Databases and Information Systems Commons^™

Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …

An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …

Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.

Workforce Preparedness Of Information Systems Students: Perceptions Of Students, Alumni, And Employers, Susan Bristow

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Employers of newly hired higher education graduates report their new workforce is not prepared. Further research was required to discover insights to the workforce readiness gap. This concurrent mixed methods study explored what competencies influenced employer's perceptions of the work-readiness of Information Systems (ISYS) undergraduate students and discovered ISYS graduates' and current ISYS students' perceptions of their work-readiness. Participants consisted of a convenience sample including 69 ISYS program upperclassmen, 20 ISYS program alumni, and 8 employers of the ISYS program graduates. ISYS program alumni completed an online Qualtrics survey to measure the participants' perception of their workforce preparedness. ISYS program …

Consumer Adoption Of Health Information Systems, Sankara Subramanian Srinivasan

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

At nearly 18 percent of the country's GDP, the U.S. healthcare industry continues to wrestle with growing cost and a quality of care that does not match the increased spending. The dominant focus to date has been on promoting Health IT (HIT) system implementation and digitizing health records at the provider's end, with scant attention to the role of the patient in the healthcare process. The source of inefficiency in the healthcare system is not only on account of shortcomings at the provider's end but also due to non-compliance (such as failing to adhere to medication advice and follow-up visits) …

Mining Fraudulent Patterns In Online Advertising, Richard J. Oentaryo, Ee-Peng Lim

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Advances in web technologies have rendered onlineadvertising as an effective means for small and large businesses to target different market segments on the fly. Online advertising is a huge industry. According to Gartner Inc., worldwide online advertising revenue is projected tohit $11.4 billion in 2013, up from $9.6 billion in 2012. Global revenue will also reach $24.5 billion in 2016, with online advertising creating opportunities for app developers, advertising networks, and service providersin various regions. An online advertising ecosystem is typically coordinated by an advertising commissioner, acting as a broker between advertisers and content publishers. An advertiser plans a budget, …

The Impact Of Ineffective Internal Control On The Value Relevance Of Accounting Information, Nan Hu, Baolei Qi, Gaoliang Tian, Lee Yao, Zhen Zeng

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

This paper investigates the value relevance of accounting information in the presence of ineffective internal control (IIC). Based on Ohlson's valuation model, this paper first documents that IIC can directly affect a firm's market value after control cost of capital, corporate governance, and other, value-relevant variables. Second, this paper finds that the value relevance of earnings and book value in determining a firm's market value are significantly reduced. Collectively, the results of this paper indicate that the effectiveness of internal controls can directly affect a firm's market value and the value relevance of accounting information.

A Study On The Application Of Information System In Patrol Vessel Management, Lei Li

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Research On The Establishment Of Promulgation System Of Maritime Safety Information In Chengshan Jiao Vts Center, Yunjiang Liu

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Robust Median Reversion Strategy For On-Line Portfolio Selection, Dingjiang Huang, Junlong Zhou, Bin Li, Steven Hoi, Shuigeng Zhou

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

On-line portfolio selection has been attracting increasing interests from artificial intelligence community in recent decades. Mean reversion, as one most frequent pattern in financial markets, plays an important role in some state-of-the-art strategies. Though successful in certain datasets, existing mean reversion strategies do not fully consider noises and outliers in the data, leading to estimation error and thus non-optimal portfolios, which results in poor performance in practice. To overcome the limitation, we propose to exploit the reversion phenomenon by robust L₁-median estimator, and design a novel on-line portfolio selection strategy named "Robust Median Reversion" (RMR), which makes optimal …

Usability Of Performance Dashboards, Usefulness Of Operational And Tactical Support, And Quality Of Strategic Support: A Research Framework, Bih-Ru Lea, Fiona Fui-Hoon Nah

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Performance dashboards are used as a strategic decision support tool in organizations. In this research, we examine the relationships between the usability of performance dashboards, the usefulness of operational and tactical support, and the quality of strategic support that they provide. We hypothesize that usability of performance dashboards will influence user perceptions of the usefulness of the operational and tactical support provided by the dashboards, which in turn influence the perceived quality of strategic support provided.

