Epidemiology Commons^™

Different Public Health Interventions Have Varying Effects, Paula Diehr, Anne B. Newman, Liming Cai, Ann Derleth

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Objective: To compare performance of one-time health interventions to those that change the probability of transitioning from one health state to another. Study Design and Setting: We used multi-state life table methods to estimate the impact of eight types of interventions on several outcomes. Results: In a cohort beginning at age 65, curing all the sick persons at baseline would increase life expectancy by 0.23 years and increase years of healthy life by .54 years. An equal amount of improvement could be obtained with a 12% decrease in the probability of getting sick, a 16% increase in the probability of …

A Hybrid Model For Reducing Ecological Bias, Ruth Salway, Jon Wakefield

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

A major drawback of epidemiological ecological studies, in which the association between area-level summaries of risk and exposure are used to make inference about individual risk, is the difficulty in characterising within-area variability in exposure and confounder variables. To avoid ecological bias, samples of individual exposure/confounder data within each area are required. Unfortunately these may be difficult or expensive to obtain, particularly if large samples are required. In this paper we propose a new approach suitable for use with small samples. We combine a Bayesian non-parametric Dirichlet process prior with an estimating functions approach, and show that this model gives …

Health-Exposure Modelling And The Ecological Fallacy, Jon Wakefield, Gavin Shaddick

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Recently there has been increased interest in modelling the association between aggregate disease counts and environmental exposures measured, for example via air pollution monitors, at point locations. This paper has two aims: first we develop a model for such data in order to avoid ecological bias; second we illustrate that modelling the exposure surface and estimating exposures may lead to bias in estimation of health effects. Design issues are also briefly considered, in particular the loss of information in moving from individual to ecological data, and the at-risk populations to consider in relation to the pollution monitor locations. The approach …

Bayesian Hierarchical Distributed Lag Models For Summer Ozone Exposure And Cardio-Respiratory Mortality, Yi Huang, Francesca Dominici, Michelle L. Bell

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

In this paper, we develop Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models for estimating associations between daily variations in summer ozone levels and daily variations in cardiovascular and respiratory (CVDRESP) mortality counts for 19 U.S. large cities included in the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) for the period 1987 - 1994.

At the first stage, we define a semi-parametric distributed lag Poisson regression model to estimate city-specific relative rates of CVDRESP associated with short-term exposure to summer ozone. At the second stage, we specify a class of distributions for the true city-specific relative rates to estimate an overall effect by …

Individualized Predictions Of Disease Progression Following Radiation Therapy For Prostate Cancer., Jeremy Taylor, Menggang Yu, Howard M. Sandler

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Background: Following treatment for localized prostate cancer, men are monitored with serial PSA measurements. Refining the predictive value of post-treatment PSA determinations may add to clinical management and we have developed a model that predicts for an individual patient future PSA values and estimates the time to future clinical recurrence.

Methods: Data from 934 patients treated for prostate cancer between 1987 and 2000 were used to develop a comprehensive statistical model to fit the clinical recurrence events and pattern of PSA data. A logistic regression model was used for the probability of cure, non-linear hierarchical mixed models were used for …

Cross-Calibration Of Stroke Disability Measures: Bayesian Analysis Of Longitudinal Ordinal Categorical Data Using Negative Dependence, Giovanni Parmigiani, Heidi W. Ashih, Gregory P. Samsa, Pamela W. Duncan, Sue Min Lai, David B. Matchar

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

It is common to assess disability of stroke patients using standardized scales, such as the Rankin Stroke Outcome Scale (RS) and the Barthel Index (BI). The Rankin Scale, which was designed for applications to stroke, is based on assessing directly the global conditions of a patient. The Barthel Index, which was designed for general applications, is based on a series of questions about the patient’s ability to carry out 10 basis activities of daily living. As both scales are commonly used, but few studies use both, translating between scales is important in gaining an overall understanding of the efficacy of …

Temporal Stability And Geographic Variation In Cumulative Case Fatality Rates And Average Doubling Times Of Sars Epidemics, Alison P. Galvani, Xiudong Lei, Nicholas P. Jewell

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

We analyze temporal stability and geographic trends in cumulative case fatality rates and average doubling times of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). In part, we account for correlations between case fatality rates and doubling times through differences in control measures. We discuss factors that may alter future estimates of case fatality rates. We also discuss reasons for heterogeneity in doubling times among countries and the implications for the control of SARS in different countries and parameterization of epidemic models.

