Applied Mathematics Commons^™

Optimizing Radiology Peer Review: A Mathematical Model For Selecting Future Cases Based On Prior Errors, Yun Robert Sheu, Elie Feder, Igor Balsim, Victor F. Levin, Andrew G. Bleicher, Barton F. Branstetter Iv

Publications and Research

Introduction: Peer review is an essential process for physicians because it facilitates improved quality of patient care and continuing physician learning and improvement. However, peer review often is not well received by radiologists, who note that it is time intensive, subjective, and lacks demonstrable impact on patient care. Current advances in peer review include the RADPEER system with its standardization of discrepancies and incorporation of the peer review process into the PACS itself. Our purpose was to build on RADPEER and similar systems by using a mathematical model to optimally select the types of cases to be reviewed, for each …

Modeling And Analysis Of The Spread Of Japanese Encephalitis With Environmental Effects, Ram Naresh, Surabhi Pandey

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

A nonlinear mathematical model for the spread of Japanese Encephalitis, caused by infected mosquito feeding on susceptible human population incorporating demographic and environmental factors is proposed and analyzed. In the modeling process, it is assumed that the growth rates of reservoir animal population and vector mosquito population are enhanced due to environmental discharges caused by human population related factors. The model is analyzed by stability theory of differential equations and computer simulation. Both the disease-free and the endemic equilibria are found and their stability is investigated. It is found that whenever the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, the endemic …

Nonlinear Dynamics Of Infant Sitting Postural Control, Joan E. Deffeyes

Department of Psychology: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Sitting is one of the first developmental milestones that an infant achieves. Thus measurements of sitting posture present an opportunity to assess sensorimotor development at a young age, in order to identify infants who might benefit from therapeutic intervention, and to monitor the efficacy of the intervention. Sitting postural sway data was collected using a force plate from infants with typical development, and from infants with delayed development, where the delay in development was due to cerebral palsy in most of the infants in the study. The center of pressure time series from the infant sitting was subjected to a …

Mathematical Aids Epidemic Model: Preferential Anti-Retroviral Therapy Distribution In Resource Constrained Countries, Nadia Abuelezam

HMC Senior Theses

HIV/AIDS is one of the largest health problems the world is currently facing. Even with anti-retroviral therapies (ART), many resource-constrained countries are unable to meet the treatment needs of their infected populations. ART-distribution methods need to be created that prevent the largest number of future HIV infections. We have developed a compartment model that tracks the spread of HIV in multiple two-sex populations over time in the presence of limited treatment. The model has been fit to represent the HIV epidemic in rural and urban areas in Uganda. With the model we examine the spread of HIV among urban and …

When To Spray: A Time-Scale Calculus Approach To Controlling The Impact Of West Nile Virus, Diana Thomas, Marion Weedermann, Lora Billings, Joan Hoffacker, Robert Washington-Allen

Department of Mathematics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

West Nile Virus (WNV) made its initial appearance in the New York City (NYC) metropolitan area in 1999 and was implicated in cases of human encephalitis and the extensive mortality in crows (Corvus sp.) and other avian species. Mosquitoes were found to be the primary vectors and NYC’s current policy on control strategies involved an eradication program that depends on the synchronicity of the summer mosquito population’s increases with the occurrence of cases in humans. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether this is the most effective control strategy because past mathematical models assumed discrete behavior that …

Radiotherapy Optimal Design: An Academic Radiotherapy Treatment Design System, R Acosta, W Brick, A Hanna, Allen Holder, D Lara, G Mcquillen, D Nevin, P Uhlig, B Salter

Mathematical Sciences Technical Reports (MSTR)

Optimally designing radiotherapy and radiosurgery treatments to increase the likelihood of a successful recovery from cancer is an important application of operations research. Researchers have been hindered by the lack of academic software that supports head-to-head comparisons of different techniques, and this article addresses the inherent difficulties of designing and implementing an academic treatment planning system. In particular, this article details the algorithms and the software design of Radiotherapy optimAl Design (RAD).

Models Of Phototransduction In Rod Photoreceptors, Harihar Khanal, Vasilios Alexiades

Publications

Phototransduction is the process by which photons of light generate an electrical response in retinal rod and cone photoreceptors, thereby initiating vision. We compare the electrical response in salamander rods from increasingly more (spacialy) detailed models of phototransduction: 0-dimensional (bulk), 1-dimensional (longitudinal), 2-dimensional (axisymmetric), and 3-dimensional (with incisures). We discuss issues of finding physical parameters for simulation and validation of models, and also present some computational experiments for rods with geometry of mouse and human photoreceptors.

