Medicine and Health Sciences Commons^™

Discrepancies In Stroke Distribution And Dataset Origin In Machine Learning For Stroke., Lohit Velagapudi, Nikolaos Mouchtouris, Michael P Baldassari, David Nauheim, Omaditya Khanna, Fadi Al Saiegh, Nabeel Herial, M Reid Gooch, Stavropoula Tjoumakaris, Robert H Rosenwasser, Pascal Jabbour

Department of Neurosurgery Faculty Papers

BACKGROUND: Machine learning algorithms depend on accurate and representative datasets for training in order to become valuable clinical tools that are widely generalizable to a varied population. We aim to conduct a review of machine learning uses in stroke literature to assess the geographic distribution of datasets and patient cohorts used to train these models and compare them to stroke distribution to evaluate for disparities.

AIMS: 582 studies were identified on initial searching of the PubMed database. Of these studies, 106 full texts were assessed after title and abstract screening which resulted in 489 papers excluded. Of these 106 studies, …

Sustained Use Of The Impella 50 Heart Pump Enables Bridge To Clinical Decisions In 34 Patients, Daniel W Nelson, Sakthi Sundararajan, Evan Klein, Lyle D Joyce, Lucian A Durham, David L Joyce, Asim A Mohammed

The Texas Heart Institute Journal

We studied whether sustained hemodynamic support (>7 d) with the Impella 5.0 heart pump can be used as a bridge to clinical decisions in patients who present with cardiogenic shock, and whether such support can improve their outcomes. We retrospectively reviewed cases of patients who had Impella 5.0 support at our hospital from August 2017 through May 2019. Thirty-four patients (23 with cardiogenic shock and 11 with severely decompensated heart failure) underwent sustained support for a mean duration of 11.7 ± 9.3 days (range, ≤48 d). Of 29 patients (85.3%) who survived to next therapy, 15 were weaned from …

Trends In Race/Ethnicity Of Pediatric Residents And Fellows: 2007-2019, Kimberly Montez, Emma A Omoruyi, Kenya Mcneal-Trice, Wendy J Mack, Lahia Yemane, Alissa R Darden, Christopher J Russell

Faculty, Staff and Student Publications

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: A diverse pediatric workforce reflecting the racial/ethnic representation of the US population is an important factor in eliminating health inequities. Studies reveal minimal improvements over time in the proportions of underrepresented in medicine (URiM) physicians; however, studies assessing trends in pediatric URiM trainee representation are limited. Our objective was to evaluate longitudinal trends in racial/ethnic representation among a cross-section of US pediatric trainees and to compare it to the US population.

METHODS: Repeated cross-sectional study of graduate medical education census data on self-reported race/ethnicity of pediatric residents and subspecialty fellows from 2007 to 2019. To evaluate trends …

Sex-Related Disparities In Cardiovascular Health Care Among Patients With Premature Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease, Michelle T Lee, Dhruv Mahtta, David J Ramsey, Jing Liu, Arunima Misra, Khurram Nasir, Zainab Samad, Dipti Itchhaporia, Safi U Khan, Richard S Schofield, Christie M Ballantyne, Laura A Petersen, Salim S Virani

Faculty, Staff and Students Publications

IMPORTANCE: There is a paucity of data regarding secondary prevention care disparities in women with premature and extremely premature atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), defined as an ASCVD event at 55 years or younger and 40 years or younger, respectively.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate sex-based differences in antiplatelet agents, any statin, high-intensity statin (HIS) therapy, and statin adherence in patients with premature and extremely premature ASCVD.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a cross-sectional, multicenter, nationwide VA health care system-based study with patients enrolled in the Veterans With Premature Atherosclerosis (VITAL) registry. The study assessed patients who had at least 1 primary …

The New (Version 9) American Joint Committee On Cancer Tumor, Node, Metastasis Staging For Cervical Cancer, Alexander B Olawaiye, Thomas P Baker, M Kay Washington, David G Mutch

