Applied Mathematics Commons^™

Finland's Economic Freeze, Shivang Mehta

Claremont-UC Undergraduate Research Conference on the European Union

Abstract

The Eurozone sovereign debt crisis has been well documented and so has Germany’s booming manufacturing economy but these events are relatively easy to explain. Greece’s troubles can easily be traced to its social security structure and lack of land registry while Germany’s success is a result of labour reforms, an undervalued currency and an emphasis on small scale businesses which form the backbone of the economy. A relatively paradoxical case has been that of Finland; ranked second for global innovation by the World Economic Forum and with over $1.8 billion being invested by the government in the country’s tech …

Self-Correcting Kelly Strategies For Skeptical Traders, Aaron C. Brown

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The Kelly criterion gives the appropriate bet size in idealized situations with known parameters. In financial trading situations parameters are generally unknown and the mathematical assumptions underlying the Kelly proof are not met precisely. Moreover a risk manager typically must cooperate with a trader who may be skeptical about both the Kelly criterion specifically and the concept of mathematical optimization of bet size in general.

This presentation tackles the problem of designing a Kelly-based system for setting trade risk management parameters that is both self-correcting (the system delivers good results even if initial parameter are misestimated or parameters change) and …

Development Of Utility Theory And Utility Paradoxes, Timothy E. Dahlstrom

Lawrence University Honors Projects

Since the pioneering work of von Neumann and Morgenstern in 1944 there have been many developments in Expected Utility theory. In order to explain decision making behavior economists have created increasingly broad and complex models of utility theory. This paper seeks to describe various utility models, how they model choices among ambiguous and lottery type situations, and how they respond to the Ellsberg and Allais paradoxes. This paper also attempts to communicate the historical development of utility models and provide a fresh perspective on the development of utility models.

Cobb-Douglas Based Firm Production Model Under Fuzzy Environment And Its Solution Using Geometric Programming, Palash Mandal, Arindam Garai, Tapan K. Roy

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

In this paper, we consider Cobb-Douglas production function based model in a firm under fuzzy environment, and its solution technique by making use of geometric programming. A firm may use many finite inputs such as labour, capital, coal, iron etc. to produce one single output. It is well known that the primary intention of using production function is to determine maximum output for any given combination of inputs. Also, the firm may gain competitive advantages if it can buy and sell in any quantities at exogenously given prices, independent of initial production decisions. On the other hand, in reality, constraints …

Flesch-Kincaid Reading Grade Level Re-Examined: Creating A Uniform Method For Calculating Readability On A Certification Exam, Emily Neuhoff, Kristiana M. Feeser, Kayla Sutherland, Thomas Hovatter

Online Journal for Workforce Education and Development

Abstract

Objective: This study attempted to establish a consistent measurement technique of the readability of a state-wide Certified Nursing Assistant’s (CNA) certification exam. Background: Monitoring the readability level of an exam helps ensure all test versions do not exceed the maximum reading level of the exam, and that knowledge of the subject matter, rather than reading ability, is being assessed. Method: A two part approach was used to specify and evaluate readability. First, two methods (Microsoft Word^® (MSW) software and published readability formulae) were used to calculate Flesch Reading Ease (FRE) and Flesch-Kincaid Reading Grade Level (FKRGL) for multiple …

What Is The True Cost To Stay In The Hospital?, Samantha Alicandro

Honors Projects in Mathematics

Currently, the unfortunate reality that receiving diverse health procedures can be extremely expensive is widely acknowledged and woefully accepted. However, have you inquired or been curious about the specific factors that influence the cost per day expensed by a hospital? Through examination, investigation, and evaluation operating SAS Enterprise Guide, SAS Enterprise Miner and Tableau I have attempted to arrive at a conclusion for this very question. Utilizing a 1.5 million row data set provided by Rhode Island, for the years 2003-2013, I analyzed the assorted elements conceivably bearing impact on the cost per day at a hospital. Regressions, decision trees, …

Catching Card Counters, Sarah French

Honors Projects in Mathematics

The casino industry has been researched through a variety of disciplines including psychological gambling habits, technological advances, business strategies, and mathematical simulations. In the vast number of studies that have been conducted, there are few scholarly articles that focus on the specific aspect of card counting. The majority of games in the casino are designed to favor the “house”. This study focuses on the game of blackjack, in which players using a card counting strategy can tip the odds in their favor. A computer simulation was used to model the betting strategy of a card counter who would bet methodically. …

A Logistic Regression And Markov Chain Model For The Prediction Of Nation-State Violent Conflicts And Transitions, Nicholas Shallcross

