Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

The Dynamic Relationship Between Permafrost And Landcover In Northwestern Canada’S Discontinuous Permafrost Zone, Olivia Carpino

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Northwestern Canada’s subarctic is among the most impacted regions in the world as it is experiencing rapid climatic and environmental change. As a result, northwestern Canada has been experiencing region-wide permafrost thaw and disappearance, both of which are also occurring at unprecedented rates. Permafrost temperatures in the Taiga Plains have been warming steadily over the last several decades, which has been particularly detrimental across its lower latitudes of the discontinuous permafrost zone where the permafrost is already relatively thin and warm. These factors indicate that permafrost in the southern Taiga Plains may be in a state of disequilibrium with the …

High Winds And Melting Sea Ice Trigger Landward Movement In A Polar Bear Population Of Concern, Annie Kellner, Todd C. Atwood, David C. Douglas, Stewart W. Breck, Colorado State University - Fort Collins

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Some animal species are responding to climate change by altering the timing of events like mating and migration. Such behavioral plasticity can be adaptive, but it is not always. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation have mostly remained on ice year-round, but as the climate warms and summer sea ice declines, a growing proportion of the subpopulation is summering ashore. The triggers of this novel behavior are not well understood. Our study uses a parametric time-to-event model to test whether biological and/or time-varying environmental variables thought to influence polar bear movement and habitat selection …

Potential Interactions Between Diatoms And Bacteria Are Shaped By Trace Element Gradients In The Southern Ocean, Alexa R. Sterling, Laura Z. Holland, Randelle M. Bundy, Shannon M. Burns, Kristen N. Buck, P. Dreux Chappell, Bethany D. Jenkins

OES Faculty Publications

The growth of diatoms in the Southern Ocean, especially the region surrounding the West Antarctic Peninsula, is frequently constrained by low dissolved iron and other trace metal concentrations. This challenge may be overcome by mutualisms between diatoms and co-occurring associated bacteria, in which diatoms produce organic carbon as a substrate for bacterial growth, and bacteria produce siderophores, metal-binding ligands that can supply diatoms with metals upon uptake as well as other useful secondary compounds for diatom growth like vitamins. To examine the relationships between diatoms and bacteria in the plankton (diatom) size class (> 3 mu m), we sampled both …

Sediment Delivery To Sustain The Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta Under Climate Change And Anthropogenic Impacts, Jessica L. Raff, Steven L. Goodbred Jr., Jennifer L. Pickering, Ryan S. Sincavage, John C. Ayers, Md. Saddam Hossain, Carol A. Wilson, Chris Paola, Michael S. Steckler, Dhiman R. Mondal, Jean-Louis Grimaud, Celine Jo Grall, Kimberly G. Rogers, Kazi Matin Ahmed, Syed Jo Grall, Kimberly G. Rogers, Kazi Matin Ahmed, Syed Humayun Akhter, Brandee N. Carlson, Elizabeth L. Chamberlain, Meagan Dejter, Jonathan M. Gilligan, Richard P. Hale, Mahfuzur R. Khan, Md. Golam Muktadir, Md. Munsur Rahman, Lauren A. Williams

OES Faculty Publications

The principal nature-based solution for offsetting relative sea-level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is the unabated delivery, dispersal, and deposition of the rivers’ ~1 billion-tonne annual sediment load. Recent hydrological transport modeling suggests that strengthening monsoon precipitation in the 21st century could increase this sediment delivery 34-60%; yet other studies demonstrate that sediment could decline 15-80% if planned dams and river diversions are fully implemented. We validate these modeled ranges by developing a comprehensive field-based sediment budget that quantifies the supply of Ganges-Brahmaputra river sediment under varying Holocene climate conditions. Our data reveal natural responses in sediment supply comparable to …

Sea Ice Formation, Glacial Melt And The Solubility Pump Boundary Conditions In The Ross Sea, Brice Loose, Sharon Stammerjohn, Peter Sedwick, Stephen Ackley

OES Faculty Publications

Seasonal formation of Dense Shelf Water (DSW) in the Ross Sea is a direct precursor to Antarctic Bottom Water, which fills the deep ocean with atmospheric gases in what composes the southern limb of the solubility pump. Measurements of seawater noble gas concentrations during katabatic wind events in two Ross Sea polynyas reveal the physical processes that determine the boundary value properties for DSW. This decomposition reveals 5–6 g kg⁻¹ of glacial meltwater in DSW and sea-ice production rates of up to 14 m yr⁻¹ within the Terra Nova Bay polynya. Despite winds upwards of 35 m s …

