Zoology Commons^™

Amplification Of Black Vulture (Coragyps Atratus) Dna From Regurgitated Food Pellets, Daniel R. Taylor, Bryan M. Kluever, John S. Humphrey, Iona M. Hennessy, Amber Sutton, William E. Bruce, Antoinette J. Piaggio

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Studies that rely on noninvasive collection of DNA for birds often use feces or feathers. Some birds, such as vultures, regurgitate undigested matter in the form of pellets that are commonly found under roost sites. Our research demonstrates that regurgitated pellets are a viable, noninvasive source of DNA for molecular ecology studies of vultures. Our objectives were to amplify 5 microsatellite loci designed for distinguishing Turkey Vultures (Cathartes aura) and Black Vultures (Coragyps atratus) in a single, multiplexed PCR, and to determine how long the target nuclear DNA persists after a vulture pellet is regurgitated and …

Seasonal Climatic Niche And Migration Movements Of Double-Crested Cormorants, D. Tommy King, Guiming Wang, Fred L. Cunningham

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Avian migrants are challenged by seasonal adverse climatic conditions and energetic costs of long-distance flying. Migratory birds may track or switch seasonal climatic niche between the breeding and non-breeding grounds. Satellite tracking enables avian ecologists to investigate seasonal climatic niche and circannual movement patterns of migratory birds. The Double-crested Cormorant (Nannopterum auritum, hereafter cormorant) wintering in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) migrates to the Northern Great Plains and Great Lakes and is of economic importance because of its impacts on aquaculture. We tested the climatic niche switching hypothesis that cormorants would switch climatic niche between summer and winter …

Comparative Susceptibility Of Eastern Cottontails And New Zealand White Rabbits To Classical Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Virus (Rhdv) And Rhdv2, Fawzi Mohamed, Thomas Gidlewski, Mary L. Berninger, Heather M. Petrowski, Alexa J. Bracht, Carla Bravo De Rueda, Roger W. Barrette, Meredith Grady, Emily S. O'Hearn, Charles E. Lewis, Karen E. Moran, Tracy L. Sturgill, Lorenzo Capucci, J. Jeffrey Root

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) is associated with high morbidity and mortality in the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). In 2010, a genetically distinct RHDV named RHDV2 emerged in Europe and spread to many other regions, including North America in 2016. Prior to this study it was unknown if eastern cottontails (ECT(s); Sylvilagus floridanus), one of the most common wild lagomorphs in the United States, were susceptible to RHDV2. In this study, 10 wild-caught ECTs and 10 New Zealand white rabbits (NZWR(s); O. cuniculus) were each inoculated orally with either RHDV (RHDVa/GI.1a; n = 5 per species) or RHDV2 (a recombinant …

Solar Radiation And Soil Moisture Drive Tropical Forest Understory Responses To Experimental And Natural Hurricanes, J. Aaron Hogan, Joanne M. Sharpe, Ashley Van Beusekom, Sarah Stankavich, Samuel Matta Carmona, John E. Bithorn, Jamarys Torres-Díaz, Grizelle González, Jess K. Zimmerman, Aaron B. Shiels

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Tropical forest understory regeneration occurs rapidly after disturbance with compositional trajectories that depend on species availability and environmental conditions. To predict future tropical forest regeneration dynamics, we need a deeper understanding of how pulse disturbance events, like hurricanes, interact with environmental variability to affect understory demography and composition. We examined fern and sapling mortality, recruitment, and community composition in relation to solar radiation and soil moisture using 17 years of forest dynamics data (2003–2019) from the Canopy Trimming Experiment in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. Solar radiation increased 150% and soil moisture increased 40% following canopy trimming of experimental …

Genomic Tools Reveal Complex Social Organization Of An Invasive Large Mammal (Sus Scrofa), Chelsea L. Titus, Courtney F. Bowden, Timothy J. Smyser, Stephen L. Webb, James C. Beasley

