Risk Analysis Commons^™

Transportation Safety Performance Of Us Bus Transit Agencies And Population Density: A Cross-Sectional Analysis (2008-2014), Ilker Karaca, Peter T. Savolainen

Ilker Karaca

The paper examines the transportation safety performance of transit agencies providing public bus service in the US by using data from the National Transit Database (NTD)

Uses NTD data for a seven-year period from 2008 to 2014 • 3,853 observations for 651 public transportation agencies in 50 states

Seven types of bus transit fatalities and injuries (including passengers, operators, pedestrians, bicyclists)

Main explanatory variable: urban density obtained from the US Census figures

Other explanatory variables: total agency revenue miles, unlinked passenger trips, agency fleet size, and urban population

Nchrp Synthesis 499: Alternate Design/Alternate Bid Process For Pavement-Type Selection. A Synthesis Of Highway Practice, Douglas D. Gransberg, Ashley F. Buss, Ilker Karaca, Michael C. Loulakis

Ilker Karaca

Highway administrators, engineers, and researchers often face problems for which information already exists, either in documented form or as undocumented experience and practice. This information may be fragmented, scattered, and unevaluated. As a consequence, full knowledge of what has been learned about a problem may not be brought to bear on its solution. Costly research findings may go unused, valuable experience may be overlooked, and due consideration may not be given to recommended practices for solving or alleviating the problem. There is information on nearly every subject of concern to highway administrators and engineers. Much of it derives from research …

Top-Down Construction Cost Estimating Model Using An Artificial Neural Network, Douglas D. Gransberg, H. David Jeong, Ilker Karaca, Brendon Gardner

Ilker Karaca

This report contains the information and background on top-down cost estimating using artificial neural networks (ANN)_to enhance the accuracy of MDT early estimates of construction costs. Upon conducting an extensive review of MDT’s budgeting and cost estimating efforts, and following a survey of agency experts on the identification of the most salient project attributes with the dual-objectives of low effort and high accuracy, a rational method for top-down variable selection is proposed. Selected variables were further tested in their explanatory power of construction costs through the application of two cost estimating methodologies—multiple regression and artificial neural network methodologies. Both methods …

Not-So-Risky Business? Assessing The Risk Of Integrating Large Rpvs Into The Current Air Traffic System, Hans-Joachim K. Ruff-Stahl, Steven Esser, Dirk Farsch, Thomas Graner, Robert Klein, Christian Schneidt, Stefan Schoenborn

Hans-Joachim Ruff-Stahl

In spite of considerable efforts to commercialize large remotely piloted vehicles (RPV), an integration of these RPVs into the existing Air Transportation System (ATS) and Airspace Structure is pending. The purpose of this paper was to assess the risks of an exemplary integration of a Heron 1 type RPV into the existing European air space structure within the current regulatory framework and without the availability of sense and avoid technology. Six incident occurrence scenarios were investigated, based on a modified Fault Tree Analysis and Eurocontrol’s risk matrix. It was found that without the implementation of technological or procedural changes, an …

High Consequence Scenarios For North Korean Atmospheric Nuclear Tests With Policy Recommendations For The U.S. Government, Thomas S. Popik, Jordan T. Kearns, George H. Baker Iii, Henry F. Cooper, William R. Harris

George H Baker

The government of North Korea has declared high-altitude EMP-capability to be a “strategic goal” and has also threatened an atmospheric test of a hydrogen bomb. Atmospheric nuclear tests have the potential to cripple satellites and the undersea cable networks critical to communication, and navigation necessary for trans-Pacific trade among the U.S., China, and other nations. When a nuclear warhead is detonated at high altitude, a series of electromagnetic pulses radiate downward within the line of sight of the blast. These pulses can disable equipment with miniature electronics and long conductors. Electric grid controls and transmission systems are especially vulnerable. Intense …

Hispanic Maternal And Children's Perceptions Of Neighborhood Safety Related To Walking And Cycling, Norma Olvera, Dennis W. Smith, Chanam Lee, Jian Liu, Jay Lee, Stephanie Kellam, Jun-Hyun Kim

Jian Liu

This study examined neighborhood safety as perceived by children (mean age=10 years) and their mothers, and its association with children's physical activity. For all eight safety items examined, children perceived their environment as less dangerous than mothers (p<0.05). None of the multiple regression models predicting children's physical activity by safety perceptions were significant (p>0.10). The maternal perception model explained the highest percentage of variance (R2=0.26), compared to the children's perception model (R2=0.22). Findings suggest that future studies should explore relations between self-reported and objectively measured safety barriers to Hispanic youth walking and cycling.

A Review Focujsed On The Psychological Effectiveness Of Tai Chi On Different Populations, Long Zhang, Thomas Lowder, Jian Liu

Jian Liu

No abstract provided.

