Disease Modeling Commons^™

A Mathematical Model For Managing Diphtheria Outbreaks In Nigeria Via Vaccination, Enhanced Surveillance, Effective Quarantine, And Social Distancing Measures, Hycienth Ortser Orapine, Nyiutya Cephas Ine, Dekera Jacob Washachi, Ali Audu Baidu, Lubem Matthew Kwaghkor

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

Diphtheria is a highly infectious respiratory and skin disease that poses a significant threat to global public health. In Nigeria, children and adults with low immunity remain at high risk due to recurring annual outbreaks in the last decade, with a death rate of as high as 68.8\%. This paper presents a deterministic compartmental model to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions implemented by the Nigerian government. The model's mathematical and epidemiological validity is established through proofs of non-negativity and boundedness. The basic reproduction number ($R_0$) is derived, and stability analysis confirms that the diphtheria-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically …

Tumor–Immune Dynamics With Memory And Time Delay: A Fractional-Order Model With Ctla-4 Regulation, Mutaz Mohammad, Mohyeedden Sweidan, Alexander Trounev, Fathalla Rihan

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

This study develops a fractional-order tumor-immune interaction model incorporating Caputo memory effects, delayed immune activation, and CTLA-4 checkpoint regulation. The model describes the coupled dynamics of tumor cells, CD4$^{+}$ T cells, IFN-$\gamma$, and CTLA-4, and extends classical integer-order tumor-immune models by accounting for hereditary immune responses and biologically motivated latency effects. Theoretical properties, including positivity, boundedness, equilibrium structure, and fractional-order stability, are examined to establish the biological and mathematical consistency of the model. The delayed fractional system is then investigated computationally by comparing several numerical methods, including finite difference discretization, Daubechies wavelet collocation, Euler wavelet collocation, and a predictor-corrector scheme. …

Oral Pathogens Reprogram Endothelial Barrier And Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme2/Endothelial Nitric Oxide Synthase-Nitric Oxide Signaling To Promote Blood Pressure Dysregulation, Ming-Shou Hsieh, Tung-Nien Hsu, Chin-Sheng Huang, Ting-Yi Renn, Kuang-Tai Kuo, Kuo-Yao Lin, Wei Jen Chang

Journal of Dental Sciences

Background/purpose: Although periodontal disease is associated with an increased risk of hypertension, the endothelial mechanisms linking oral inflammation to vascular dysfunction remain unclear. We investigated whether Porphyromonas gingivalis lipopolysaccharide (Pg-LPS) can directly disturb endothelial homeostasis and whether macrophage–endothelial crosstalk further worsens endothelial injury.

Materials and methods: Human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) were exposed to Pg-LPS alone or co-cultured (transwell system) with Pg-LPS-primed human monocytic cells -derived macrophages. Endothelial dysfunction was assessed through nitric oxide (NO) production, endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) phosphorylation, inflammatory and adhesion molecule expression, as well as junctional and cytoskeletal changes. Macrophage …

A Novel Mathematical Model Of Hiv Transmission Incorporating The Effects Of Treatment And Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis: Sensitivity Analysis And Numerical Simulations, Erick Manuel Delgado Moya

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) continues to be a public health problem in many countries of the world, and Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a preventive method for HIV, which has shown great efficacy and is in use worldwide. This work presents a new mathematical model for HIV transmission incorporating PrEP use and evaluates the impact of PrEP along with its increasing use in a population. The construction of the model takes into account three forms of diagnosis: diagnosis of individuals in risky sexual contact, diagnosis after risky contact (diagnosis in the undiagnosed infected compartment), and diagnosis associated with attempting to enter …

Mathematical Modelling Of Disease Outbreak, Favour Christian, Matthew Molloy

SURE Journal: Science Undergraduate Research Experience Journal

Establishing a model framework for more research necessitates a thorough understanding of the causes, distribution, prevalence, and evolution of infectious illnesses. The main mathematical concept used in this modelling simulation is ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The purpose of this study was to investigate the significance of the many criteria linked to a zombie virus spread. The zombie framework provides an accessible and relatively simple representation of the nature of infectious disease spread, allowing for tractable assumptions and the development of more complex situations.

