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Full-Text Articles in Computer Sciences

Advances In Documentation, Digital Curation, Virtual Exhibition, And A Test Of 3d Geometric Morhpometrics: A Case Study Of The Vanderpool Vessels From The Ancestral Caddo Territory, Robert Z. Selden Jr., Timothy K. Perttula, Michael J. O'Brien Jan 2014

Advances In Documentation, Digital Curation, Virtual Exhibition, And A Test Of 3d Geometric Morhpometrics: A Case Study Of The Vanderpool Vessels From The Ancestral Caddo Territory, Robert Z. Selden Jr., Timothy K. Perttula, Michael J. O'Brien

CRHR: Archaeology

Three-dimensional (3D) digital scanning of archaeological materials is typically used as a tool for artifact documentation. With the permission of the Caddo Nation of Oklahoma, 3D documentation of Caddo funerary vessels from the Vanderpool site (41SM77) was conducted with the initial goal of ensuring that these data would be publicly available for future research long after the vessels were repatriated. A digital infrastructure was created to archive and disseminate the resultant 3D datasets, ensuring that they would be accessible by both researchers and the general public (CRHR 2014a). However, 3D imagery can be used for much more than documentation. To …


R Code To Accompany “Principal Component Analysis And Optimization: A Tutorial”, Robert Reris, J. Paul Brooks Jan 2014

R Code To Accompany “Principal Component Analysis And Optimization: A Tutorial”, Robert Reris, J. Paul Brooks

Statistical Sciences and Operations Research Data

This data accompanies "Principal Component Analysis and Optimization: A Tutorial" by Robert Reris and J. Paul Brooks, presented at the 2015 INFORMS Computing Society Conference, Operations Research and Computing: Algorithms and Software for Analytics, Richmond, Virginia January 11-13, 2015.

The data contains R code, output, and comments that follow the examples for principal component analysis in the paper.


Data Files To Accompany "The Support Vector Machine And Mixed Integer Linear Programming: Ramp Loss Svm With L1-Norm Regularization", Eric J. Hess, J. Paul Brooks Jan 2014

Data Files To Accompany "The Support Vector Machine And Mixed Integer Linear Programming: Ramp Loss Svm With L1-Norm Regularization", Eric J. Hess, J. Paul Brooks

Statistical Sciences and Operations Research Data

These files accompany, "The Support Vector Machine and Mixed Integer Linear Programming: Ramp Loss SVM with L1-Norm Regularization" by Eric J. Hess and J. Paul Brooks, presented at the 2015 INFORMS Computing Society Conference, Operations Research and Computing: Algorithms and Software for Analytics, Richmond, Virginia January 11-13, 2015.

The files contain instances of optimization problems that are described in the paper and for which results are reported. The files are in CPLEX LP format. The naming convention of the files is as follows: ndBTj0F.lp, where is the number of samples, is the number of attributes, and refers to …


Vulnerability Analysis Of Cyber-Behavioral Biometric Authentication, Abdul Serwadda Jan 2014

Vulnerability Analysis Of Cyber-Behavioral Biometric Authentication, Abdul Serwadda

Doctoral Dissertations

Research on cyber-behavioral biometric authentication has traditionally assumed naïve (or zero-effort) impostors who make no attempt to generate sophisticated forgeries of biometric samples. Given the plethora of adversarial technologies on the Internet, it is questionable as to whether the zero-effort threat model provides a realistic estimate of how these authentication systems would perform in the wake of adversity. To better evaluate the efficiency of these authentication systems, there is need for research on algorithmic attacks which simulate the state-of-the-art threats.

To tackle this problem, we took the case of keystroke and touch-based authentication and developed a new family of algorithmic …


Performance Modeling And Optimization Techniques For Heterogeneous Computing, Supada Laosooksathit Jan 2014

Performance Modeling And Optimization Techniques For Heterogeneous Computing, Supada Laosooksathit

Doctoral Dissertations

Since Graphics Processing Units (CPUs) have increasingly gained popularity amoung non-graphic and computational applications, known as General-Purpose computation on GPU (GPGPU), CPUs have been deployed in many clusters, including the world's fastest supercomputer. However, to make the most efficiency from a GPU system, one should consider both performance and reliability of the system.

