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Full-Text Articles in Computer Sciences

Representation Learning For Chemical Activity Predictions, Mohamed S. Ayed Feb 2022

Representation Learning For Chemical Activity Predictions, Mohamed S. Ayed

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Computational prediction of a phenotypic response upon the chemical perturbation on a biological system plays an important role in drug discovery and many other applications. Chemical fingerprints derived from chemical structures are a widely used feature to build machine learning models. However, the fingerprints ignore the biological context, thus, they suffer from several problems such as the activity cliff and curse of dimensionality. Fundamentally, the chemical modulation of biological activities is a multi-scale process. It is the genome-wide chemical-target interactions that modulate chemical phenotypic responses. Thus, the genome-scale chemical-target interaction profile will more directly correlate with in vitro and in …


The Data Analytics And The Science Revolution, Leila Halawi, Amal Clarke, Kelly George Feb 2022

The Data Analytics And The Science Revolution, Leila Halawi, Amal Clarke, Kelly George

Publications

This text highlights the difference between analytics and data science, using predictive analytic techniques to analyze different historical data, including aviation data and concrete data, interpreting the predictive models, and highlighting the steps to deploy the models and the steps ahead. The book combines the conceptual perspective and a hands-on approach to predictive analytics using SAS VIYA, an analytic and data management platform. The authors use SAS VIYA to focus on analytics to solve problems, highlight how analytics is applied in the airline and business environment, and compare several different modeling techniques. They decipher complex algorithms to demonstrate how they …


Assessing Feature Representations For Instance-Based Cross-Domain Anomaly Detection In Cloud Services Univariate Time Series Data, Rahul Agrahari, Matthew Nicholson, Clare Conran, Haythem Assem, John D. Kelleher Jan 2022

Assessing Feature Representations For Instance-Based Cross-Domain Anomaly Detection In Cloud Services Univariate Time Series Data, Rahul Agrahari, Matthew Nicholson, Clare Conran, Haythem Assem, John D. Kelleher

Articles

In this paper, we compare and assess the efficacy of a number of time-series instance feature representations for anomaly detection. To assess whether there are statistically significant differences between different feature representations for anomaly detection in a time series, we calculate and compare confidence intervals on the average performance of different feature sets across a number of different model types and cross-domain time-series datasets. Our results indicate that the catch22 time-series feature set augmented with features based on rolling mean and variance performs best on average, and that the difference in performance between this feature set and the next best …


Application Of Gravity Data For Hydrocarbon Exploration Using Machine Learning Assisted Workflow, Oluwafemi Temidayo Alaofin Jan 2022

Application Of Gravity Data For Hydrocarbon Exploration Using Machine Learning Assisted Workflow, Oluwafemi Temidayo Alaofin

LSU Master's Theses

Gravity survey has played an essential role in many geoscience fields ever since it was conducted, especially as an early screening tool for subsurface hydrocarbon exploration. With continued improvement in data processing techniques and gravity survey accuracy, in-depth gravity anomaly studies, such as characterization of Bouguer and isostatic residual anomalies, have the potential to delineate prolific regional structures and hydrocarbon basins. In this study, we focus on developing a cost-effective, quick, and computationally efficient screening tool for hydrocarbon exploration using gravity data employing machine learning techniques. Since land-based gravity surveys are often expensive and difficult to obtain in remote places, …


On The Horizon: Nanosatellite Constellations Will Revolutionize The Internet Of Things (Iot), Diane Janosek Jan 2022

On The Horizon: Nanosatellite Constellations Will Revolutionize The Internet Of Things (Iot), Diane Janosek

Seattle Journal of Technology, Environmental, & Innovation Law

The Internet of Things has experienced exponential growth and use across the globe with 25.1 billion devices currently in use. Until recently, the functionality of the IoT was dependent on secure data flow between internet terrestrial stations and the IoT devices. Now, a new alternative path of data flow is on the horizon.