Theses and Dissertations

Using open source data, this research formulates and constructs a suite of statistical models that predict future transitions into and out of violent conflict and forecasts the regional and global incidences of violent conflict over a ten-year time horizon. A total of thirty predictor variables are tested and evaluated for inclusion in twelve conditional logistic regression models, which calculate the probability that a nation will transition from its current conflict state, either In Conflict or Not in Conflict, to a new state in the following year. These probabilities are then used to construct a series of nation-specific Markov chain models …

How Much Should You Pay For A Financial Derivative?, Boyan Kostadinov

Publications and Research

We explain some key mathematical ideas behind the no-arbitrage pricing of financial derivatives by replication, starting from a simple coin toss model and ending with the continuous-time limit of a multi-step coin-toss model using a geometric random walk model. In the limit, we obtain the classical Black-Scholes-Merton formula for pricing European call and put options.

Hpcnmf: A High-Performance Toolbox For Non-Negative Matrix Factorization, Karthik Devarajan, Guoli Wang

COBRA Preprint Series

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a widely used machine learning algorithm for dimension reduction of large-scale data. It has found successful applications in a variety of fields such as computational biology, neuroscience, natural language processing, information retrieval, image processing and speech recognition. In bioinformatics, for example, it has been used to extract patterns and profiles from genomic and text-mining data as well as in protein sequence and structure analysis. While the scientific performance of NMF is very promising in dealing with high dimensional data sets and complex data structures, its computational cost is high and sometimes could be critical for …

Topic Analysis Of Tweets On The European Refugee Crisis Using Non-Negative Matrix Factorization, Chong Shen

CMC Senior Theses

The ongoing European Refugee Crisis has been one of the most popular trending topics on Twitter for the past 8 months. This paper applies topic modeling on bulks of tweets to discover the hidden patterns within these social media discussions. In particular, we perform topic analysis through solving Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) as an Inexact Alternating Least Squares problem. We accelerate the computation using techniques including tweet sampling and augmented NMF, compare NMF results with different ranks and visualize the outputs through topic representation and frequency plots. We observe that supportive sentiments maintained a strong presence while negative sentiments such …

An Elliptic Exploration, David Curtis Swart

Online Theses and Dissertations

In this paper I will be giving an introduction to an interesting kind of equation called elliptic curves, and how they can be used to protect our national security through Cryptology. We will explore the unique operation for adding points on elliptic curves and the group structure that it creates, as well as the ECC method, which stands among the RSA and AES methods as one of the modern day's most secure systems of cryptography. In addition, I will also introduce several algorithms and methods that are useful for working with ECC such as Schoof's Algorithm, and I will also …

The Mathematics Of Scientific Research: Scientometrics, Citation Metrics, And Impact Factors, Clayton Hayes

Library Scholarly Publications

This talk will consist of an introduction to the rationale behind the establishment of the field of Scientometrics, which attempts to measure and analyze the body of research done in the sciences. This is primarily through analyzing the connections between scientific journals, articles, and authors. I will cover the foundational works of Price and Garfield in the fields of citation networks and impact factor, respectively, and will give some historical context for these developments. I will also speak briefly on more recent developments in these areas, such as the Eigenfactor, author citation metrics, and (time permitting) alternative metrics.

Audience: …

The Neural Dynamics Of Somatosensory Processing And Adaptation Across Childhood: A High-Density Electrical Mapping Study, Neha Uppal, John J. Foxe, John Butler, Frantzy Acluche, Sophie Molholm

Articles

Young children are often hyperreactive to somatosensory inputs hardly noticed by adults, as exemplified by irritation to seams or labels in clothing. The neurodevelopmental mechanisms underlying changes in sensory reactivity are not well understood. Based on the idea that neurodevelopmental changes in somatosensory processing and/or changes in sensory adaptation might underlie developmental differences in somatosensory reactivity, high-density electroencephalography was used to examine how the nervous system responds and adapts to repeated vibrotactile stimulation over childhood. Participants aged 6–18 yr old were presented with 50-ms vibrotactile stimuli to the right wrist over the median nerve at 5 blocked interstimulus intervals (ranging …

Price Signaling In A Two-Market Duopoly, Matthew Hughes

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

Within any industry, firms typically produce related products over multiple subsequent periods in an attempt to build consumer loyalty and achieve continued sales. Apple releases new iPhones and car companies produce new models every year, relying on consumers believing each new product is of high quality. Firms rely on the spillover effects from previous markets, where firms are able to more easily demonstrate their product's quality to the consumers before purchase. The goal is to find a range of prices which allows the high quality firm to distinguish its type to consumers via the price pH and if spillover effects …