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

A comprehensive understanding of sociality in wildlife is vital to optimizing conservation and management efforts. However, sociality is complicated, especially for widely distributed species that exhibit substantive behavioral plasticity. Invasive wild pigs (Sus scrofa), often representing hybrids of European wild boar and domestic pigs, are among the most adaptable and widely distributed large mammals. The social structure of wild pigs is believed to be similar to European wild boar, consisting of matriarchal groups (sounders) and solitary males. However, wild pig social structure is understudied and largely limited to visual observations. Using a hierarchical approach, we incorporated genomic tools …

How Environmental Change Will Impact Mosquito-Borne Diseases, Arsal Khan

Master's Projects and Capstones

Mosquitos, the most lethal species throughout human history, are the most prevalent source of vector-borne diseases and therefore a major global health burden. Mosquito-borne disease incidence is expected to shift with environmental change. These changes can be predicted using species distribution models. With the wide variety of methods used for models, consensus for improving accuracy and comparability is needed. A comparative analysis of three recent modeling approaches revealed that integrating modeling techniques compensates for trade-offs associated with a singular approach. An area that represents a critical gap in our ability to predict mosquito behavior in response to changing climate factors, …

Seasonal Variation And Tracking Of Climate Niche Of A Migratory Bird, Javier Gutiérrez Illán, Guiming Wang, D. Tommy King, Fred L. Cunningham

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Migratory birds inhabit different areas during breeding and non-breeding seasons. Depending on the time of the year, they may utilize different resources available in seasonal habitats, but also are subjected to changing climate regimes during their annual life cycle. Migratory birds may adopt ecological niche tracking to cope with different environmental conditions between breeding and non-breeding grounds. The American White Pelican (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos, hereafter ‘AWPE’) is a short-distance migrant between the Gulf of Mexico coastal regions (nonbreeding grounds) and the Northern Great Plains (breeding grounds) of Canada and the US. The American White Pelican is a piscivore, feeding …

Relative Palatability And Efficacy Of Brodifacoum-25d Conservation Rodenticide Pellets For Mouse Eradication On Midway Atoll, Peter J. Kappes, Shane R. Siers, Israel L. Leinbach, Robert T. Sugihara, Wesley J. Jolley, Jonathan H. Plissner, Elizabeth N. Flint, Kelly L. Goodale, Gregg R. Howald

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Invasive mice (Mus spp.) can negatively impact island species and ecosystems. Because fewer island rodent eradications have been attempted for mice compared to rats (Rattus spp.), less is known about efficacy and palatability of rodenticide baits for mouse eradications. We performed a series of bait acceptance and efficacy cage trials using a standard formulation of brodifacoum-based rodenticide on wild-caught mice from Sand Island, Midway Atoll, to help inform a proposed eradication there. Mice were offered ad libitum brodifacoum pellets along with various alternative food sources, and a “no choice” treatment group received only bait pellets. Mortality in the no choice …

Intercontinental Movement Of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5n1) Clade 2.3.4.4 Virus To The United States, 2021, Sarah N. Bevins, Susan A. Shriner, James C. Cumbee Jr., Krista E. Dilione, Kelly E. Douglass, Jeremy W. Ellis, Mary Lea Killian, Mia K. Torchetti, Julianna B. Lenoch

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

We detected Eurasian-origin highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus belonging to the Gs/GD lineage, clade 2.3.4.4b, in wild waterfowl in 2 Atlantic coastal states in the United States. Bird banding data showed widespread movement of waterfowl within the Atlantic Flyway and between neighboring flyways and northern breeding grounds.