IoT device manufacturers are now looking to outer space nanosatellite constellations to connect to a different type of internet. This new internet is no longer terrestrial with fiber cables six feet underground but now looking up, literally, 200 to 300 miles above the earth, to communicate, connect …


Opening A Window To Evolution: David Angelini’S Research On Genetic Adaptation Gets Push From Mcvey Data Science Initiative, Christina Nunez Jan 2022

Opening A Window To Evolution: David Angelini’S Research On Genetic Adaptation Gets Push From Mcvey Data Science Initiative, Christina Nunez

Colby Magazine

Most people think of soapberry bugs as little more than a nuisance, if they think of them at all. Found across much of the southeastern United States, the oblong insect is harmless to humans and likes to hang out on plants native to the soapberry family, hence its straightforward name.


Explainabilityaudit: An Automated Evaluation Of Local Explainability In Rooftop Image Classification, Duleep Rathgamage Don, Jonathan Boardman, Sudhashree Sayenju, Ramazan Aygun, Yifan Zhang, Bill Franks, Sereres Johnston, George Lee, Dan Sullivan, Girish Modgil Jan 2022

Explainabilityaudit: An Automated Evaluation Of Local Explainability In Rooftop Image Classification, Duleep Rathgamage Don, Jonathan Boardman, Sudhashree Sayenju, Ramazan Aygun, Yifan Zhang, Bill Franks, Sereres Johnston, George Lee, Dan Sullivan, Girish Modgil

Published and Grey Literature from PhD Candidates

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is a key concept in building trustworthy machine learning models. Local explainability methods seek to provide explanations for individual predictions. Usually, humans must check these explanations manually. When large numbers of predictions are being made, this approach does not scale. We address this deficiency for a rooftop classification problem specifically with ExplainabilityAudit, a method that automatically evaluates explanations generated by a local explainability toolkit and identifies rooftop images that require further auditing by a human expert. The proposed method utilizes explanations generated by the Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) framework as the most important superpixels of …


Humanizing Computational Literature Analysis Through Art-Based Visualizations, Alexandria Leto Jan 2022

Humanizing Computational Literature Analysis Through Art-Based Visualizations, Alexandria Leto

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Inequalities in gender representation and characterization in fictional works are issues that have long been discussed by social scientists. This work addresses these inequalities with two interrelated components. First, it contributes a sentiment and word frequency analysis task focused on gender-specific nouns and pronouns in 15,000 fictional works taken from the online library, Project Gutenberg. This analysis allows for both quantifying and offering further insight on the nature of this disparity in gender representation. Then, the outcomes of the analysis are harnessed to explore novel data visualization formats using computational and studio art techniques. Our results call attention to the …


Cardiovascular Applications Of Artificial Intelligence In Research, Diagnosis, And Disease Management, Viswanathan Rajagopalan, Houwei Cao Jan 2022

Cardiovascular Applications Of Artificial Intelligence In Research, Diagnosis, And Disease Management, Viswanathan Rajagopalan, Houwei Cao

Center for No Boundary Thinking

Despite significant advancements in diagnosis and disease management, cardiovascular (CV) disorders remain the No. 1 killer both in the United States and across the world, and innovative and transformative technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) are increasingly employed in CV medicine. In this chapter, the authors introduce different AI and machine learning (ML) tools including support vector machine (SVM), gradient boosting machine (GBM), and deep learning models (DL), and their applicability to advance CV diagnosis and disease classification, and risk prediction and patient management. The applications include, but are not limited to, electrocardiogram, imaging, genomics, and drug research in different …


A Predictive Model To Predict Cyberattack Using Self-Normalizing Neural Networks, Oluwapelumi Eniodunmo Jan 2022

A Predictive Model To Predict Cyberattack Using Self-Normalizing Neural Networks, Oluwapelumi Eniodunmo

Theses, Dissertations and Capstones

Cyberattack is a never-ending war that has greatly threatened secured information systems. The development of automated and intelligent systems provides more computing power to hackers to steal information, destroy data or system resources, and has raised global security issues. Statistical and Data mining tools have received continuous research and improvements. These tools have been adopted to create sophisticated intrusion detection systems that help information systems mitigate and defend against cyberattacks. However, the advancement in technology and accessibility of information makes more identifiable elements that can be used to gain unauthorized access to systems and resources. Data mining and classification tools …


The Pandemic’S Effects On The Use Of Personal Listening Devices And Prevalence Of Hearing Damage In College Students, Morgan Fink Jan 2022