Global Stability Results Of An Sis Age-Structured Epidemic Model With Vertical Transmission, M. El-Doma

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

An SIS age-structured epidemic model for a vertically as well as horizontally transmitted disease is investigated when the fertility, mortality and cure rates depend on age and the force of infection of proportionate mixing assumption type. We determine the steady states and prove the global stability for the endemic equilibriums.

An Epidemiological Model Of Rift Valley Fever, Holly D. Gaff, David M. Hartley, Nicole P. Leahy

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

We present and explore a novel mathematical model of the epidemiology of Rift Valley Fever (RVF). RVF is an Old World, mosquito-borne disease affecting both livestock and humans. The model is an ordinary differential equation model for two populations of mosquito species, those that can transmit vertically and those that cannot, and for one livestock population. We analyze the model to find the stability of the disease-free equlibrium and test which model parameters affect this stability most significantly. This model is the basis for future research into the predication of future outbreaks in the Old World and the assessment of …

Multiphoton Response Of Retinal Rod Photoreceptors, Vasilios Alexiades, Harihar Khanal

Publications

Phototransduction is the process by which light is converted into an electrical response in retinal photoreceptors. Rod photoreceptors contain a stack of (about 1000) disc membranes packed with photopigment rhodopsin molecules, which absorb the photons. We present computational experiments which show the profound effect on the response of the distances (how many discs apart) photons happen to be absorbed at. This photon-distribution effect alone can account for much of the observed variability in response.

Stability Analysis For An Seir Age-Structured Epidemic Model Under Vaccination, M. El-Doma

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

An SEIR age-structured epidemic model is investigated when susceptible and immune individuals are vaccinated indiscriminately and the force of infection of proportionate mixing type. We determine the steady states and obtain an explicitly computable threshold condition, and then study the stability of the steady states.

Global Stability Results And Well Posedness Of An Si Age-Structured Epidemic Model With Vertical Transmission, M. El-Doma

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

An SI age-structured epidemic model for a vertically as well as horizontally transmitted disease is investigated when the fertility and mortality rates depend on age and the force of infection of proportionate mixing assumption type. We prove the well posedness of the model as well as the global stability for endemic equilibriums.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis Of Areal Data And Discovery Of Neighborhood Relationships In Conditionally Autoregressive Models, Subharup Guha, Louise Ryan

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

No abstract provided.

A Stochastic Model For Psa Levels: Behavior Of Solutions And Population Statistics, Pavel Bělík, P W A Dayananda, John T. Kemper, Mikhail M. Shvartsman

Faculty Authored Articles

This paper investigates the partial differential equation for the evolving distribution of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels following radiotherapy. We also present results on the behavior of moments for the evolving distribution of PSA levels and estimate the probability of long-term treatment success and failure related to values of treatment and disease parameters. Results apply to a much wider range of parameter values than was considered in earlier studies, including parameter combinations that are patient specific.

Analysis Of An Sirs Age-Structured Epidemic Model With Vaccination And Vertical Transmission Of Disease, Mohammed El-Doma

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

An SIRS age-structured epidemic model for a vertically as well as horizontally transmitted disease under vaccination is investigated when the fertility, mortality and removal rates depend on age and the force of infection of proportionate mixing assumption type, and vaccination wanes over time. We prove the existence and uniqueness of solution to the model equations, and show that solutions of the model equations depend continuously on the initial age-distributions. Furthermore, we determine the steady states and obtain an explicitly computable threshold condition, in terms of the demographic and epidemiological parameters of the model; we then study the stability of the …

Optimal Therapy Regimens For Treatment-Resistant Mutations Of Hiv, Weiqing Gu, Helen Moore

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

In this paper, we use control theory to determine optimal treatment regimens for HIV patients, taking into account treatment-resistant mutations of the virus. We perform optimal control analysis on a model developed previously for the dynamics of HIV with strains of various resistance to treatment (Moore and Gu, 2005). This model incorporates three types of resistance to treatments: strains that are not responsive to protease inhibitors, strains not responsive to reverse transcriptase inhibitors, and strains not responsive to either of these treatments. We solve for the optimal treatment regimens analytically and numerically. We find parameter regimes for which optimal dosing …

Chaotic Desynchronization Of Multistrain Diseases, Ira Schwartz, Leah Shaw, Derek Cummings, Lora Billings, Marie Mccrary, Donald Burke