Acquired Immuno-Deficiency Syndrome (Aids) And Human Immuno-Deficiency Virus (Hiv) In Nevada – Annual Surveillance Report (1999), Mary Guinan, Nancy Kreher, Drew Mather, Wei Yang

School of Public Health Faculty Research

Background:

Acquired Immuno-Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is the most severe manifestation of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection. AIDS was first reported in the world in 1981 by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Statewide surveillance for AIDS was begun in 1982. Because the cause of AIDS was unknown at that time, the surveillance case definition included many opportunistic infections and tumors. Persons with AIDS were noted to have abnormalities in their immune system that left them susceptible to certain infections. As more information became available, the AIDS surveillance case definition was modified.

In 1984, HIV was found to be the …

European Madness And Mad Cow Disease, Ibpp Editor

International Bulletin of Political Psychology

This article describes some of the psychological factors that might attenuate unadaptive anxieties about the threat of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, mad cow disease.

Trends. Controlling Aids Through Control, Ibpp Editor

International Bulletin of Political Psychology

This article discusses the concept of political control and public health in the context of the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

Mathematical Transmission Model Of The Spread Of Hiv Through Sexual Contact And Iv Drug Usage Among Heterosexuals In Western Australia, B. Glockner

Theses : Honours

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and its latter stage, the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), are still a major health problem in the world and the full extent of the epidemic is unknown. The HIV virus in Australia has been spread mainly through homosexual contact, but this mode of transmission is decreasing while transmission from heterosexual contact and from IV drug use is increasing. The proposed mathematical model concentrates on transmission of the HIV virus through heterosexual contact and IV drug use among heterosexuals in Western Australia. The model parameters will be estimated from surveys conducted by the Australian National …

Ua12/2/1 College Heights Herald, Vol. 65, No. 19, Wku Student Affairs

WKU Administration Documents

WKU campus newspaper reporting campus, athletic and Bowling Green, Kentucky news. This issue contains articles:

• Hernes, Thomas. Officials Seek Gift for Recreation Center – Preston Health & Activities Center
• Lawson, Jamie. Graduate Ron Jerrell Tells 400 His Story of AIDS
• Summers, Kaye & Allison Tutt. Hilltopper Athletic Foundation Raises Support, $660,000
• Summers, Kaye & Allison Tutt. Students, School Lend Services to Athletics
• Eugene Evans to Outline Goals at Open Forum
• Potter Lot Closed Until Tomorrow
• University Logo to be Unveiled Today
• Kinslow, Gina. Central Women Get Tucked In – Minton Hall, Barnes-Campbell Hall
• Green, Travis. Associated Student Government Wants AIDS …

Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Antibodies: High Prevalence In Monogamous Women In Costa Rica, Mark W. Oberle, Luis Rosero-Bixby, Francis K. Lee, Maria Sanchez-Braverman, A J. Nahmias, Mary Guinan

School of Public Health Faculty Research

We studied the prevalence of antibody to Herpes simplex virus types I and 2 (HSV-I and HSV-2) in 766 randomly selected Costa Rican women 25-59 years of age in a national household survey in 1984-1985. Overall, 97.1% were seropositive for HSV-l and 39.4% for HSV -2. Only 1.1% of HSV -2 seropositive women gave a history of symptomatic genital herpes. HSV-2 virus antibody increased with age and with the number of lifetime sexual partners. HSV -2 seroprevalence among women who reported only 1 lifetime sexual partner was almost twice as high as the prevalence among women who denied sexual experience …

Aids: Prophecy And Present Reality, Victor De Gruttola, William Ira Bennett

New England Journal of Public Policy

Mathematical modeling of the AIDS epidemic can be useful for policymakers even though precise projections are not possible at this time. Models are useful in establishing ranges for current and future prevalence of HIV infection and incidence of AIDS, as well as in predicting the effect of a given intervention strategy. Most decision makers are using models implicitly when they use epidemiological information as a basis for policy; formulating a model explicitly permits examination of the underlying assumptions. By creating and testing a variety of models, an investigator can determine whether the models reflect more the underlying assumptions or the …