The Pandemic’S Effects On The Use Of Personal Listening Devices And Prevalence Of Hearing Damage In College Students, Morgan Fink

Senior Honors Projects

Personal listening devices (PLDs), such as earbuds and headphones, are prevalent in today’s society, and overuse of these devices can cause hearing damage. Since the pandemic caused lockdowns and online classes, college students have presumably had more time to be indoors and to use PLDs, leading to a higher risk or developing hearing damage. Previous studies have explored the PLD use and the prevalence of hearing damage in college students, but this study investigates whether the coronavirus pandemic has affected college students’ PLD listening habits and whether these changes are related to the students’ disclosure of suspected symptoms of hearing …


Estimating Efforts For Various Activities In Agile Software Development: An Empirical Study, Lan Cao Jan 2022

Estimating Efforts For Various Activities In Agile Software Development: An Empirical Study, Lan Cao

Information Technology & Decision Sciences Faculty Publications

Effort estimation is an important practice in agile software development. The agile community believes that developers’ estimates get more accurate over time due to the cumulative effect of learning from short and frequent feedback. However, there is no empirical evidence of an improvement in estimation accuracy over time, nor have prior studies examined effort estimation in different development activities, which are associated with substantial costs. This study fills the knowledge gap in the field of software estimation in agile software development by investigating estimations across time and different development activities based on data collected from a large agile project. This …


Using Neural Networks To Model Guitar Distortion, Caleb Koch, Scott Hawley, Andrew Fyfe Jan 2022

Using Neural Networks To Model Guitar Distortion, Caleb Koch, Scott Hawley, Andrew Fyfe

Science University Research Symposium (SURS)

Guitar players have been modifying their guitar tone with audio effects ever since the mid-20th century. Traditionally, these effects have been achieved by passing a guitar signal through a series of electronic circuits which modify the signal to produce the desired audio effect. With advances in computer technology, audio “plugins” have been created to produce audio effects digitally through programming algorithms. More recently, machine learning researchers have been exploring the use of neural networks to produce audio effects that yield strikingly similar results to their analog counterparts. Recurrent Neural Networks and Temporal Convolutional Networks have proven to be exceptional at …


Towards A Burden-Free Implicit Authentication For Wearable Device Users, Bryan Lee, Sudip Vhaduri Jan 2022

Towards A Burden-Free Implicit Authentication For Wearable Device Users, Bryan Lee, Sudip Vhaduri

Discovery Undergraduate Interdisciplinary Research Internship

The state of current knowledge-based wearable authentication systems requires users to physically interact with a device to initiate and validate their presence, thereby imposing a burden on the user. However, with the recent advancements of sensor technologies in consumer smart wearables (e.g., Fitbit and Apple watches), we were able to utilize vectors of statistical features extracted from the continuous stream of data from these IoT devices to implicitly validate a user's activities and its spatiotemporal context via the use of machine learning techniques. To improve the performance of our models, additional soft biometric data (i.e., respiratory sounds) was collected, and …


Eeg Signals Classification Using Lstm-Based Models And Majority Logic, James A. Orgeron Jan 2022

Eeg Signals Classification Using Lstm-Based Models And Majority Logic, James A. Orgeron

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

The study of elecroencephalograms (EEGs) has gained enormous interest in the last decade with the increase of computational power and availability of EEG signals collected from various human activities or produced during medical tests. The applicability of analyzing EEG signals ranges from helping impaired people communicate or move (using appropriate medical equipment) to understanding people's feelings and detecting diseases.

