Non-linear Dynamics Commons^™

Information Theory Analysis Of Water Vapor Stable Isotopes From The Sail Campaign, Matthew John Rybecky

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

Understanding the processes that control water vapor isotopic composition in mountain environ- ments is essential for interpreting isotope records and predicting water resource responses to cli- mate change. This thesis applies information theory to continuous, high-resolution water vapor stable isotope measurements from the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) campaign in the East River watershed of Colorado’s Upper Gunnison Basin, spanning the winter- to-spring transition of 2022–2023. The analysis employs Shannon entropy, mutual information, transfer entropy, and joint transfer en- tropy (JTE) to quantify how environmental variables, including surface meteorology, radiation, tur- bulent fluxes, and ERA5 reanalysis products, transfer information …

Cdt-1d Cnn Integration With Simpson-Sobolev Regularization For High-Frequency Options Trading: With Fem-Based Heston Option Pricing, Daniel M. Margolis, Johannes Tausch, Arthur K. Selender

Mathematics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation presents a computational framework for high-frequency options trading that combines Cross-Data-Type 1-D Convolutional Neural Networks (CDT-1D CNN) with Simpson-Sobolev regularization for directional prediction, and finite element methods (FEM) for realistic option pricing during backtesting. The core innovation lies in developing a mathematically rigorous regularization approach that maintains the adaptability of modern deep learning while enabling accurate evaluation through stochastic volatility models. The primary contribution is the Simpson-Sobolev regularization scheme, which extends traditional Sobolev regularization by incorporating Simpson’s rule for numerical integration. This approach achieves higher-order accuracy in approximating the Sobolev norms that control function smoothness. Simpson’s rule attains …

A Professional Development Course On Data-Driven Dynamical Systems At A Primarily Undergraduate Institution: Part A - Scientific Content, Alessandro M. Selvitella, Jeffrey R. Anderson

CODEE Journal

In the age of data-driven decision making, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) remain a powerful and interpretable framework for modeling dynamic processes, especially when integrated with modern tools from statistical learning and data-driven dynamical systems. Yet, general undergraduate and graduate curricula do not typically address key opportunities in data-driven dynamical systems.

This first paper in a series focuses on the mathematical and methodological core of a professional development course first developed in the academic year 2025-2026 at a Primarily Undergraduate Institution, Purdue University Fort Wayne. The curriculum developed in this course emphasized how regression, regularization, and sparse identification can be used …

The Digital Neuron: Neural Cellular Automata For Neural–Symbolic Translation, Nicole Assenza

SMU Data Science Review

A neural cellular automata (NCA) architecture, referred to as Pluto’s NCA, was developed to characterize bilateral communication and semantic reciprocity between symbolic representations and a spatially distributed update field. The architecture employs an encoder–automata–decoder pipeline that maps symbolic inputs into a multichannel state field and reconstructs them through agreement-driven attractor convergence within a stable semantic attractor landscape. System behavior was evaluated under controlled perturbations, including rhythmic desynchronization, graded ablations, correlated and independent noise, and percolation-based structural degradation. Quantities such as Agreement(t), internal coherence Aᵢ(t), the recovery time constant τ, and the critical percolation threshold pc were measured to assess stability, …

Complex Systems Mapping Of Fiscal Growth Dynamics At Strategic Maritime Chokepoints Using Time-Series Slopes, Rahul Balamurugan, Preethi Nanjundan, Avichal Sharma

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

This study examines how maritime and trading states allocate public resources between defence, health, and economic growth around three strategic chokepoints the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Suez Canal. The analysis extends the classic “guns versus butter” framing by treating defence and health spending as co-evolving components of an interconnected fiscal-growth system. Using World Development Indicators data (1999-2024), trend slopes are estimated for military spending (% of GDP), healthcare spending (% of GDP), and GDP growth (annual %). Two derived indicators are computed, a defence-to-health slope ratio (military slope/health slope) and a fiscal-balance proxy (health slope …

Regional Drought Modulation By Enso And Iod As Indicated By The Standardized Precipitation Index, Arpit Tiwari, Preethi Nanjundan, Tanu Sharma, Ravi Ranjan Kumar, Satyaban Bishoyi Ratna