2020-Current year OA Pubs

The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor, node, metastasis (TNM) staging for all cancer sites has been periodically updated as a published manual for many years. The last update, the eighth edition AJCC Cancer Staging Manual went into use on January 1, 2018. The AJCC has since restructured and updated its processes, and all AJCC staging-related data are now housed on its new application programming interface. Consequently, the next AJCC TNM staging update, AJCC version 9 TNM staging, will be published electronically and will be released chapter by chapter. The first chapter of version 9 AJCC TNM staging is …

Responding To The Call: Building A Training Program To Diversify The Academy In Alzheimer's Disease Research, Lucy Annang Ingram Phd, Mph, Marvella E. Ford, Christiana L. Johnson, Brianna Ashford-Carroll, Quentun Mccollum, Daniela B. Friedman Ph.D., Sue Ellen Levkoff

Faculty and Staff Publications

Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) are at the forefront of the United States (US) public health agenda due to their tremendous human and financial burden. Further, disproportionately high ADRD rates among racial/ethnic minorities require incorporating the unique perspectives of racially and ethnically diverse scientists, which will necessitate diversifying the scientific workforce that investigates disparities in aging. The purpose of this paper is to describe the training and mentorship initiatives of the National Institute on Aging (NIA)-funded Carolina Center on Alzheimer's Disease and Minority Research, emphasizing lessons learned from our engagement with underrepresented minority and minoritized (URM) Scientists. We highlight …

Resident Opinions Of Diabetes Management In Training: A Survey., Amber M Healy, Jarrod L Uhrig, Jay H Shubrook, Nay Linn Aung, Archana R Sadhu

Medical Education Articles

CONTEXT: Primary care physicians need a strong foundation in diabetes management, as they are the first line of care for patients with this complex disease, which is increasing in frequency in the United States. This foundational training begins in medical school, but its applications become more important during residency.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify osteopathic and allopathic family medicine residents' amount of exposure to diabetes in residency training, investigate referral patterns related to diabetes management, and assess comfort levels with various diabetes treatment modalities.

METHODS: An 18-item cross sectional survey was sent via email using Qualtrics to program directors and chief residents …

Dietary Fiber Intake, The Gut Microbiome, And Chronic Systemic Inflammation In A Cohort Of Adult Men, Wenjie Ma, Yin Cao, Et Al.

2020-Current year OA Pubs

BACKGROUND: A higher intake of dietary fiber is associated with a decreased risk of chronic inflammatory diseases such as cardiovascular disease and inflammatory bowel disease. This may function in part due to abrogation of chronic systemic inflammation induced by factors such as dysbiotic gut communities. Data regarding the detailed influences of long-term and recent intake of differing dietary fiber sources on the human gut microbiome are lacking.

METHODS: In a cohort of 307 generally healthy men, we examined gut microbiomes, profiled by shotgun metagenomic and metatranscriptomic sequencing, and long-term and recent dietary fiber intake in relation to plasma levels of …

The Aric (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) Study: Jacc Focus Seminar 3/8, Jacqueline D Wright, Aaron R Folsom, Josef Coresh, A Richey Sharrett, David Couper, Lynne E Wagenknecht, Thomas H Mosley, Christie M Ballantyne, Eric A Boerwinkle, Wayne D Rosamond, Gerardo Heiss

Faculty, Staff and Student Publications

ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) initiated community-based surveillance in 1987 for myocardial infarction and coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence and mortality and created a prospective cohort of 15,792 Black and White adults ages 45 to 64 years. The primary aims were to improve understanding of the decline in CHD mortality and identify determinants of subclinical atherosclerosis and CHD in Black and White middle-age adults. ARIC has examined areas including health disparities, genomics, heart failure, and prevention, producing more than 2,300 publications. Results have had strong clinical impact and demonstrate the importance of population-based research in the spectrum of biomedical research …

Temporal Trends In Suicidal Ideation And Attempts Among Us Adolescents By Sex And Race/Ethnicity, 1991-2019, Yunyu Xiao, Julie Cerel, J. John Mann

Social Work Faculty Publications

Importance: Disparities by sex and racial/ethnic group in suicide death rates are present in US adolescents. Whether disparities in suicide death extend to groups targeted for suicide prevention efforts, namely, those with suicidal ideation or nonfatal suicide attempts, is unknown.