Heritability Of Maxillary Dental Arch Dimensions In A Pedigreed Sample Of Hamadryas Baboons, Samuel Park

Crop, Soil and Environmental Sciences Undergraduate Honors Theses

This thesis presents a study of heritability of maxillary dental arch dimensions in a captive baboon colony. Arch dimensions are important subject because they influence the entirety of the craniofacial and masticatory complex. The goal of this study was to quantify the relative genetic influence on arch dimensions and the nature of this influence at different points along the maxillary arcade. Referencing virtual, three-dimensional dental cast scans, widths were measured at different points between the a) maxillary left and right canines, and b) maxillary left and right first molars (M1). Specifically, measurements were taken at the inner (lingual) gingival margin, …

Validation Of Rotoscoping Method For Two-Marker Bones In The Alligator Forearm, Nina Pitre

Biology Student Scholarship

Nina Pitre ’22
Majors: Biology and Psychology
Faculty Mentor: Dr. David Baier, Biology

XROMM methods "re-animate" 3D skeletal motion of living animals by aligning digital bone models to X-ray videos. Surgically implanted markers permit automatic alignment of bone models if three or more markers are used. However, one of our specimens only had two markers implanted. These bones could be automatically positioned and partially oriented using the two markers, but then required manual alignment to the X-ray images to orient about the axis passing between the two markers. Here, we validated the method by digitally removing a marker from a …

Individual Trophic Niche Specialization In American Beaver (Castor Canadensis), Jimmy Taylor, Robert Francis, Scott Rush, Bronson Strickland, Guiming Wang

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

The American beaver (Castor canadensis) has been described as a choosy generalist at the species/population scale, yet observational studies have shown little variation in diet among individuals. We compared isotopic values of δ¹³C or δ¹⁵N taken from hair of 32 beaver, representing seven colonies in northern Alabama, USA to determine 1) if colonies of beaver show overlap in isotopic niche width as a result of the similar use of food resources and 2) if individual trophic niche specialization occurs within colonies. Total Trophic Niche Width varied across the wetland with the widest being twice …

Editorial: Special Issue “Innovative Techniques And Approaches In The Control And Prevention Of Rabies Virus”, Amy T. Gilbert, Ryan M. Wallace, Charles E. Rupprecht

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Rabies is an ancient lethal scourge that has plagued humankind for centuries. Globally, 60,000 human deaths are estimated to occur each year from rabies virus (RABV) transmission in domestic dogs, mostly affecting children. While rabies is recognized as a neglected disease, there is cause for optimism in the context of growing global recognition, collaboration and commitment to advance a tripartite agenda to eliminate human deaths transmitted from rabid dogs by 2030, also known as “Zero By Thirty” (ZBT). Nevertheless, the ZBT goal must also confront competing challenge(s) of tracking and mitigating human morbidity and mortality during a global pandemic caused …

Can We Use Antipredator Behavior Theory To Predict Wildlife Responses To High-Speed Vehicles?, Ryan B. Lunn, Bradley Blackwell, Travis L. Devault, Esteban Fernández-Juricic

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Animals seem to rely on antipredator behavior to avoid vehicle collisions. There is an extensive body of antipredator behavior theory that have been used to predict the distance/time animals should escape from predators. These models have also been used to guide empirical research on escape behavior from vehicles. However, little is known as to whether antipredator behavior models are appropriate to apply to an approaching high-speed vehicle scenario. We addressed this gap by (a) providing an overview of the main hypotheses and predictions of different antipredator behavior models via a literature review, (b) exploring whether these models can generate quantitative …

Economic Consequences Of The Wolf Comeback In The Western United States, Dana Hoag, Stewart W. Breck, Kevin Crooks, Becky Niemiec

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Gray wolves were eradicated from most of the United States in the 1940’s but have made a comeback in parts of their historic range over the last two decades. First reintroduced into the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and central Idaho in the mid-1990’s, wolves have subsequently dispersed into at least 7 western states. Coloradoans became the latest state to take interest in bolstering wolf populations, as residents passed a ballot initiative in November 2020 to reintroduce a self-sustaining population of gray wolves by the end of 2023. Conflicts between people in rural areas that might incur costs (such as livestock loss) …

