Virus Diseases Commons^™

Mathematical Models Of Covid-19, Kate Faria

Honors Program Theses and Projects

For more than a year, the COVID-19 pandemic has been a major public health issue, affecting the lives of most people around the world. With both people’s health and the economy at great risks, governments rushed to control the spread of the virus. Containment measures were heavily enforced worldwide until a vaccine was developed and distributed. Although researchers today know more about the characteristics of the virus, a lot of work still needs to be done in order to completely remove the disease from the population. However, this is true for most of the infectious diseases in existence, including Influenza, …

Social Distancing And Testing As Optimal Strategies Against The Spread Of Covid-19 In The Rio Grande Valley Of Texas, Kristina P. Vatcheva, Josef A. Sifuentes, Tamer Oraby, Jose E. Campo Maldonado, Timothy Huber, Cristina Villalobos

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

At the beginning of August 2020, the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) of Texas experienced a rapid increase of coronavirus disease 2019 (abbreviated as COVID-19) cases and deaths. This study aims to determine the optimal levels of effective social distancing and testing to slow the virus spread at the outset of the pandemic. We use an age-stratified eight compartment epidemiological model to depict COVID-19 transmission in the community and within households. With a simulated 120-day outbreak period data we obtain a post 180-days period optimal control strategy solution. Our results show that easing social distancing between adults by the end of …

Long-Term Dynamics Of The Kidney Disease Epidemic Among Hiv-Infected Individuals, Heather Gudaz, Henry A. Ogu, Elissa J. Schwartz

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

One of many risks facing HIV+ individuals is the development of kidney dysfunction and end stage kidney disease (ESKD). A differential equation-based mathematical model was developed to assess the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the progression to kidney disease and on reducing mortality due to kidney failure. Analytical and numerical predictions of long-term HIV+ ESKD prevalence show that therapy can lead to either extremely low levels of disease prevalence or increased prevalence, depending on drug efficacy levels and mechanisms of action. Maintenance of HIV+ ESKD prevalence below one individual is possible with sufficient efficacy (e.g., 99%) against the progression from …

Regression Analyses Assessing The Impact Of Environmental Factors On Covid-19 Transmission And Mortality, El Hussain Shamsa, Kezhong Zhang

Medical Student Research Symposium

No abstract provided.

Use Of Lymesim 2.0 To Assess The Potential For Single And Integrated Management Methods To Control Blacklegged Ticks (Ixodes Scapularis; Acari: Ixodidae) And Transmission Of Lyme Disease Spirochetes, Shravani Chitineni, Elizabeth R. Gleim, Holly D. Gaff

Undergraduate Honors Theses

Annual Lyme disease cases continue to rise in the U.S. making it the most reported vector-borne illness in the country. The pathogen (Borrelia burgdorferi) and primary vector (Ixodes scapularis; blacklegged tick) dynamics of Lyme disease are complicated by the multitude of vertebrate hosts and varying environmental factors, making models an ideal tool for exploring disease dynamics in a time- and cost-effective way. In the current study, LYMESIM 2.0, a mechanistic model, was used to explore the effectiveness of three commonly used tick control methods: habitat-targeted acaricide (spraying), rodent-targeted acaricide (bait boxes), and white-tailed deer targeted acaricide (4-poster …

Effect Of Mutation And Vaccination On Spread, Severity, And Mortality Of Covid-19 Disease, Dr Hossam Zawbaa, Hasnaa Osama, Ahmed El‐Gendy, Haitham Saeed, Hadeer S. Harb, Yasmin M. Madney, Mona Abdelrahman, Marwa Mohsen, Ahmed M.A. Ali, Mina Nicola, Marwa O. Elgendy, Ihab A. Ibrahim, Mohamed E.A. Abdelrahim

Articles

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had different waves within the same country. The spread rate and severity showed different properties within the COVID-19 different waves. The present work aims to compare the spread and the severity of the different waves using the available data of confirmed COVID-19 cases and death cases. Real-data sets collected from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science were used to perform a comparative study between COVID-19 different waves in 12 countries with the highest total performed tests for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 detection in the world (Italy, Brazil, Japan, Germany, Spain, India, …

A Model For Inhalation Of Infectious Aerosol Contaminants In An Aircraft Passenger Cabin, Bert A. Silich

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Aerosol contamination of an aircraft cabin by infectious passengers is a concern of passengers, aircrew and the aviation industry. This may be especially important during a pandemic, such as COVID-19, where the full extent of aerosol transmission is not well understood. A statistical method to determine the number of infectious passengers on board along with a mathematical model estimating the contaminant concentration of aerosols in the cabin and the number of inhaled infectious particles by passengers is presented. An example is used to demonstrated how the results can be estimated during normal operations and emergency conditions with malfunctions of the …