Simulating And Animating The Spatial Dynamics Of Interacting Species Living On A Torus, Boyan Kostadinov

Publications and Research

The goal of this talk is to present a student research project in computational population biology, which aims at creating a computer simulation and animation of the spatial dynamics of interactions between two kinds of species living on a torus-shaped universe. The habitat for spatial interactions is modeled by a 2D lattice with periodic boundary conditions, which wrap the rectangular grid into a torus. The spatial interactions between the species have two components: 1. Population dynamics modeled by the classical Nicholson-Bailey two-parameter family of models for coupled interactions between species, extended to incorporate space and 2. Two-parameter migration dynamics, modeled …

How Does “Collaboration” Occur At All? Remarks On Epistemological Issues Related To Understanding / Working With ‘The Other’, Don Faust, Judith Puncochar

Conference Presentations

Collaboration, if to occur successfully at all, needs to be based on careful representation and communication of each stakeholder’s knowledge. In this paper, we investigate, from a foundational logical and epistemological point of view, how such representation and communication can be accomplished. What we tentatively conclude, based on a careful delineation of the logical technicalities necessarily involved in such representation and communication, is that a complete representation is not possible. This inference, if correct, is of course rather discouraging with regard to what we can hope to achieve in the knowledge representations that we bring to our collaborations. We suggest …

Interdisciplinary Modeling For Water-Related Issues Graduate Course, Laurel Saito, Alexander Fernald, Timothy Link

All ECSTATIC Materials

The science and management of aquatic ecosystems is inherently interdisciplinary, with issues associated with hydrology, atmospheric science, water quality, geochemistry, sociology, economics, environmental science, and ecology. Addressing water resources issues in any one discipline invariably involves effects that concern other disciplines, and attempts to address one issue often have consequences that exacerbate existing issues or concerns, or create new ones (Jørgensen et al. 1992; Lackey et al. 1975; Straskraba 1994) due to the strongly interactive nature of key processes (Christensen et al. 1996). Thus, research and management of aquatic ecosystems must be interdisciplinary to be most effective, but such truly …

Mathematical Models Of Games Of Chance: Epistemological Taxonomy And Potential In Problem-Gambling Research, Catalin Barboianu

UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal

Games of chance are developed in their physical consumer-ready form on the basis of mathematical models, which stand as the premises of their existence and represent their physical processes. There is a prevalence of statistical and probabilistic models in the interest of all parties involved in the study of gambling – researchers, game producers and operators, and players – while functional models are of interest more to math-inclined players than problem-gambling researchers. In this paper I present a structural analysis of the knowledge attached to mathematical models of games of chance and the act of mathematical modeling, arguing that such …

The Implications Of Self-Driving Cars On Insurance, Amanda Lobello

Honors Projects in Mathematics

Self-driving cars, also known as autonomous vehicles, are being researched and tested by automakers, technology industry leaders, and other institutions. Lawmakers and politicians are discussing the legislation that will affect the fate of such technology. Primary benefits include safety, mobility, free time, less traffic, and green effects. However, there are also obstacles to the implementation of self-driving vehicles including consumer acceptance, legal liability, and cost. With the potential shift in responsibility from driver to automaker, rating factors for insurance may change, weighing more heavily on the model of the car as a factor. The fate of auto insurance is in …

Mathematics In Forensic Firearm Examination, Erin N. Zalewski

Renée Crown University Honors Thesis Projects - All

Forensic Science encompasses many disciplines that employ the scientific method to examine, analyze, and interpret physical evidence in the courtroom. The discipline of Forensic Firearm Examination involves the examination and comparison of ballistic evidence components to determine if they came from the same source. In other words, firearm examiners are tasked with determining whether spent cartridge cases or bullets were fired through the same gun. Examination of ballistic evidence can involve the employment of automated matching systems, comparison microscopy, and mathematical analysis. The comparison microscope is the tool of the firearm examiner and allows for the simultaneous view of ballistic …

Situational Assessment Using Graph Comparison, Pavan Kumar Pallapunidi

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

In strategic operations, the assessment of any given situation is very important and may trigger the development of a mission plan. The mission plan consists of various actions that should be executed in order to successfully mitigate the situation. For a new mission plan to be designed or implemented, the effect of the previous mission plan should be accessed. These mission plans use various sensors to collect the data which can be very large and aggregate them to obtain detailed information of the situation. In order to implement an effective mission plan the current situation has to be assessed effectively. …