Objective: To examine differences in temporal trends between suicidal ideation and suicide attempts in US adolescents from 1991 through 2019 by sex and race/ethnicity subgroups.

Design, Setting, and Participants: A cross-sectional analysis of the national Youth Risk Behavior Survey, weighted to represent US adolescents from 1991 to 2019, included 183 563 US high-school students in grades 9 to 12. Data …

Integrated Omics Endotyping Of Infants With Respiratory Syncytial Virus Bronchiolitis And Risk Of Childhood Asthma., Yoshihiko Raita, Marcos Pérez-Losada, Robert J. Freishtat, Brennan Harmon, Jonathan M Mansbach, Pedro A Piedra, Zhaozhong Zhu, Carlos A Camargo, Kohei Hasegawa

Pediatrics Faculty Publications

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis is not only the leading cause of hospitalization in U.S. infants, but also a major risk factor for asthma development. While emerging evidence suggests clinical heterogeneity within RSV bronchiolitis, little is known about its biologically-distinct endotypes. Here, we integrated clinical, virus, airway microbiome (species-level), transcriptome, and metabolome data of 221 infants hospitalized with RSV bronchiolitis in a multicentre prospective cohort study. We identified four biologically- and clinically-meaningful endotypes: A) clinical

Covid-19 Treatment Combinations And Associations With Mortality In A Large Multi-Site Healthcare System., Dagan Coppock, Michael Baram, Anna Marie Chang, Patricia Henwood, Alan Kubey, Ross Summer, John Zurlo, Michael Li, Bryan Hess

Division of Infectious Diseases and Environmental Medicine Faculty Papers

INTRODUCTION: During the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, mortality associated with the disease declined in the United States. The standard of care for pharmacological interventions evolved during this period as new and repurposed treatments were used alone and in combination. Though these medications have been studied individually, data are limited regarding the relative impact of different medication combinations. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the association of COVID-19-related mortality and observed medication combinations and to determine whether changes in medication-related practice patterns and measured patient characteristics, alone, explain the decline in mortality seen early in the COVID-19 …

Outcomes And Risk Factors Associated With Sars-Cov-2 Infection In A North American Registry Of Patients With Multiple Sclerosis, Amber Salter, Robert J Fox, Scott D Newsome, June Halper, David K B Li, Pamela Kanellis, Kathleen Costello, Bruce Bebo, Kottil Rammohan, Gary R Cutter, Anne H Cross

2020-Current year OA Pubs

Importance: Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 causing COVID-19 prompted the need to gather information on clinical outcomes and risk factors associated with morbidity and mortality in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) and concomitant SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Objective: To examine outcomes and risk factors associated with COVID-19 clinical severity in a large, diverse cohort of North American patients with MS.

Design, Setting, and Participants: This analysis used deidentified, cross-sectional data on patients with MS and SARS-CoV-2 infection reported by health care professionals in North American academic and community practices between April 1, 2020, and December 12, 2020, in the COVID-19 Infections in MS Registry. …

Global Journey To Post-Pandemic Normalcy And Revival, Andrzej Sankowski

Journal of Global Awareness

After a year of COVID-19, countries, societies, and individuals are longing for normalcy and beginning to consider what life will be like post-pandemic. Efforts and experiences of countries in the European Union, Asia, Asia-Pacific, Australia, Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, and the United States are examined as they face challenges to end the pandemic and prepare for the post-pandemic reality. What will be the post-pandemic "new normalcy"? What changes caused by the pandemic are permanent in societies and the world? What are the necessary reforms that have to take place as part of normalcy? Reflections on the impacts of vaccinations, …

Electronic Clinical Decision Support For Children With Minor Head Trauma And Intracranial Injuries: A Sociotechnical Analysis, Jacob K Greenberg, Ayodamola Otun, Azzah Nasraddin, Ross C Brownson, Nathan Kuppermann, David D Limbrick, Po-Yin Yen, Randi E Foraker

2020-Current year OA Pubs

BACKGROUND: Current management of children with minor head trauma (MHT) and intracranial injuries is not evidence-based and may place some children at risk of harm. Evidence-based electronic clinical decision support (CDS) for management of these children may improve patient safety and decrease resource use. To guide these efforts, we evaluated the sociotechnical environment impacting the implementation of electronic CDS, including workflow and communication, institutional culture, and hardware and software infrastructure, among other factors.