Nebulizer-Based Systems To Improve Pharmaceutical Aerosol Delivery To The Lungs, Benjamin M. Spence

Theses and Dissertations

Combining vibrating mesh nebulizers with additional new technologies leads to substantial improvements in pharmaceutical aerosol delivery to the lungs across therapeutic administration methods. In this dissertation, streamlined components, aerosol administration synchronization, and/or Excipient Enhanced Growth (EEG) technologies were utilized to develop and test several novel devices and aerosol delivery systems. The first focus of this work was to improve the poor delivery efficiency, e.g., 3.6% of nominal dose (Dugernier et al. 2017), of aerosolized medication administration to adult human subjects concurrent with high flow nasal cannula (HFNC) therapy, a form of continuous-flow non-invasive ventilation (NIV). The developed Low-Volume Mixer-Heater (LVMH) …

Applied Molecular Dynamics: From Targeting Viral Helicases, To Understanding The Interactions Of Cucurbituril Complexes In Ionic Solutions, Bryan Raubenolt

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

Molecular Dynamics simulations are a highly useful tool in helping understand the fundamental interactions present in a variety of chemical systems. The work discussed here illustrates it’s use in determining the conformational dynamics of the Zika and SARS-Cov-2 helicase in a physiological environment, largely in an effort to discover inhibitors capable of rendering the protein inert. Additionally, we show how it can be used to understand paradoxical trends in the anion-induced precipitation of Cucurbituril cavitands.

Viral helicases are motor proteins tasked with unwinding the viral dsRNA, a crucial step in preparing the strand to be translatable by host cells. By …

An Overview Of The Effect Of Bioaerosol Size In Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Marcelo I. Guzman

Chemistry Faculty Publications

The fast spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) constitutes a worldwide challenge to the public health, educational and trade systems, affecting the overall well-being of human societies. The high transmission and mortality rates of this virus, and the unavailability of a vaccine or treatment, resulted in the decision of multiple governments to enact measures of social distancing. Such measures can reduce the exposure to bioaerosols, which can result in pathogen deposition in the respiratory tract of the host causing disease and an immunological response. Thus, it is important to consider the validity of the proposal for keeping a distance of …

Understanding Of Aerosol Transmission Of Covid 19 In Indoor Environments, Adama Barro, Cathal O'Toole, Jacob S. Lopez, Matthew Quinones, Sherene Moore

Publications and Research

Our reason for discussing severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or 2019 novel corona virus (Covid-19), is to understand its aerosol transmission characteristics in indoor spaces and to mitigate further spread of this disease by designing a new HVAC system. The problem that we are tackling is the spread of covid-19 droplets through aerosol transmission by looking at potential engineering solutions to the existing HVAC systems. The purpose is to eradicate the spread of the COVID-19 by testing indoor spaces in an effort to understand the effectiveness of ventilation controls. We believe that scientists and engineers have not …

Mathematical Modeling And Analysis Of The Zika Virus Epidemic With Human Mobility And Parameter Estimation For Localities In Puerto Rico, Carmen Caiseda

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Assess The Impacts Of Human Mobility Change On Covid-19 Using Differential Equations With Google Community Mobility Data, Nao Yamamoto

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Mathematical Modelling And In Silico Experimentation To Estimate The Quantity Of Covid-19 Infected Individuals In Tijuana, México, Karla A. Encinas, Luis N. Coria, Paul A. Valle

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Coevolution, Dynamics And Allostery Conspire In Shaping Cooperative Binding And Signal Transmission Of The Sars-Cov-2 Spike Protein With Human Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2, Gennady M. Verkhivker

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Binding to the host receptor is a critical initial step for the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to enter into target cells and trigger virus transmission. A detailed dynamic and energetic view of the binding mechanisms underlying virus entry is not fully understood and the consensus around the molecular origins behind binding preferences of SARS-CoV-2 for binding with the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) host receptor is yet to be established. In this work, we performed a comprehensive computational investigation in which sequence analysis and modeling of coevolutionary networks are combined with atomistic molecular simulations and comparative binding free energy analysis of …

Covid-19 And Quantitative Literacy: Focusing On Probability, Michael A. Lewis

Numeracy

The COVID-19 pandemic is arguably the worst crisis the world has faced, so far, in this new century. We haven’t seen a pandemic like this since the 1918 Flu at the beginning of the last century, and, as of this writing, there appears to be no end in sight. What those of us who’re focused on quantitative methods have noticed, in addition to the many people dying, becoming ill, and losing their livelihoods, is the importance of quantitative literacy to an understanding of what’s going on. That’s what this article is about. Specifically, it’s about how the COVID-19 pandemic is …