We proposed new methodology and models for analyzing and classifying EEG signals collected from individuals observing visual stimuli. Our models rely on powerful Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network models, which are currently the state of the art models for performing …


A Study On Developing Novel Methods For Relation Extraction, Darshini Mahendran Jan 2022

A Study On Developing Novel Methods For Relation Extraction, Darshini Mahendran

Theses and Dissertations

Relation Extraction (RE) is a task of Natural Language Processing (NLP) to detect and classify the relations between two entities. Relation extraction in the biomedical and scientific literature domain is challenging as text can contain multiple pairs of entities in the same instance. During the course of this research, we developed an RE framework (RelEx), which consists of five main RE paradigms: rule-based, machine learning-based, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-based, Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT)-based, and Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs)-based approaches. RelEx's rule-based approach uses co-location information of the entities to determine whether a relation exists between a selected entity …


Universal Design In Bci: Deep Learning Approaches For Adaptive Speech Brain-Computer Interfaces, Srdjan Lesaja Jan 2022

Universal Design In Bci: Deep Learning Approaches For Adaptive Speech Brain-Computer Interfaces, Srdjan Lesaja

Theses and Dissertations

In the last two decades, there have been many breakthrough advancements in non-invasive and invasive brain-computer interface (BCI) systems. However, the majority of BCI model designs still follow a paradigm whereby neural signals are preprocessed and task-related features extracted using static, and generally customized, data-independent designs. Such BCI designs commonly optimize narrow task performance over generalizability, adaptability, and robustness, which is not well suited to meeting individual user needs. If one day BCIs are to be capable of decoding our higher-order cognitive commands and conceptual maps, their designs will need to be adaptive architectures that will evolve and grow in …


Towards Exchanging Wearable-Pghd With Ehrs: Developing A Standardized Information Model For Wearable-Based Patient Generated Health Data, Abdullahi Abubakar Kawu, Dympna O'Sullivan, Lucy Hederman Jan 2022

Towards Exchanging Wearable-Pghd With Ehrs: Developing A Standardized Information Model For Wearable-Based Patient Generated Health Data, Abdullahi Abubakar Kawu, Dympna O'Sullivan, Lucy Hederman

Articles

Wearables have become commonplace for tracking and making sense of patient lifestyle, wellbeing and health data. Most of this tracking is done by individuals outside of clinical settings, however some data from wearables may be useful in a clinical context. As such, wearables may be considered a prominent source of Patient Generated Health Data (PGHD). Studies have attempted to maximize the use of the data from wearables including integrating with Electronic Health Records (EHRs). However, usually a limited number of wearables are considered for integration and, in many cases, only one brand is investigated. In addition, we find limited studies …


Image-Data-Driven Deep Learning For Slope Stability Analysis, Behnam Azmoon Jan 2022

Image-Data-Driven Deep Learning For Slope Stability Analysis, Behnam Azmoon

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Landslides cause major infrastructural issues, damage the environment, and cause socio-economic disruptions. Therefore, various slope stability analysis methods have been developed to evaluate the stability of slopes and the probability of their failure. This dissertation attempts to take advantage of the recent advancements in remote sensing and computer technology to implement a deep-learning-based landslide prediction method.

Considering the novelty of this approach, this dissertation leads with proof-of-concept studies to evaluate and establish the suitability of deep learning models for slope stability analysis. To achieve this, a simulated 2D dataset of slope images was created with different geometries and soil properties. …


The Performance Optimization Of Asp Solving Based On Encoding Rewriting And Encoding Selection, Liu Liu Jan 2022

The Performance Optimization Of Asp Solving Based On Encoding Rewriting And Encoding Selection, Liu Liu

Theses and Dissertations--Computer Science

Answer set programming (ASP) has long been used for modeling and solving hard search problems. These problems are modeled in ASP as encodings, a collection of rules that declaratively describe the logic of the problem without explicitly listing how to solve it. It is common that the same problem has several different but equivalent encodings in ASP. Experience shows that the performance of these ASP encodings may vary greatly from instance to instance when processed by current state-of-the-art ASP grounder/solver systems. In particular, it is rarely the case that one encoding outperforms all others. Moreover, running an ASP system on …


Realtime Event Detection In Sports Sensor Data With Machine Learning, Mallory Cashman Jan 2022

Realtime Event Detection In Sports Sensor Data With Machine Learning, Mallory Cashman

Honors Theses and Capstones

Machine learning models can be trained to classify time series based sports motion data, without reliance on assumptions about the capabilities of the users or sensors. This can be applied to predict the count of occurrences of an event in a time period. The experiment for this research uses lacrosse data, collected in partnership with SPAITR - a UNH undergraduate startup developing motion tracking devices for lacrosse. Decision Tree and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models are trained and perform with high success rates. These models improve upon previous work in human motion event detection and can be used a reference …