Acidification Of Northeastern Usa Lakes From Rising Anthropogenic-Sourced Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide And Its Effects On Aluminum Speciation, Karen H. Johannesson, Jaxon Dii Horne, Anant Misra, Catherine Aliperta, Orpheus V. Meletis, Robert C. Santore, Christopher D. White, Georgia Mavrommati, David J. Burdige

OES Faculty Publications

The impact of rising atmospheric CO₂ (pCO₂^atm) from anthropogenic activities on pH, dissolved inorganic carbon, carbonate mineral saturation, and aluminum (Al) speciation is evaluated for 18 northeastern USA lakes using polythermal, sliding activity reaction path models. pCO₂^atm was forced using two scenarios from the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report in which pCO₂^atm attains either 600 or 1,100 ppm in 2,100. Results suggest pH will decrease 0.15 and 0.32 pH units, _aCO^2-₃ will decrease 24% and 49%, and Ω_aragonite will decrease 21% and 45%, respectively. These changes are of the same …

Phytoplankton Thermal Trait Parameterization Alters Community Structure And Biogeochemical Processes In A Modeled Ocean, Stephanie I. Anderson, Clara Fronda, Andrew D. Barton, Sophie Clayton, Tatiana A. Rynearson, Stephanie Dutkiewicz

OES Faculty Publications

Phytoplankton exhibit diverse physiological responses to temperature which influence their fitness in the environment and consequently alter their community structure. Here, we explored the sensitivity of phytoplankton community structure to thermal response parameterization in a modelled marine phytoplankton community. Using published empirical data, we evaluated the maximum thermal growth rates (μ_max) and temperature coefficients (Q₁₀; the rate at which growth scales with temperature) of six key Phytoplankton Functional Types (PFTs): coccolithophores, cyanobacteria, diatoms, diazotrophs, dinoflagellates, and green algae. Following three well-documented methods, PFTs were either assumed to have (1) the same μ_max and …

Monitoring Climate Change With Machine Learning And Uncertainty Quantification, Firas Gerges

Dissertations

The impact of climate change on the environment has become increasingly visible today. One important topic in climate change monitoring is to forecast future climate events, which relies on long-term prediction of climate variables at a local regional scale. This topic is crucial for disaster risk management and for resolving climate change at the local level. General Circulation Models (GCMs) allow for the simulation of several climate variables, decades into the future. GCM simulations, however, are at a global large scale and are too coarse to monitor climate change at the local small scale. This dissertation explores new machine learning …

Impacts Of Climate Change On Small Pelagic Fish Catches In The Coastal Artisanal Fishers Communities Of Tanzania, Lyidia Kapapa, Paul Onyango Onyango, Nibedita Mukherjee, Prosper Mfilinge

Tanzania Journal of Science

Climate-related effects occur across all regions in Tanzania, affecting primary sectors such as agriculture and fishing. This study investigated the impacts of climatic change on small pelagic catches in fishers in Kilindoni, Kipumbwi and Kilwa Kivinje villages along the Tanzanian coast. We studied how changes in rainfall, sea surface temperature, wind speed and chlorophyll a affect small pelagic fisheries using primary and secondary data. Qualitative and quantitative methods were applied. Primary data collection involved questionnaires, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Secondary data was obtained from Tanzania Meteorological Agency and remote sensing from Modi's sensor. Results showed an increase …

Assessing The Health Effects Of Climate Change, Social Vulnerability, And Environmental Justice In Camden County, New Jersey, Daniil Ivanov

Theses

Climate change negatively impacts health, while socially vulnerable and overburdened communities disproportionately experience climate change and negative health determinants. Camden County is used as a case study for analyzing environment, socioeconomics, and health. Environmental variables—PM2.5 and land cover of impervious surfaces, floodplains, and forests—were compared to the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) at the census tract level, finding significant correlations between land cover, air quality, and the SVI. The overburdened communities defined by the NJ Environmental Justice Law experienced a significantly higher incidence of emergency department visitation for respiratory, circulatory, and mental illnesses than non-overburdened communities. Health outcomes were compared …

To Destroy Or Transform? Two Fossil Fuel Transitions Offer Glimpse Into Industry’S Future, Chloe Bennett, Sarah Kerson

Capstones

In 2019, the Philadelphia Energy Solutions oil refinery closed after a dangerous explosion. But for years before the accident, members of the local environmental justice organization Philly Thrive had been advocating for its closure. Neighborhood residents who live near the refinery site had been complaining for years of health problems, ranging from asthma to cancer. “Enough is enough,” says Sylvia Bennett, 79, who lives in the Grays Ferry neighborhood near where the refinery is located. Her two daughters have both been diagnosed with cancer.

