Applied Mathematics Commons^™

Stochastic Universal Differential Equations For Epidemiological Modeling: Uncertainty Quantification In Disease Transmission Dynamics, Alice Menaya Armah-Bonney

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Epidemic forecasting requires not only predictions of expected case counts, but also quantification of uncertainty, although existing surrogate modeling frameworks for agent-based models remain fundamentally deterministic. In this thesis a Stochastic Universal Differential Equation framework is presented that extends the deterministic Universal Differential Equation approach by incorporating a learnable stochastic diffusion term, enabling calibrated probabilistic forecasts while preserving the mechanistic interpretability and computational efficiency of the deterministic baseline. In doing so, a two-phase training algorithm is introduced to ensure stable convergence and the framework is validated against the ensemble output from ExaEpi, an exascale agent-based model of a COVID-19 outbreak …

Discrete-Event Simulation: A Leslie System Model For Transportation Demography, Md Zobaer Ahammad

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Transportation systems are influenced by demographic change, household formation,and patterns of vehicle ownership. These factors affect long-run transportation demand and congestion levels within urban infrastructure. Understanding how demographic dynamics interact with transportation behavior is therefore important for analyzing the long-term evolution of transportation systems. This thesis develops a modeling framework that integrates discrete-event simulation with a Leslie-type matrix model to study transportation–demography interactions.Simulation outputs are aggregated to construct a transition matrix describing changes in transportation states. This matrix acts as a linear (or affine) transformation on the transportation state vector, allowing the system to be analyzed as a discrete linear …

A Computational Approach To Periodic Orbits Of State-Dependent Delay Differential Equations, Noah Corbett

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The field of delay differential equations (DDEs) concerns the study of systems whose evolution depends on certain past states of the system. Of particular interest are the state-dependent DDEs, whose delay terms are non-constant and depend on the current state itself. In this thesis, we provide rigorous solution-finding techniques for a certain class of one-dimensional state-dependent DDEs, as well as a state-dependent delayed Van der Pol equation. This technique is inspired by the classical Picard-Lindelof theorem and is successful in proving the existence and uniqueness of orbits in such systems under certain reasonable restrictions. We then employ the Lagrange-Chebyshev interpolating …

The Food Truck: A Multi-Product Newsvendor With Expectile Risk, Sekyiwaah Nuamah

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The Newsvendor Problem is a fundamental model in Operation Research and Supply Chain Management used to determine the optimal order quantity under uncertain demand to minimize expected costs.
This research extends the classical Newsvendor problem to a multi--product setting, addressing the risk of asymmetric cost structures faced by a food truck. This thesis introduces expectile risk measures to quantify and manage uncertainty in demand, moving beyond traditional risk metrics. To evaluate the impact of expectile-based decision-making, we analyze three types of demand distributions--simple, symmetric, and skewed. For skewed distributions, we apply linear spline inverse interpolation to derive expectile values from …

Deep Learning With Kalman Filter, Rexford Julius Quaye

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis presents an extension of the Kalman filter to handle nonlinear and non-Gaussian systems. The standard Kalman filter is optimal under Gaussian assumptions but struggles with more complex noise models. This work introduces a novel loss function based on the Mahalanobis distance, which incorporates the covariance structure of measurement errors, enabling the filter to adapt to non-Gaussian scenarios. The neural network framework is applied to predict the system’s process model, while retaining the classical Kalman measurement update. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through examples of car position and rocket altitude tracking. The results show that the new approach performs …

Stochastic Functional Data-Driven Models For Real-Time Battery Health Forecasting Under Dynamic Operating Conditions, Joshua Owusu

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis provides an effective statistical model to predict the real-time state of lithium-ion batteries for reliable Battery Management Systems (BMS). It highlights battery data (voltage, current, temperature) as smooth functional curves. The principal method demonstrates diminishing trends to health outcomes like State of Health (SoH) and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) by employing Functional Principal Component Analysis (FPCA) and Bayesian Functional Linear Models (FLMs). The primary objective is to figure out how uncertain forecasts are. Simulations demonstrate that the highest accuracy (lowest MSE) is achieved through low noise levels along with large sample sizes. The final system provides a highly …

