Risk Analysis Commons^™

A Ulysses Pact With Artificial Systems. How To Deliberately Change The Objective Spirit With Cultured Ai, Bruno Gransche

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

The article introduces a concept of cultured technology, i.e. intelligent systems capable of interacting with humans and showing (or simulating) manners, of following customs and of socio-sensitive considerations. Such technologies might, when deployed on a large scale, influence and change the realm of human customs, traditions, standards of acceptable behavior, etc. This realm is known as the "objective spirit" (Hegel), which usually is thought of as being historically changing but not subject to deliberate human design. The article investigates the question of whether the purposeful design of interactive technologies (as cultured technologies) could enable us to shape modes of …

A Metacognitive Approach To Trust And A Case Study: Artificial Agency, Ioan Muntean

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

Trust is defined as a belief of a human H (`the trustor') about the ability of an agent A (the `trustee') to perform future action(s). We adopt here dispositionalism and internalism about trust: H trusts A iff A has some internal dispositions as competences. The dispositional competences of A are high-level metacognitive requirements, in the line of a naturalized virtue epistemology. (Sosa, Carter) We advance a Bayesian model of two (i) confidence in the decision and (ii) model uncertainty. To trust A, H demands A to be self-assertive about confidence and able to self-correct its own models. In the Bayesian …

Modeling The Economic Machine Using Bayesian Inference And Statistical Networks, And Optimal Portfolio Construction Using Operations Research, Richard Yang

ENGS 88 Honors Thesis (AB Students)

In this paper, we propose a network-based model to attempt to connect modern macroeconomic theory with real world economic observations and trends. We find that by extending macroeconomic theory with credit leveraging/deleveraging thresholds, we are able to explain economic cycles in addition to long-term growth. Furthermore, we specifically explore the growth-inflation view of the macro economy as a basis for optimal portfolio construction and efficient asset trading. Connecting our network-based macroeconomic model and our optimal portfolio construction algorithm, we create a novel macroeconomic asset-trading framework.

Keeping Anonymity At The Consumer Behavior On The Internet: Proof Of Sacrifice, Sachio Horie

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

The evolution of the Internet and AI technology has made it possible for the government and the businesses to keep track of their personal lives. GAFA continues to collect information unintended by the individuals. It is a threat that our privacy is violated in this way. In order to solute such problems, it is important to consider a mechanism that enables us to be peaceful lives while protecting privacy in the Internet society.

This paper focuses on the consumption behavior on the Internet and addresses anonymity. We consider some network protocols that enable sustainable consensus by combining anonymity methods such …

Legal And Technical Issues For Text And Data Mining In Greece, Maria Kanellopoulou - Botti, Marinos Papadopoulos, Christos Zampakolas, Paraskevi Ganatsiou

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

Web harvesting and archiving pertains to the processes of collecting from the web and archiving of works that reside on the Web. Web harvesting and archiving is one of the most attractive applications for libraries which plan ahead for their future operation. When works retrieved from the Web are turned into archived and documented material to be found in a library, the amount of works that can be found in said library can be far greater than the number of works harvested from the Web. The proposed participation in the 2019 CEPE Conference aims at presenting certain issues related to …

On The Responsibility For Uses Of Downstream Software, Marty J. Wolf, Keith W. Miller, Frances S. Grodzinsky

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

In this paper we explore an issue that is different from whether developers are responsible for the direct impact of the software they write. We examine, instead, in what ways, and to what degree, developers are responsible for the way their software is used “downstream.” We review some key scholarship analyzing responsibility in computing ethics, including some recent work by Floridi. We use an adaptation of a mechanism developed by Floridi to argue that there are features of software that can be used as guides to better distinguish situations where a software developer might share in responsibility for the software’s …

Understanding The Privacy Methods, Implications, And Challenges Of Educational Data Mining., Tyler Blanco, Liam Smith

CURCE Annual Undergraduate Conference

Studies on educational data mining have massively advanced the analytical understanding of student learning, outcome predictions, student modeling, and better evaluation. While the information retrieved can improve educational outcomes, such studies must not break the wall of trust or compromise student privacy. To this end, it’s imperative to understand the methods of how privacy is ensured in the field of educational data mining and learning analytics, the limitations of these strategies, the complications that may follow, and the possible resolutions. In this project, we take a systematic approach to review studies in the educational data mining field. Initially, we examine …