Investigating The Significance Of Aerosols In Determining The Coronavirus Fatality Rate Among Three European Countries, Wenzhao Li, Rejoice Thomas, Hesham El-Askary, Thomas Piechota, Daniele Struppa, Khaled A. Abdel Ghaffar

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

The coronavirus pandemic has not only gripped the scientific community in the search for a vaccine or a cure but also in attempts using statistics and association analysis—to identify environmental factors that increase its potency. A study by Ogen (Sci Total Environ 726:138605, 2020a) explored the possible correlation between coronavirus fatality and high nitrogen dioxide exposure in four European countries—France, Germany, Italy and Spain. Meanwhile, another study showed the importance of nitrogen dioxide along with population density in determining the coronavirus pandemic rate in England. In this follow-up study, Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) was introduced in conjunction with other variables …

Examining The Intersection Of Environmental Justice, Chronic Disease, And Pandemics; How A Mobile Health App Could Improve Health Outcomes And Inform Policy, Jessica Snow

Master's Projects and Capstones

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the intersection of environmental justice, chronic disease and illness, and pandemics. The inequitable distribution of polluting factories, landfills, and hazardous waste sites have been a long-standing concern in the field of environmental justice. Local zoning codes and land use policies have been tools for segregating people and concentrating pollution in low-income communities and communities of color. Many studies have found that pollution varies among racial and minority groups, and the burden of pollution is not one that is evenly shared. Communities of color and low income communities are disproportionately affected by air …

484— Modeling Social Distancing Methods And Their Effectiveness In Combating The Spread Of Ebola, Rachel Fair

GREAT Day Posters

Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is a rare but severe disease that is transmitted among humans through direct-contact with, and close proximity to, infected bodily fluids. From 2014-16, West Africa experienced the largest Ebola outbreak ever recorded, infecting over 28,000 people, and killing over 11,000. Although the symptoms of EVD are treatable, the disease can be extremely deadly, with an average of 50% EVD cases resulting in fatality. In areas where healthcare is scarce and vaccinations are not readily available, the practices of social distancing and self-quarantining have been shown to be highly effective in combating the spread of EVD. To …

Information Mining For Covid-19 Research From A Large Volume Of Scientific Literature, Sabber Ahamed, Manar D. Samad

Computer Science Faculty Research

The year 2020 has seen an unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic due to the outbreak of a novel strain of coronavirus in 180 countries. In a desperate effort to discover new drugs and vaccines for COVID-19, many scientists are working around the clock. Their valuable time and effort may benefit from computer-based mining of a large volume of health science literature that is a treasure trove of information. In this paper, we have developed a graph-based model using abstracts of 10,683 scientific articles to find key information on three topics: transmission, drug types, and genome research related to coronavirus. A subgraph is …

Two (Or More) Viruses In One Bat: A Systematic Quantitative Literature Review Of Viral Coinfection In Bats, Eli J. Kaufman

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Viral coinfection is an important topic in pathogen dynamics, and can increase viral shedding and change disease outcomes. As bats are carriers of important zoonoses, such as the SARS coronaviruses, rabies, and other deadly viruses, knowing more about their coinfection dynamics is important. This quantitative systematic literature review sought to show how many papers reported bat viral coinfections, and created three databases. The first database, the SQLR database was based on searches for coinfections. The second database, the Astrovirus database was to determine how much of the literature was being missed by examining a single viral family more in depth …

Ua12/2/1 College Heights Herald, Vol. 95, No. 18, Wku Student Affairs

WKU Administration Documents

WKU campus newspaper reporting campus, athletic and Bowling Green, Kentucky news. This issue contains articles:

• Lamb, Cassady. Posted Up: Local Apartment Complexes Are Suing the United States Post Office
• Williams, Matthew. WKU to be Evaluated by Higher Education Consulting Firm
• Collins, Michael. Strategic Sustainability Plan to be Developed
• Stack, Madalyn. Editorial Cartoon re: Racism
• Black History Month: Past & Present
• Warner, Casey. Kentucky Canabis Laws Are Behind the Times – Marijuana
• Dobbs, Jack. Bitter Sweet – Chocolate Festival, Hospice of Southern Kentucky
• Metcalf, Taylor. Fast Fashion
• Lowe, Julianna. Sustainable On-campus Bathroom Practices, In Public or Private
• Gaylord, Kaden. WKU Softball …

