Disease Modeling Commons^™

A Mathematical Model For Managing Diphtheria Outbreaks In Nigeria Via Vaccination, Enhanced Surveillance, Effective Quarantine, And Social Distancing Measures, Hycienth Ortser Orapine, Nyiutya Cephas Ine, Dekera Jacob Washachi, Ali Audu Baidu, Lubem Matthew Kwaghkor

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

Diphtheria is a highly infectious respiratory and skin disease that poses a significant threat to global public health. In Nigeria, children and adults with low immunity remain at high risk due to recurring annual outbreaks in the last decade, with a death rate of as high as 68.8\%. This paper presents a deterministic compartmental model to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions implemented by the Nigerian government. The model's mathematical and epidemiological validity is established through proofs of non-negativity and boundedness. The basic reproduction number ($R_0$) is derived, and stability analysis confirms that the diphtheria-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically …

Tumor–Immune Dynamics With Memory And Time Delay: A Fractional-Order Model With Ctla-4 Regulation, Mutaz Mohammad, Mohyeedden Sweidan, Alexander Trounev, Fathalla Rihan

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

This study develops a fractional-order tumor-immune interaction model incorporating Caputo memory effects, delayed immune activation, and CTLA-4 checkpoint regulation. The model describes the coupled dynamics of tumor cells, CD4$^{+}$ T cells, IFN-$\gamma$, and CTLA-4, and extends classical integer-order tumor-immune models by accounting for hereditary immune responses and biologically motivated latency effects. Theoretical properties, including positivity, boundedness, equilibrium structure, and fractional-order stability, are examined to establish the biological and mathematical consistency of the model. The delayed fractional system is then investigated computationally by comparing several numerical methods, including finite difference discretization, Daubechies wavelet collocation, Euler wavelet collocation, and a predictor-corrector scheme. …

A Predictive Coding Account Of Spatial Working Memory Following Prophylactic Levetiracetam Administration Prior To Traumatic Brain Injury, Omeima Mutwali

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) symptom prevention and remediation is an important area of research that would benefit vulnerable groups, including active-duty and veteran soldiers. These patients can sustain penetrative forces in fields of combat or in training, which result in focal lesions that trigger inflammatory and degenerative processes in the brain. Both primary and secondary injuries are associated with changes to cognition, behavior and affective state. This disease poses increased risk of epileptogenesis, as well. Given these outcomes, prior research has evaluated levetiracetam (LEV) as a prophylactic treatment for seizures, cognitive deficits and negative emotionality. LEV acts as a presynaptic …

Stochastic Invasion And Extinction In Environmentally Transmitted Diseases, Mahmudul Bari Hridoy, Lauren M. Childs

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

A Mechanistic Model Of Adhesion, Inflammation, Sleep, And Pain In Sickle Cell Patients, Milan Marsh, Rebecca Segal

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

The Crucial Role Of Machine Learning Models In Predicting Current Childhood Asthma: Model Comparison, Calibration, And Shap-Based Interpretation, Aditya Chakraborty, A. K.M. Raquibul Bashar

Epidemiology, Biostatistics, & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Background: Asthma is one of the most prominent chronic diseases in children and one of the most challenging ailments to diagnose in infants and preschoolers in the United States. Predictive models can be instrumental in improving early diagnosis, personalized treatment strategies, and disease progression. By utilizing nationalized data, this study focuses on building and comparing high-performing analytical predictive models based on the relevant risk factors and identifying the most influential predictors.

Methods: We analyzed cross-sectional BRFSS Asthma Call-Back Survey data (2011-2020; N = 9,813) and randomly split participants into training and testing sets. An XGBoost model (hyperparameters tuned via grid …

A Novel Mathematical Model Of Hiv Transmission Incorporating The Effects Of Treatment And Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis: Sensitivity Analysis And Numerical Simulations, Erick Manuel Delgado Moya

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) continues to be a public health problem in many countries of the world, and Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a preventive method for HIV, which has shown great efficacy and is in use worldwide. This work presents a new mathematical model for HIV transmission incorporating PrEP use and evaluates the impact of PrEP along with its increasing use in a population. The construction of the model takes into account three forms of diagnosis: diagnosis of individuals in risky sexual contact, diagnosis after risky contact (diagnosis in the undiagnosed infected compartment), and diagnosis associated with attempting to enter …

Shape: Spatial Health And Population Estimator, Emma M. Von Hoene, Aanya Gupta, Hamdi Kavak, Amira Roess, Taylor Anderson

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

A Novel Mathematical Model Of Oropouche Virus Transmission Dynamics, Darsh Gandhi, Carli Peterson, Emma Slack, Elizabeth Rubio, Amira Claxton, Christopher M. Kribs

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

[Lele] Measles And Mandates– What Will Happen If Florida Repeals The Mmr Vaccine Mandate?, Alice Oveson, Abba Gumel

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Heterogeneity In Malaria: A Pk-Pd Immuno-Epidemiology Model With Non-Exponential Waiting Times, Katharine Gurski