This dissertation makes four major contributions. First, the two-level checkpoint/restart protocol that aims to reduce the checkpoint and recovery costs with a latency hiding strategy in a system between a CPU (Central Processing Unit) and a GPU is proposed. The experimental results and analysis reveals some benefits, …


Roughened Random Forests For Binary Classification, Kuangnan Xiong Jan 2014

Roughened Random Forests For Binary Classification, Kuangnan Xiong

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Binary classification plays an important role in many decision-making processes. Random forests can build a strong ensemble classifier by combining weaker classification trees that are de-correlated. The strength and correlation among individual classification trees are the key factors that contribute to the ensemble performance of random forests. We propose roughened random forests, a new set of tools which show further improvement over random forests in binary classification. Roughened random forests modify the original dataset for each classification tree and further reduce the correlation among individual classification trees. This data modification process is composed of artificially imposing missing data that are …


Measuring Security: A Challenge For The Generation, Janusz Zalewski, Steven Drager, William Mckeever, Andrew J. Kornecki Jan 2014

Measuring Security: A Challenge For The Generation, Janusz Zalewski, Steven Drager, William Mckeever, Andrew J. Kornecki

Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science - Daytona Beach

This paper presents an approach to measuring computer security understood as a system property, in the category of similar properties, such as safety, reliability, dependability, resilience, etc. First, a historical discussion of measurements is presented, beginning with views of Hermann von Helmholtz in his 19th century work “Zählen und Messen”. Then, contemporary approaches related to the principles of measuring software properties are discussed, with emphasis on statistical, physical and software models. A distinction between metrics and measures is made to clarify the concepts. A brief overview of inadequacies of methods and techniques to evaluate computer security is presented, followed by …


A Fault-Based Model Of Fault Localization Techniques, Mark A. Hays Jan 2014

A Fault-Based Model Of Fault Localization Techniques, Mark A. Hays

Theses and Dissertations--Computer Science

Every day, ordinary people depend on software working properly. We take it for granted; from banking software, to railroad switching software, to flight control software, to software that controls medical devices such as pacemakers or even gas pumps, our lives are touched by software that we expect to work. It is well known that the main technique/activity used to ensure the quality of software is testing. Often it is the only quality assurance activity undertaken, making it that much more important.

In a typical experiment studying these techniques, a researcher will intentionally seed a fault (intentionally breaking the functionality of …


A Statistical Fmri Model For Differential T2* Contrast Incorporating T1 And T2* Of Gray Matter, M. Muge Karaman, Iain P. Bruce, Daniel B. Rowe Jan 2014

A Statistical Fmri Model For Differential T2* Contrast Incorporating T1 And T2* Of Gray Matter, M. Muge Karaman, Iain P. Bruce, Daniel B. Rowe

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

Relaxation parameter estimation and brain activation detection are two main areas of study in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Relaxation parameters can be used to distinguish voxels containing different types of tissue whereas activation determines voxels that are associated with neuronal activity. In fMRI, the standard practice has been to discard the first scans to avoid magnetic saturation effects. However, these first images have important information on the MR relaxivities for the type of tissue contained in voxels, which could provide pathological tissue discrimination. It is also well-known that the voxels located in gray matter …


Trivial Meet And Join Within The Lattice Of Monotone Triangles, John Engbers, Adam Hammett Jan 2014

Trivial Meet And Join Within The Lattice Of Monotone Triangles, John Engbers, Adam Hammett

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

The lattice of monotone triangles (�n, ≼) ordered by entry-wise comparisons is studied. Let τmin denote the unique minimal element in this lattice, and τmax the unique maximum. The number of r-tuples of monotone triangles (τ1...,τr) with minimul infimum τmin (maximul supremum τmax, resp.) is shown to asymptotically approach r|�n|r-1 as n→ ∞. Thus, with high probability this even implies that one of the τi is τmin (τmax, resp.). Higher-order error terms are also discussed.


Master Regulators, Regulatory Networks, And Pathways Of Glioblastoma Subtypes, Serdar Bozdag, Aiguo Li, Mehmet Baysan, Howard A. Fine Jan 2014

Master Regulators, Regulatory Networks, And Pathways Of Glioblastoma Subtypes, Serdar Bozdag, Aiguo Li, Mehmet Baysan, Howard A. Fine

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is the most common malignant brain tumor. GBM samples are classified into subtypes based on their transcriptomic and epigenetic profiles. Despite numerous studies to better characterize GBM biology, a comprehensive study to identify GBM subtype-specific master regulators, gene regulatory networks, and pathways is missing. Here, we used FastMEDUSA to compute master regulators and gene regulatory networks for each GBM subtype. We also ran Gene Set Enrichment Analysis and Ingenuity Pathway Analysis on GBM expression dataset from The Cancer Genome Atlas Project to compute GBM- and GBM subtype-specific pathways. Our analysis was able to recover some of the …


Hp-Daemon: HIgh PErformance DIstributed ADaptive ENergy-Efficient MAtrix-MultiplicatiOn, Li Tan, Longxiang Chen, Zizhong Chen, Ziliang Zong, Rong Ge, Dong Li Jan 2014

Hp-Daemon: HIgh PErformance DIstributed ADaptive ENergy-Efficient MAtrix-MultiplicatiOn, Li Tan, Longxiang Chen, Zizhong Chen, Ziliang Zong, Rong Ge, Dong Li