Department of Mathematics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Multistrain diseases are diseases that consist of several strains, or serotypes. The serotypes may interact by antibody-dependent enhancement rADE, in which infection with a single serotype is asymptomatic, but infection with a second serotype leads to serious illness accompanied by greater infectivity. It has been observed from serotype data of dengue hemorrhagic fever that outbreaks of the four serotypes occur asynchronously. Both autonomous and seasonally driven outbreaks were studied in a model containing ADE. For sufficiently small ADE, the number of infectives of each serotype synchronizes, with outbreaks occurring in phase. When the ADE increases past a threshold, the system …

Gauss-Seidel Estimation Of Generalized Linear Mixed Models With Application To Poisson Modeling Of Spatially Varying Disease Rates, Subharup Guha, Louise Ryan

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) provide an elegant framework for the analysis of correlated data. Due to the non-closed form of the likelihood, GLMMs are often fit by computational procedures like penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL). Special cases of these models are generalized linear models (GLMs), which are often fit using algorithms like iterative weighted least squares (IWLS). High computational costs and memory space constraints often make it difficult to apply these iterative procedures to data sets with very large number of cases.

This paper proposes a computationally efficient strategy based on the Gauss-Seidel algorithm that iteratively fits sub-models of the GLMM …

Computational Techniques For Spatial Logistic Regression With Large Datasets, Christopher J. Paciorek, Louise Ryan

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In epidemiological work, outcomes are frequently non-normal, sample sizes may be large, and effects are often small. To relate health outcomes to geographic risk factors, fast and powerful methods for fitting spatial models, particularly for non-normal data, are required. We focus on binary outcomes, with the risk surface a smooth function of space. We compare penalized likelihood models, including the penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL) approach, and Bayesian models based on fit, speed, and ease of implementation.

A Bayesian model using a spectral basis representation of the spatial surface provides the best tradeoff of sensitivity and specificity in simulations, detecting real spatial …

A Mathematical Model For Treatment-Resistant Mutations Of Hiv, Helen Moore, Weiqing Gu

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

In this paper, we propose and analyze a mathematical model, in the form of a system of ordinary differential equations, governing mutated strains of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and their interactions with the immune system and treatments. Our model incorporates two types of resistant mutations: strains that are not responsive to protease inhibitors, and strains that are not responsive to reverse transcriptase inhibitors. It also includes strains that do not have either of these two types of resistance (wild-type virus) and strains that have both types. We perform our analysis by changing the system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to …

A Hybrid Newton-Type Method For The Linear Regression In Case-Cohort Studies, Menggang Yu, Bin Nan

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Case-cohort designs are increasingly commonly used in large epidemiological cohort studies. Nan, Yu, and Kalbeisch (2004) provided the asymptotic results for censored linear regression models in case-cohort studies. In this article, we consider computational aspects of their proposed rank based estimating methods. We show that the rank based discontinuous estimating functions for case-cohort studies are monotone, a property established for cohort data in the literature, when generalized Gehan type of weights are used. Though the estimating problem can be formulated to a linear programming problem as that for cohort data, due to its easily uncontrollable large scale even for a …

Data Adaptive Estimation Of The Treatment Specific Mean, Yue Wang, Oliver Bembom, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

An important problem in epidemiology and medical research is the estimation of the causal effect of a treatment action at a single point in time on the mean of an outcome, possibly within strata of the target population defined by a subset of the baseline covariates. Current approaches to this problem are based on marginal structural models, i.e., parametric models for the marginal distribution of counterfactural outcomes as a function of treatment and effect modifiers. The various estimators developed in this context furthermore each depend on a high-dimensional nuisance parameter whose estimation currently also relies on parametric models. Since misspecification …

History-Adjusted Marginal Structural Models And Statically-Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Maya L. Petersen

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Marginal structural models (MSM) provide a powerful tool for estimating the causal effect of a treatment. These models, introduced by Robins, model the marginal distributions of treatment-specific counterfactual outcomes, possibly conditional on a subset of the baseline covariates. Marginal structural models are particularly useful in the context of longitudinal data structures, in which each subject's treatment and covariate history are measured over time, and an outcome is recorded at a final time point. However, the utility of these models for some applications has been limited by their inability to incorporate modification of the causal effect of treatment by time-varying covariates. …

Studying Effects Of Primary Care Physicians And Patients On The Trade-Off Between Charges For Primary Care And Specialty Care Using A Hierarchical Multivariate Two-Part Model, John W. Robinson, Scott L. Zeger, Christopher B. Forrest

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

Objective. To examine effects of primary care physicians (PCPs) and patients on the association between charges for primary care and specialty care in a point-of-service (POS) health plan.