A Leslie System For A Demographic Simulation: From An Actuarial Point Of View, David Kings

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops a discrete stochastic linear systems interpretation of age–stage demographic evolution grounded in Leslie operators and realized in a discrete-event simulation implemented with salabim. The central claim is that one annual cycle of the simulation constitutes a cone-preserving, stochastic affine transformation on a high- dimensional population state vector indexed by age, sex, marital status, household type, employment, and education, and that the composition of yearly operators yields a random matrix product whose top Lyapunov exponent is the stochastic counterpart of the Perron–Frobenius growth rate (Caswell, 2001; Tuljapurkar, 1997)[1, 2]. The actuarial bridge is constructed by mapping simulated survival …

Grokking Applied To Chaotic Iterates Of The Logistic Map, Felix Donkoh

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates grokking, the delayed transition from memorization to generalization in neural networks trained on deterministic chaotic data. Using an integer–arithmetic discretization of the logistic map, yn+1 =( a yn(p − yn))/ p 2 , bounded aperiodic sequences were generated across control parameters α ranging from 3.0 to 4.0. Transformer-based models displayed characteristic grokking curves. In periodic and chaotic regimes, validation accuracy rose suddenly after long plateaus, while at the Feigenbaum boundary (α ≈ 3.57) generalization failed completely. Increasing data diversity restored learning in chaotic domains, and explicit α–conditioning enabled a single network to generalize across all regimes. A …

An Income Subsystem As A Discrete Stochastic Leslie System: A Simulation-Based Approach, Fahd Nii Okantah Cobblah

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis formulates the household-income engine of an integrated population sim- ulator as a Discrete Stochastic Leslie System (DSLS). The nonnegative state vector nt ∈ Rk + aggregates income, savings, debt, employment, and transfers. (Here, the subscript + denotes the positive cone, i.e., vectors with nonnegative components). Annual evolution is linear in state, stochastic in coefficients: nt+1 = Ttnt + εt, with Tt : Rk + → Rk + cone-preserving. Exogenous macro drivers (inflation, employment, tax, salary inflation, mortgage) are forecast via ARIMA; forecasts multiply entries of Tt, preserving linearity in expectation while introducing realistic temporal correlation. The discrete-event implemented …

Simultaneous Application Of Multiple Process Control Rules, Tran B. Ngo

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Statistical Process Control (SPC) charts are tools used in quality control to monitor and analyze the stability of a process over time. This study evaluates the effectiveness of eight individual Western Electric rules, also known as WECO rules, and the various combinations of these rules with Shewhart rule (or WECO rule 1) to SPC charts. As more rules are added to a process control scheme with Rule 1, there is a trade-off: a higher false out-of-control signal rate but an increase in sensitivity, that is the ability of a specified process control scheme to capture a true out-of-control signal. This …

Car Price Prediction Using Machine Learning: Analyzing The Dvm-Car Dataset, Yaman Abu Ghareebaih

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The objective of this study is to predict car prices using machine learning models and the DVM-CAR dataset, which includes over 1.4 million images and car specifi- cations from 899 car models. Key factors such as mileage, engine power, and year of registration were analyzed for their correlation with car prices. Extensive data cleaning was performed, including filling missing values, identifying outliers, and normalizing numerical variables. Discrete variables like car make and body type were encoded using one-hot encoding. Linear relationships were analyzed with Multiple Logistic Regression, and Random Forest models were used for nonlinear patterns. Model performance was evaluated …

Investigating The Privacy-Utility Trade-O↵ In Synthetic Data Generation Using Correlated Attribute Mode, Kofi Sarfo

