Disease Modeling Commons^™

Modeling The Effect Of Human Behavior On Disease Transmission, Katie Yan

Rose-Hulman Undergraduate Mathematics Journal

Many infectious disease models build upon the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, a compartmental system that is used to simulate disease transmission in a population. The SIR model focuses on the transmission of disease but rarely includes behavioral or informational components that explore how disease perception influences transmission. In this paper, we propose a six-compartment behavioral SIR model that further segments the classic SIR system based on knowledge of information about the disease, and we explore how sharing information affects disease transmission. We designate two states as aware and unaware based on whether the relevant information is known by the population. …

“Pandemias Políticas: The Effects Of Political And Social Instability On Infectious Disease Epidemiology In Latin America"”, Sarah H. Noonan

Senior Theses

This paper seeks to analyze the relationship between political and social unrest and conflict and infectious disease epidemiology in Latin America. An analysis of published literature regarding epidemiological, biomedical, political, and historical content was conducted to highlight potential connections between infectious disease epidemics and sociopolitical conflict in the region. Specific analyses of Smallpox, Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis, Chagas disease, Cholera, Dengue, and COVID-19 were conducted, in an effort to uncover potential causations and context of epidemics of these conditions. Results of this analysis depict a necessity for further research into public health and disease control mechanisms during times of conflict and …

An Odd-Protocol For Agent-Based Model For The Spread Of Covid-19 In Ireland, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Reports

No abstract provided.

The Effects Of Differences In Vaccination Rates Across Socioeconomic Groups On The Size Of Measles Outbreaks, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Conference papers

Vaccination rates are often presented at the level of a country or region. However, within those areas there might be geographic or demographic pockets that have higher or lower vaccination rates. We use an agent-based model designed to simulate the spread of measles in Irish towns to examine if the effectiveness of vaccination rates to reduce disease at a population level is sensitive to the uniformity of vaccinations across socioeconomic groups. We find that when vaccinations are not applied evenly across socioeconomic groups we see more outbreaks and outbreaks with larger magnitudes.

Using A Hybrid Agent-Based And Equation Based Model To Test School Closure Policies During A Measles Outbreak, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Articles

Background

In order to be prepared for an infectious disease outbreak it is important to know what interventions will or will not have an impact on reducing the outbreak. While some interventions might have a greater effect in mitigating an outbreak, others might only have a minor effect but all interventions will have a cost in implementation. Estimating the effectiveness of an intervention can be done using computational modelling. In particular, comparing the results of model runs with an intervention in place to control runs where no interventions were used can help to determine what interventions will have the greatest …

A Model For The Spread Of Infectious Diseases In A Region, Elizabeth Hunter, Brian Mac Namee, John D. Kelleher

Articles

In understanding the dynamics of the spread of an infectious disease, it is important to understand how a town’s place in a network of towns within a region will impact how the disease spreads to that town and from that town. In this article, we take a model for the spread of an infectious disease in a single town and scale it up to simulate a region containing multiple towns. The model is validated by looking at how adding additional towns and commuters influences the outbreak in a single town. We then look at how the centrality of a town …

A Study Of Cholera Transmission, Urmi Ghosh-Dastidar

Open Educational Resources

A recent cholera outbreak in Haiti brought public attention to this disease. Cholera, a diarrheal disease, is caused by an intestinal bacterium, and if not addressed in a timely manner may become fatal. During the project described here, the students will learn how to solve and address a practical problem such as cholera transmission using various mathematical tools. Students will learn to develop a differential equation model based on practical scenarios, analyze the model using mathematics as well as numerical simulation, and finally describe the results in words that are understandable by the people who are not specialists in this …

A Comparison Of Agent-Based Models And Equation Based Models For Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Elizabeth Hunter, Brian Mac Namee, John D. Kelleher

Articles

There are two main methods that are used to model the spread of an infectious disease: agent-based modelling and equation based modelling. In this paper, we compare the results from an example implementation of each method, and show that although the agent-based model takes longer to setup and run, it provides additional information that is not available when using an equation based model. Specifically, the ability of the agent-based model to capture heterogeneous mixing and agent interactions enables it to give a better overall view of an outbreak. We compare the performance of both models by simulating a measles outbreak …

A Hypothesis Test For The End Of A Common Source Outbreak, Ron Brookmeyer, Xiaojun You

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

The objective of this paper is to develop a hypothesis testing procedure to determine whether a common source outbreak has ended. We do not assume that the calendar date of exposure to the pathogen is known. We assume an underlying parametric model for the incubation period distribution of a 2-paramter exponential model with a guarantee time, although the parameters are not assumed to be known. The hypothesis testing procedure is based on the spacings between ordered calendar dates of disease onset of the cases. A simulation study was performed to evaluate the robustness of the methods to a lognormal model …