Data Source. Claims from 1996 for 3,308 adult male POS plan members, each of whom was assigned to one of the 50 family practitioner-PCPs with the largest POS plan member-loads.

Study Design. A hierarchical multivariate two-part model was fitted using a Gibbs sampler to estimate PCPs' effects on patients' annual charges for two types of services, primary care and specialty care, the associations among PCPs' effects, and within-patient associations between charges for …

A Hierarchical Multivariate Two-Part Model For Profiling Providers' Effects On Healthcare Charges, John W. Robinson, Scott L. Zeger, Christopher B. Forrest

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

Procedures for analyzing and comparing healthcare providers' effects on health services delivery and outcomes have been referred to as provider profiling. In a typical profiling procedure, patient-level responses are measured for clusters of patients treated by providers that in turn, can be regarded as statistically exchangeable. Thus, a hierarchical model naturally represents the structure of the data. When provider effects on multiple responses are profiled, a multivariate model rather than a series of univariate models, can capture associations among responses at both the provider and patient levels. When responses are in the form of charges for healthcare services and sampled …

Non-Parametric Estimation Of Roc Curves In The Absence Of A Gold Standard, Xiao-Hua Zhou, Pete Castelluccio, Chuan Zhou

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In evaluation of diagnostic accuracy of tests, a gold standard on the disease status is required. However, in many complex diseases, it is impossible or unethical to obtain such the gold standard. If an imperfect standard is used as if it were a gold standard, the estimated accuracy of the tests would be biased. This type of bias is called imperfect gold standard bias. In this paper we develop a maximum likelihood (ML) method for estimating ROC curves and their areas of ordinal-scale tests in the absence of a gold standard. Our simulation study shows the proposed estimates for the …

Incorporating Death Into Health-Related Variables In Longitudinal Studies, Paula Diehr, Laura Lee Johnson, Donald L. Patrick, Bruce Psaty

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Background: The aging process can be described as the change in health-related variables over time. Unfortunately, simple graphs of available data may be misleading if some people die, since they may confuse patterns of mortality with patterns of change in health. Methods have been proposed to incorporate death into self-rated health (excellent to poor) and the SF-36 profile scores, but not for other variables.

Objectives: (1) To incorporate death into the following variables: ADLs, IADLs, mini-mental state examination, depressive symptoms, body mass index (BMI), blocks walked per week, bed days, hospitalization, systolic blood pressure, and the timed walk. (2) To …

Response Of Dark-Adapted Retinal Rod Photoreceptors, H. Khanal, V. Alexiades, E. Dibenedetto

Publications

The process of phototransduction, whereby light is converted into an electrical response, in rod and cone photoreceptors in the retina, involves as a key setp, the diffusion of the cytoplasmic, signaling molecules cGMP (cyclic guanosime monophosphate) and Ca²+ diffuse in the cytoplasm (the fluid surrounding the discs). the complex geometry of the rod creates computational difficulties. We present spatio-temporal compuational models for interacctions and diffusion of cGMP and Ca²+ in the cytoplasm of vertebrate rod photoreceptors, as well as numerical simulations fo the response to light of dark-adapted Salamander rods.

Cross-Calibration Of Stroke Disability Measures: Bayesian Analysis Of Longitudinal Ordinal Categorical Data Using Negative Dependence, Giovanni Parmigiani, Heidi W. Ashih, Gregory P. Samsa, Pamela W. Duncan, Sue Min Lai, David B. Matchar

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

It is common to assess disability of stroke patients using standardized scales, such as the Rankin Stroke Outcome Scale (RS) and the Barthel Index (BI). The Rankin Scale, which was designed for applications to stroke, is based on assessing directly the global conditions of a patient. The Barthel Index, which was designed for general applications, is based on a series of questions about the patient’s ability to carry out 10 basis activities of daily living. As both scales are commonly used, but few studies use both, translating between scales is important in gaining an overall understanding of the efficacy of …

An Extended General Location Model For Causal Inference From Data Subject To Noncompliance And Missing Values, Yahong Peng, Rod Little, Trivellore E. Raghuanthan

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Noncompliance is a common problem in experiments involving randomized assignment of treatments, and standard analyses based on intention-to treat or treatment received have limitations. An attractive alternative is to estimate the Complier-Average Causal Effect (CACE), which is the average treatment effect for the subpopulation of subjects who would comply under either treatment (Angrist, Imbens and Rubin, 1996, henceforth AIR). We propose an Extended General Location Model to estimate the CACE from data with non-compliance and missing data in the outcome and in baseline covariates. Models for both continuous and categorical outcomes and ignorable and latent ignorable (Frangakis and Rubin, 1999) …