Concept Graphs: Applications To Biomedical Text Categorization And Concept Extraction, Said Bleik

Dissertations

As science advances, the underlying literature grows rapidly providing valuable knowledge mines for researchers and practitioners. The text content that makes up these knowledge collections is often unstructured and, thus, extracting relevant or novel information could be nontrivial and costly. In addition, human knowledge and expertise are being transformed into structured digital information in the form of vocabulary databases and ontologies. These knowledge bases hold substantial hierarchical and semantic relationships of common domain concepts. Consequently, automating learning tasks could be reinforced with those knowledge bases through constructing human-like representations of knowledge. This allows developing algorithms that simulate the human reasoning …

Integrating Strategic And Tactical Rolling Stock Models With Cyclical Demand, Michael F. Gorman

MIS/OM/DS Faculty Publications

In the transportation industry, companies position rolling stock where it is likely to be needed in the face of a pronounced weekly cyclical demand pattern in orders.

Strategic policies based on assumptions of repetition of cyclical weekly patterns set rolling stock targets; during tactical execution, a myriad dynamic influences cause deviations from strategically set targets. We find that optimal strategic plans do not agree with results of tactical modeling; strategic results are in fact suboptimal in many tactical situations. We discuss managerial implications of this finding and how the two modeling paradigms can be reconciled.

Core Versus Peripheral Information Technology Employees And Their Impact On Firm Performance, Ling Liu, Daniel Q. Chen, Nan Hu, Indranil Bose, Garry D. Bruton

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Scholars have widely argued, but not previously examined, that core employees with firm specific skills are critical to the firm's strategic success. This argument has led to the belief that employees whose skills are not firm specific can be readily replaced in the external market and are peripheral to the firm's strategic goals. Employing a resource based view of the firm, we find that the core information technology (IT) employees with firm specific skills are value-adding resources that aid the firm's performance whereas peripheral employees with less firm specific skills provide no value to the firm's performance. Examining the issue …

Confidence Weighted Mean Reversion Strategy For Online Portfolio Selection, Bin Li, Steven C. H. Hoi, Peilin Zhao, Vivekanand Gopalkrishnan

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Online portfolio selection has been attracting increasing attention from the data mining and machine learning communities. All existing online portfolio selection strategies focus on the first order information of a portfolio vector, though the second order information may also be beneficial to a strategy. Moreover, empirical evidence shows that relative stock prices may follow the mean reversion property, which has not been fully exploited by existing strategies. This article proposes a novel online portfolio selection strategy named Confidence Weighted Mean Reversion (CWMR). Inspired by the mean reversion principle in finance and confidence weighted online learning technique in machine learning, CWMR …

Stock Market Prediction Without Sentiment Analysis: Using A Web-Traffic Based Classifier And User-Level Analysis, Pierpaolo Dondio

Conference papers

This paper provides further evidence on the predictive power of online community traffic with regard to stock prices. Using the largest dataset to date, spanning 8 years and almost the complete set of SP500 stocks, we train a classifier using a set of features entirely extracted from web-traffic data of financial online communities. The classifier is shown to outperform the predictive power of a baseline classifier solely based on price time-series, and to have similar performances as the classifier built considering price and traffic features together. The best predictive performances are achieved when information about stock capitalization is coupled with …

Detecting Mobility Patterns In Mobile Phone Data From The Ivory Coast, Matthew Dixon, Spencer P. Aiello, Funmi Fapohunda, William Goldstein

Business Analytics and Information Systems

This paper investigates the Data for Development (D4D) challenge [3], an open challenge set by the French mobile phone company, Orange, who have provided anonymized records of their customers in the Ivory Coast. This data spans a 5 month (150 day) horizon spread across 4 different sets containing antenna-to-antenna traffic, trace data for 50,000 customers at varying spatial resolution, and social graphs for 5,000 customers. By leveraging cloud-based and open-source analytics infrastructure to (1) merge the D4D datasets with Geographic Information System (GIS) data and (2) apply data mining algorithms, this paper presents a number of techniques for detecting mobility …

Queuepay.Com: Building A System For Cardholders' Transaction Security, Jose Ramon Gonzalez

Theses Digitization Project

The purpose of this project was to apply the skills learned in the MBA program to help develop a solution to a problem that costs billions of dollars every year in fraudulent related losses arising from the use of payment cards such as debit cards, credit cards, charge cards or prepaid cards. The project analyzes the industry of payment cards, the emergence of the problem, and builds a prototype that addresses the problem. Queuepay.com is designed to provide services to its cardholders that will significantly reduce the risk of fraud.