An Experimental Analysis Of Adaptive Learning In A Multi-Subject Economy, David Martin

Business and Economics Honors Papers

The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) has long served as a foundation in macroeconomic laws of motion. However, the assumptions of REH are likely too powerful to be representative of economic actors. This research evaluates adaptive learning, a developing alternative to rational expectations, using a multi-agent macroeconomic prediction “game.” Data was gathered from a group of students, each predicting the outcome of a single economy over time. Each agent was asked to forecast output (GDP) and inflation in each period based on historic levels of output, inflation, and interest rates. These data were then analyzed under various theoretical models of adaptive …

Helping A Microfinance Institution Select Its Clients: A Risk Analysis Using Social Networks, Sayantan Mitra, Varunavi Newar

Black & Gold

This paper formulates an objective mathematical model for a Microfinance Institution (MFI) to measure the credit worthiness associated with a potential client. We use concepts from network theory to determine the credit worthiness of an individual in relation to other households in the community. We use the concept of eigenvector centrality to evaluate the relative credit worthiness in the network. The latter part of the model focuses on the absolute measures of credit worthiness such as income, ownership of assets and risk of the proposed investment. This model would help MFIs reduce the risk of borrowing by ensuring that there …

Best Practice Recommendations For Data Screening, Justin A. Desimone, Peter D. Harms, Alice J. Desimone

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

Survey respondents differ in their levels of attention and effort when responding to items. There are a number of methods researchers may use to identify respondents who fail to exert sufficient effort in order to increase the rigor of analysis and enhance the trustworthiness of study results. Screening techniques are organized into three general categories, which differ in impact on survey design and potential respondent awareness. Assumptions and considerations regarding appropriate use of screening techniques are discussed along with descriptions of each technique. The utility of each screening technique is a function of survey design and administration. Each technique has …

Correlation Between Inflation Rates And Currency Values, Valeria Rohde

A with Honors Projects

Using scatter diagrams, linear correlation coefficient, r, and determining whether a linear correlation exists between the two sets of quantitative data, the author investigates whether inflation rates and currency values in Brazil, India, South Africa, Russia, and China are related. Concludes that there is no strong mathematical evidence to support a relationship.

An Exposition And Calibration Of The Ho-Lee Model Of Interest Rates, Benjamin I. Lawson

CMC Senior Theses

The purpose of this paper is to create an easily understandable version of the Ho-Lee interest rate model. The first part analyzes the model in detail, and the second part calibrates it to demonstrate how it can be applied to real market data.

Α-Discounting Method For Multi-Criteria Decision Making (Α-D Mcdm), Florentin Smarandache

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

In this book we introduce a new procedure called αDiscounting Method for Multi-Criteria Decision Making (α-D MCDM), which is as an alternative and extension of Saaty’s Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). It works for any number of preferences that can be transformed into a system of homogeneous linear equations. A degree of consistency (and implicitly a degree of inconsistency) of a decision-making problem are defined. α-D MCDM is afterwards generalized to a set of preferences that can be transformed into a system of linear and/or non-linear homogeneous and/or nonhomogeneous equations and/or inequalities. Many consistent, weak inconsistent, and strong inconsistent examples are …

Estimating Cost Adjustments Required To Accomplish Target Savings In Chronic Disease Management Interventions: A Simulation Study, Rafael Diaz, Joshua G. Behr, Bruce S. Britton

VMASC Publications

Chronic diseases are persistent ailments that are not preventable or curable with medication or vaccination. Many of the leading chronic conditions in industrialized societies may be related to lifestyle choices. The prevalence of these chronic conditions significantly affects the health, suffering, and longevity of patients. This paper demonstrates the utility of system dynamics as an approach to model and simulate the behavior of key cost factors in the implementation of population health management interventions. The study uses modeling and simulation as an evaluative method to identify potential savings stemming from an intervention within a well-defined population group. The model is …

An Optimal Harvesting Strategy Of A Three Species Syn-Ecosystem With Commensalism And Stochasticity, M. N. Srinivas, A. Sabarmathi, K. S. Reddy, M. A. S. Srinivas

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

In this paper we have studied the stability of three typical species syn-ecosystem. The system comprises of one commensal S₁ and two hosts S₂ and S₃ . Both S₂ and S₂ benefit S₁ without getting themselves affected either positively or adversely. Further S₂ is a commensal of S₃ and S₃ is a host of both S₁ and S₂. Limited resources have been considered for all the three species in this case. The model equations of the system constitute a set of three first order non-linear ordinary differential equations. …