Letter To The Editor (Human Immunodeficiency Virus In Costa Rica), Mark W. Oberle, Charles A. Schable, Mary Guinan, Luis Rosero

School of Public Health Faculty Research

Recent reports of 12 confirmed cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in Costa Rica have generated interest in the extent of spread of human T-lymphotropic virus type III/LAV (HTLV-III) in Latin America (1). To date, all cases of AIDS in Costa Rica have occurred in members of previously identified, high-risk groups, chiefly hemophiliacs. To examine the possibility of heterosexual transmission in Costa Rica, we utilized sera collected in a population-based case-control study of cervical cancer, conducted by the Costa Rican Demographic Association and other institution.

Ua37/30/2 Wku Research Notecards - H Topics, Lowell Harrison

Faculty/Staff Personal Papers

Notecards created by Lowell Harrison while researching his book Western Kentucky University. The cards transcribed are for 108 topics beginning with H ranging from Hail Storm to Hundred Club.

Heterosexual And Homosexual Patients With The Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome: A Comparison Of Surveillance, Interview, And Laboratory Data, Mary Guinan, Pauline A. Thomas, Paul F. Pinksy, James T. Goodrich, Richard M. Selik, H W. Jaffe, H W. Haverkos, Gary Noble, J W. Curran

School of Public Health Faculty Research

Homosexual and heterosexual patients with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome were compared by risk group. Race; diagnoses; history of sexually transmitted diseases, sexual behavior, and drug use; and socioeconomic indicators differed considerably among the risk groups, suggesting different risk factors for acquisition of the syndrome. Patients in the homosexual, intravenous drug user, and Haitian risk groups differed in their serologic response to cytomegalovirus and syphilis testing, presumably due to lifestyle-related exposures. Differences in the rate of recovery of cytomegalovirus, serum levels of IgA and IgG, and antibody titers to Epstein-Barr virus were noted among patients with different diagnoses. We conclude that …

National Case-Control Study Of Kaposi's Sarcoma And Pneumocystis Carinii Pneumonia In Homosexual Men: Part 1. Epidemiologic Results, Harold W. Jaffe, Keewhan Choi, Pauline A. Thomas, Harry W. Haverkos, David M. Auerbach, Mary E. Guinan, Martha F. Rogers, Thomas J. Spira, William W. Darrow, Mark A. Kramer, Stephen M. Friedman, James M. Monroe, Alvin E. Friedman-Kien, Linda J. Laubenstein, Michael Marmor, Bijan Safai, Selma K. Dritz, Salvatore J. Crispi, Shirley L. Fannin, John P. Orkwis, Alexander Kelter, Wilmon R. Rushing, Stephen B. Thacker, James W. Curran

School of Public Health Faculty Research

To identify risk factors for the occurrence of Kaposi's sarcoma and Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia in homosexual men, we conducted a case-control study in New York City, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Atlanta. Fifty patients (cases) (39 with Kaposi's sarcoma, 8 with pneumocystis pneumonia, and 3 with both) and 120 matched homosexual male controls (from sexually transmitted disease clinics and private medical practices) participated in the study. The variable most strongly associated with illness was a larger number of male sex partners per year (median, 61 for patients; 27 and 25 for clinic and private practice controls, respectively). Compared with controls, …

Ua3/1/2/1 Correspondence - Jones, Wku President's Office - Cherry

WKU Administration Documents

Letter from Mattie McLean to Ollie [Olive] Jones former mathematics teacher at WKU regarding appropriations, construction, former and current teachers at WKU and the diseases of measles, influenza, scarlet fever and smallpox.

Ua3/1/2/1 Correspondence - Bradner, Wku President's Office - Cherry

WKU Administration Documents

Letter from Mattie McLean to Mrs. G.W. Bradner regarding her son Raymond's bout with smallpox. The letter describes how students are quarantined in a building on the edge of campus for a period of time prescribed by doctors.

Ua3/1/2/2 Correspondence, Henry Cherry, K. L. Varney

WKU Administration Documents

Correspondence between Henry Cherry and K.L. Varney regarding a meeting scheduled and rescheduled due to the influenza epidemic. Cherry's letter discusses the conditions in Bowling Green and at Western Kentucky University.