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Articles 61 - 90 of 94
Full-Text Articles in Risk Analysis
Selection And Application Of Distorted Risk Measures, Edwin J. Offutt
Selection And Application Of Distorted Risk Measures, Edwin J. Offutt
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis develops and illustrates a methodology for the selection of probability distributions and distortion functions associated with risk scenarios resulting from military capability shortfalls. Distorted (or transformed) risk measures are analyzed and applied to account for loss scenarios that may occur with low frequency but result in catastrophic outcomes. After reviewing the rudimentary concepts of distortion, four well-known continuous distributions, suitable for modeling risk scenarios, are chosen using defined criteria. Based on subject matter expert inputs, a simple method for assigning exactly one of the four distributions to any risk scenario is proposed. Four parametric distortion functions from the …
An Historical Analysis Of Factors Contributing To The Emergence Of The Intrusion Detection Discipline And Its Role In Information Assurance, James L.M. Hart
An Historical Analysis Of Factors Contributing To The Emergence Of The Intrusion Detection Discipline And Its Role In Information Assurance, James L.M. Hart
Theses and Dissertations
In 2003, Gartner, Inc., predicted the inevitable demise of the intrusion detection (ID) market, a major player in the computer security technology industry. In light of this prediction, IT executives need to know if intrusion detection technologies serve a strategic purpose within the framework of information assurance (IA). This research investigated the historical background and circumstances that led to the birth of the intrusion detection field and explored the evolution of the discipline through current research in order to identify appropriate roles for IDS technology within an information assurance framework. The research identified factors contributing to the birth of ID …
An Analysis Of Information Assurance Relating To The Department Of Defense Radio Frequency Identification (Rfid) Passive Network, Robert G. Giovannetti
An Analysis Of Information Assurance Relating To The Department Of Defense Radio Frequency Identification (Rfid) Passive Network, Robert G. Giovannetti
Theses and Dissertations
The mandates for suppliers to commence Radio Frequency Identification tagging set by Wal-Mart and the Department of Defense is changing this long-time rumored technology into reality. Despite the many conveniences to automate and improve asset tracking this technology offers, consumer groups have obstinately opposed this adoption due to the perceived weaknesses in security and privacy of the network. While the heated debate between consumers and retailers continues, little to no research has addressed the implications of security on the Department of Defense Radio Frequency Identification network. This thesis utilized a historical analysis of Radio Frequency Identification literature to determine whether …
Improving The Estimation Of Military Worth Of The Advanced Tactical Laser Through Simulation Aggregation, Michael T. Cook
Improving The Estimation Of Military Worth Of The Advanced Tactical Laser Through Simulation Aggregation, Michael T. Cook
Theses and Dissertations
Fielding High Energy Laser (HEL) weapon systems presents technological challenges as well as employment and financial challenges. The risk associated with the challenges mandates the development process include computer simulation models capable of predicting weapon system performance from the engineering level to assessing the military worth of employing HEL systems in combat scenarios. This research effort focuses on developing laser performance data at a higher fidelity engagement model and integrating the performance data into a mission level model. The propagation of the laser from the transmitting aperture to the target is modeled at the engagement level through the employment of …
Measuring The Risk Of Shortfalls In Air Force Capabilities, William E. Woodward
Measuring The Risk Of Shortfalls In Air Force Capabilities, William E. Woodward
Theses and Dissertations
The U.S. Air Force seeks to measure and prioritize risk as part of its Capabilities Review and Risk Assessment (CRRA) process. The goal of the CRRA is to identify capability shortfalls, and the risks associated with those shortfalls, to influence future systems acquisition. Many fields, including engineering, medicine and finance, seek to model and measure risks. This research utilizes various risk measurement approaches to propose appropriate risk measures for a military context. Specifically, risk is modeled as a non-negative random variable of severity. Four measures are examined: simple expectation, a risk-value measure, tail conditional expectation, and distorted expectation. Risk measures …
Estimating Engineering And Manufacturing Development Cost Risk Using Logistic And Multiple Regression, John V. Bielecki
Estimating Engineering And Manufacturing Development Cost Risk Using Logistic And Multiple Regression, John V. Bielecki
Theses and Dissertations
Cost Growth in Department of Defense (DoD) major weapon systems has been an on-going problem for more than 30 years. Previous research has demonstrated the use of a two-step logistic and multiple regression methodology to predicting cost growth produces desirable results versus traditional single-step regression. This research effort validates, and further explores the use of a two-step procedure for assessing DoD major weapon system cost growth using historical data, We compile programmatic data from the Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) between 1990 and 2001 for programs covering all defense departments. Our analysis concentrates on cost growth in the research and development …