Understanding Continent-Wide Variation In Vulture Ranging Behavior To Assess Feasibility Of Vulture Safe Zones In Africa: Challenges And Possibilities, Adam Kane, Ara Monadjem, H. K.Ortwin Aschenborn, Keith Bildstein, André Botha, Claire Bracebridge, Evan R. Buechley, Ralph Buij, John P. Davies, Maria Diekmann, Colleen T. Downs, Nina Farwig, Toby Galligan, Gregory Kaltenecker, Chris Kelly, Ryno Kemp, Holger Kolberg, Monique L. Mackenzie, John Mendelsohn, Msafiri Mgumba, Ran Nathan, Aaron Nicholas, Darcy Ogada, Morgan Pfeiffer, W. Louis Phipps, Matteuns D. Pretorius, Sascha Rösner, Dana G. Schabo, Gabriel Lita Shatumbu, Orr Spiegel, Lindy J. Thompson, Jan A. Venter, Munir Virani, Kerri Wolter, Corinne J. Kendall

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Protected areas are intended as tools in reducing threats to wildlife and preserving habitat for their long-term population persistence. Studies on ranging behavior provide insight into the utility of protected areas. Vultures are one of the fastest declining groups of birds globally and are popular subjects for telemetry studies, but continent-wide studies are lacking. To address how vultures use space and identify the areas and location of possible vulture safe zones, we assess home range size and their overlap with protected areas by species, age, breeding status, season, and region using a large continent-wide telemetry datasets that includes 163 individuals …

European Starling Use Of Nest Boxes Relative To Human Disturbance, Bradley Blackwell, Bruce N. Buckingham, Morgan B. Pfeiffer

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

gars and to engine and flight surfaces of moored aircraft. We questioned whether consistent removal of nest material would negatively affect use of a nest site, measured by a reduction in material accumulation. We conducted our study on a 2,200-ha site in Erie County, Ohio, USA (41° 22’ N, 82° 41’ W), from April 15 through June 2, 2020. We used 120 wooden nest boxes on utility poles, protected by an aluminum predator guard below the box. Our treatments included (1) twice weekly, repeated nest material removal (RMR; n = 40 nest boxes); (2) complete nest removal, but only after …

Stepping-Stones And Mediators Of Pandemic Expansion: A Context For Humans As Ecological Super-Spreaders, Eric P. Hoberg, Walter A. Boeger, Daniel R. Brooks, Valeria Trivellone, Salvatore J. Agosta

MANTER: Journal of Parasite Biodiversity

Humans represent ecological super-spreaders in the dissemination and introduction of pathogens. These processes, consistent with the dynamics of the Stockholm paradigm, are exemplified in the origin and globalized distributions of SARS-CoV-2 since initial recognition in central Asia during 2019 and 2020. SARS-like viruses are not widespread in mammals but appear widespread in chiropterans. Bats are isolated ecologically from most other assemblages of mammals in terrestrial systems. Humans may be the stepping-stone hosts for broad global dissemination and wider infection (given the opportunity) among diverse assemblages of mammals in which host and viral capacity are compatible. Human globalization mediated insertion in …

A Review Of The Impacts Of Invasive Wild Pigs On Native Vertebrates, Matthew T. Mcdonough, Stephen S. Ditchkoff, Mark D. Smith, Kurt C. Vercauteren

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

The wild pig (Sus scrofa) is a successful invasive species that has become well established outside of its native range in Eurasia. The invasive wild pig is the result of released or escaped domesticated livestock becoming feral, or Eurasian boar introduced for hunting purposes. The global spread of wild pigs has recently been exacerbated in some areas, such as the USA, by anthropogenically assisted dispersal. Once established in novel ecosystems, wild pigs have the potential to have significant negative impacts on the ecosystem, and the scientific literature is replete with examples. It is generally accepted that wild pigs …

Use Of A Direct, Rapid Immunohistochemical Test For Diagnosis Of Rabies Virus In Bats, Charles E. Rupprecht, Lolita Van Pelt, April D. Davis, Richard B. Chipman, David L. Bergman

