Disease Modeling Commons^™

The Covid-19 Pandemic And The Power Of Numbers, Jessica Ancker

Numeracy

The COVID-19 pandemic has produced a deluge of news coverage of quantitative concepts. In this viewpoint, we provide examples of effective and poor quantitative communication by the professional news media as well as social media communicators. Effective examples include a number of online animations and engaging interactive simulations. Examples of poor quantitative communication include the widespread reporting of raw numbers rather than rates, failing to address uncertainty, not providing sufficient context for numbers, and not discussing the implications of false negative and false positive diagnostic test results. Educators can draw from this body of news to develop compelling quantitative literacy …

484— Modeling Social Distancing Methods And Their Effectiveness In Combating The Spread Of Ebola, Rachel Fair

GREAT Day Posters

Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is a rare but severe disease that is transmitted among humans through direct-contact with, and close proximity to, infected bodily fluids. From 2014-16, West Africa experienced the largest Ebola outbreak ever recorded, infecting over 28,000 people, and killing over 11,000. Although the symptoms of EVD are treatable, the disease can be extremely deadly, with an average of 50% EVD cases resulting in fatality. In areas where healthcare is scarce and vaccinations are not readily available, the practices of social distancing and self-quarantining have been shown to be highly effective in combating the spread of EVD. To …

On The Inadequacy Of Species Distribution Models For Modelling The Spread Of Sars-Cov-2: Response To Araújo And Naimi, Joseph D. Chipperfield, Blas M. Benito, Robert B. O'Hara, Richard J. Telford, Colin J. Carlson

United States Public Health Resources

The ongoing pandemic of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is causing significant damage to public health and economic livelihoods, and is putting significant strains on healthcare services globally. This unfolding emergency has prompted the preparation and dissemination of the article “Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus likely to be constrained by climate” by Araújo and Naimi (2020). The authors present the results of an ensemble forecast made from a suite of species distribution models (SDMs), where they attempt to predict the suitability of the climate for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 over the coming months. They argue that climate is …

An Analysis Of The Rajasthan Public Health System’S Response To The 2019 Dengue Insurgence, Luke Bryan

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Dengue virus is in a pandemic status and is a major public health issue in the modern world. The mosquito-borne disease is largely prevalent in Asia and specifically India, where more than half of the states are considered to have complete presence of the dengue virus. The intricate infrastructure of the Indian public health system looks for dengue cases at all levels and reports to the integrated disease surveillance programme (IDSP).

Analyses of the IDSP and trends of dengue cases was done in response to dengue outbreaks throughout the state. Geographic information system (GIS) maps were created to evaluate a …

A Comparison Of Agent-Based Models And Equation Based Models For Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Elizabeth Hunter, Brian Mac Namee, John D. Kelleher

Articles

There are two main methods that are used to model the spread of an infectious disease: agent-based modelling and equation based modelling. In this paper, we compare the results from an example implementation of each method, and show that although the agent-based model takes longer to setup and run, it provides additional information that is not available when using an equation based model. Specifically, the ability of the agent-based model to capture heterogeneous mixing and agent interactions enables it to give a better overall view of an outbreak. We compare the performance of both models by simulating a measles outbreak …

Evaluation Of Oncolytic And Immunomodulatory Potential Of The Hsv-1 Live-Attenuated Vaccine Strain Vc2 In An Immunocompetent Murine Melanoma Model, Natalie Wall Fowlkes

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Melanoma accounts for 90% of skin cancer-related deaths in humans. Treatment options for metastatic melanoma in people is very limited. Melanoma is considered to be an immunogenic tumor, spurring interest in development of immunotherapies for the treatment of metastatic melanoma. Oncolytic virotherapy has been widely investigated. The first ever oncolytic virotherapy to receive FDA-approval is an HSV-1-based virus (Talimogene Laherperavec (T-Vec) or Imlygic) containing a transgene for human GM-CSF to enhance anti-tumor immune responses after injection. Durable response rate in human patients was only 16% despite impressive efficacy in anti-tumor effects in vitro and in murine tumor models. Novel viruses …

Modeling Hcv Interactions With P53: Implications For Carcinogenesis, Harsh Jain

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Studies Of Amino Acid Mutations In Drug Resistance Of The Smo Protein, Eunice Wintona

UNO Student Research and Creative Activity Fair

Smoothened receptor (SMO) is a protein that in humans, is encoded by the SMO gene. A systemic mutation in its binding pocket helps predict the sensitivity of mutant proteins to different drugs. Known as a GPCR-like receptor, it is a component of the hedgehog signaling pathway; a pathway involved in body patterning and the regulation of adult stem cells. An uncontrolled or inappropriate activation of the Hedgehog pathway drives tumor progression in cancers and a number of birth defects. To achieve these goals, the molecular modeling software MOE was used to build small molecules and drug molecules like Vismodegib and …

The Kinetics Of Type I Interferons During Influenza A Virus Infection, Margaret A. Myers

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

The Kinetics Of Type I Interferons During Influenza Virus Infection, Margaret A. Myers

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Perspectives On Model Forecasts Of The 2014–2015 Ebola Epidemic In West Africa: Lessons And The Way Forward, Gerardo Chowell, Cecile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Stefano Merler, Alessandro Vespignani

Global Health Faculty Publications

The unprecedented impact and modeling efforts associated with the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa provides a unique opportunity to document the performances and caveats of forecasting approaches used in near-real time for generating evidence and to guide policy. A number of international academic groups have developed and parameterized mathematical models of disease spread to forecast the trajectory of the outbreak. These modeling efforts often relied on limited epidemiological data to derive key transmission and severity parameters, which are needed to calibrate mechanistic models. Here, we provide a perspective on some of the challenges and lessons drawn from these efforts, …

Epidemiology Of White Spot Syndrome Virus In The Daggerblade Grass Shrimp (Palaemonetes Pugio) And The Gulf Sand Fiddler Crab (Uca Panacea), Muhammad

Dissertations

Ever since the first outbreaks of White spot syndrome virus (WSSV), which causes White Spot Disease (WSD), in Asia in the early 1990s, the pathogen has been a major constraint to the profitability of the shrimp aquaculture industry across the globe. WSSV has a broad host range and is routinely detected in wild decapod crustaceans. In the present study, two common species in the tidal salt marsh along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, the daggerblade grass shrimp (Palaemonetes pugio) and the Gulf sand fiddler crab (Uca panacea), were investigated for their role as …

The Kinetics Of Type 1 Interferons During Influenza Virus Infection, Margaret A. Myers

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

A Bi-Stable Switch In Virus Dynamics Can Explain The Differences In Disease Outcome Following Siv Infections In Rhesus Macaques, Stanca Ciupe, Christopher Miller, Jonathan Forde

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Determinants Of The Efficacy Of Hiv Latency Reversing Agents And Implications For Drug And Treatment Design, Ruian Ke

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

A Mathematical Model Of The Spread Of Dengue Fever Incorporating Mobility, Kelly A. Reagan

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Aids Denialism, Erika Jenel Delos Santos, Roy Llana, Jocelyn Tan

Festival of Communities: UG Symposium (Posters)

AIDS denialism is a growing issue in many parts the world. Through scholarly journal articles, book resources and other research tactics, further understanding how HIV/AIDS denialism is unethical can be distinguished. Discovering that AIDS is most prominent in South Africa explains why denialism is as critical as it is. However, the unethical aspect of AIDS denialism is in effect particularly amongst families. When a South African inhabitant realizes they have AIDS, they feel outcasted by their families due to shame. They fear as though they will be disowned because they have flaws that are unacceptable. These family values are significant …