The models are designed around a zombie outbreak in which the zombie virus is spread through a …

Modeling The Effect Of Human Behavior On Disease Transmission, Katie Yan

Rose-Hulman Undergraduate Mathematics Journal

Many infectious disease models build upon the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, a compartmental system that is used to simulate disease transmission in a population. The SIR model focuses on the transmission of disease but rarely includes behavioral or informational components that explore how disease perception influences transmission. In this paper, we propose a six-compartment behavioral SIR model that further segments the classic SIR system based on knowledge of information about the disease, and we explore how sharing information affects disease transmission. We designate two states as aware and unaware based on whether the relevant information is known by the population. …

Modeling An Infection Outbreak With Quarantine: The Sibkr Model, Mikenna Dew, Amanda Langosch, Theadora Baker-Wallerstein

Rose-Hulman Undergraduate Mathematics Journal

Influenza is a respiratory infection that places a substantial burden in the world population each year. In this project, we study and interpret a data set from a flu outbreak in a British boarding school in 1978 with mathematical modeling. First, we propose a generalization of the SIR model based on the quarantine measure in place and establish the long-time behavior of the model. By analyzing the model mathematically, we determine the analytic formulas of the basic reproduction number, the long-time limit of solutions, and the maximum number of infection population. Moreover, we estimate the parameters of the model based …

A Tale Of Two Viruses: Why Smallpox Was Eradicated And Polio Persists, Katherine G. Mcgough, Erin N. Bodine

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

The smallpox and poliomyelitis (polio) viruses were, at a time, one of the largest threats to global public health killing millions until global eradication campaigns were put into effect. Vaccination led to the eradication of smallpox and the elimination of polio for most of the world. However, polio continues to persist at endemic levels in Pakistan and Afghanistan. We developed ODE models of smallpox and polio to explore differences in transmission dynamics and determine if the underlying biology has made poliomyelitis more difficult to eradicate. Our model analysis shows there are multiple factors which should allow polio to have a …

Regulation Of Mirnas In Obesity And Diabetes, Eva Maher, Ava O'Meara, Cathy Brougham

SURE Journal: Science Undergraduate Research Experience Journal

Introduction: The prevalence of obesity and obesity-related secondary disorders has increased dramatically in recent years. Dysregulated microRNA (miRNA) expression has been linked to the development of obesity and its associated disorders. Adipose derived stem cells (ADSCs) are promising cell models of obesity, obesity-related inflammation and diabetes. Furthermore, miRNA expression profiles have emerged as promising targets for the novel treatment of diseases such as obesity. In order to enhance miRNA-based therapies, the miRNA expression profile of obesity and its related disorders must be monitored to further understand the underlying mechanisms of obesity and to identify novel targets.

Aim: The aim of …

An Investigation Of Mitigation Measures On The Spread Of Covid-19 In A College Classroom Using Agent-Based Modeling, Saharsh Talwar, Anne E. Yust

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

In this manuscript, we describe the process of using agent-based modeling in NetLogo to create a simulation of COVID-19 spread in a traditional college classroom. The model allows for an evaluation of different preventative measures implemented by the University of Pittsburgh, including the cohort classroom attendance model, mask and vaccine mandates, contact tracing, and classroom sanitation. Through the use of the model's interactive interface, the impact of adjusting specific measures by the institution could be visualized, providing a valuable tool for combating diseases that spread through droplet transmission.

Protective Effect Of Betulinic Acid Administration On Kidney Damage In Acetaminophen-Induced Nephrotoxicity Model, Eda Dokumacioglu, Hatice İskender, Armagan Hayirli, Guler Yenice, Kubra Asena Terim Kapakin, Ismail Bolat, Esra Manavoglu Kirman

Makara Journal of Health Research

Background: Acetaminophen (APAP) is the most widely used analgesic drug worldwide, but it may induce renal toxicity. Betulinic acid (BA) ameliorates the oxidative stress and inflammatory response to renal damage. The present study aimed to investigate the potential protective effects of BA treatment through an experimental kidney damage rat model administered with APAP.

