagi, the East Fjords, and Vestfirðir. Iceland, located in the center of the North Atlantic Ocean, contains many small glaciers, in addition to large ice caps. The glaciers on Iceland are particularly sensitive to variations in oceanic and atmospheric circulation (Andresen et al. 2005; Geirsdóttir et al., 2009; Ólafsdóttir …

Predicting The U.S. Drought Monitor Using Precipitation, Soil Moisture, And Evapotranspiration Anomalies. Part Ii: Intraseasonal Drought Intensification Forecasts, David J. Lorenz, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Svoboda, Christopher R. Hain, Martha C. Anderson, Yafang Zhong

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Probabilistic forecasts of U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) intensification over 2-, 4-, and 8-week time periods are developed based on recent anomalies in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. These statistical forecasts are computed using logistic regression with cross validation. While recent precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture do provide skillful forecasts, it is found that additional information on the current state of the USDM adds significant skill to the forecasts. The USDM state information takes the form of a metric that quantifies the ‘‘distance’’ from the next-higher drought category using a nondiscrete estimate of the current USDM state. This adds skill because …