Aging Effect On Foot Dynamics During Unexpected Slips, Jian Liu, Thurmon E. Lockhart

Jian Liu

Slip-induced fall accidents have been recognized as a serious threat to the health of the elderly.The objective of the current study was to investigate the aging effect on the biomechanical reactions of both perturbed foot and unperturbed foot to the unexpected slips. Nineteen younger (mean age: 25.0 years old) and twenty-one older (mean age: 71.2 years old) adults were involved in a laboratory study,in which slippery surface was induced during walking without their awareness.The reactive responses of both slipping foot and unperturbed foot were quantified by optical motion capture system and force platforms.The results indicate a characteristic toe-touch strategy by …

Processus De Décision Et Complexité: Le Feu De Yarnell Hill Du 30 Juin 2013 [Decision-Making Processes And Complexity: The Yarnell Hill Fire Of June 30th, 2013], Karim Hardy, Louise K. Comfort

Karim Hardy

Re-forming the information stream in decision processes after severe accidents allows scientists aRecréer les flux d’information au sein des processus de décision après une catastrophe permet aux chercheurs ainsi qu’aux décideurs d’identifier les points à partir desquels une action défaillante débute ainsi que les écarts dans les processus d’information qui pourraient être corrigés afin de réduire les futurs lors de futurs incidents. Le 30 juin 2013, le feu de Yarnell Hill en Arizona (Etats-Unis) évolue rapidement dans des conditions environnementale et managériale très difficiles menant à l’effondrement de la stratégie de lutte et à la perte de dix-neuf sapeurs-pompiers de …

Hazard Mitigation Through A Systemic Model Of Accident To A Socio-Technical System: A Case Study, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Karim Hardy

This paper presents the STAMP (systems-theoretic accident modeling and processes) accident model, based on systems theory, and describes its application in the context of risk prevention related to the remediation of contaminated sediments. The implementation of the model is described, and results are presented both in methodological and technical terms. The goal of this article is to emphasize the need of new approaches to take into account hazards and accidents within socio-technical systems.

Decisions Management During Wildland Fires: Accidents Viewed As A Spatiotemporal Inadequacy, Karim Hardy

Karim Hardy

Extreme situations as wildland fires are a source of stress and pressure. In such events, decision-makers and incident commanders need to address a specific problem: how to manage time and resources to make meaningful decisions? Current models of accidents that exist to explain and manage catastrophes and disasters are inadequate and insufficient to deal with resources and time pressure due to uncertainty within a complex organization. Current incident response structures are incompetent and impotent to handle effectively a dynamic evolution of space and time in order to bring a situation back to stability adequately.

Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Karim Hardy

Processes for remediation (removal of pollution or contaminants) of contaminated sediments have been very efficient. These technologies, which are particularly complex, call for a comprehensive approach to risk analysis which characterises all threats (to humans, equipment, local residents, the environment, etc.) . The STAMP accident model (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) is an example of such a comprehensive approach, and it has been chosen to characterise the risks associated with Novosol (registered trademark), an innovative remediation process.

Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model And Stpa Tool, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Karim Hardy

The goal of this article is dual: first, introducing a new model of accident named STAMP (systems-theoretic accident modeling and processes); then applying the model to an innovative process for the treatment of contaminated substances and the re-use of treated substances. This article is a demonstration for a need of a new tool to take into account hazards and safety within socio-technical systems.

Capturing Cognitive Fingerprints From Keystroke Dynamics, J. Morris Chang, Chi-Chen Fang, Kuan-Hsing Ho, Norene Kelly, Pei-Yuan Wu, Yixiao Ding, Chris Chu, Stephen B. Gilbert, Amed E. Kamal, Sun-Yuan Kung

Morris Chang

Conventional authentication systems identify a user only at the entry point. Keystroke dynamics can continuously authenticate users by their typing rhythms without extra devices. This article presents a new feature called cognitive typing rhythm (CTR) to continuously verify the identities of computer users. Two machine techniques, SVM and KRR, have been developed for the system. The best results from experiments conducted with 1,977 users show a false-rejection rate of 0.7 percent and a false-acceptance rate of 5.5 percent. CTR therefore constitutes a cognitive fingerprint for continuous. Its effectiveness has been verified through a large-scale dataset. This article is part of …

Balancing Research And Funding Using Value Of Information And Portfolio Tools For Nanomaterial Risk Classification

Jeffrey Keisler

Operational Resilience: Concepts, Design And Analysis, Alexander A. Ganin, Emanuelle Massaro, Alexander Gutfraind, Nicholas Steen, Jeffrey Keisler, Alexander Kott, Rami Mangoubi, Igor Linkov

Jeffrey Keisler

Adaptation Of Forward Military Airspace Management For Civilian Uas Emergency Services Operations, John C. Griffith Ph.D., Brent A. Terwilliger Ph.D.

John Griffith

A Household-Level Approach To Staging Wildfire Evacuation Warnings Using Trigger Modeling, Dapeng Li

Dapeng Li

From Human Reliability To Resilience & System Performance - Adapting To A Changing World, Gesa Praetorius, Fulko C. Van Westrenen

Gesa Praetorius

Applying Fram To Enhance Formal Safety Assessment In The Maritime Domain, Gesa Praetorius

Gesa Praetorius

Presentation given at the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) workshop in Olten, Switzerland, 12 June 2015.