Methods: Sprague–Dawley male rats were randomly divided into four groups: control, BA (25 mg/kg for 15 days), APAP (1 g/kg), and APAP + BA groups. BA was administered via oral gavage at a dose of 25 mg/kg for 15 days. APAP was dissolved in hot …

Modeling Immune System Dynamics During Hiv Infection And Treatment With Differential Equations, Nicole Rychagov

CODEE Journal

An inquiry-based project that discusses immune system dynamics during HIV infection using differential equations is presented. The complex interactions between healthy T-cells, latently infected T-cells, actively infected T-cells, and the HIV virus are modeled using four nonlinear differential equations. The model is adapted to simulate long term HIV dynamics, including the AIDS state, and is used to simulate the long term effects of the traditional antiretroviral therapy (ART). The model is also used to test viral rebound over time of combined application of ART and a new drug that blocks the reactivation of the viral genome in the infected cells …

Establishment Of An In Vivo Streptozotocin-Induced Type 1 Diabetes Model Recapitulating Early Brain And Retinal Fibrosis, Kia Bourdot, Lucy Dawson, Igor Kuzin, Arturo Bravo Nuevo, Zeus Antonello

Cooper Rowan Medical Journal

INTRODUCTION: Diabetes has risen to one of the top American public health concerns. The hyperglycemic state of chronic diabetes leads to microvascular and macrovascular changes that predispose patients to delayed wound healing and organ fibrosis. The validation of models to specifically detect early, quantifiable fibrotic changes seen in the diabetic state is of fundamental importance for understanding the diabetic pathophysiology and exploring earlier management options. Here, we investigated if we could detect early signs of internal fibrosis in a streptozotocin (STZ) diabetic mouse model by quantifying α-SMA expression in various organs using flow cytometry.

METHODS: We used a low-dose STZ-induced …

Cost Analysis Of Implementing An Exercise Program For Fall And Fracture Prevention In Older Adults On Proton Pump Inhibitor Therapy, Thomas Adam Wichelmann, Nhan Dang, David H. Kruchko, Sufyan Abdulmujeeb, Eli D. Ehrenpreis

Journal of Patient-Centered Research and Reviews

Purpose: Falls have significant financial impact. Proton pump inhibitor (PPI) therapy is associated with an increased risk of falls and fractures. Exercise programs have been shown to decrease risk of falls in the elderly population and are recommended by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force for patients over age 65 to reduce falls. Our study aimed to explore the potential financial benefit of implementing three different Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-recommended exercise-based interventions for fall prevention (Tai Chi, Stepping On, and Otago Exercise Program) in ≥ 65-year-old patients on PPI therapy.

Methods: A Markov model was developed to predict …

Antibacterial And Anti-Hiv-1 Gp120 Activities Of Selected Medicinal Plants, Rose J. Masalu, Cyprian B. Mpinda

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

Medicinal plants play an important role in traditional medicine and drug development research because of their numerous bioactivities. However, some concerns have risen on the inefficiencies of such products due to improper use of medicinal plant products, notably when mixed with other traditional remedies. This study evaluates the antibacterial and anti-human immunodeficiency virus 1 glycoprotein 120/CD4 (anti-HIV-1 GP120/CD4) activities of medicinal plants species Sapium ellipticum, Pseudospondias microcarpa, and Capparis erythrocarpos; and their respective combinations effects. Results revealed that aqueous and ethyl acetate extracts of S. ellipticum and P. microcarpa had antimicrobial activities against S. aureus (ATCC 25923), E. coli (ATCC …

A Multidisciplinary Collaboration Between Graphic Design And Physics Classes Responding To Covid-19, Szilvia Kadas, Eric M. Edlund

The SUNY Journal of the Scholarship of Engagement: JoSE

Students from graphic design and physics classes at SUNY Cortland collaborated during the spring semester of 2020 on a multidisciplinary project related to the COVID-19 pandemic. In these collaborations, the students’ individual contributions were part of a larger project that required a diverse skill set, through which students learned how different skills can complement their own disciplines. The graphic design and physics instructors applied a project-based learning philosophy applying the Common Problem Pedagogy (CPP) framework to construct student-teams composed of both disciplines. This project explored how coordinated social actions can allow the public to exercise control in uncertain times. Students …

Mathematical Modeling, Analysis, And Simulation Of The Covid-19 Pandemic With Behavioral Patterns And Group Mixing, Comfort Ohajunwa, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