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

The demands of improving energy efficiency for high performance scientific applications arise crucially nowadays. Software-controlled hardware solutions directed by Dynamic Voltage and Frequency Scaling (DVFS) have shown their effectiveness extensively. Although DVFS is beneficial to green computing, introducing DVFS itself can incur non-negligible overhead, if there exist a large number of frequency switches issued by DVFS. In this paper, we propose a strategy to achieve the optimal energy savings for distributed matrix multiplication via algorithmically trading more computation and communication at a time adaptively with user-specified memory costs for less DVFS switches, which saves 7.5% more energy on average than …


Recurrence Relations For Moments Of Dual Generalized Order Statistics From Weibull Gamma Distribution And Its Characterizations, M. A. W. Mahmoud, Y. Abdel-Aty, N. M. Mohamed, Gholamhossein Hamedani Jan 2014

Recurrence Relations For Moments Of Dual Generalized Order Statistics From Weibull Gamma Distribution And Its Characterizations, M. A. W. Mahmoud, Y. Abdel-Aty, N. M. Mohamed, Gholamhossein Hamedani

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

In this paper, we establish explicit forms and new recurrence relations satisfied by the single and product moments of dual generalized order statistics from Weibull gamma distribution (WGD). The results include as particular cases the relations for moments of reversed order statistics and lower records. We present characterizations of WGD based on (i) recurrence relation for single moments, (ii) truncated moments of certain function of the variable and (iii) hazard function.


Indemics: An Interactive High-Performance Computing Framework For Data Intensive Epidemic Modeling, Keith R. Bisset, Jiangzhuo Chen, Suruchi Deodhar, Xizhou Feng, Yifei Ma, Madhav V. Marathe Jan 2014

Indemics: An Interactive High-Performance Computing Framework For Data Intensive Epidemic Modeling, Keith R. Bisset, Jiangzhuo Chen, Suruchi Deodhar, Xizhou Feng, Yifei Ma, Madhav V. Marathe

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

We describe the design and prototype implementation of Indemics (_Interactive; Epi_demic; _Simulation;)—a modeling environment utilizing high-performance computing technologies for supporting complex epidemic simulations. Indemics can support policy analysts and epidemiologists interested in planning and control of pandemics. Indemics goes beyond traditional epidemic simulations by providing a simple and powerful way to represent and analyze policy-based as well as individual-based adaptive interventions. Users can also stop the simulation at any point, assess the state of the simulated system, and add additional interventions. Indemics is available to end-users via a web-based interface.

Detailed performance analysis shows that Indemics greatly enhances the …


Efficient Detection Of Counterfeit Products In Large-Scale Rfid Systems Using Batch Authentication Protocols, Farzana Rahman, Sheikh Iqbal Ahamed Jan 2014

Efficient Detection Of Counterfeit Products In Large-Scale Rfid Systems Using Batch Authentication Protocols, Farzana Rahman, Sheikh Iqbal Ahamed

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

RFID technology facilitates processing of product information, making it a promising technology for anti-counterfeiting. However, in large-scale RFID applications, such as supply chain, retail industry, pharmaceutical industry, total tag estimation and tag authentication are two major research issues. Though there are per-tag authentication protocols and probabilistic approaches for total tag estimation in RFID systems, the RFID authentication protocols are mainly per-tag-based where the reader authenticates one tag at each time. For a batch of tags, current RFID systems have to identify them and then authenticate each tag sequentially, one at a time. This increases the protocol execution time due to …


Remarks On A Paper Of Lee And Lim, Gholamhossein Hamedani, Michael Slattery Jan 2014

Remarks On A Paper Of Lee And Lim, Gholamhossein Hamedani, Michael Slattery

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

Lee and Lim (2009) state three characterizations of Loamax, exponential and power function distributions, the proofs of which, are based on the solutions of certain second order non-linear differential equations. For these characterizations, they make the following statement : "Therefore there exists a unique solution of the differential equation that satisfies the given initial conditions". Although the general solution of their first differential equation is easily obtainable, they do not obtain the general solutions of the other two differential equations to ensure their claim via initial conditions. In this very short report, we present the general solutions of these equations …


The Transmuted Marshall-Olkin Fréchet Distribution: Properties And Applications, Ahmed Z. Afify, Gholamhossein Hamedani, Indranil Ghosh, M. E. Mead Jan 2014

The Transmuted Marshall-Olkin Fréchet Distribution: Properties And Applications, Ahmed Z. Afify, Gholamhossein Hamedani, Indranil Ghosh, M. E. Mead

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

This paper introduces a new four-parameter lifetime model, which extends the Marshall-Olkin Fréchet distribution introduced by Krishna et al. (2013), called the transmuted Marshall-Olkin Fréchet distribution. Various structural properties including ordinary and incomplete moments, quantile and generating function, Rényi and q-entropies and order statistics are derived. The maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the model parameters. We illustrate the superiority of the proposed distribution over other existing distributions in the literature in modeling two real life data sets.