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Parameter Estimation And Simulation In Pollution-Induced Asthma Disease Model Using Physics-Informed Neural Networks, Aadi Gannavaram

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Modeling Sickle Cell Disease Using A Sleep-Pain-Inflammation Cycle, Milan Marsh

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Forecasting Influenza Rates Using Machine Learning: A Study Of Chatgpt's Predictive Accuracy, Sara Saleh

University Honors Theses

This study evaluates ChatGPT's ability to forecast influenza rates, such as the number of flu cases, hospitalizations, and death during peak season periods using CDC data, and comparing forecasts against actual results to calculate statistical accuracy and consistency. Influenza forecasting is essential for public health planning, but traditional methods may not always provide timely or accurate predictions. In this research study, ChatGPT was utilized to predict the influenza rates for the following week based on the previous week's data obtained from the FluView surveillance system. The predicted rates were compared to the actual influenza rates to assess the model's overall …

Identification And Preclinical Assessment Of Novel Therapeutic Modalities In Environmental Exposure-Induced Lung Disease, Aaron D. Schwab

Theses & Dissertations

Environmental lung diseases are preventable respiratory conditions either caused or made worse by inhaled environmental exposures. Contemporarily, environmental lung diseases are most associated with workplace exposures given specific occupational processes aerosolize inflammatory agents that can be inhaled at high concentrations. Although a considerable amount is known regarding immunoglobulin (Ig)E-mediated responses to environmental exposures, little is known about non-IgE mediated respiratory conditions resulting from lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-enriched organic dust exposure(s). Chronic respiratory diseases such as asthma, hypersensitivity pneumonitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and pulmonary fibrosis have all been identified as environmental lung diseases caused or exacerbated by such environmental dusts. Therapeutic …

A Modified Sir Model Used To Investigate The Relationship Between Congenital And Adult Syphilis, Kaleesta R. Waysman

Honors Thesis

A complex SIR model integrating the relationship between adult and congenital syphilis was developed. The goal of the project was to determine the specific population(s) or control strategies that should be enforced, altered, or removed to decrease the number of children experiencing clinical sequelae due to congenital syphilis. Early clinical sequelae include hydrops fetalis, preterm birth, central nervous system infection, hepatosplenomegaly, hyperbilirubinemia, cholestasis, hemolytic anemia, snuffles, osteochondritis, and lesions or rashes in the palms and soles. Late clinical sequelae include interstitial keratitis, hearing loss, Hutchinson teeth, saber shins, Clutton joints, mulberry molars, and saddle nose. After implementing real-world data into …

Bloom: Behavioral Learning And Outcome Observation In Microbes, Sean Sarwar Haque, Luke Compton Wharton, Ming Lin, Razvan Voicu

Symposium of Student Scholars

Understanding how pathogens respond to physical changes in their environment is crucial for developing effective treatments and preventative measures. Current research often relies on static models or experimental data that either fail to capture the dynamic interactions within cellular environments or are not generalizable to other types of pathogens. This project aims to address this gap by creating a comprehensive cell simulation that models pathogens and their response to chemical, physical, and physiological changes. The proposed solution is a simulation that integrates biological data and computational modeling to replicate the behavior of pathogens in real time as they are affected …

Estimating Per-Infection Cost And Burden For Dengue And Zika As A Function Of Antibody-Dependent Enhancement, Christopher M. Kribs

Mathematics Faculty Publications - Archive

The complex immune interactions produced by the tetravalent dengue vaccine Dengvaxia have foregrounded the important role of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) in dengue infection. Some evidence exists that ADE may extend beyond the four dengue serotypes to Zika, a closely related flavivirus transmitted by the same mosquito species as dengue, and may also account for the increased severity of some cases. Estimates of the public health impact of dengue vaccination may then need to include its effects on the transmission of Zika in addition to dengue. This study gathers primary references to build estimates of per-case economic cost and disease burden …

Enhancing The Accuracy Of Image Classification For Degenerative Brain Diseases With Cnn Ensemble Models Using Mel-Spectrograms, Sang-Ha Sung, Michael Pokojovy, Do-Young Kang, Woo-Yong Bae, Yeon-Jae Hong, Sangjin Kim

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and Parkinson’s disease (PD) are prevalent neurodegenerative disorders among the elderly, leading to cognitive decline and motor impairments. As the population ages, the prevalence of these neurodegenerative disorders is increasing, providing motivation for active research in this area. However, most studies are conducted using brain imaging, with relatively few studies utilizing voice data. Using voice data offers advantages in accessibility compared to brain imaging analysis. This study introduces a novel ensemble-based classification model that utilizes Mel spectrograms and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to distinguish between healthy individuals (NM), AD, and PD patients. A total of 700 voice …

Mathematical Modelling Of Disease Outbreak, Favour Christian, Matthew Molloy

SURE Journal: Science Undergraduate Research Experience Journal

Establishing a model framework for more research necessitates a thorough understanding of the causes, distribution, prevalence, and evolution of infectious illnesses. The main mathematical concept used in this modelling simulation is ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The purpose of this study was to investigate the significance of the many criteria linked to a zombie virus spread. The zombie framework provides an accessible and relatively simple representation of the nature of infectious disease spread, allowing for tractable assumptions and the development of more complex situations.