Due to the rise of COVID-19 cases, many mathematical models have been developed to study the disease dynamics of the virus. However, despite its role in the spread of COVID-19, many SEIR models neglect to account for human behavior. In this project, we develop a novel mathematical modeling framework for studying the impact of mixing patterns and social behavior on the spread of COVID-19. Specifically, we consider two groups, one exhibiting normal behavior who do not reduce their contacts and another exhibiting altered behavior who reduce their contacts by practicing non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing and self-isolation. The dynamics …

Prophylactic Phage Therapy In Infant Rabbits Model Of Cholera, Sadeq Ag Kaabi Asst Prof Dr

Karbala International Journal of Modern Science

A number of 8 phages lytic of V. cholerae O1- biotype-EI-Tor, serotype Inaba were selected for the formulation of a phage cocktail. A phage cocktail composed of 8 phages was prepared and showed 100% inhibition of V. cholerae isolates comparing with a percentage ranged from 0-75% for every single phage in growth inhibition assay. The potential activity of phage cocktail of prophylactic therapy for infant rabbits model of cholera was evaluated through phage retention time and length of phage prophylaxis studies. Results have been showed that phage cocktail was potent in the prevention of development of cholera in infant rabbits …

Non-Selective Primary Human Tumor Cell Line Generation From Surgical Resections To Be Paired With Flash Frozen And Paraffin Embedded Tissue: Advancements In Democratizing Translational Research Materials To Rural Institutions, Jennifer Hawkins, Rebecca Russell, Logan M. Lawrence, Amrita Valluri, Jessica Wellman, Krista Denning

Marshall Journal of Medicine

Translational cancer research relies on the availability of human patient tissue demonstrating the specific disease process under investigation. Biobanks of human tissue have historically been and remain to date the primary access point for cancer research samples. Biorepositories routinely supply researchers with varying sample types for use in biomedical studies; most commonly formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue, or fresh snap-frozen tissue. In conjunction with preserved tissue samples, viable tumor cell lines derived from patient tissue have emerged to be a new gold standard in cancer research particularly in drug discovery and functional prognostic assays. Tissue banks providing these samples are …

Predicting Tumor Response To Radiotherapy Based On Estimation Of Non-Treatment Parameters, Yutian Huang, Allison L. Lewis

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

Though clinicians can now collect detailed information about a variety of tumor characteristics as a tumor evolves, it remains difficult to predict the efficacy of a given treatment prior to administration. Additionally, the process of data collection may be invasive and expensive. Thus, the creation of a framework for predicting patient response to treatment using only information collected prior to the start of treatment could be invaluable. In this study, we employ ordinary differential equation models for tumor growth and utilize synthetic data from a cellular automaton model for calibration. We investigate which parameters have the most influence upon treatment …

Long-Term Dynamics Of The Kidney Disease Epidemic Among Hiv-Infected Individuals, Heather Gudaz, Henry A. Ogu, Elissa J. Schwartz

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

One of many risks facing HIV+ individuals is the development of kidney dysfunction and end stage kidney disease (ESKD). A differential equation-based mathematical model was developed to assess the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the progression to kidney disease and on reducing mortality due to kidney failure. Analytical and numerical predictions of long-term HIV+ ESKD prevalence show that therapy can lead to either extremely low levels of disease prevalence or increased prevalence, depending on drug efficacy levels and mechanisms of action. Maintenance of HIV+ ESKD prevalence below one individual is possible with sufficient efficacy (e.g., 99%) against the progression from …

A Model For Inhalation Of Infectious Aerosol Contaminants In An Aircraft Passenger Cabin, Bert A. Silich

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Aerosol contamination of an aircraft cabin by infectious passengers is a concern of passengers, aircrew and the aviation industry. This may be especially important during a pandemic, such as COVID-19, where the full extent of aerosol transmission is not well understood. A statistical method to determine the number of infectious passengers on board along with a mathematical model estimating the contaminant concentration of aerosols in the cabin and the number of inhaled infectious particles by passengers is presented. An example is used to demonstrated how the results can be estimated during normal operations and emergency conditions with malfunctions of the …

A Mathematical Model For The Effect Of Social Distancing On The Spread Of Covid-19, Anna Singley, Hannah Callender Highlander