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Rabies, a zoonotic encephalitis due to transmission of a lyssavirus, such as rabies virus (RABV), has the highest case fatality of any infectious disease. A global program for the elimination of human rabies caused by dogs is proposed for realization by 2030. Sensitive, specific, and inexpensive diagnostic tests are necessary for enhanced surveillance to detect infection, inform public health and veterinary professionals during risk assessments of exposure, and support overall programmatic goals. Multiple laboratory techniques are used to confirm a suspect case of rabies. One method for the detection of lyssavirus antigens within the brain is the direct rapid immunohistochemical …

Optimizing Management Of Invasions In An Uncertain World Using Dynamic Spatial Models, Kim M. Pepin, Amy J. Davis, Rebecca S. Epanchin-Niell, Andrew M. Gormley, Joslin L. Moore, Timothy J. Smyser, H. Bradley Shaffer, William L. Kendall, Katriona Shea, Michael C. Runge, Sophie Mckee

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Dispersal drives invasion dynamics of nonnative species and pathogens. Applying knowledge of dispersal to optimize the management of invasions can mean the difference between a failed and a successful control program and dramatically improve the return on investment of control efforts. A common approach to identifying optimal management solutions for invasions is to optimize dynamic spatial models that incorporate dispersal. Optimizing these spatial models can be very challenging because the interaction of time, space, and uncertainty rapidly amplifies the number of dimensions being considered. Addressing such problems requires advances in and the integration of techniques from multiple fields, including ecology, …

An Efficient Method Of Evaluating Multiple Concurrent Management Actions On Invasive Populations, Amy J. Davis, Randy Farrar, Brad Jump, Parker Hall, Travis Guerrant, Kim M. Pepin

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Evaluating the efficacy of management actions to control invasive species is crucial for maintaining funding and to provide feedback for the continual improvement of management efforts. However, it is often difficult to assess the efficacy of control methods due to limited resources for monitoring. Managers may view effort on monitoring as effort taken away from performing management actions. We developed a method to estimate invasive species abundance, evaluate management effectiveness, and evaluate population growth over time from a combination of removal activities (e.g., trapping, ground shooting) using only data collected during removal efforts (method of removal, date, location, number of …

Economics Of Cormorant Predation On Catfish Farms, Carole Engle, Ganesh Kumar, Terrel Christie, Brian S. Dorr, Brian Davis, Luke Roy, Anita Kelly

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

The Double-crested Cormorant is the primary avian predator on catfish farms causing significant economic losses primarily due to 1) on-farm expenditures related to bird-management activities and 2) value of the catfish lost to cormorants. This comprehensive economic study quantified these two economic effects by surveying catfish farms in the delta regions of Mississippi and Arkansas. On-farm expenditures for bird scaring were used to quantify bird-management costs. Economic losses from fish consumed by cormorants were quantified by evaluating data from field studies of the abundance, distribution, and diet of cormorants in the Mississippi delta. This study found that catfish farmers …

No Panacea Attractant For Wild Pigs (Sus Scrofa), But Season And Location Matter, Nathan P. Snow, Caitlin A. Kupferman, Michael J. Lavelle, Kim M. Pepin, Madeline H. Melton, Whitney J. Gann, Kurt C. Vercauteren, James C. Beasley

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) are a prolific invasive species throughout many regions of the world that cause extensive economic and environmental damage. Trapping is a common strategy for reducing their populations with baits (i.e., food) and attractants (e.g., scents) used to lure wild pigs into traps. However, there is little information on which scent attractants may attract wild pigs more readily and rapidly across regions and seasons. We examined 60 scent attractants for wild pigs that could be used to increase trapping success across three seasons (winter, spring, and fall) and in two geographic regions, including a warm …

Predation Thresholds For Reintroduction Of Native Avifauna Following Suppression Of Invasive Brown Treesnakes On Guam, Robert M. Mcelderry, Eben H. Paxton, Andre V. Nguyen, Shane R. Siers