Outsourcing Information Technology And The Insider Threat, Valerie L. Caruso
Outsourcing Information Technology And The Insider Threat, Valerie L. Caruso
Theses and Dissertations
As one of our nation's top critical infrastructures, telecommunications is an essential element of many aspects of our lives upon which we, as a society, are becoming increasingly dependent. Computers, digital telephone switches, and interconnected information technology (IT) systems impact finances, travel, infrastructure management, and missions of national defense. This research examined whether the trend in increased outsourcing of information technology systems is a significant contributing factor to a reportedly increasing amount of insider attacks. In light of changing social, global economic, and technological conditions, the paradigm in which risk analysis, management practices, and operational and personnel security practices are …
The Air Force Operational Risk Management Program And Aviation Safety, Matthew G. Cho
The Air Force Operational Risk Management Program And Aviation Safety, Matthew G. Cho
Theses and Dissertations
Aviation mishaps are extremely costly in terms of dollar value, public opinion, and human life, The Air Force drastically reduced Class A mishap rates in its formative years. The rate plummeted from 44.22 mishaps per 100,000 flight hours in 1947 to 2.33 mishaps in 1983 and has held steady around 1.5 mishaps since. The Air Force implemented the Operational Risk Management (ORM) program in 1996 in an effort to protect their most valuable resources: aircraft and aviators. An AFIT thesis conducted in 1999 by Capt Park Ashley studied the Army similar Risk Management (RM) program. Ashley concluded that since his …
Estimating Engineering Cost Risk Using Logistic And Multiple Regression, Vincent P. Sipple
Estimating Engineering Cost Risk Using Logistic And Multiple Regression, Vincent P. Sipple
Theses and Dissertations
This study explores a two-step procedure for assessing defense acquisition program cost growth using historical data. Specifically, we seek to predict whether a program will experience cost growth and, if applicable, how much costs will increase. We compile programmatic data from the Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) between 1990 and 2000 for programs from all defense departments. We focus our analysis on cost growth in research and development dollars for the Engineering Manufacturing Development phase of acquisition. We further limit our study to only one of the seven SAR categories of cost growth engineering cost growth. We explore the use of …
Multi-Discipline Network Vulnerability Assessment, Karilynne Wallace
Multi-Discipline Network Vulnerability Assessment, Karilynne Wallace
Theses and Dissertations
Air Force Space Command has a mission to provide real-time, survivable, and enduring communications, surveillance, environmental monitoring, navigation, and warning....according to Air Force Space Handbook - A War Fighters Guide to Space. In order to prevent disruption of the critical networks in Space Command, a vulnerability assessment must be performed. The set of components called a vulnerability set, which could cause network disruption, must be identified and prioritized. In order to move beyond subjective prioritization, implementation of a quantitative methodology that measures the value of each vulnerability set is needed. This thesis proposes a technique for vulnerability assessment of a …
Analysis Of Usaf Medium And Heavylift Space Launch Mission Reliability Requirements, Arthur R. Dawkins
Analysis Of Usaf Medium And Heavylift Space Launch Mission Reliability Requirements, Arthur R. Dawkins
Theses and Dissertations
The launch services that the USAF procures to carry DOD payloads into orbit are characterized by high risks and high costs. If a launch vehicle experiences a catastrophic failure, the cost of the entire launch vehicle, the launch processing, and the payload are completely lost (often in excess of 1,5 billion dollars.) Despite this enormous risk for the payload customer, and indeed the launch provider, launch success rates around the world are not much above 90 percent. The current USAF medium and heavylift launch systems are often based on technology that is 20 years old and older. Furthermore, little historical …
A Risk Analysis Of Remediation Technologies For A Doe Facility, Helene A. Wilson
A Risk Analysis Of Remediation Technologies For A Doe Facility, Helene A. Wilson
Theses and Dissertations
The Department of Energy is responsible for selecting a remediation technology to clean up the Waste Area Group (WAG) 6 site at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP) in Kentucky. WAG 6 is contaminated with an uncertain amount of trichloroethylene (TCE) and technetium-99 (Tc-99). Selecting a remediation technology involves a certain degree of risk because many of these technologies are new or proven only for a specific type of contaminant or a particular set of site conditions. Differences between contaminant type and site conditions are enough to make the performance of a remediation technology uncertain. This research identifies the technological …
How The Presence Of A Risk Ladder, Time Interval Comparison, And Smoking Comparison Affect Risk Perception, Steve A. Dinzart
How The Presence Of A Risk Ladder, Time Interval Comparison, And Smoking Comparison Affect Risk Perception, Steve A. Dinzart
Theses and Dissertations