Analysis Of Computer Audit Data To Create Indicators Of Compromise For Intrusion Detection, Steven Millett, Michael Toolin, Justin Bates

SMU Data Science Review

Network security systems are designed to identify and, if possible, prevent unauthorized access to computer and network resources. Today most network security systems consist of hardware and software components that work in conjunction with one another to present a layered line of defense against unauthorized intrusions. Software provides user interactive layers such as password authentication, and system level layers for monitoring network activity. This paper examines an application monitoring network traffic that attempts to identify Indicators of Compromise (IOC) by extracting patterns in the network traffic which likely corresponds to unauthorized access. Typical network log data and construct indicators are …

A Unified Risk-Based Framework For Assessing Sustainability And Resiliency Of Civil Infrastructure, Thomas Adam Robbins

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

As of February 2019, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has reported since 1880 the average global temperature has increased 1°C, with the warmest year on record being 2016. As the years continue to pass, it is becoming more evident that climate change is occurring, which is known to be a catalyst for climatic weather events. Statistically speaking, these events are more prevalent, and catastrophic exemplified as hurricanes, earthquakes, flooding, and fires. In addition to the increase of potentially catastrophic events, society as a whole has become more conscientious in the use and preservation of natural resources, waste generation, …

Incentivizing Cyber Security Investment In The Power Sector Using An Extended Cyber Insurance Framework, Jack P. Rosson, Mason J. Rice, Juan Lopez Jr., R. David Fass

Faculty Publications

Collaboration between the DHS Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and public-sector partners has revealed that a dearth of cyber-incident data combined with the unpredictability of cyber attacks have contributed to a shortfall in first-party cyber insurance protection in the critical infrastructure community. This research explores the foundations of insurance theory and adopts behavioral manipulation methods to incentivize cyber-security investment. We validate the model by applying power industry performance data from 2013-2015 to assess risk facing the industry. Results show that the model can successfully discriminate between individual power companies as well as geographic regions on the basis of risk …

Seismic Performance Of Earth Slopes Subjected To Earthquake Mainshock – Aftershock Sequences, Alisha Khanal

Civil Engineering Theses

Mainshocks are usually followed by aftershocks. Aftershocks continue over a period of time with a decreasing frequency and there is not sufficient time for repair and retrofit between a mainshock – aftershock sequence. Typically, aftershocks are smaller in magnitude; however, aftershock ground motion characteristics such as the intensity and duration can be greater than the mainshock due to the changes in the earthquake mechanism and location with respect to the site. The seismic performance of slopes is typically evaluated based on the sliding displacement predicted to occur along a critical sliding surface. Various empirical models are available that predict sliding …

Management Support For Safety: Disrupting The Paradigm, Scotty Dunlap

EKU Faculty and Staff Scholarship

It is a challenge that has been accepted by safety professionals in both recent and long-past generations. We have accepted it as part of the unchangeable status quo, and it is a challenge that has been met with mixed success in individual careers and across the safety profession as a whole. We have filled safety academic programs of study and professional development seminar rosters with tricks of the trade on how to accomplish this daunting task.

Quantifying Impact Of Cyber Actions On Missions Or Business Processes: A Multilayer Propagative Approach, Unal Tatar

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Ensuring the security of cyberspace is one of the most significant challenges of the modern world because of its complexity. As the cyber environment is getting more integrated with the real world, the direct impact of cybersecurity problems on actual business frequently occur. Therefore, operational and strategic decision makers in particular need to understand the cyber environment and its potential impact on business. Cyber risk has become a top agenda item for businesses all over the world and is listed as one of the most serious global risks with significant financial implications for businesses.

Risk analysis is one of the …

Hazard And Operability Analysis Of An Ethylene Oxide Production Plant, Samantha Ciricillo

Senior Theses

The purpose of this work was to evaluate potential hazards and failures as part of the design and economic analysis for a chemical plant that would produce 150,000 tons of ethylene oxide per year. The Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) method of analysis was used to accomplish this goal. This method of hazard analysis involves brainstorming potential errors in a system by examining each element of each process unit in full detail. This project was focused on the reactor unit because the reactor has several important parameters that could fail, resulting in safety issues within the system. Input for this analysis …

An Investigation Of General Criteria For Assessing Space Flight Systems Of Diverse Mission Concept Designs, Cindy L. Daniels