Comparison Of Caregiver- And Child-Reported Quality Of Life In Children With Sleep-Disordered Breathing, Phoebe Kuo Yu, Kaitlyn Cook, Jiayan Liu, Raouf S. Amin, Craig Derkay, Lisa M. Elden, Susan L. Garetz, Alisha S. George, Sally Ibrahim, Stacey L. Ishman, Erin M. Kirkham, S. Kamal Naqvi, Jerilynn Radcliffe, Kristie R. Ross, Gopi B. Shah, Ignacio E. Tapia, H. Gerry Taylor, David A. Zopf, Susan Redline, Cristina M. Baldassari Jan 2022

Comparison Of Caregiver- And Child-Reported Quality Of Life In Children With Sleep-Disordered Breathing, Phoebe Kuo Yu, Kaitlyn Cook, Jiayan Liu, Raouf S. Amin, Craig Derkay, Lisa M. Elden, Susan L. Garetz, Alisha S. George, Sally Ibrahim, Stacey L. Ishman, Erin M. Kirkham, S. Kamal Naqvi, Jerilynn Radcliffe, Kristie R. Ross, Gopi B. Shah, Ignacio E. Tapia, H. Gerry Taylor, David A. Zopf, Susan Redline, Cristina M. Baldassari

Statistical and Data Sciences: Faculty Publications

Objective. Caregivers frequently report poor quality of life(QOL) in children with sleep-disordered breathing (SDB).Our objective is to assess the correlation between care-giver- and child-reported QOL in children with mild SDBand identify factors associated with differences between caregiver and child report.

Study Design. Analysis of baseline data from a multi-institutional randomized trialSetting. Pediatric Adenotonsillectomy Trial for Snoring, where children with mild SDB (obstructive apnea-hypopnea index\3) were randomized to observation or adenotonsillectomy.

Methods. The Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (Peds QL)assessed baseline global QOL in participating children 5 to12 years old and their caregivers. Caregiver and child scores were compared. Multivariable regression …


A Citizen-Science Approach For Urban Flood Risk Analysis Using Data Science And Machine Learning, Candace Agonafir Jan 2022

A Citizen-Science Approach For Urban Flood Risk Analysis Using Data Science And Machine Learning, Candace Agonafir

Dissertations and Theses

Street flooding is problematic in urban areas, where impervious surfaces, such as concrete, brick, and asphalt prevail, impeding the infiltration of water into the ground. During rain events, water ponds and rise to levels that cause considerable economic damage and physical harm. The main goal of this dissertation is to develop novel approaches toward the comprehension of urban flood risk using data science techniques on crowd-sourced data. This is accomplished by developing a series of data-driven models to identify flood factors of significance and localized areas of flood vulnerability in New York City (NYC). First, the infrastructural (catch basin clogs, …


Advanced Full-Text Search Based On Synonyms In Postgres, Joey Bodoia Jan 2022

Advanced Full-Text Search Based On Synonyms In Postgres, Joey Bodoia

CMC Senior Theses

This paper discusses the advanced full-text search queries based on synonyms that are supported in Chajda, which is a postgres extension and corresponding python library for highly multi-lingual full-text search in postgres. This discussion will include the motivations for using advanced queries based on synonyms, examples of how to use these advanced queries in Chajda, current limitiations of the advanced queries, and performance testing of the advanced queries.


Exploring Cyberterrorism, Topic Models And Social Networks Of Jihadists Dark Web Forums: A Computational Social Science Approach, Vivian Fiona Guetler Jan 2022

Exploring Cyberterrorism, Topic Models And Social Networks Of Jihadists Dark Web Forums: A Computational Social Science Approach, Vivian Fiona Guetler

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This three-article dissertation focuses on cyber-related topics on terrorist groups, specifically Jihadists’ use of technology, the application of natural language processing, and social networks in analyzing text data derived from terrorists' Dark Web forums. The first article explores cybercrime and cyberterrorism. As technology progresses, it facilitates new forms of behavior, including tech-related crimes known as cybercrime and cyberterrorism. In this article, I provide an analysis of the problems of cybercrime and cyberterrorism within the field of criminology by reviewing existing literature focusing on (a) the issues in defining terrorism, cybercrime, and cyberterrorism, (b) ways that cybercriminals commit a crime in …