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

The brown treesnake (BTS) (Boiga irregularis) invasion on Guåhan (in English, Guam) led to the extirpation of nearly all native forest birds. In recent years, methods have been developed to reduce BTS abundance on a landscape scale. To help assess the prospects for the successful reintroduction of native birds to Guåhan following BTS suppression, we modeled bird population persistence based on their life history characteristics and relative sensitivity to BTS predation. We constructed individual-based models and simulated BTS predation in hypothetical founding populations for each of seven candidate bird species. We represented BTS predation risk in two steps: …

Conserving Endangered Black-Footed Ferrets: Biological Threats, Political Challenges, And Lessons Learned, Travis M. Livieri, Steven C. Forrest, Marc R. Matchett, Stewart Breck

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

There may be few stories in the annals of wildlife management that are as dramatic as the near demise and comeback of the black-footed ferret (Mustela nigripes). Endemic only to North America, this charming little carnivore found only in the continent’s central grasslands was hardly known to science until the mid-20th century. By then, vast colonies of the prey it depended on for food and shelter, the prairie dog (Cynomys spp.), had been wiped out through disease (sylvatic plague) and an agricultural industry with little tolerance for burrowing and grazing rodents. At its low point, the species’ …

Foot Injuries In Michigan, Usa, Gray Wolves (Canis Lupus), 1992–2014, Daniel J. O'Brien, Dean E. Beyer Jr., Erin Largent, Julie R. Melotti, Caitlin N. Ott-Conn, Donald H. Lonsway, Thomas M. Cooley, Robert Atkinson, Michelle Clayson, Kelly A. Straka

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

The range of gray wolves (Canis lupus) in the contiguous US is expanding. Research and monitoring to support population recovery and management often involves capture via foothold traps. A population-level epidemiologic assessment of the effect of trap injuries on wolf survival remains needed to inform management. We describe the baseline rate, type, and severity of foot injuries of wolves born 1992–2013 in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, evaluate the reliability of field-scoring trap-related injuries, and the effect of injuries on wolf survival. We assessed foot injuries by physical and radiographic exam at postmortem and/or time of capture for 351 wolves using the …

Olfactory Lures In Predator Control Do Not Increase Predation Risk To Birds In Areas Of Conservation Concern, Page Klug, Amy A. Yackel Adams, Robert N. Reed

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Context. Lethal control of predators is often undertaken to protect species of conservation concern. Traps are frequently baited to increase capture efficacy, but baited traps can potentially increase predation risk by attracting predators to protected areas. This is especially important if targeted predators can escape capture due to low trap success. Snake traps using live mouse lures may be beneficial if traps effectively remove snakes in the presence of birds and do not attract additional snakes to the area.

Aims. The present study evaluated whether mouse-lure traps in areas occupied by birds (simulated by deploying birdlure traps) could influence predation …

Wild Pig Removal Reduces Pathogenic Bacteria In Low-Order Streams, Sara A. Bolds, B. Graeme Lockaby, Latif Kalin, Stephen S. Ditchkoff, Mark D. Smith, Kurt Vercauteren

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Invasive wild pig populations have undergone enormous increases in the United States and particularly across the southern U.S. in recent years. High fecundity rates and abilities to adapt quickly to varied habitats have enabled pig populations to become entrenched and difficult to eliminate. The pigs cause many negative impacts on ecosystems including degradation of water quality through infusion of fecal contamination and other non-point source pollutants. Our goal was to determine the effects of pig removal on water quality in streams that were known to be significantly polluted by pig activity Bolds (J Environ Qual 50: 441–453, 2021). We compared …

Plague Risk In The Western United States Over Seven Decades Of Environmental Change, Colin J. Carlson, Sarah N. Bevins, Boris V. Schmid

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

After several pandemics over the last two millennia, the wildlife reservoirs of plague (Yersinia pestis) now persist around the world, including in the western United States. Routine surveillance in this region has generated comprehensive records of human cases and animal seroprevalence, creating a unique opportunity to test how plague reservoirs are responding to environmental change. Here, we test whether animal and human data suggest that plague reservoirs and spillover risk have shifted since 1950. To do so, we develop a new method for detecting the impact of climate change on infectious disease distributions, capable of disentangling long-term trends (signal) and …