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of this research is to investigate the general criteria for assessing the technical implementation risk factors of proposed space science missions at the mission concept stage. According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Space Flight Program and Project Management Handbook (NASA, 2012), the mission concept review objectives are “To evaluate the feasibility of the proposed mission concept(s) and its fulfillment of the program's needs and objectives. To determine whether the maturity of the concept and associated planning are sufficient to begin Phase A” (p.33). Experts previously defined two technical risk factors, to assess aspects of the …

Latex Modified Concrete - Very Early Strength, Bobby Steele

Purdue Road School

INDOT came out with specifications for a very early strength concrete to use on bridge deck overlays. This concrete is fast setting, which allows overlays to be performed over a weekend and benefits the traveling public with a short duration of traffic interference. Cure time to reach the strength requirement is 3 hours. E&B Paving performed the first application with the new spec on August 26, 2018. Many changes were also made to the INDOT Specification Section 722.

Standardisation In Construction Cost Control, Charles Mitchell

Other Resources

Poster presentation submitted as to the School of Surveying and Construction Management Research and Innovation Industry Evening, March 2019.

Fico® Scores Through The Economic Cycle And Understanding Consumer Sensitivities To Economic Fluctuations, Gerald Fahner

SDSU Data Science Symposium

FICO® Scores assess default likelihood under “normal” conditions. Additional risk emanates from economic variability and manifests itself in changes to the score distribution as well as changes to the Odds-to-Score relationship. In this session we will examine credit bureau data from the Great Recession in the United States as compared to a stable economic period. We’ll share a framework that provides new and actionable insights into consumers’ sensitivities to such economic fluctuations such as:

• Application of counterfactual analysis, machine learning, and scorecards, to rank-order consumers’ sensitivities

• Consumer segmentation by economic sensitivities

• Sensitivity profiling reveals interesting differences between the most and …

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Project Insight: A Granular Approach To Enterprise Cybersecurity, Sunna Quazi, Adam Baca, Sam Darsche

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we disambiguate risky activity corporate users are propagating with their software in real time by creating an enterprise security visualization solution for system administrators. The current problem in this domain is the lag in cyber intelligence that inhibits preventative security measure execution. This is partially due to the overemphasis of network activity, which is a nonfinite dataset and is difficult to comprehensively ingest with analytics. We address these concerns by elaborating on the beta of a software called "Insight" created by Felix Security. The overall solution leverages endpoint data along with preexisting whitelist/blacklist designations to unambiguously communicate …

Lecture 1: Stochastic Hydrology, Julianne Quinn

All ECSTATIC Materials

This is the first lecture of CE 5500: Stochastic Hydrology, taught by Julianne Quinn at the University of Virginia.

Autojack - Hydraulic Powertrain System, Tyce Vu

All Undergraduate Projects

A primary problem for mechanics and automotive enthusiasts is the risk associated with lifting and securing a vehicle with conventional jack stands. Often times, improper jack-stand installation results in the vehicle collapsing unexpectedly, causing injury and/or death. This problem can be minimized through the application of a newly re-designed vehicle lifting system. The conventional method for lifting cars is time consuming and can be unsafe in many circumstances. A better, safer, and more efficient lift design was needed; the AutoJack. The approach of the AutoJack design was entirely focused on the safety of lifting a vehicle. Safety was improved by …

Ce 5500: Stochastic Hydrology, University Of Virginia, Julianne Quinn

All ECSTATIC Materials

This document is the syllabus for CE 5500: Stochastic Hydrology by instructor Julianne D. Quinn at the University of Virginia. The course is an elective class, open to upper-level undergraduate and graduate students.

Influence Of Limit Equilibrium Methods In The Design Of Contiguous Cantilever Sheet Pile Walls Through Reliability-Based Analysis, Alvaro J. Mattos, Juan Camilo Viviescas, Juan Pablo Osorio

Conference papers

In geotechnical engineering the design of bored- pile walls is commonly performed in terms of the embedment length (D) defined according to the limit equilibrium methods (also known as balance methods) formulated by Krey, Blum, Rowe, Hansen and the empirical method of Look in sandy soils. The limit equilibrium methods are calculations associated with the shape of the earth pressures distributions in the shaft, earth pressures theories, geotechnical properties and safety factors, while the empirical criteria establish that the relationship between embedment and the free height (H) is of the order of D/H = 1.5. These design methods are complemented …