Application Of Artificial Intelligence For Co2 Storage In Saline Aquifer (Smart Proxy For Snap-Shot In Time), Marwan Mohammed Alnuaimi Jan 2022

Application Of Artificial Intelligence For Co2 Storage In Saline Aquifer (Smart Proxy For Snap-Shot In Time), Marwan Mohammed Alnuaimi

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) technology have grown in popularity. Smart Proxy Models (SPM) are AI/ML based data-driven models which have proven to be quite crucial in petroleum engineering domain with abundant data, or operations in which large surface/ subsurface volume of data is generated. Climate change mitigation is one application of such technology to simulate and monitor CO2 injection into underground formations.

The goal of the SPM developed in this study is to replicate the results (in terms of pressure and saturation outputs) of the numerical reservoir simulation model (CMG) for CO2 injection into …


Interpretable Machine Learning For Self-Service High-Risk Decision Making, Charles Recaido Jan 2022

Interpretable Machine Learning For Self-Service High-Risk Decision Making, Charles Recaido

All Master's Theses

This research contributes to interpretable machine learning via visual knowledge discovery in General Line Coordinates (GLC). The concepts of hyperblocks as interpretable dataset units and GLC are combined to create a visual self-service machine learning model. Two variants of GLC known as Dynamic Scaffold Coordinates (DSC) are proposed. DSC1 and DSC2 can map in a lossless manner multiple dataset attributes to a single two-dimensional (X, Y) Cartesian plane using a dynamic scaffolding graph construction algorithm.

Hyperblock analysis is used to determine visually appealing dataset attribute orders and to reduce line occlusion. It is shown that hyperblocks can generalize decision tree …


Classifying Blood Glucose Levels Through Noninvasive Features, Rishi Reddy Jan 2022

Classifying Blood Glucose Levels Through Noninvasive Features, Rishi Reddy

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

Blood glucose monitoring is a key process in the prevention and management of certain chronic diseases, such as diabetes. Currently, glucose monitoring for those interested in their blood glucose levels are confronted with options that are primarily invasive and relatively costly. A growing topic of note is the development of non-invasive monitoring methods for blood glucose. This development holds a significant promise for improvement to the quality of life of a significant portion of the population and is overall met with great enthusiasm from the scientific community as well as commercial interest. This work aims to develop a potential pipeline …


The Application Of Deep Learning And Cloud Technologies To Data Science, Ian A. Trawinski Jan 2022

The Application Of Deep Learning And Cloud Technologies To Data Science, Ian A. Trawinski

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

Machine Learning and Cloud Computing have become a staple to businesses and educational institutions over the recent years. The two forefronts of big data solutions have garnered technology giants to race for the superior implementation of both Machine Learning and Cloud Computing. The objective of this thesis is to test and utilize AWS SageMaker in three different applications: time-series forecasting with sentiment analysis, automated Machine Learning (AutoML), and finally anomaly detection. The first study covered is a sentiment-based LSTM for stock price prediction. The LSTM was created with two methods, the first being SQL Server Data Tools, and the second …


Exo-Sir: An Epidemiological Model To Analyze The Impact Of Exogenous Spread Of Infection, Nirmal Kumar Sivaraman, Manas Gaur, Shivansh Baijal, Sakthi Balan Muthiah, Amit Sheth Jan 2022

Exo-Sir: An Epidemiological Model To Analyze The Impact Of Exogenous Spread Of Infection, Nirmal Kumar Sivaraman, Manas Gaur, Shivansh Baijal, Sakthi Balan Muthiah, Amit Sheth

Publications

Epidemics like Covid-19 and Ebola have impacted people's lives significantly. The impact of mobility of people across the countries or states in the spread of epidemics has been significant. The spread of disease due to factors local to the population under consideration is termed the endogenous spread. The spread due to external factors like migration, mobility, etc. is called the exogenous spread. In this paper, we introduce the Exo-SIR model, an extension of the popular SIR model and a few variants of the model. The novelty in our model is that it captures both the exogenous and endogenous spread of …