Urban Food Sovereignty: Urgent Need For Agroecology And Systems Thinking In A Post-Covid-19 Future, Ali Loker, Charles A. Francis

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

The current COVID-19 pandemic has brought attention to challenges associated with our dominant industrial food system in the U.S. The general public now has more appreciation for farm workers and meatpacking employees, as well as those in grocery stores and in food transportation who are suddenly recognized as essential frontline workers. It apparently takes a crisis for us to focus clearly on the fragility of this system and the lives of people on whom we depend. In this commentary we discuss the definition of food sovereignty, how it manifests in urban areas, and how the COVID-19 pandemic can trigger viable …

Exposition Aux Bioaérosols Dans Les Centres De Traitement Des Eaux Usées : Application D’Approches Moléculaires Et Risque Viral, Caroline Duchaine, Marc Veillette, Vanessa Dion Dupont, Hamza Mbareche, Évelyne Brisebois, Jacques Lavoie, Yves Beaudet

Rapports de recherche scientifique

Le traitement des eaux usées comporte plusieurs étapes susceptibles de générer des bioaérosols auxquels des travailleurs peuvent être exposés. Bien que la littérature à ce sujet soit relativement abondante, les connaissances relatives au risque, à l’exposition et à la fréquence de certaines maladies chez cette population demeurent mal documentées. L’environnement des centres de traitement des eaux usées est complexe à plusieurs égards. En effet, les différents sites de traitement représentent des risques variables en ce qui a trait à la nature et à la concentration des bioaérosols, ainsi qu’au type de travail effectué. La majorité des études s’intéressant à cette …

An Analysis Of The Rajasthan Public Health System’S Response To The 2019 Dengue Insurgence, Luke Bryan

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Dengue virus is in a pandemic status and is a major public health issue in the modern world. The mosquito-borne disease is largely prevalent in Asia and specifically India, where more than half of the states are considered to have complete presence of the dengue virus. The intricate infrastructure of the Indian public health system looks for dengue cases at all levels and reports to the integrated disease surveillance programme (IDSP).

Analyses of the IDSP and trends of dengue cases was done in response to dengue outbreaks throughout the state. Geographic information system (GIS) maps were created to evaluate a …

Large Scale Dynamical Model Of Macrophage/Hiv Interactions, Sean T. Bresnahan, Matthew M. Froid

UNO Student Research and Creative Activity Fair

Properties emerge from the dynamics of large-scale molecular networks that are not discernible at the individual gene or protein level. Mathematical models - such as probabilistic Boolean networks - of molecular systems offer a deeper insight into how these emergent properties arise. Here, we introduce a non-linear, deterministic Boolean model of protein, gene, and chemical interactions in human macrophage cells during HIV infection. Our model is composed of 713 nodes with 1583 interactions between nodes and is responsive to 38 different inputs including signaling molecules, bacteria, viruses, and HIV viral particles. Additionally, the model accurately simulates the dynamics of over …

Conformational Flexibility In The Enterovirus Rna Replication Platform, Meghan S. Warden, Kai Cai, Gabriel Cornilescu, Jordan E. Burke, Komala Ponniah, Samuel E. Butcher, Steven M. Pascal

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

A presumed RNA cloverleaf (5′CL), located at the 5′-most end of the noncoding region of the enterovirus genome, is the primary established site for initiation of genomic replication. Stem–loop B (SLB) and stem–loop D (SLD), the two largest stem–loops within the 5′CL, serve as recognition sites for protein interactions that are essential for replication. Here we present the solution structure of rhinovirus serotype 14 5′CL using a combination of nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and small-angle X-ray scattering. In the absence of magnesium, the structure adopts an open, somewhat extended conformation. In the presence of magnesium, the structure compacts, bringing SLB …

Modeling The Influenza Virus Infection In A Host: Consideration Of Semi-Infectious Particles, Alex P. Farrell, Ruian Ke

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Modeling Hcv Interactions With P53: Implications For Carcinogenesis, Harsh Jain

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Chikungunya: India, Allison Harvey

Global Issues in Public Health

A communicable disease is an infectious disease, transmissible by direct contact with an affected individual or the individual’s discharges, or by indirect means. The more direct contact people have, the more disease spreads explaining why larger populations have more outbreaks of communicable diseases. India, in particular, has one of the biggest population sizes and makes them susceptible to those diseases. Many can be fatal. However, other diseases, such as chikungunya, are also dangerous viruses that put specific populations at risk for health problems if infected. With chikungunya symptoms such as fever or rashes may develop. Some symptoms such as joint …