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

Understanding the modulation of drought by large-scale ocean–atmosphere teleconnections is crucial for strengthening drought prediction and resilience in India. This study investigates the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on meteorological drought characteristics across India from 1950 to 2024 using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at a 12-month timescale. Drought events were quantified in terms of frequency, duration, severity, and intensity and linked to ENSO–IOD variability through composite, correlation, and mediation analyses. Results reveal that El Niño events consistently correspond to widespread and severe droughts, particularly over central and southern India, with drought …

Information Theory Analysis Of The Solar Wind Magnetic Structures For Space Weather Prediction, Katherine Holland

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Forecasting space weather at Earth is highly complicated, because of the limited measurements of the dynamic processes in the Sun that span multiple temporal, spatial, and energy-scales. The solar wind is a highly structured, multi-scale, evolving plasma and consists of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), stream interaction regions (SIRs), expanding flux tubes (Borovsky, 2008), and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) discontinuities and fluctuations. The aim of this research is to improve our understanding of the evolution and dissipation of different scale-size solar wind magnetic structures as they move from the Sun-Earth Lagrange point 1 (L1) to Earth's bow shock and, ultimately, to …

Construction And Data-Driven Analysis Of A Stochastic, Individual-Based Opioid Epidemiology Network Model, Leigh Bennett Pearcy, Owen Queen, Vincent Jodoin, Suzanne Lenhart, Christopher Strickland

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

While substance use epidemiology has been an active area of mathematical research in recent years, the social and mental processes that are involved in the development of substance use disorders have presented challenges to advancing the epidemiological theory and how they differ from the contraction of pathogenic disease. Such distinction is especially pertinent in the context of the current United States opioid epidemic and its intersection with the recent COVID-19 pandemic, as both prescription drugs and social influence play major roles in the development of opioid use disorder. In this paper, we construct a stochastic network model capturing how individual …

Coupled Machine Learning Models: Combining Observations And Numerical Analysis In A Physics-Regularized Approach, Austin B. Schmidt

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation investigates surrogate modeling for fixed-location environmental forecasting using novel data-combination techniques. The work surveys the landscape of observational measurements and numerically generated data, identifying similar research and gaps in current methodologies. The ratio-coupled training framework is introduced to combine two data sources per predicted feature through a tunable parameter that weights training signal strength. An optimization scheme is developed to simultaneously tune surrogate weights and the coupled signal ratio, allowing relative influence between signals to act as an explicit regularizer. Three case studies demonstrate the methodology and approach in a variety of contexts. The first study is based …

Grokking Applied To Chaotic Iterates Of The Logistic Map, Felix Donkoh

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates grokking, the delayed transition from memorization to generalization in neural networks trained on deterministic chaotic data. Using an integer–arithmetic discretization of the logistic map, yn+1 =( a yn(p − yn))/ p 2 , bounded aperiodic sequences were generated across control parameters α ranging from 3.0 to 4.0. Transformer-based models displayed characteristic grokking curves. In periodic and chaotic regimes, validation accuracy rose suddenly after long plateaus, while at the Feigenbaum boundary (α ≈ 3.57) generalization failed completely. Increasing data diversity restored learning in chaotic domains, and explicit α–conditioning enabled a single network to generalize across all regimes. A …

A Mathematical Model On The Temporal Dynamics Of Aviation Competitive Pricing, Tichaona Chikore,, Farai Nyabadza,

Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research

This study investigates the competitive dynamics of airport pricing using U.S. airport data to validate the findings. It employs linear and nonlinear ordinary differential equation models to analyze the influence of competitive interactions and internal factors on pricing decisions. The methodology involves parameter estimation via optimization techniques and quantile regression to capture heterogeneity across market segments. Mathematical analysis and simulation results show that if competitive coupling coefficients are low then there is weak competitive influence on pricing, with airports’ pricing largely driven by internal factors. Also, if the adjustment rates exhibit consistency across airports then internal dynamics are dominant in …

Safety And Optimality Monitors For Learning-Enabled Systems Using Conformal Prediction, Jackson Cox