The objective of this study is to increase the knowledge available on the relative effectiveness of risk ladders as a presentation format for explaining risk magnitudes to the public. An experiment was conducted to test the hypotheses that an individual's risk perception varies with the presence of a risk ladder, time interval comparison, and smoking comparison. Subjects were AFIT Professional Continuing Education students, asked to assume a particular level of a health hazard in their homes, to read a brochure explaining the hazard, and then to complete a questionnaire. Results demonstrated that subjects exposed to a graphical risk ladder perceived …
Predicting Mishap Rates At Closing Usaf Maintenance Depots, Douglas E. Mcclain
Predicting Mishap Rates At Closing Usaf Maintenance Depots, Douglas E. Mcclain
Theses and Dissertations
It is clear that the Department of Defense and the USAF, in an effort to cut costs, will continue to reduce infrastructure through base closures. This has particular implications to the civilian employee who will likely lose his or her job. The purpose of this study was to review the most recent literature relating to safety and industrial facility closures and develop a theoretical model for predicting accident or mishap rates. From the literature reviewed, a theoretical model is proposed containing five candidate variables intended to measure; perceived adequacy of employee safety training, perceived safety culture, perceived safety climate, self-reported …
Analyzing And Improving Stochastic Network Security: A Multicriteria Prescriptive Risk Analysis Model, David L. Lyle
Analyzing And Improving Stochastic Network Security: A Multicriteria Prescriptive Risk Analysis Model, David L. Lyle
Theses and Dissertations
This research optimized two measures of network security by hardening components and improving their reliability. A common measure of effectiveness (MOE) for networks is statistical reliability, which ignores the effects of hostile actions. A new MOE which includes hostile actions was developed. Both measures require component reliability functions, derived using fault trees. Fuzzy Logic and Monte Carlo simulation were used to quantify uncertainty. Results from the model are compared to traditional Risk Assessment results.
C-17/Paratrooper Risk Assessment Analysis, Jose C. Belano
C-17/Paratrooper Risk Assessment Analysis, Jose C. Belano
Theses and Dissertations
The C-17 test and evaluation community has been testing different aircraft formation geometries in search of a configuration which minimizes paratrooper encounter with the wake vortices of upstream aircraft. This thesis develops a simulation tool that the C-17 test and evaluation community can utilize as an advanced risk assessment model to use on proposed formation geometries prior to live testing. The model is developed under the architecture of object-oriented simulation using MODSIM III and parallels similar efforts by the Aerodynamic Decelerator Technology community in creating object-oriented counterparts to already developed trajectory models of various degrees of freedom. This thesis develops …
An Investigation Of Instantaneous Plume Rise From Rocket Exhaust, Paul F. Sand
An Investigation Of Instantaneous Plume Rise From Rocket Exhaust, Paul F. Sand
Theses and Dissertations
Rocket launches at Vandenburg Air Force Base and Cape Canaveral Air Station produce exhaust clouds containing several toxic by-products, including HC1 and A12O3. These clouds rise to atmospheric stabilization heights, and then start dispersing and diffusing through the air. Upon reaching the ground, concentration levels of the toxins may present a human health risk. To predict these risks and concentration levels, range officials use a computer program titled the Rocket Effluent Exhaust Diffusion Model (REEDM). The version currently in use has been shown to underpredict the stabilization height of the exhaust cloud. This thesis examines the theory and algorithms used …
Applying Probabilistic Risk Assessment And Decision Analysis Techniques To Avoid Excessive Remedial Investigation Costs, Alejandro Hinojos
Applying Probabilistic Risk Assessment And Decision Analysis Techniques To Avoid Excessive Remedial Investigation Costs, Alejandro Hinojos
Theses and Dissertations
The majority of remediation resources have been consumed by costly and lengthy remedial investigation studies to characterize the human health risk. Unable to deal directly with the uncertainty resulting from the convolution of the uncertainties in a multitude of variables, and heavily persuaded by the liabilities, decision makers and regulators have relied on conservative assumptions and more studies to take appropriate actions. The main objective of this research is to provide tools and techniques to aid risk analysts in determining whether it would be beneficial to gather additional information or whether the decision to take an appropriate action can be …
An Activity Driver Based Analysis Of Hazardous Materials Usage At Wright-Patterson Afb, Charles D. Perham
An Activity Driver Based Analysis Of Hazardous Materials Usage At Wright-Patterson Afb, Charles D. Perham
Theses and Dissertations
As the Air Force has progressed and succeeded in the realm of pollution prevention, the opportunities for further progress have become more challenging. With the 'low-hanging fruit' now gone from the pollution prevention tree, new methods to identify opportunities must be adopted. This research effort applied a subset of activity based costing, activity driver analysis, to reveal pollution prevention opportunities in regards to hazardous materials usage. A sample of base organizations (civil engineering and aircraft maintenance), and a sample of the hazardous chemicals (Class C or most hazardous) used by those organizations were investigated to determine the drivers behind usage.