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis explores the privacy-utility trade-off in synthetic data generation using the Correlated Attribute Mode of DataSynthesizer, which employs Bayesian networks to model attribute dependencies. It focuses on integrating differential privacy mechanisms, particularly the Laplace mechanism, to inject controlled noise into synthetic data and enhance privacy protection. As organizations face challenges balancing data-driven decision-making with privacy regulations such as the General Data Protection Regulation and the California Consumer Privacy Act, synthetic data offers a solution by creating artificial datasets that preserve statistical properties while balancing data privacy and utility. This research investigates how different differential privacy parameters epsilon affect data …

Studies Of Pathways To T2d And Interventions Through A Dynamical System Model., Rafiqul Islam

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Existing mathematical models investigating the progression of type 2 diabetes (T2D) over time primarily focus on glucose, insulin, β-cell mass, and other related factors, while often omitting fatty acids (FA) as an explicit variable—despite FA being a major energy source for the body. There exists a complex network of dynamical interactions among glucose, insulin, FA, and β-cell mass. To gain deeper insights into the metabolic dynamics and pathophysiology of T2D, it is essential to incorporate FA into such models. In this study, we extend the classic Topp’s GIβ model by explicitly incorporating FA and exploring its interactions with glucose, insulin, …

Diagrams In Involutive Residuated Lattices, Isis A. Gallardo

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

First, we show that every distributive lattice-ordered pregroup can be embedded into a functional algebra over an integral chain, thereby improving the existing Cayley/Holland style embedding theorem. Using this result, we demonstrate that the variety of all dis tributive lattice-ordered pregroups is generated by the functional algebra on the integers. Additionally, we prove that the equational theory of this variety is decidable.

Next, we establish that DLP is equal to the join of its subvarieties LP_n, where 𝑛 ∈ ℤ⁺, consisting of 𝑛-periodic ℓ-pregroups. We also prove that every algebra in LP_n can be embedded …

Effects Of A Protection Zone In A Reaction-Diffusion Model With Shifting Bounded Habitat And Allee Effect., Davis Henderson

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

We consider a reaction-diffusion equation that models a population in a shifting bounded habitat with a protection zone and the Allee effect. We assume that the population growth function exhibits the strong Allee effect and has a positive integral within the protection zone (indicating population persistence) and a negative integral in the surrounding patches (indicating population decay). We prove that the existence of steady-state solutions to this system depends on the length of the protection zone. It is demonstrated that there exists some value H* such that, for a protection zone of size H*, there exists a solution and, for …

Capturing Latent Abilities And Latent Capacities Of Professional Golfers Using Nonlinear Mixed Effects Growth Modeling, Mac Wetherbee

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This study demonstrates an effective and innovative approach to measuring the latent athletic abilities and capacities of professional golfers. I used nonlinear mixed effects growth modeling (e.g., Dynamic Measurement Modeling) to measure professional golfers’ ability levels and capacities for improvement. I accomplished this using a two-stage modeling approach. First, a crossed linear mixed effects model estimated each player’s ability level in each year. In the second stage, I used the results from the first stage to estimate several candidate nonlinear growth trajectories for players’ abilities over time. The quadratic growth trajectory was the best-fitting of these trajectories and was used …

Interpreting Shift Encoders As State Space Models For Stationary Time Series, Patrick Donkoh

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Time series analysis is a statistical technique used to analyze sequential data points collected or recorded over time. While traditional models such as autoregressive models and moving average models have performed sufficiently for time series analysis, the advent of artificial neural networks has provided models that have suggested improved performance. In this research, we provide a custom neural network; a shift encoder that can capture the intricate temporal patterns of time series data. We then compare the sparse matrix of the shift encoder to the parameters of the autoregressive model and observe the similarities. We further explore how we can …

Implementation Of Hierarchical And K-Means Clustering Techniques On The Trend And Seasonality Components Of Temperature Profile Data, Emmanuel Ogedegbe