METHODS: Between March and May, 2020 semi-structured qualitative focus group interviews were conducted to identify sociotechnical influences on CDS implementation. Physicians from neurosurgery, emergency medicine, critical care, …

Physician Skin Cancer Screening Among U.S. Military Veterans: Results From The National Health Interview Survey, Elliot J. Coups, Baichen Xu, Carolyn J. Heckman, Sharon L. Manne, Jerod L. Stapleton

Health, Behavior & Society Faculty Publications

Introduction

Although military veterans are at increased risk for skin cancer, little is known about the extent to which they have been screened for skin cancer. The study objective was to examine the prevalence and correlates of physician skin cancer screening among U.S. military veterans.

Methods

Data were drawn from the National Health Interview Survey. The study sample consisted of 2,826 individuals who reported being military veterans. Receipt of a physician skin examination was measured using a single question that asked participants whether they had ever had all of their skin from head to toe checked for cancer by a …

Differences In ​The Proportion Of Children Meeting Behavior Guidelines ​Between Summer ​And School By Socioeconomic Status And Race, Ethan T. Hunt, Lauren Von Klinggraeff, Alexis Jones, Sarah Burkart, Roddrick Dugger, Bridget Armstrong Ph.D., Michael Beets Ph.D., Gabrielle Turner-Mcgrievy Ph.D., Rd, Marco Geraci, Robert Glenn Weaver Med, Phd

Faculty Publications

Objective

Children who fail to meet activity, sleep, and screen-time guidelines are at increased risk for obesity. Further, children who are Black are more likely to have obesity when compared to children who are White, and children from low-income households are at increased risk for obesity when compared to children from higher-income households. The objective of this study was to evaluate the proportion of days meeting obesogenic behavior guidelines during the school year compared to summer vacation by race and free/reduced priced lunch (FRPL) eligibility.

Methods

Mixed-effects linear and logistic regressions estimated the proportion of days participants met activity, sleep, …

Covid-19-The American Perspective., Karl Saardi, Vesna Petronic-Rosic

Dermatology Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Tiny Tusks Internship And Electronic Application Use Among Breastfeeding Mothers, Amanda Herman

The Eleanor Mann School of Nursing Undergraduate Honors Theses

The United States (U.S.) lags behind most of the world in terms of breastfeeding rates despite all the research supporting the numerous benefits for both mother and baby. That said, the majority of the U.S. population also utilizes mobile health and internet for information on health illnesses and promotion. This paper synthesizes available statistics concerning mobile application usage and breastfeeding mothers. The objective was to determine why apps are utilized, general opinions of the apps, and the benefits and drawbacks of using such technology.

Prenatal Dietary Education, Using The Midwifery Model, In Ireland Vs The United States, Allison Erby

The Eleanor Mann School of Nursing Undergraduate Honors Theses

Prenatal dietary education is a very important component of care in healthy pregnancies, but more than that, dietary education can be an indicator of the value a healthcare provider places on holistic care or preventive medicine. The United States and Ireland are compared in this study because they represent high intervention vs. low intervention approaches, respectively, to obstetric care. Healthcare professionals from the United States and Ireland perceive the most important nutrients and method of receiving those differently. Maybe the most telling contrast, healthcare professionals in Ireland perceive food as the way pregnant women should receive vital nutrients, but healthcare …

Media Framing, Moral Panic And Covid-19: A Comparative Analysis Of China, South Korea, And The Us., Deena Devore, Sinyong Choi, Yudu Li, Hong Lu