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

Social distancing is an effective method of impeding the spread of a novel disease such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), but is dependent on public involvement and is susceptible to failure when sectors of the population fail to participate. A standard SIR model is largely incapable of modeling differences in a population due to the broad generalizations it makes such as uniform mixing and homogeneity of hosts, which results in lost detail and accuracy when modeling heterogeneous populations. By further compartmentalizing an SIR model, via the separation of people within susceptible and infected groups, we can more …

Intensive Animal Farming Conditions Are A Major Threat To Global Health, Cynthia Schuck-Paim

Animal Sentience

Wiebers & Feigin accurately propose that reducing the risks posed by infectious disease outbreaks and other global health challenges will depend critically on transitioning away from intensive animal farming practices. Creating the right incentive structure for this transition to happen is one of the great challenges in the years to come, but a much-needed step to ensure the health and well-being of current and future generations.

The Covid-19 Pandemic And The Power Of Numbers, Jessica Ancker

Numeracy

The COVID-19 pandemic has produced a deluge of news coverage of quantitative concepts. In this viewpoint, we provide examples of effective and poor quantitative communication by the professional news media as well as social media communicators. Effective examples include a number of online animations and engaging interactive simulations. Examples of poor quantitative communication include the widespread reporting of raw numbers rather than rates, failing to address uncertainty, not providing sufficient context for numbers, and not discussing the implications of false negative and false positive diagnostic test results. Educators can draw from this body of news to develop compelling quantitative literacy …

Applying Modern Immunology To The Plague Of Ancient Athens, Juhi C. Patel

Pursuit - The Journal of Undergraduate Research at The University of Tennessee

During the 5^th century BCE, ancient Athens and Sparta were involved in a major war during which an epidemic disease broke out in Athens, claiming the lives of a substantial part of the population. Although the ancient Greek historian Thucydides provides a first-hand account of the symptoms of the plague, modern historians have not been able to definitively identify the pathogen that caused the deadly epidemic. In 1994, a burial tomb of Athens was unearthed that unveiled the likely remains of plague victims. In 2005, scientists conducted molecular testing on the dental remains and used suicide PCR to compare …

The Current Neuroscientific Understanding Of Alzheimer's Disease, Rachel A. Brandes

Pursuit - The Journal of Undergraduate Research at The University of Tennessee

Alzheimer’s disease is a degenerative neurological illness characterized by the deterioration of brain regions implicated in memory and cognitive function. While researchers have yet to find a cure or effective treatment, they have gained a better understanding of its pathology and development. Through years of neuroscience research, scientists have discovered much of what happens in the brain during Alzheimer’s disease onset and how this causes its symptoms; many hypotheses regarding this aspect of the illness involve temporal lobe atrophy, neurofibrillary tangles, and amyloid plaques. Although Alzheimer’s disease affects millions of people every day, it seems that most are unaware of …

Ticked Off: How Expansion Of City Boundaries Affects Rates Of Lyme Disease In The United States, Daphne Fauber

The Journal of Purdue Undergraduate Research

No abstract provided.

Melatonin Attenuates Oxidative Stress And Modulates Inflammatory Response After Experimental Burn Trauma, Minka Hristova, Ganka Bekyarova, Milena Atanasova, Maria Tzaneva

Journal of Mind and Medical Sciences

Introduction. Thermal injury activates an inflammatory response. Melatonin possesses anti-oxidant and anti-inflammatory properties. The objective of the present work was to study melatonin effects on the inflammatory response under conditions of oxidative stress during the early stage of thermal injury.

Materials and methods. We used 24 white male rats of Wistar breed, randomly divided into three experimental groups. Group one was the control, group two was inflicted with burn trauma, and group three was inflicted with burn trauma, with melatonin application following the thermal injury. Melatonin was applied twice in doses of 10 g/kg b.m. immediately after the burn trauma …

The Battle Against Malaria: A Teachable Moment, Randy K. Schwartz

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

Malaria has been humanity’s worst public health problem throughout recorded history. Mathematical methods are needed to understand which factors are relevant to the disease and to develop counter-measures against it. This article and the accompanying exercises provide examples of those methods for use in lower- or upper-level courses dealing with probability, statistics, or population modeling. These can be used to illustrate such concepts as correlation, causation, conditional probability, and independence. The article explains how the apparent link between sickle cell trait and resistance to malaria was first verified in Uganda using the chi-squared probability distribution. It goes on to explain …