McKelvey School of Engineering Graduate Student Theses & Dissertations

The use of machine learning to create data-driven plant models and controllers has led to an increased need for safety and optimality monitors for model-based systems. System plant models are subject to uncertainty due to learning constraints such as unseen data and overfitting or physical constraints such as unknown dynamics and noise. This uncertainty is detrimental to safety-critical systems and must be properly regulated. To curb this uncertainty, we create prediction sets using the guarantees provided by Conformal Prediction. With a user-specified high probability, these prediction sets contain the true plant system states for an entire prediction horizon, which we …

Leveraging Redundancy As A Link Between Spreading Dynamics On And Of Networks, Felipe Xavier Costa

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

A constant quest in network science has been in the development of methods to identify the most relevant components in a dynamical system solely via the interaction structure amongst its subsystems. This information allows the development of control and intervention strategies in biochemical signaling and epidemic spreading. We highlight the relevant components in heterogeneous dynamical system by their patterns of redundancy, which can connect how dynamics affect network topology and which pathways are necessary to spreading phenomena on networks. In order to measure the redundancies in a large class of empirical systems, we develop the backbone of directed networks methodology, …

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

Utilizing Non-Negative Least Squares For Data-Driven Discovery Of Dynamics, Tracey G. Oellerich

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Critical Transitions In Mental Health: Van Gogh Case Study, Anna Singley

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Deep Hybrid Modeling Of Neuronal Dynamics Using Generative Adversarial Networks, Soheil Saghafi

Dissertations

Mechanistic modeling and machine learning methods are powerful techniques for approximating biological systems and making accurate predictions from data. However, when used in isolation these approaches suffer from distinct shortcomings: model and parameter uncertainty limit mechanistic modeling, whereas machine learning methods disregard the underlying biophysical mechanisms. This dissertation constructs Deep Hybrid Models that address these shortcomings by combining deep learning with mechanistic modeling. In particular, this dissertation uses Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to provide an inverse mapping of data to mechanistic models and identifies the distributions of mechanistic model parameters coherent to the data.

Chapter 1 provides background information on …

Machine Learning-Based Data And Model Driven Bayesian Uncertanity Quantification Of Inverse Problems For Suspended Non-Structural System, Zhiyuan Qin

All Dissertations

Inverse problems involve extracting the internal structure of a physical system from noisy measurement data. In many fields, the Bayesian inference is used to address the ill-conditioned nature of the inverse problem by incorporating prior information through an initial distribution. In the nonparametric Bayesian framework, surrogate models such as Gaussian Processes or Deep Neural Networks are used as flexible and effective probabilistic modeling tools to overcome the high-dimensional curse and reduce computational costs. In practical systems and computer models, uncertainties can be addressed through parameter calibration, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification, leading to improved reliability and robustness of decision and …

Characterizing The Northern Hemisphere Circumpolar Vortex Through Space And Time, Nazla Bushra

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

This hemispheric-scale, steering atmospheric circulation represented by the circumpolar vortices (CPVs) are the middle- and upper-tropospheric wind belts circumnavigating the poles. Variability in the CPV area, shape, and position are important topics in geoenvironmental sciences because of the many links to environmental features. However, a means of characterizing the CPV has remained elusive. The goal of this research is to (i) identify the Northern Hemisphere CPV (NHCPV) and its morphometric characteristics, (ii) understand the daily characteristics of NHCPV area and circularity over time, (iii) identify and analyze spatiotemporal variability in the NHCPV’s centroid, and (iv) analyze how CPV features relate …

Network-Based Analysis Of Early Pandemic Mitigation Strategies: Solutions, And Future Directions, Pegah Hozhabrierdi, Raymond Zhu, Maduakolam Onyewu, Sucheta Soundarajan

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

Despite the large amount of literature on mitigation strategies for pandemic spread, in practice, we are still limited by naive strategies, such as lockdowns, that are not effective in controlling the spread of the disease in long term. One major reason behind adopting basic strategies in real-world settings is that, in the early stages of a pandemic, we lack knowledge of the behavior of a disease, and so cannot tailor a more sophisticated response. In this study, we design different mitigation strategies for early stages of a pandemic and perform a comprehensive analysis among them. We then propose a novel …