Criminal Justice Faculty Publications

COVID-19 is perhaps the single most impactful event defining 2020 globally. Drawing on theory on media typology involving freedom and responsibility, media framing and moral panic theories, this paper examines media coverage on COVID-19 in three countries, China, South Korea and the United States. Data were obtained from six news outlets, Xinhua News, South China Morning Post, Chosun, Hankyoreh, CNN and Breitbart, two from each of the three countries. More than 1,000 COVID-19 related reports, spanning six days (the last day of January to June, 2020) were selected and coded based on common priming themes such as tone, the othering, …

Temporal Changes And Institutional Variation In Use Of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention For St-Elevation Myocardial Infarction With Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease In The United States: An Ncdr Research To Practice Project, Eric A Secemsky, Neel Butala, Aishwarya Raja, Rohan Khera, Yongfei Wang, Jeptha P Curtis, Thomas M Maddox, Salim S Virani, Ehrin J Armstrong, Kendrick A Shunk, Ralph G Brindis, Deepak Bhatt, Robert W Yeh

Faculty, Staff and Students Publications

IMPORTANCE: After disparate results from observational and small randomized studies, the COMPLETE trial demonstrated superiority of multivessel (MV) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) over culprit-only PCI for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

OBJECTIVE: To describe temporal trends and institutional variation of MV PCI use for STEMI in the United States to inform how new evidence may influence clinical practice.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study included STEMI admissions involving MV disease from 1598 institutions in the National Cardiovascular Data Registry CathPCI Registry from the third quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2018. An MV PCI was defined as a …

The Prove Study: Us Real-World Experience With Chlormethine/Mechlorethamine Gel In Combination With Other Therapies For Patients With Mycosis Fungoides Cutaneous T-Cell Lymphoma, Ellen J Kim, Joan Guitart, Christiane Querfeld, Michael Girardi, Amy Musiek, Oleg E Akilov, James T Angello, William L Bailey, Larisa J Geskin

2020-Current year OA Pubs

BACKGROUND: Chlormethine/mechlorethamine gel is a skin-directed therapy for patients with mycosis fungoides cutaneous T-cell lymphoma. Currently, real-world data on chlormethine gel are lacking.

OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to analyze the effect of chlormethine gel in combination with other therapies on efficacy, safety, and health-related quality of life in a real-world setting.

METHODS: This prospective, observational study enrolled adult patients actively using chlormethine gel. Patients were monitored for up to 2 years during standard-of-care clinic visits. No specific visit schedules or clinical assessments, with the exception of patient-completed questionnaires, were mandated because of the expected variability in practice patterns. The primary …

Association Of Physician Group Practice Participation In Bundled Payments With Patient Selection, Costs, And Outcomes For Joint Replacement, Karen E Joynt Maddox, E John Orav, Jie Zheng, Arnold M Epstein

2020-Current year OA Pubs

IMPORTANCE: Medicare's Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) program, which ran from 2013 to 2018, was an important experiment in physician-focused alternative payment models. However, little is known about whether the program was associated with better quality or outcomes or lower costs.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether participation in BPCI among physician group practices was associated with advantageous or deleterious changes in costs or patient outcomes.

DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional study used 2013 to 2017 Medicare files and difference-in-differences (DID) models to compare the change over time in Medicare payments, patient selection, and clinical outcomes between 91 orthopedic groups …

Physician Wellness Interventions And Distress Assessment During The Coronavirus Pandemic, Kimberly M. Robertello, Karen M. Dahl, Raed Khoury, David Christensen

Journal of Wellness

Introduction: Physician burnout and interventions to decrease physician burnout on organizational and individual levels have been theorized and implemented. The Coronavirus pandemic has increased the need to continue physician burnout assessment and increase wellness programming. Few studies have had the opportunity to address physician wellness amidst the Coronavirus pandemic using the strategy of multi-dimensional interventions. The purpose of this study is to document interventions to reduce burnout and stress among physicians during the Coronavirus pandemic while assessing overall physician distress and well-being.