Topsis As A Method To Populate Risk Matrix Axes, Christian Salmon, Mohammadsadegh Mobin, Afshan Roshani

Mohammadsadegh Mobin

This research utilizes TOPSIS (a Multi-Criteria ranking methodology) to populate the axes of a risk matrix when modeling risk exposure onboard commercial fishing vessels with the intent to identify mitigating interventions in low risk settings for possible transfer to high risk settings. The specific hazard of interest is the release of refrigerants into confined spaces onboard commercial fishing vessels. The metrics of risk are: 1) expectation that refrigerants are released onboard vessels, and 2) consequence of releases that have occurred. To model expectation: data were collected on the United States’ commercial fisheries, including location and number of participating vessels. These …

Strengthening The Rail Mode Of Transport By Condition Based Preventive Maintenance, René Schenkendorf, Jörn Groos, Lars Johannes

René Schenkendorf

No abstract provided.

The Study Of Safety Governance For Service Robots: On Open-Texture Risk, Yueh-Hsuan Weng

Yueh-Hsuan Weng

Disaster Management: What India Can Learn From Other Countries, Vivek Kumar Srivastava Dr.

Vivek Kumar Srivastava Dr.

Present paper analyses the Indian response to disasters. It is also a policy paper as it provides the ways which can be useful in mitigating the disaster risks.

Cyber Intelligence Operations: More Than Just 1s & 0s, Randy Borum, John Felker, Sean Kern

Randy Borum

Today’s Coast Guard relies heavily on digital information and communication technologies. In fact, every aspect of Coast Guard operations and support relies upon network resources for function, sorting, analysis, storage, and communication. Cyber threats are often regarded as technical challenges. It is easy to forget that there are people behind the keyboards. Individual actors and groups have intentions, motivations, objectives, knowledge, and capabilities.

La Información A Los Consumidores Sobre La Ausencia O La Presencia Reducida De Gluten En Los Alimentos: El Reglamento De Ejecución (Ue) Nº 828/2014 De La Comisión, Luis González Vaqué

Luis González Vaqué

The Commission adopted on 30 July 2014 the Implementing Regulation (EU) No 828/2014 on the requirements for the provision of information to consumers on the absence or reduced presence of gluten in food. Information on the presence of gluten in food should help people intolerant to gluten to identify and choose a varied diet when eating inside or outside the home. Wheat, rye and barley have been identified as grains that are scientifically reported to contain gluten. The gluten present in those grains can cause adverse health effects to people with coeliac disease and therefore its consumption should be avoided …

National Infrastructure Protection Priorities For Nuclear Electromagnetic Pulse (Emp) And Solar Storm Geomagnetic Disturbance Catastrophes, George H. Baker Iii

George H Baker

The Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack has provided a compelling case for protecting civilian infrastructure against the effects of EMP and geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) caused by severe solar storms. Similar to protecting critical infrastructure against any hazard, it will be important to take a risk-based priority approach for these two electromagnetic threats, recognizing that it will be fiscally impracticable to protect everything. In this regard, EMP and GMD are particularly challenging in that they interfere with electrical and electronic data, control, transmission, and communication systems organic to nearly all critical infrastructures, simultaneously, …

Special Section Editorial: Risk, Complexity And Sustainability, Lindsay Robertson, Katina Michael

Professor Katina Michael

This special section is dedicated to risk as understood within our society, in which we depend upon increasingly complex and interconnected technologies for even our most basic needs - water, food, shelter, electricity, gas, sewage, communications, and banking.

Natural disasters and their impact on vital services has been a research area that has flourished, especially since the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives in South Asia. Out of this research has come forth a plethora of strategies for addressing short term and geographically defined disasters. While such disaster preparedness systems are vital to minimise the …

Extremes Of Nonlinear Vibration: Comparing Models Based On Moments, L-Moments, And Maximum Entropy, Steven R. Winterstein, Cameron A. Mackenzie

Cameron A. MacKenzie

Wind and wave loads on offshore structures show nonlinear effects, which require nonGaussian statistical models. Here we critically review the behavior of various nonGaussian models. We first survey moment-based models; in particular, the four-moment “Hermite” model, a cubic transformation often used in wind and wave applications. We then derive an “L-Hermite” model, an alternative cubic transformation calibrated by the response “L-moments” rather than its ordinary statistical moments. These L-moments have recently found increasing use, in part because they show less sensitivity to distribution tails than ordinary moments. We find here, however, that these L-moments may not convey sufficient information to …

Risky Removal: Developing A Holistic Understanding Of The Risks Of Redeveloping Sites Contaminated With Unexploded Ordnance, Matthew Bates, Elizabeth Jones, Jeffrey Keisler, Igor Linkov

Jeffrey Keisler

No abstract provided.