Evaluation Of Hazardous Material Life Cycle Cost Tools For Use In Air Force Hazardous Material Pharmacies, Rowene J. Resler
Evaluation Of Hazardous Material Life Cycle Cost Tools For Use In Air Force Hazardous Material Pharmacies, Rowene J. Resler
Theses and Dissertations
This research focuses on evaluation of various tools that assist in the selection of hazardous material substitutes. Substitute material consideration is a function of the Hazardous Material Pharmacy (HMP) when a hazardous material is requested for purchase and use in a current base operation. The substitute material decision is complex, involving identification of potential substitutes and then comparison of factors, such as cost, performance, and environmental effects, between the potential substitute and the material being requested. Various tools such as life cycle cost models, databases, and other information services can provide assistance to HMPs making substitution decisions.
Personnel Airdrop Risk Assessment Using Bootstrap Sampling, Wonsik Kim
Personnel Airdrop Risk Assessment Using Bootstrap Sampling, Wonsik Kim
Theses and Dissertations
Previous work on personnel airdrop problems involving jumpers has been (1) event-oriented entanglement rates, (2) number of canopy bumps, (3) landing injuries, and (4) deaths. The thesis expands this area of research by developing cumulative distribution functions of maximum possible chute entanglement risk for the C-17 using bootstrap techniques. By comparing the effects of various C-17 aircraft configurations on the entanglement CDF, this thesis shows that under certain configurations the risk of centerline entanglement for the C-17 is less than for the C-141.
Development Of A Basis For A Hazardous Materials And Waste Management System For Air Force Contingency Deployments, Christopher J. West
Development Of A Basis For A Hazardous Materials And Waste Management System For Air Force Contingency Deployments, Christopher J. West
Theses and Dissertations
Increased awareness of the potential for adverse mission impact on deployments, recent experience on such deployments, and Air Force and Major Command interest establish the need for an integrated hazardous materials and waste management system for contingency environments. This research was focused toward establishing a basis for developing such a system. An intensive literature review was accomplished to justify the necessity of the research, characterize the contingency environment, review legal and regulatory requirements, review proper hazardous substance handling and processing procedures, and review existing and new material resources which may be employed in such a system. Further literature review led …
An Analysis Of The Relationship Between Risk Alignment And Cost Performance, Christopher M. Wegner
An Analysis Of The Relationship Between Risk Alignment And Cost Performance, Christopher M. Wegner
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis investigates the relationship between risk alignment and cost performance in DoD procurement. Both the government and the contractor conduct independent assessments of the perceived risk in a contract. The results of inaccurate risk assessments are undesirable consequences, one of which is the inability to achieve cost targets. If both the contractor's and the government's perceptions of risk are in alignment with the actual risk involved in a contract, then we would expect minimal impact. If, however, either or both parties fail to accurately assess the actual risk, then we would expect consequences, such as cost overrun/underrun. The level …
Estimating Risks In Emerging Soil Remediation Technologies, Thomas J. Timmerman
Estimating Risks In Emerging Soil Remediation Technologies, Thomas J. Timmerman
Theses and Dissertations
The Department of Energy is focusing a long-term development effort on producing cheaper, safer, and faster state-of-the-art soil remediation technologies. To assist with the management of these innovative technology development projects, ways of quantifiably measuring technical risk were investigated through a detailed literature review. 'Technical risk' was defined in this study as the combination of the consequences of undesired events and their likelihood. Careful design of the inputs into a technology selection decision support system accounted for the uncertainty in forecasting final characteristics of remediation technologies still in the early phases of R&D. Experts made subjective probability estimates of these …
How Location And An Action Standard On A Risk Ladder Affect Perceived Risk, Lonny P. Baker
How Location And An Action Standard On A Risk Ladder Affect Perceived Risk, Lonny P. Baker
Theses and Dissertations
Efforts to explain risk magnitudes often rely on a risk ladder in which exposure levels and associated risk estimates are arranged with low levels at the bottom of the ladder and high levels at the top. An experiment was conducted to test the hypotheses that perceived threat varies with the location of a subject's assigned level on the risk ladder, and that perceived threat varies with the presence of an action standard on the risk ladder. Air Force Institute of Technology Professional Continuing Education students were asked to assume a particular level of a hypothetical hazard in their residences, to …
