Disease Modeling Commons^™

Mechanistic Mathematical Models: An Underused Platform For Hpv Research, Marc Ryser, Patti Gravitt, Evan R. Myers

Global Health Faculty Publications

Health economic modeling has become an invaluable methodology for the design and evaluation of clinical and public health interventions against the human papillomavirus (HPV) and associated diseases. At the same time, relatively little attention has been paid to a different yet complementary class of models, namely that of mechanistic mathematical models. The primary focus of mechanistic mathematical models is to better understand the intricate biologic mechanisms and dynamics of disease. Inspired by a long and successful history of mechanistic modeling in other biomedical fields, we highlight several areas of HPV research where mechanistic models have the potential to advance the …

Perspectives On Model Forecasts Of The 2014–2015 Ebola Epidemic In West Africa: Lessons And The Way Forward, Gerardo Chowell, Cecile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Stefano Merler, Alessandro Vespignani

Global Health Faculty Publications

The unprecedented impact and modeling efforts associated with the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa provides a unique opportunity to document the performances and caveats of forecasting approaches used in near-real time for generating evidence and to guide policy. A number of international academic groups have developed and parameterized mathematical models of disease spread to forecast the trajectory of the outbreak. These modeling efforts often relied on limited epidemiological data to derive key transmission and severity parameters, which are needed to calibrate mechanistic models. Here, we provide a perspective on some of the challenges and lessons drawn from these efforts, …

A Generalized-Growth Model To Characterize The Early Ascending Phase Of Infectious Disease Outbreaks, Cecile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Gerardo Chowell

Global Health Faculty Publications

Background

A better characterization of the early growth dynamics of an epidemic is needed to dissect the important drivers of disease transmission, refine existing transmission models, and improve disease forecasts.

Materials and methods

We introduce a 2-parameter generalized-growth model to characterize the ascending phase of an outbreak and capture epidemic profiles ranging from sub-exponential to exponential growth. We test the model against empirical outbreak data representing a variety of viral pathogens in historic and contemporary populations, and provide simulations highlighting the importance of sub-exponential growth for forecasting purposes.

Results

We applied the generalized-growth model to 20 infectious disease outbreaks representing …