An Analysis Of Underlying Competencies And Computer And Information Technology Learning Objectives For Business Analysis, Ryan Thomas Quigley

Open Access Theses

This research examines whether the Computer and Information Technology (CIT) department at Purdue University should develop a business analyst concentration. The differences between system and business analysts, evolution of the business analyst profession, job demand and trends, and applicable model curricula were explored to support this research. Review of relevant literature regarding the topics suggested that a business analyst concentration should be developed. A gap analysis was performed to determine how well selected CIT courses address the skills and competencies required by today's business analysts. The primary finding, as a result of the analysis, was that CIT courses alone are …

Consumer Acceptance Of Mobile Payments In Restaurants, Anna Shatskikh

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Regardless all the advantages of MPs, it has not reach the sizable customer base. In this paper, we examined the core drivers of using mobile payments (MPs) in restaurant industry from the consumers' perspective. Based on the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), we developed a six factor model to reveal the determinants of consumers' intention to use MPs in restaurant. Security, subjective norm, compatibility with lifestyle, and previous experience with MPs were added to the traditional two factor TAM model (usefulness and ease of use). 300 respondents were recruited from an online survey agency and 258 valid responses were included in …

Seller Diversity On A Technology-Based Platform, Ruhai Wu, Mei Lin

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Managing a technology portfolio is one of the great challenges for sustained success, especially in high-technology industrieswhere technologies can be a major selling point. For engineers, this portfolio is more of a toolbox for solving design problems,but in large organizations there can be so many technologies used in different business areas that even the engineers may not beaware of all of them. When the same technologies are used in different types of products, knowledge about them can also begenerated by various groups within an organization. To improve the usefulness of a company's technology base, this paperproposes the use of a …

Synergy And Its Limits In Managing Information Technology Professionals, Thomas W. Ferratt, Jayesh Prasad, Harvey Enns

MIS/OM/DS Faculty Publications

We examine the effects of human resource management (HRM) practices (e.g., career development, social support, compensation, and security) on IT professionals‟ job search behavior. Job search is a relatively novel dependent variable in studies of voluntary withdrawal behavior, in general, and for IT professionals, in particular. From a universalistic perspective, HRM practices individually and in combination exhibit independently additive effects on job search behavior. Our study contrasts this perspective with configurational theory, hypothesizing that proposed idealtype configurations of HRM practices have synergistic effects on job search behavior. We contribute to the IT and broader HRM literature by theoretically explicating and …

The Factors Behind A Successful Implementation Of Electronic Health Records Systems, Anjee Gorkhali

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This research explores the role that budget for Information System (IS) and technical expertise of healthcare service provider staff play on the successful leap from a partial to exhaustive implementation of Electronic Health Records (EHR) Systems. Technical expertise in Information Systems might not be easily measurable directly, but there are a number of indicators that could be used as a proxy, such as: Information System (IS) Department Budget, number of IS staff and the extent of technical trainings provided by the IS department to the clinical staff. This research study hypothesizes that quality technical trainings conducted by an IS department …

Principles For Conducting Critical Realist Case Study Research In Information Systems, Donald E. Wynn, Clay K. Williams

MIS/OM/DS Faculty Publications

Critical realism is emerging as a viable philosophical paradigm for conducting social science research, and has been proposed as an alternative to the more prevalent paradigms of positivism and interpretivism. Few papers, however, have offered clear guidance for applying this philosophy to actual research methodologies. Under critical realism, a causal explanation for a given phenomenon is inferred by explicitly identifying the means by which structural entities and contextual conditions interact to generate a given set of events. Consistent with this view of causality, we propose a set of methodological principles for conducting and evaluating critical realism-based explanatory case study research …

(Hidden) Social Influences In Switching Mobile Service Platforms, Virpi K. Tuunainen, Tuure Tuunanen, Fiona Fui-Hoon Nah

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

During the past few years, the mobile industry has gone through a radical change from business focusing on excellence in device manufacturing and supply chain management to ecosystems around successful focal players, such as Apple and Google, controlling these service platforms. In order to compete in this environment, these firms need to understand what makes a consumer switch between these mobile service platforms. To that end, we conducted an inductive qualitative study with university students from Finland and USA as subjects (142 altogether), delving into how and why consumers switch mobile phones, and what are the factors affecting their decisions. …