What will become of the refinery site remains to be seen as conversations between Hilco and …

Utilizing Remote Sensing Technology To Relocate Lubra Village And Visualize Flood Damages, Ronan Wallace

Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science Honors Projects

As weather patterns change worldwide, isolated communities impacted by climate change go unnoticed and we need community and habitat-conscious solutions. In Himalayan Mustang, Nepal, indigenous Lubra village faces threats of increasing flash flooding. After every flood, residual concrete-like sediment hardens across the riverbed, causing the riverbed elevation to rise. As elevation increases, sediment encroaches on Lubra’s agricultural fields and homes, magnifying flood vulnerability. In the last monsoon season alone, the village witnessed floods swallowing several fields and damaging two homes. One solution considers relocating the village to a new location entirely. However, relocation poses a challenging task, as eight centuries …

Crisisready's Novel Framework For Transdisciplinary Translation: Case-Studies In Wildfire And Hurricane Response, Andrew Schroeder, Caleb Dresser, Akash Yadav, Jennifer Chan, Shenyue Jia, Caroline Buckee, Satchit Balsari

Institute for ECHO Articles and Research

Extreme weather events including wildfires and hurricanes are becoming increasingly hazardous due to climate change, and often result in transient or permanent population displacements. Disaster-related disruptions in infrastructure, workforce, wages, and social networks can combine with population displacements to result in interruptions in health care access and prolonged impacts on morbidity and mortality. The data needed to make health systems and emergency management approaches more resilient to these hazards, and more responsive to the needs of affected populations, are sequestered in silos across private corporations and public agencies. In two case studies, we describe how our research team at CrisisReady …

Future Colorado River Basin Drought And Surplus, Rama Bedri, Thomas Piechota

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Historical and future drought and surplus periods in the Colorado River basin are evaluated based on eight climate scenarios. Unimpaired streamflow from 17 stations in the Colorado River are evaluated based on U.S. Geological Survey, Bureau of Reclamation, and Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Projection 5 downscaled data from 1950–2099. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios are considered for four climate models (HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, MI-ROC5). Drought (surplus) quantities, magnitudes, severities, and water year flows are compared for the historical and future periods. Results indicate that there is a significant difference between the historical record and future projections. The …

Scientists And Activists Work To Save The Planet, Myriam G. Vidal Valero

Capstones

Climate change and human intervention in nature are affecting people, ecosystems and ways of living all over the world. This portfolio of environmental pieces showcases the dire consequences of not addressing these issues, how solutions can be reached and the challenges facing those who try to change things.

Predictions And Drivers Of Sub-Reach-Scale Annual Streamflow Permanence For The Upper Missouri River Basin: 1989–2018, Kendra E. Kaiser

Geosciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

The presence of year-round surface water in streams (i.e., streamflow permanence) is an important factor for identifying aquatic habitat availability, determining the regulatory status of streams, managing land use change, allocating water resources, and designing scientific studies. However, accurate, high resolution, and dynamic prediction of streamflow permanence that accounts for year-to-year variability at a regional extent is a major gap in modeling capability. Herein, we expand and adapt the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model from its original implementation in the Pacific Northwest (PROSPER_PNW) to the upper Missouri River basin (PROSPER_UM), a …

Atlantic Surfclam (Spisula Solidissima) Population Demographics And Distribution Along The Middle Atlantic Bight, Mauricio González Díaz

OES Theses and Dissertations

The Atlantic surfclam (Spisula solidissima) is a long-lived benthic biomass dominant organism that occurs on the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) continental shelf between 10 m and 50 m. Trends in Atlantic surfclam population specific growth and mortality rates were analyzed using four decades of age and length observations obtained from NOAA stock surveys from the 1980s to 2010s in six regions distributed along the MAB. Atlantic surfclam specific growth rates and asymptotic lengths were estimated from the age and length observations using the von Bertalanffy growth model. The analysis showed that the Atlantic surfclam median asymptotic length in …

Comparing Past And Future Drought And Surplus Periods In The Colorado River Basin, Rama Bedri

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

The Colorado River Basin is crucial to the Western United States, providing water for seven states and Mexico. Historical and future periods of drought and surplus are analyzed in 17 Colorado River stations. Unimpaired streamflow data are evaluated from the U.S. Geological Survey, Bureau of Reclamation, and Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Projection 5 from 1950-2099. Future projections are based on eight climate scenarios. Four climate models (HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, MI-ROC5) are observed at Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Furthermore, the ensemble water year means of the four models are analyzed. The durations of drought or surplus, magnitudes, …

Estimation Of Economic Risk From Coastal Natural Hazards In Louisiana, Rubayet Bin Mostafiz

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Louisiana, U.S.A., is among the most vulnerable areas globally to coastal natural hazards, with risk vulnerability likely increasing. The risks associated with non-tropical-cyclone hazards in Louisiana’s coastal zone have been understudied. This research enhances present and future (i.e., 2050) Louisiana risk assessment using locally-weighted, model-based hazard frequency/intensity and population projections.

Results suggest that property risks associated with extreme cold temperature and tornado are and will remain costlier than those for hail and lightning. Property risks of extreme cold temperature and hail are projected to decrease with the expected warming temperatures, with those of all four of these hazards peaking in …

I-Climate: A “Clinical Climate Informatics” Action Framework To Reduce Environmental Pollution From Healthcare, Dean F Sittig, Jodi D Sherman, Matthew J Eckelman, Andrew Draper, Hardeep Singh

Faculty, Staff and Student Publications

Addressing environmental pollution and climate change is one of the biggest sociotechnical challenges of our time. While information technology has led to improvements in healthcare, it has also contributed to increased energy usage, destructive natural resource extraction, piles of e-waste, and increased greenhouse gases. We introduce a framework "Information technology-enabled Clinical cLimate InforMAtics acTions for the Environment" (i-CLIMATE) to illustrate how clinical informatics can help reduce healthcare's environmental pollution and climate-related impacts using 5 actionable components: (1) create a circular economy for health IT, (2) reduce energy consumption through smarter use of health IT, (3) support more environmentally friendly decision-making …

How Impervious Are Solar Arrays? On The Need For Geomorphic Assessment Of Energy Transition Technologies, Charles Shobe

Faculty & Staff Scholarship

Staying within manageable global temperature rise scenarios (i.e., 1.5° C) requires rapid decarbonization of energy sources. Research on the energy transition typically focuses on engineering, socioeconomic, and political challenges related to implementation of renewable energy technologies. Yet many facets of the energy transition are intricately intertwined with earth surface processes. Projects that advance the energy transition affect surface hydrology, sediment transport, and landscape evolution. Geomorphic processes likewise set the feasibility of energy transition projects. Here I use the lens of a recent policy debate to examine a case study that illustrates the key role of surface processes in determining the …

Changing Climates And Extreme Weather For Minnesota, Patrick A. Tebbe

Mechanical and Civil Engineering Department Publications

Climate change is impacting the design, prediction, and operation of HVAC systems for the built environment, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. This presentation reviews climate predictions for the upper Midwest and how they will affect the HVAC industry. Topics such as changing design conditions, extreme weather impact, and increased electrification will be addressed.

Climate Change Impacts On Groundwater In Mapc Communities, Jayne F. Knott, Paul Kirshen, Ellen Douglas

School for the Environment General Publications

Groundwater is important for human health and the environment but has often been overlooked in the development of climate change adaptation strategies. This is because groundwater is rarely visible, and because changes in groundwater levels are not as dramatic as extreme flooding events, coastal storms, and storm surge. The importance of groundwater for drinking water, natural resources, and streamflow is well documented. Groundwater levels are also important considerations in the design of pavements, underground infrastructure, foundations, on-site wastewater treatment systems, and in the remediation of hazardous waste disposal areas. Groundwater is especially important in the wet northeast, where groundwater levels …

Striving To Be Resilient: The Role Of Crop-Poultry Integrated System As A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy In Semiarid Eastern Kenya, Kelvin Mulungu, Daniel Kangogo

All Peer-Reviewed Publications

Climate change continues to pose significant challenges to food security and livelihoods of smallholder farmers specifically in semi-arid regions. One approach that holds prospects for climate risk management is climate-smart agriculture (CSA). CSA has concentrated on crop practices with little attention to livestock especially indigenous (village) chickens as a potential practice that can be combined with crop agriculture. This study considers the adoption of three CSA practices: improved maize seeds (IS), soil management (SM), indigenous chicken (IC) enterprise and their various combinations. Using survey data collected from 300 farming households in semiarid Kenya, we estimate the impact of integrated crop-poultry …

Comparative Behavioral Ecotoxicology Of Inland Silverside Larvae Exposed To Pyrethroids Across A Salinity Gradient, Sara J. Hutton, Samreen Siddiqui, Emily I. Pedersen, Christopher Y. Markgraf, Amelie Segarra, Michelle L. Hladik, Richard E. Connon, Susanne M. Brander

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Pyrethroids, a class of commonly used insecticides, are frequently detected in aquatic environments, including estuaries. The influence that salinity has on organism physiology and the partitioning of hydrophobic chemicals, such as pyrethroids, has driven interest in how toxicity changes in saltwater compared to freshwater. Early life exposures in fish to pyrethroids cause toxicity at environmentally relevant concentrations, which can alter behavior. Behavior is a highly sensitive endpoint that influences overall organism fitness and can be used to detect toxicity of environmentally relevant concentrations of aquatic pollutants. Inland Silversides (Menidia beryllina), a commonly used euryhaline model fish species, were exposed …

Regenerative Agriculture Framework For Island Ecosystems Using São Miguel As A Case Study, Mya Hunter

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Context: Regenerative agriculture is a farming approach that uses soil health as the entry point to contribute to multiple objectives, such as improved nutrient cycling and climate regulation. Farmers can apply different practices to reach these objectives. The objectives and practices, however, are not equally relevant or applicable for farming systems on island ecosystems and the local context.

Objectives: The main objective of this paper, therefore, is to find out how solutions towards regenerative agriculture can be identified and evaluated as such that they result in meaningful advice for farmers on island ecosystems in order to mitigate the …

A Mathematical Model For The Energy Stored In Green Roofs, Maria Aguareles, Marc Calvo-Schwarzwalder, Francesc Font, Timothy G. Myers

All Works

A simple mathematical model to estimate the energy stored in a green roof is developed. Analytical solutions are derived corresponding to extensive (shallow) and intensive (deep) substrates. Results are presented for the surface temperature and energy stored in both green roofs and concrete during a typical day. Within the restrictions of the model assumptions the analytical solution demonstrates that both energy and surface temperature vary linearly with fractional leaf coverage, albedo and irradiance, while the effect of evaporation rate and convective heat transfer is non-linear. It is shown that a typical green roof is significantly cooler and stores less energy …

Outdoor Thermal Comfort Research In Transient Conditions: A Narrative Literature Review, Yuliya Dzyuban, Graces N. Y. Ching, Sin Kang Yik, Adrian J. Tan, Shreya Banerjee, Peter Jay Crank, Winston T. L. Chow

Research Collection College of Integrative Studies

In recent years, urban planners and designers are paying greater attention to Outdoor Thermal Comfort (OTC) studies due to the imminent threat of the Urban Heat Island and climate change on human health. Historically, indoor thermal comfort research assumed steady-state conditions, centralizing on the concept of thermal neutrality to determine optimal environmental parameters. Such research pivoted to investigating how non-steady-state, transient environmental conditions influence comfort. Recent studies underscore the usefulness of positive alliesthesia in providing a productive framework for OTC evaluation. In this article we first clarify the concepts related to thermal comfort-related terms, scales, and models in the literature. …

Climate Impacts On North American Quail, Shelby M. Perry, Erin Moser, Jeffrey G. Whitt, Kelly S. Reyna

National Quail Symposium Proceedings

North America’s quail population trends are often linked to regional climate. Extreme climate events such as severe drought, hard freezes, or excessive winter precipitation can reduce quail populations by as much as 84%. Above-average spring and summer temperatures coincident with drought can reduce the laying season for quail by ≤60 days. Exposure of quail eggs to high temperatures during preincubation can initiate and alter embryonic development. Here, we review the impacts of extreme climate events and a changing climate on the survival, reproduction, and population trends of 6 North American quail species: California quail (Callipepla californica), Gambel’s quail …

Northern Bobwhite And Fire: A Review And Synthesis, David A. Weber, Evan P. Tanner, Theron M. Terhune Ii, J. Morgan Varner, James A. Martin

National Quail Symposium Proceedings

Our understanding of the relationship between northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus; hereafter, bobwhite) and fire began with Herbert Stoddard’s work in the early 20th century. Research on the topic has continued, but our application of fire is deeply rooted in Stoddard’s work, even as it has become evident that fire regimes must be adapted to variable environmental conditions that are evolving with a changing landscape and climate. A comprehensive review and synthesis of the literature on this topic would help formalize research advancements since Stoddard and identify knowledge gaps for future research. Results from experiments suggest fire creates favorable …