The models are designed around a zombie outbreak in which the zombie virus is spread through a …

Early Ctdna Kinetics As A Dynamic Biomarker Of Cancer Treatment Response, Aaron Li, Emil Lou, Kevin Leder, Jasmine Foo

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Modeling Fast Information And Slow(Er) Disease Spreading: A Geometric Analysis, Iulia Martina Bulai, Mattia Sensi, Sara Sottile

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Dual-Domain Clustering Of Spatiotemporal Infectious Disease Data, Samuel R. Thornton, Erin C.S. Acquesta, Patrick D. Finley, Mansoor A. Haider

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Information Feedback Delays Within Epidemic Models And Their Effect On Model Dynamics., Maria K. Bouka, Christopher Strickland Dr

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Statistical Approaches For The Early Detection Of Colorectal Cancer Using Longitudinal Biomarkers, Emily Berry

Statistical Science Theses and Dissertations

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third leading cause of cancer-related death in the United States [45]. CRC is believed to advance from adenomatous polyps creating a unique opportunity for both early detection and cancer prevention [4, 23]. Like other diseases, CRC screening reduces mortality by detecting cancer at earlier, more treatable stages; however, it can also reduce incidence through the removal of precancerous lesions [4]. As a result, screening is recommended for average-risk adults ≥ 45 years of age and includes a variety of tests [4, 12]. Despite alternate screening options, colonoscopy capacity is often cited as a barrier to …

Code For Care: Hypertension Prediction In Women Aged 18-39 Years, Kruti Sheth

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

The longstanding prevalence of hypertension, often undiagnosed, poses significant risks of severe chronic and cardiovascular complications if left untreated. This study investigated the causes and underlying risks of hypertension in females aged between 18-39 years. The research questions were: (Q1.) What factors affect the occurrence of hypertension in females aged 18-39 years? (Q2.) What machine learning algorithms are suited for effectively predicting hypertension? (Q3.) How can SHAP values be leveraged to analyze the factors from model outputs? The findings are: (Q1.) Performing Feature selection using binary classification Logistic regression algorithm reveals an array of 30 most influential factors at an …

Modeling An Infection Outbreak With Quarantine: The Sibkr Model, Mikenna Dew, Amanda Langosch, Theadora Baker-Wallerstein

Rose-Hulman Undergraduate Mathematics Journal

Influenza is a respiratory infection that places a substantial burden in the world population each year. In this project, we study and interpret a data set from a flu outbreak in a British boarding school in 1978 with mathematical modeling. First, we propose a generalization of the SIR model based on the quarantine measure in place and establish the long-time behavior of the model. By analyzing the model mathematically, we determine the analytic formulas of the basic reproduction number, the long-time limit of solutions, and the maximum number of infection population. Moreover, we estimate the parameters of the model based …

A Tale Of Two Viruses: Why Smallpox Was Eradicated And Polio Persists, Katherine G. Mcgough, Erin N. Bodine

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

The smallpox and poliomyelitis (polio) viruses were, at a time, one of the largest threats to global public health killing millions until global eradication campaigns were put into effect. Vaccination led to the eradication of smallpox and the elimination of polio for most of the world. However, polio continues to persist at endemic levels in Pakistan and Afghanistan. We developed ODE models of smallpox and polio to explore differences in transmission dynamics and determine if the underlying biology has made poliomyelitis more difficult to eradicate. Our model analysis shows there are multiple factors which should allow polio to have a …

When Brain Meets Artificial Intelligence, Lu Zhang

Computer Science and Engineering Dissertations - Archive

When we review the history of development of artificial intelligence (AI), we will find that brain science plays a pivotal role in fostering breakthroughs in AI, such as artificial neural networks (ANNs). Today, AI has made remarkable strides, particularly with the emergence of large language models (LLMs), surpassing expectations and achieving human-level performance in certain tasks. Nonetheless, an insurmountable gap remains between AI and human intelligence. It is urgent to establish a bridge between brain science and AI, promoting their mutual enhancement and collaborations. This involve establishing connections from brain science to AI (brain-inspired AI), and reversely, from AI to …

Regulation Of Mirnas In Obesity And Diabetes, Eva Maher, Ava O'Meara, Cathy Brougham

SURE Journal: Science Undergraduate Research Experience Journal

Introduction: The prevalence of obesity and obesity-related secondary disorders has increased dramatically in recent years. Dysregulated microRNA (miRNA) expression has been linked to the development of obesity and its associated disorders. Adipose derived stem cells (ADSCs) are promising cell models of obesity, obesity-related inflammation and diabetes. Furthermore, miRNA expression profiles have emerged as promising targets for the novel treatment of diseases such as obesity. In order to enhance miRNA-based therapies, the miRNA expression profile of obesity and its related disorders must be monitored to further understand the underlying mechanisms of obesity and to identify novel targets.

Aim: The aim of …