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

In this study, time series decomposition techniques are used in conjunction with Kmeans clustering and Hierarchical clustering, two well-known clustering algorithms, to climate data. Their implementation and comparisons are then examined. The main objective is to identify similar climate trends and group geographical areas with similar environmental conditions. Climate data from specific places are collected and analyzed as part of the project. The time series is then split into trend, seasonality, and residual components. In order to categorize growing regions according to their climatic inclinations, the deconstructed time series are then submitted to K-means clustering and Hierarchical clustering with dynamic …

Convolution And Autoencoders Applied To Nonlinear Differential Equations, Noah Borquaye

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Autoencoders, a type of artificial neural network, have gained recognition by researchers in various fields, especially machine learning due to their vast applications in data representations from inputs. Recently researchers have explored the possibility to extend the application of autoencoders to solve nonlinear differential equations. Algorithms and methods employed in an autoencoder framework include sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy), dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), Koopman operator theory and singular value decomposition (SVD). These approaches use matrix multiplication to represent linear transformation. However, machine learning algorithms often use convolution to represent linear transformations. In our work, we modify these approaches to …

Effects Of A Protection Zone In A Reaction-Diffusion Model With Strong Allee Effect., Isaac Johnson

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

A protection zone model represents a patchy environment with positive growth over the protection zone and strong Allee effect growth outside the protection zone. Generally, these models are considered through the corresponding eigenvalue problem, but that has certain limitations. In this thesis, a general protection zone model is considered. This model makes no assumption on the direction of the traveling wave solution over the Strong Allee effect patch. We use phase portrait analysis of this protection zone model to draw conclusions about the existence of equilibrium solutions. We establish the existence of three types of equilibrium solutions and the necessary …

Proposing A Measure Of Ethicality For Humans And Ai, Alejandro Jorge Napolitano Jawerbaum

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Smarter people or intelligent machines are able to make more accurate inferences about their environment and other agents more efficiently than less intelligent agents. Formally: ‘Intelligence measures an agent’s ability to achieve goals in a wide range of environments.’ (Legg, 2008)

In this dissertation we extend this definition to include ethical behaviour and we will offer a mathematical formalism and a way to estimate how ethical an action is or will be, both for a human and for a computer, by calculating the expected values of random variables. Formally, we propose the following measure of ethicality, which is computable, or …

Comparison Of The 2022 Monkeypox (Mpox) Outbreak Using Mathematical Modeling And Time Series Clustering, Mark-Daniels Tamakloe

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Monkeypox virus (MPXV) is the causative agent of monkeypox (mpox), a rare viral disease that affects humans [1]. It is primarily found in Africa and is transmitted to humans through contact with sick animals, particularly rodents and monkeys, or through human-to-human transmission [2]. From the beginning of May 2022, cases of mpox have been recorded from non-endemic nations, and the illness has continued to be reported in other endemic nations. Majority of confirmed cases have been recorded in Europe and North America. In this thesis, we compare the spread of the outbreak across the top ten countries using a combination …

Stability Of Cauchy's Equation On Δ+., Holden Wells

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The most famous functional equation f(x+y)=f(x)+f(y) known as Cauchy's equation due to its appearance in the seminal analysis text Cours d'Analyse (Cauchy 1821), was used to understand fundamental aspects of the real numbers and the importance of regularity assumptions in mathematical analysis. Since then, the equation has been abstracted and examined in many contexts. One such examination, introduced by Stanislaw Ulam and furthered by Donald Hyers, was that of stability. Hyers demonstrated that Cauchy's equation exhibited stability over Banach Spaces in the following sense: functions that approximately satisfy Cauchy's equation are approximated with the same level of error by functions …

Modeling, Simulation And Control Of Microrobots For The Microfactory., Zhong Yang