Characterizations Of New Modified Weibull Distribution, Gholamhossein Hamedani Jan 2014

Characterizations Of New Modified Weibull Distribution, Gholamhossein Hamedani

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

Several characterizations of a New Modified Weibull distribution, introduced by Doostmoradi et al. (2014), are presented. These characterizations are based on: (i) truncated moment of a function of the random variable; (ii) the hazard function; (iii) a single function of the random variable; (iv) truncated moment of certain function of the 1st order statistic.


Varieties Of P-Restriction Semigroups, Peter R. Jones Jan 2014

Varieties Of P-Restriction Semigroups, Peter R. Jones

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

The restriction semigroups, in both their one-sided and two-sided versions, have arisen in various fashions, meriting study for their own sake. From one historical perspective, as “weakly E-ample” semigroups, the definition revolves around a “designated set” of commuting idempotents, better thought of as projections. This class includes the inverse semigroups in a natural fashion. In a recent paper, the author introduced P-restriction semigroups in order to broaden the notion of “projection” (thereby encompassing the regular *-semigroups). That study is continued here from the varietal perspective introduced for restriction semigroups by V. Gould. The relationship between varieties of regular …


Scalable Collaborative Filtering Recommendation Algorithms On Apache Spark, Walker Evan Casey Jan 2014

Scalable Collaborative Filtering Recommendation Algorithms On Apache Spark, Walker Evan Casey

CMC Senior Theses

Collaborative filtering based recommender systems use information about a user's preferences to make personalized predictions about content, such as topics, people, or products, that they might find relevant. As the volume of accessible information and active users on the Internet continues to grow, it becomes increasingly difficult to compute recommendations quickly and accurately over a large dataset. In this study, we will introduce an algorithmic framework built on top of Apache Spark for parallel computation of the neighborhood-based collaborative filtering problem, which allows the algorithm to scale linearly with a growing number of users. We also investigate several different variants …


Using Intelligent Prefetching To Reduce The Energy Consumption Of A Large-Scale Storage System, Brian Romoser, Ziliang Zong, Ribel Fares, Joal Wood, Rong Ge Dec 2013

Using Intelligent Prefetching To Reduce The Energy Consumption Of A Large-Scale Storage System, Brian Romoser, Ziliang Zong, Ribel Fares, Joal Wood, Rong Ge

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

Many high performance large-scale storage systems will experience significant workload increases as their user base and content availability grow over time. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) center hosts one such system that has recently undergone a period of rapid growth as its user population grew nearly 400% in just about three years. When administrators of these massive storage systems face the challenge of meeting the demands of an ever increasing number of requests, the easiest solution is to integrate more advanced hardware to existing systems. However, additional investment in hardware may significantly increase the …


Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade Dec 2013

Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …


The Log-Beta Generalized Half-Normal Regression Model, Rodrigo R. Pescim, Edwin M. M. Ortega, Gauss M. Cordeiro, Clarice G. B. Demtrio, Gholamhossein Hamedani Dec 2013

The Log-Beta Generalized Half-Normal Regression Model, Rodrigo R. Pescim, Edwin M. M. Ortega, Gauss M. Cordeiro, Clarice G. B. Demtrio, Gholamhossein Hamedani

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

We introduce a log-linear regression model based on the beta generalized half-normal distribution (Pescim et al., 2010). We formulate and develop a log-linear model using a new distribution so-called the log-beta generalized half normal distribution. We derive expansions for the cumulative distribution and density functions which do not depend on complicated functions. We obtain formal expressions for the moments and moment generating function. We characterize the proposed distribution using a simple relationship between two truncated moments. An advantage of the new distribution is that it includes as special sub-models classical distributions reported in the lifetime literature. We also show that …


Road Systems And Betweenness, Paul Bankston Dec 2013

Road Systems And Betweenness, Paul Bankston

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

A road system is a collection of subsets of a set—the roads—such that every singleton subset is a road in the system and every doubleton subset is contained in a road. The induced ternary (betweenness) relation is defined by saying that a point c lies between points a and b if c is an element of every road that contains both a and b . Traditionally, betweenness relations have arisen from a plethora of other structures on a given set, reflecting intuitions that range from the order-theoretic to the geometric and topological. In this paper we initiate a study …


An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams Dec 2013

An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …


Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair Dec 2013

Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …


Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo Dec 2013

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …


Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete Dec 2013

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …


Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya Dec 2013

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …


Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim Dec 2013

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …