Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Impacts Of Climate Change On The Surface Water Balance Of The Central United States, 1984-2007, Bo Dong

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The climate system and the hydrologic cycle are strongly connected with each other. Understanding the interactions between these two systems is important, since variations in climate can trigger extensive changes in the hydrologic cycle, with significant impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, and society. Observations over the central U.S. in recent decades show numerous changes in climatic variables. This includes decreases in cloud cover and wind speed, increases in air temperature, and seasonal shifts in precipitation rate and rain/snow fraction. To assess the impacts of these variations in climate on the regional water cycle, a terrestrial ecosystem/land surface hydrologic model (Agro-IBIS) is …

Sequias En El Sur De La Peninsula De Yucatan: Analisis De La Variabilidad Anual Y Estacional De La Precipitacion (Droughts In The Southern Yucatan Peninsula: Analysis Of The Annual And Seasonal Precipitation Variability), Sofia Mardero, Elsa Nickl, Birgit Schmook, Laura Schneider, John Rogan, Zachary Christman, Deborah Lawrence

School of Earth & Environment Faculty Scholarship

Paper is in Spanish. English abstract: This study analyzes the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation across the Southern Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico, addressing the anomalies and trends of annual and seasonal precipitation as well as the occurrence of meteorological droughts, using rainfall data from nine weather stations during the period 1953-2007. Linear regression in the annual and seasonal rainfall were used to analyze the increase or decrease in precipitation trends over this period. Precipitation anomalies enabled the evaluation of the stability, deficit, or surplus of precipitation for each year or season, and a quintile method was used to …

Observational And Synoptic Analyses Of The Winter Precipitation Regime Change Over Utah, Robert R. Gillies, Shih-Yu Wang, Marty R. Booth

Plants, Soils, and Climate Faculty Publications

Previous studies have indicated a widespread decline in snowpack over Utah accompanied by a decline in the snow–precipitation ratio while anecdotal evidence claims have been put forward that measured changes in Utah’s snowpack are spurious and do not reflect actual change. Using two distinct lines of investigation, this paper further analyzes the winter precipitation regime in the state of Utah. First, by means of observation-based, gridded daily temperature, precipitation, and remotely sensed data, as well as utilizing a climatological rain–snow threshold (RST) temperature method, the precipitation regime of Utah was scrutinized. Second, a comprehensive synoptic analysis was conducted as an …

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation-Forced Regional Summertime Precipitation Variations In The Central United States, Michael C. Veres

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The purpose of this research is to identify the regional mechanisms by which the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) influences summer (June-August) precipitation in the central U.S. This was accomplished by running two different sets of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, one forced by observations and the other forced only by variations in the AMO as obtained via a global climate model (GCM). The results reveal a complex set of mechanisms active in the lower and middle troposphere by which the AMO influences summer circulation and precipitation in the central U.S. During the cold phase …

Hydroclimatic Forecasting In The Western United States Using Paleoclimate Reconstructions And Data-Driven Models, Christopher Allen Carrier

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

This thesis investigated climate variability and their associated hydrologic responses in the western United States. The western United States faces the problem of water scarcity, where the management and mitigation of available water supplies are further complicated by climate variability. Climate variability associated with the phases of oceanic-atmospheric oscillations has been shown to influence streamflow and precipitation, where predictive relationships have led to the possibility of producing long-range forecasts. Based on literature review, four oceanic-atmospheric oscillation indices were identified in having the most prominent influence over the western United States including the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal …

Climate Change In The Piscataqua/Great Bay Region: Past, Present, And Future, Cameron P. Wake, Elizabeth Burakowski, Eric Kelsey, Katharine Hayhoe, Anne Stoner, Chris Watson, Ellen Douglas

The Sustainability Institute Publications

Earth ’s climate changes. It always has and always will. However, an extensive body of scientific evidence indicates that human activities are now a significant force driving change in the Earth’s climate system. This report describes how the climate of the Piscataqua/Great Bay region of coastal New Hampshire in the United States has changed over the past century and how the future climate of the region will be affected by human activities that are warming the planet.

Overall, the region has been getting warmer and wetter over the last century, and the rate of change has increased over the last …

Slides: Risk Management Strategies Of The Upper Basin: Addressing Potential Shortages, Eric Kuhn

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Eric Kuhn, Colorado River Water Conservation District

15 slides

The Influence Of Meteorological Parameters On Rainfall And Severe Weather In Pinellas County, Fl, Cristina A. Mazza

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Pinellas County is located on a peninsula in Florida that experiences daily patterns of sea breeze associated rainfall mainly during the summer months of June through August. Previously, rainfall patterns, amounts and timing and severe weather in Pinellas County have not been examined considering dominant wind flow patterns, sea breeze circulations and other atmospheric variables. To improve forecasting of local mesoscale phenomena, this project examined the rainfall patterns, amounts and timing and severe weather occurrences that occur as a result of sea breezes and associated prevailing wind regimes within Pinellas County for the months of June, July and August for …

A Diagnostic Examination Of Consecutive Extreme Cool-Season Precipitation Events At St. John's, Newfoundland, In December 2008, Shawn M. Milrad, Eyad H. Atallah, John R. Gyakum

Publications

St. John’s, Newfoundland, Canada (CYYT), is frequently affected by extreme precipitation events, particularly in the cool season (October–April). Previous work classified precipitation events at CYYT into categories by precipitation amount and a manual synoptic typing was performed on the 50 median extreme precipitation events, using two separate methods. Here, consecutive extreme precipitation events in December 2008 are analyzed. These events occurred over a 6-day period and produced over 125 mm of precipitation at CYYT. The first manual typing method, using a backward-trajectory analysis, results in both events being classified as “southwest,” which were previously defined as the majority of the …

Synoptic Typing Of Extreme Cool-Season Precipitation Events At St. John's, Newfoundland, 1979-2005, Shawn M. Milrad, Eyad H. Atallah, John R. Gyakum

Publications

Quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) continues to be a significant challenge in operational forecasting, particularly in regions susceptible to extreme precipitation events. St. John’s, Newfoundland, Canada (CYYT), is affected frequently by such events, particularly in the cool season (October–April).

The 50 median events in the extreme (>33.78 mm during a 48-h period) precipitation event category are selected for further analysis. A manual synoptic typing is performed on these 50 events, using two separate methodologies to partition events. The first method utilizes a Lagrangian backward air parcel trajectory analysis and the second method utilizes the evolution of dynamically relevant variables, including …

Effects Of Drought On Avian Community Structure, Thomas P. Albright, Anna M. Pidgeon, Chadwick D. Rittenhouse, Murray K. Clayton, Curtis H. Flather, Patrick D. Culbert, Brian D. Wardlows, Volker C. Radeloff

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Droughts are expected to become more frequent under global climate change. Avifauna depend on precipitation for hydration, cover, and food. While there are indications that avian communities respond negatively to drought, little is known about the response of birds with differing functional and behavioral traits, what time periods and indicators of drought are most relevant, or how response varies geographically at broad spatial scales. Our goals were thus to determine (1) how avian abundance and species richness are related to drought, (2) whether community variations are more related to vegetation vigor or precipitation deviations and at what time periods relationships …

Slides: Water Footprints: Consciousness Raising Meets Risk Management, Steve Malloch

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Steve Malloch, Senior Western Water Program Manager, National Wildlife Federation, Seattle, WA

38 slides

Slides: Climate Change And The Death Of Stationarity: A New Era For Western Water?, Stephen T. Gray

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Steven T. Gray, Wyoming State Climatologist, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY

48 slides

Synoptic-Scale Characteristics And Precursors Of Cool-Season Precipitation Events At St. John's, Newfoundland, 1979-2005, Shawn M. Milrad, Eyad H. Atallah, John R. Gyakum

Publications

The issue of quantitative precipitation forecasting continues to be a significant challenge in operational forecasting, particularly in regions susceptible to frequent and extreme precipitation events. St. John’s, Newfoundland, Canada, is one location affected frequently by such events, particularly in the cool season (October–April). These events can include flooding rains, paralyzing snowfall, and damaging winds.

A precipitation climatology is developed at St. John’s for 1979–2005, based on discrete precipitation events occurring over a time period of up to 48 h. Threshold amounts for three categories of precipitation events (extreme, moderate, and light) are statistically derived and utilized to categorize such events. …

Changes In Continental Freshwater Discharge From 1948 To 2004, Aiguo Dai, Taotao Qian, Kevin E. Trenberth, John D. Millliman

VIMS Articles

A new dataset of historical monthly streamflow at the farthest downstream stations for the world’s 925 largest ocean-reaching rivers has been created for community use. Available new gauge records are added to a network of gauges that covers ∼80 × 10⁶ km² or ∼80% of global ocean-draining land areas and accounts for about 73% of global total runoff. For most of the large rivers, the record for 1948–2004 is fairly complete. Data gaps in the records are filled through linear regression using streamflow simulated by a land surface model [Community Land Model, version 3 (CLM3)] forced with observed …

Dynamical And Precipitation Structures Of Poleward-Moving Tropical Cyclones In Eastern Canada, 1979-2005, Shawn M. Milrad, Eyad H. Atallah, John R. Gyakum

Publications

Tropical cyclones in the western North Atlantic basin are a persistent threat to human interests along the east coast of North America. Occurring mainly during the late summer and early autumn, these storms often cause strong winds and extreme rainfall and can have a large impact on the weather of eastern Canada. From 1979 to 2005, 40 named (by the National Hurricane Center) tropical cyclones tracked over eastern Canada. Based on the time tendency of the low-level (850–700 hPa) vorticity, the storms are partitioned into two groups: ‘‘intensifying’’ and ‘‘decaying.’’ The 16 intensifying and 12 decaying cases are then analyzed …

Optics And Remote Sensing Of Bahamian Carbonate Sediment Whitings And Potential Relationship To Wind-Driven Langmuir Circulation, H. M. Dierssen, Richard C. Zimmerman, David J. Burdige

OES Faculty Publications

Regions of milky white seas or "whitings" periodically occur to the west of Andros Island along the Great Bahama Bank where the bottom sediment consists of fine-grained aragonite mud. We present measurements of inherent optical properties within a sediment whiting patch and discuss the potential for monitoring the frequency, extent, and quantity of suspended matter from ocean colour satellite imagery. Sea spectral reflectance measured in situ and remotely from space revealed highly reflective waters elevated across the visible spectrum (i.e., "whitened") with a peak at 490 nm. Particulate backscattering was an order of magnitude higher than that measured at other …

Anthropogenic Osmium In Rain And Snow Reveals Global-Scale Atmospheric Contamination, Cynthia Chen, Peter N. Sedwick, Mukul Sharma

OES Faculty Publications

Osmium is one of the rarer elements in seawater, with typical concentration of ≈10 x 10^-15 g g^-1 ( 5.3 x 10^-14 mol kg^-1. The osmium isotope composition (¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os ratio) of deep oceans is 1.05, reflecting a balance between inputs from continental crust (≈ 1.3) and mantle/cosmic dust (≈ 0.13). Here, we show that the ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os ratios measured in rain and snow collected around the world range from 0.16 to 0.48, much lower than expected (>1), but similar to the isotope composition of ores (approximate to 0.2) …

Precipitation Rates And Atmospheric Heat Transport During The Cenomanian Greenhouse Warming In North America: Estimates From A Stable Isotope Mass-Balance Model, David F. Ufnar, Greg A. Ludvigson, Luis González, Darren R. Gröcke

Faculty Publications

Stable isotope mass-balance modeling results of meteoric δ¹⁸O values from the Cenomanian Stage of the Cretaceous Western Interior Basin (KWIB) suggest that precipitation and evaporation fluxes were greater than that of the present and significantly different from simulations of Albian KWIB paleohydrology. Sphaerosiderite meteoric δ¹⁸O values have been compiled from the Lower Tuscaloosa Formation of southwestern Mississippi (25°N paleolatitude), The Dakota Formation Rose Creek Pit, Fairbury Nebraska (35°N) and the Dunvegan Formation of eastern British Columbia (55°N paleolatitude). These paleosol siderite δ¹⁸O values define a paleolatitudinal gradient ranging from − 4.2‰ VPDB at 25°N …

Regional Analysis Of Trend And Step Changes Observed In Hydroclimatic Variables Around The Colorado River Basin, William Paul Miller, Thomas C. Piechota

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Recent research has suggested that changes in temperature and precipitation events due to climate change have had a significant impact on the availability and timing of streamflow. In this study, monthly temperature and precipitation data collected over 29 climate divisions covering the entire Colorado River basin and monthly natural flow data from 29 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauge locations along the Colorado River are investigated for trend or step changes using parametric and nonparametric statistical tests. Temperature increases are persistent (at least 10 climate divisions over 6 months in trend analysis) throughout the year over the Colorado River basin, whereas …

Water Quality Dynamics Of Lake James In The Catawba River Basin Of North Carolina, Susan Stokes

All Dissertations

Lake James is the uppermost hydropower reservoir in the Catawba River drainage in North Carolina. The Lake James Assessment (LJA) was a descriptive study initiated between Clemson University and Duke Energy Corporation to explore the physical, chemical and biological dynamics of this oligotrophic reservoir from spring 1997 through fall 1999 (Schindler 1997). The goals of this study were to ascertain the primary drivers for the chemical dynamics of Lake James, to assess the quantities of constituents entering and leaving the reservoir, where these chemicals were incorporated within the reservoir basins, and to evaluate the efficacy of the LJA chemical budget …

Slides: Summary: Sources Of Stress And The Changing Context Of Natural Resources Law And Policy In The New West, William R. Travis

The Future of Natural Resources Law and Policy (Summer Conference, June 6-8)

Presenter: Dr. William R. Travis, Department of Geography, University of Colorado at Boulder

43 slides

Modification Of Precipitation By Coastal Orography In Storms Crossing Northern California, Curtis N. James, Robert A. Houze Jr.

Applied Aviation Sciences - Prescott

This study compiles and interprets three-dimensional Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data during a 2.5-yr period and examines the typical orographic effects on precipitation mainly associated with winter storms passing over coastal northern California.The three-dimensional mean reflectivity patterns show echo structure that was generally stratiform from over the ocean to inland over the mountains. The flow above the 1-km level was strong enough to be unblocked by the terrain, and the mean echo pattern over land had certain characteristics normally associated with an unblocked cross-barrier flow, both on the broad scale of the windward slopes of the coastal mountains and …

Slides: Balancing Drought And Flood In The Pacific Northwest: The Challenge Of Climate Change, Doug Mcchesney

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

1 page "Abstract" and 36 slides

"Doug McChesney, Manager, Policy and Planning Section, Washington Department of Ecology"

Slides: California Water And Climate Change, Dan Cayan, Mike Dettinger

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

Presenter: Dan Cayan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography

32 slides

"Dan Cayan (1,2) 1 Mike Dettinger (2,1) SIO 2 USGS 3"

Spatial Representation Of Agroclimatology In A Study Of Agricultural Drought, Olga V. Wilhelmi, Kenneth Hubbard, Donald A. Wilhite

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Agricultural drought is the leading cause for crop failure throughout the world. In the USA, significant impacts of recent droughts on agricultural production indicate the continuing vulnerability of the country to drought. This paper presents a methodology for spatial representation of the agroclimatic component of agricultural drought vulnerability. This methodology was developed as a part of an integrated assessment of drought vulnerability. For the spatial analysis, the state of Nebraska was selected as a study area because of the considerable variation in climatology, soil characteristics, land use, and cropping patterns. The underlying approach assumes that the best spatial characterization of …

Calibrated Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based On The Mrf Ensemble, Frederick Anthony Eckel

Theses and Dissertations

Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPF) based on the medium range forecast (MRF) ensemble are currently in operational use below their full potential quality (i.e., accuracy and reliability). This unfulfilled potential is due to the MRF ensemble being adversely affected by systematic errors which arise from an imperfect model and less than ideal ensemble initial perturbations. This thesis sought to construct a calibration to account for these systematic errors and thus produce higher quality PQPF. Systematic errors were explored with the use of the verification rank histogram, which tracks the performance of the ensemble. The information in these histograms was then …

A Comparison Of Advect Cloud Model And Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model Total Fractional Cloud Forecasts, Brian D. Pukall

Theses and Dissertations

Total fractional cloudiness (FC) forecasts from the advect cloud (ADVCLD) model and total FC forecasts diagnosed from the relative humidity and total cloud condensate (snow, ice, rain water, and cloud water) fields from the fifth generation mesoscale model (MM5) were statistically and subjectively compared to determine which model produced the better total FC forecasts from August through November 1997 for a forecast window centered on Bosnia. The real time nephanalysis (RTNFPH) model was used to represent the true state of the atmosphere. ADVCLD and MM5 forecasts were also compared against a persistence forecast to provide a minimal skill baseline. The …

Potential Regional Impacts Of Global Warming On Precipitation In The Western United States, United States Department Of The Interior, Bureau Of Reclamation

Meterology

Snow and melting of the snowpack provide the principal supply of water to much of the Western United States. Whether global warming threatens this water supply is the focus of this research. This study builds upon a previous Global Climate Change Response Program investigation. Charts were generated of four geopotential height parameters for a domain covering the eastern North Pacific Ocean and western North America. Out of 131 total winter months (from 1946-89), 35 were selected as analogues.

Monthly mean precipitation values for areas in western Montana, northern Utah, and east central Arizona were compared with median values for the …

Elimination Of Dissolved Sulfide Interference In The Flow-Injection Determination Of Sigma-Co2 By Addition Of Molybdate, Rigel L. Lustwerk, David J. Burdige

OES Faculty Publications

A previously described flow injection method for the analysis of ΣCO₂ included the addition of ZnCl₂ to some samples before analysis in order to precipitate dissolved sulfide (which interferes with the method) as ZnS. However, the use of Zn²⁺ in samples with high concentrations of dissolved sulfide causes the coprecipitation of ZnCO₃, and in our experience with this technique, ZnCO₃ also precipitates even in the absence of dissolved sulfide. The addition of molybdate effectively complexes dissolved sulfide without interfering with the determination of ΣCO2 by this technique.