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Future assembly technologies will involve higher levels of automation in order to satisfy increased microscale or nanoscale precision requirements. Traditionally, assembly using a top-down robotic approach has been well-studied and applied to the microelectronics and MEMS industries, but less so in nanotechnology. With the boom of nanotechnology since the 1990s, newly designed products with new materials, coatings, and nanoparticles are gradually entering everyone’s lives, while the industry has grown into a billion-dollar volume worldwide. Traditionally, nanotechnology products are assembled using bottom-up methods, such as self-assembly, rather than top-down robotic assembly. This is due to considerations of volume handling of large …

Mathematical Models Yield Insights Into Cnns: Applications In Natural Image Restoration And Population Genetics, Ryan Cecil

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Due to a rise in computational power, machine learning (ML) methods have become the state-of-the-art in a variety of fields. Known to be black-box approaches, however, these methods are oftentimes not well understood. In this work, we utilize our understanding of model-based approaches to derive insights into Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). In the field of Natural Image Restoration, we focus on the image denoising problem. Recent work have demonstrated the potential of mathematically motivated CNN architectures that learn both `geometric' and nonlinear higher order features and corresponding regularizers. We extend this work by showing that not only can geometric features …

Dimension And Ramsey Results In Partially Ordered Sets., Sida Wan

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

In this dissertation, there are two major parts. One is the dimension results on different classes of partially ordered sets. We developed new tools and theorems to solve the bounds on interval orders using different number of lengths. We also discussed the dimension of interval orders that have a representation with interval lengths in a certain range. We further discussed the interval dimension and semi dimension for posets. In the second part, we discussed several related results on the Ramsey theory of grids, the results involve the application of Product Ramsey Theorem and Partition Ramsey Theorem

Cross-Validation For Autoregressive Models., Christina Han

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

There are no set rules for choosing the lag order for autoregressive (AR) time series models. Currently, the most common methods employ AIC or BIC. However, AIC has been proven to be inconsistent and BIC is inefficient. Racine proposed an estimator based on Shao's work which he hypothesized would also be consistent, but left the proof as an open problem. We will show his claim does not follow immediately from Shao. However, Shao offered another consistent method for cross validation of linear models called APCV, and we will show that AR models satisfy Shao's conditions. Thus, APCV is a consistent …

A New Sir Model With Mobility., Ciana Applegate

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

In this paper, a mobility-based SIR model is built to understand the spread of the pandemic. A traditional SIR model used in epidemiology describes the transition of particles among states, such as susceptible, infected, and recovered states. However, the traditional model has no movement of particles. There are many variations of SIR models when it comes to the factor of mobility, the majority of studies use mobility intensity or population density as a measure of mobility. In this paper, a new dynamical SIR model, including the spatial motion of three-type particles, is constructed and the long-time behavior of the first …

An Application Of Differential Mathematical Modeling Techniques To Study The Ongoing Rabies Epizootic In China, Christopher Turner

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Rabies remains a global public health issue with a wide variety of neurological symptoms such as confusion, slight paralysis, hypersalivation, and hydrophobia. Rabies is usually fatal once symptoms appear. Many species are reservoirs for rabies, such as foxes, racoons, and wild dogs, which in turn can transmit the disease to humans, leading to complex transmission chains. There is a long latent period of rabies, between 1 to 3 months after infection, which further complicates control efforts. Mathematical modeling is a valuable tool in the study of infectious disease outbreaks and there have been many models applied to rabies outbreaks. However, …

Efficient Numerical Optimization For Parallel Dynamic Optimal Power Flow Simulation Using Network Geometry, Rylee Sundermann

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

In this work, we present a parallel method for accelerating the multi-period dynamic optimal power flow (DOPF). Our approach involves a distributed-memory parallelization of DOPF time-steps, use of a newly developed parallel primal-dual interior point method, and an iterative Krylov subspace linear solver with a block-Jacobi preconditioning scheme. The parallel primal-dual interior point method has been implemented and distributed in the open-source PETSc library and is currently available. We present the formulation of the DOPF problem, the developed primal dual interior point method solver, the parallel implementation, and results on various multi-core machines. We demonstrate the effectiveness our proposed block-Jacobi …