Étude Exploratoire Sur Les Pratiques Des Fabricants De Machines Au Québec En Lien Avec L’Intégration De La Sécurité Des Machines Dès Leur Conception, Yuvin Chinniah, François Gauthier, George Abdul-Nour, Sabrina Jocelyn, Barthélemy Aucourt, Guy Bordeleau

Rapports de recherche scientifique

Le présent rapport est destiné principalement à tout organisme québécois œuvrant en matière de prévention des lésions professionnelles (ex. : la Commission des normes, de l’équité, de la santé et de la sécurité du travail (CNESST), les associations sectorielles paritaires (ASP)), pour un ou plusieurs secteurs industriels donnés. Il porte sur une étude exploratoire concernant l’intégration de la sécurité dès la conception des machines et qui a été réalisée auprès de fabricants. Ce rapport intéressera également les concepteurs et fabricants désireux de se renseigner sur la manière dont la sécurité est prise en compte dans la mise en œuvre de …

Capital Efficiency For Development Stage Biotech-Based Firms: An Ipo Perspective, Mark J. Ahn, Amir Shaygan

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Access to multiple tranches of capital is critical for predominantly no revenue development stage biotech firms. While financing needs are monotonically increasing over multiple years in the product development approval cycle, the market for high risk, milestone driven biotech investment is significantly more volatile than the financial markets as a whole. In this paper, we analyzed the role and relative importance of global biotech IPOs, as well as other sources of capital such as strategic alliances, for research and development funding. We also explored and assessed the degree of mismatch between the access to capital, operational efficiencies, and how firms …

Management Strategy Evaluation: Transdisciplinary And Transparent Natural Resource Management, Eileen Hofmann, Lisa Maddison, Ingrid Van Putten

CCPO Publications

Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) is a modelling tool used to evaluate sufficiently realistic simulations of potential policy choices in complex systems. As a contribution to the Integrated Marine Biosphere Research (IMBeR) project IMBIZO V, which occurred in October 2017, a workshop was convened with the goal of developing a coherent understanding of best-practice approaches for MSEs. MSEs are becoming standard approaches to characterizing risk across fisheries management organizations globally. MSEs are important tools that aid in delineating objectives, costs, and constraints that define risk and provide a possible mechanism to meet assessment challenges. The MSE workshop considered case studies drawn …

Cataloging The Degree Of Sensitization Via Electrochemical Reactivation For Studying The Corrosion Behavior Of Inconel 718, Austenitic, And Duplex Stainless Steels, Bradley Lynes

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

Corrosion resistant materials can be expensive, but usually reduce the life cycle cost of metallic assets. However, negligent sensitization of these materials can lead to aggressive, intergranular corrosion. Using the methodology of the double loop electrochemical potentiokinetic reactivation (DL-EPR), this project investigates different steel reinforced bars and Inconel to determine the degree of sensitization after a heat treatment of 900°C for 2 hours. The purpose of this research is to validate and determine the appropriate test parameters for performing further DL-EPR test in the future. Additionally, the kinetics observed for each sample during the DL-EPR test will be analyzed and …

Offshore Wind Farms And Maritime Navigational Risks, Syed Raza Ali Mehdi

World Maritime University Ph.D. Dissertations

The offshore wind energy sector (OWE) has experienced significant growth in the last few decades. Since the inception of the very first offshore wind farm (OWF) – Vindeby – in 1991, there have been major improvements in materials, structures, aerodynamics, hydrodynamics technologies, as well as substantial developments in installation, operations, maintenance and decommissioning strategies. These advances have led to a rapid increase in the numbers and sizes of both offshore winds turbines (OWTs) and OWFs, and driven down the cost of OWE generation. With further improvements imminent, and increasing societal popularity, the strong evolution of the OWE sector is predicted …

Landing-Gear Impact Response: A Non-Linear Finite Element Approach, Tuan H. Tran

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The primary objective of this research is to formulate a methodology of assessing the maximum impact loading condition that will incur onto an aircraft’s landing gear system via Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and appropriately determining its corresponding structural and impact responses to minimize potential design failures during hard landing (abnormal impact) and shock absorption testing. Both static and dynamic loading condition were closely analyzed, compared, and derived through the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) airworthiness regulations and empirical testing data.

In this research, a nonlinear transient dynamic analysis is developed and established via NASTRAN advanced nonlinear finite element model (FEM) to …