Methods: A cohort study of 304 pediatric physicians at a large healthcare organization in the United …

In Men With Obesity, T2dm Is Associated With Poor Trabecular Microarchitecture And Bone Strength And Low Bone Turnover, Francesca Vigevano, Giulia Gregori, Georgia Colleluori, Rui Chen, Vimlin Autemrongsawat, Nicola Napoli, Clifford Qualls, Dennis T Villareal, Reina Armamento-Villareal

Faculty, Staff and Students Publications

INTRODUCTION: Obesity and type 2 Diabetes (T2D) are both associated with greater bone mineral density (BMD) but increased risk of fractures. The effect of the combination of both conditions on bone metabolism, microarchitecture, and strength in the obese population remains unknown.

METHODS: Data from 112 obese men were collected. Bone turnover and biochemical markers were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, body composition and BMD at all sites were assessed by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry, whereas bone microarchitecture and strength (stiffness and failure load) were measured by high-resolution peripheral computed tomography. Data were compared among metabolically healthy obese (MHO) and metabolically …

A Retrospective Look At The Predictions And Recommendations From The 2009 Amia Policy Meeting: Did We See Ehr-Related Clinician Burnout Coming?, Justin B Starren, William M Tierney, Marc S Williams, Paul Tang, Charlene Weir, Ross Koppel, Philip Payne, George Hripcsak, Don E Detmer

2020-Current year OA Pubs

Clinicians often attribute much of their burnout experience to use of the electronic health record, the adoption of which was greatly accelerated by the Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act of 2009. That same year, AMIA's Policy Meeting focused on possible unintended consequences associated with rapid implementation of electronic health records, generating 17 potential consequences and 15 recommendations to address them. At the 2020 annual meeting of the American College of Medical Informatics (ACMI), ACMI fellows participated in a modified Delphi process to assess the accuracy of the 2009 predictions and the response to the recommendations. Among …

Decade-Long Nationwide Trends And Disparities In Use Of Comfort Care Interventions For Patients With Ischemic Stroke, Kristie M Chu, Erica M Jones, Jennifer R Meeks, Alan P Pan, Kathryn L Agarwal, George E Taffet, Farhaan S Vahidy

Faculty, Staff and Students Publications

Background Stroke remains one of the leading causes of disability and death in the United States. We characterized 10-year nationwide trends in use of comfort care interventions (CCIs) among patients with ischemic stroke, particularly pertaining to acute thrombolytic therapy with intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator and endovascular thrombectomy, and describe in-hospital outcomes and costs. Methods and Results We analyzed the National Inpatient Sample from 2006 to 2015 and identified adult patients with ischemic stroke with or without thrombolytic therapy and CCIs using validated

Usability Of Electronic Health Record-Generated Discharge Summaries: Heuristic Evaluation., Patrice Dolhonde Tremoulet, Priyanka D Shah, Alisha A Acosta, Christian W Grant, Jon T Kurtz, Peter Mounas, Michael Kirchhoff, Elizabeth Wade

College of Science & Mathematics Departmental Research

BACKGROUND: Obtaining accurate clinical information about recent acute care visits is extremely important for outpatient providers. However, documents used to communicate this information are often difficult to use. This puts patients at risk of adverse events. Elderly patients who are seen by more providers and have more care transitions are especially vulnerable.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to (1) identify the information about elderly patients' recent acute care visits needed to coordinate their care, (2) use this information to assess discharge summaries, and (3) provide recommendations to help improve the quality of electronic health record (EHR)-generated discharge summaries, thereby increasing patient …

Real-World Outcomes Of Patients With Locally Advanced Or Metastatic Epithelioid Sarcoma, Mrinal M Gounder, Brian A Van Tine, Et Al.

2020-Current year OA Pubs

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available on the real-world effectiveness and safety of systemic therapies for advanced (surgically unresectable and/or metastatic) epithelioid sarcoma (ES).

METHODS: A retrospective medical records review was conducted in patients with advanced ES who were initiating first-line or ≥2 lines of systemic therapy (2000-2017) at 5 US cancer centers. The real-world overall response rate (rwORR), the duration of response (rwDOR), the disease control rate (rwDCR) (defined as stable disease for ≥32 weeks or any duration of response), and progression-free survival (rwPFS) were assessed by radiology reports. Overall survival (OS), rwDOR, and rwPFS were estimated from the time …