Disease Modeling Commons^™

Mathematical Modelling Of Disease Outbreak, Favour Christian, Matthew Molloy

SURE Journal: Science Undergraduate Research Experience Journal

Establishing a model framework for more research necessitates a thorough understanding of the causes, distribution, prevalence, and evolution of infectious illnesses. The main mathematical concept used in this modelling simulation is ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The purpose of this study was to investigate the significance of the many criteria linked to a zombie virus spread. The zombie framework provides an accessible and relatively simple representation of the nature of infectious disease spread, allowing for tractable assumptions and the development of more complex situations.

The models are designed around a zombie outbreak in which the zombie virus is spread through a …

An Odd-Protocol For Agent-Based Model For The Spread Of Covid-19 In Ireland, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Reports

No abstract provided.

The Effects Of Differences In Vaccination Rates Across Socioeconomic Groups On The Size Of Measles Outbreaks, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Conference papers

Vaccination rates are often presented at the level of a country or region. However, within those areas there might be geographic or demographic pockets that have higher or lower vaccination rates. We use an agent-based model designed to simulate the spread of measles in Irish towns to examine if the effectiveness of vaccination rates to reduce disease at a population level is sensitive to the uniformity of vaccinations across socioeconomic groups. We find that when vaccinations are not applied evenly across socioeconomic groups we see more outbreaks and outbreaks with larger magnitudes.

Using A Hybrid Agent-Based And Equation Based Model To Test School Closure Policies During A Measles Outbreak, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Articles

Background

In order to be prepared for an infectious disease outbreak it is important to know what interventions will or will not have an impact on reducing the outbreak. While some interventions might have a greater effect in mitigating an outbreak, others might only have a minor effect but all interventions will have a cost in implementation. Estimating the effectiveness of an intervention can be done using computational modelling. In particular, comparing the results of model runs with an intervention in place to control runs where no interventions were used can help to determine what interventions will have the greatest …

A Hybrid Agent-Based And Equation Based Model For The Spread Of Infectious Diseases, Elizabeth Hunter, Brian Mac Namee, John D. Kelleher

Articles

Both agent-based models and equation-based models can be used to model the spread of an infectious disease. Equation-based models have been shown to capture the overall dynamics of a disease outbreak while agent-based models are able to capture heterogeneous characteristics of agents that drive the spread of an outbreak. However, agent-based models are computationally intensive. To capture the advantages of both the equation-based and agent-based models, we create a hybrid model where the disease component of the hybrid model switches between agent-based and equation-based. The switch is determined using the number of agents infected. We first test the model at …

A Model For The Spread Of Infectious Diseases In A Region, Elizabeth Hunter, Brian Mac Namee, John D. Kelleher

Articles

In understanding the dynamics of the spread of an infectious disease, it is important to understand how a town’s place in a network of towns within a region will impact how the disease spreads to that town and from that town. In this article, we take a model for the spread of an infectious disease in a single town and scale it up to simulate a region containing multiple towns. The model is validated by looking at how adding additional towns and commuters influences the outbreak in a single town. We then look at how the centrality of a town …

Simulating Within-Vector Generation Of The Malaria Parasite Diversity, Lauren M. Childs, Olivia F. Prosper

Mathematics Faculty Publications

Plasmodium falciparum, the most virulent human malaria parasite, undergoes asexual reproduction within the human host, but reproduces sexually within its vector host, the Anopheles mosquito. Consequently, the mosquito stage of the parasite life cycle provides an opportunity to create genetically novel parasites in multiply-infected mosquitoes, potentially increasing parasite population diversity. Despite the important implications for disease transmission and malaria control, a quantitative mapping of how parasite diversity entering a mosquito relates to diversity of the parasite exiting, has not been undertaken. To examine the role that vector biology plays in modulating parasite diversity, we develop a two-part model framework …