Plastic Surgery Commons^™

Does Patient History Influence Capsular Contracture? An Exploratory Analysis With Machine Learning, Thomas M. Johnstone, Daniel Najafali, Jennifer K. Shaw, Justin M. Camacho, Chancellor Johnstone, Rahim S. Nazerali, Gordon K. Lee

Faculty Publications

Background: Capsular contracture (CC) is a frequent and distressing complication of breast augmentation and reconstruction. Although numerous patient-, surgical-, and implant-related risk factors have been proposed, reliable population-level predictors remain inconsistent across studies. This study evaluates whether administrative medical history, as encoded by ICD and CPT codes, contains sufficient predictive signal to identify patients at risk for CC using machine learning. Methods: Patients were queried from the MerativeTM MarketScan® Research Databases from 2003 to 2017 with CPT codes for implant-based breast reconstruction and augmentation. ICD codes were then used to identify all events and conditions of a patient’s history. Hyperparameter-tuned …