A Comparison Of Remediation Priorities Developed By The Defense Priority Model, The Relative Risk Evaluation Method, And A Quantitative Risk Assessment Approach, David M. Hunter
Theses and Dissertations
The Superfund, established by the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) of 1980, seriously underestimated both the number of severely contaminated sites and the associated cleanup cost. The magnitude of projected cleanup costs, coupled with shrinking federal budgets, necessitated the development and use of risk-based prioritization models among some federal agencies. Among these tools, the DOD prioritization models are meant to give priority to sites posing the greatest threat to human health. Their failure to properly rank sites could incorrectly shift the focus from those that pose substantial risk to sites of lesser risk. The DOD site ranking …
A Systems Engineering Approach To Environmental Risk Management: A Case Study Of Depleted Uranium At Test Area C-64, Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, Charles M. Carter, Kristina M. Fortmann, Stephen W. Hill, Robert M. Latin, Edward J. Masterson, Joseph A. Roh, Sujay R. Setlur
A Systems Engineering Approach To Environmental Risk Management: A Case Study Of Depleted Uranium At Test Area C-64, Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, Charles M. Carter, Kristina M. Fortmann, Stephen W. Hill, Robert M. Latin, Edward J. Masterson, Joseph A. Roh, Sujay R. Setlur
Theses and Dissertations
Environmental restoration is an area of concern in an environmentally conscious world. Much effort is required to clean up the environment and promote environmentally sound methods for managing current land use. In light of the public consciousness with the latter topic, the United States Air Force must also take an active role in addressing these environmental issues with respect to current and future USAF base land use. This thesis uses the systems engineering technique to assess human health risks and to evaluate risk management options with respect to depleted uranium contamination in the sampled region of Test Area (TA) C-64 …
An Analysis Of The Performance-Risk Trade-Off In Source Selection Decision Making, Richard G. Pierce, Jeffrey E. Wainwright
An Analysis Of The Performance-Risk Trade-Off In Source Selection Decision Making, Richard G. Pierce, Jeffrey E. Wainwright
Theses and Dissertations
Each year the Air Force awards weapon system contracts worth billions of dollars using the source selection process. In the source selection, performance and risk assessments are evaluated to determine the best proposal; the proposal that gives the best overall value. The purpose of this research was to investigate the performance/risk trade-off in the source selection decision making process. The study also examined the effect individual risk propensities and the nature of item being evaluated have on the performance/risk trade-off decisions. Air Force acquisition personnel stationed at Aeronautical Systems Center, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH, who had participated in a source selection …
A Refinement Of Risk Analysis Procedures For Trichloroethylene Through The Use Of Monte Carlo Method In Conjunction With Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling, William J. Cronin Iv, Eric J. Oswald
A Refinement Of Risk Analysis Procedures For Trichloroethylene Through The Use Of Monte Carlo Method In Conjunction With Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling, William J. Cronin Iv, Eric J. Oswald
Theses and Dissertations
This study refines risk analysis procedures for trichloroethylene (TCE) using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model in conjunction with the Monte Carlo method. The Monte Carlo method is used to generate random sets of model parameters, based on the mean, variance, and distribution types. The procedure generates a range of exposure values for human excess lifetime cancer risk of lxl0 (exp-6), based on the upper and lower bounds and the mean of a 95% confidence interval. Risk ranges were produced for both ingestion and inhalation exposures. Results are presented in a graphical format to reduce reliance on qualitative discussions of …
A Risk Assessment Of The Health Liabilities From Exposure To Toxic Metals Found In The Composted Material Of Air Force Municipal Solid Waste, Timothy L. Merrymon
A Risk Assessment Of The Health Liabilities From Exposure To Toxic Metals Found In The Composted Material Of Air Force Municipal Solid Waste, Timothy L. Merrymon
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis assesses the risk of the health liabilities from exposure to toxic metals found in the composted material of Air Force municipal solid waste (MSW). The goal is to determine the probability that the composted MSW could be a health hazard if it were used as a soil amendment. The research limited the assessment of the exposure risk to heavy metals found in raw MSW and its resulting compost. The thesis uses reviews of present literature to examine the food and soil ingestion exposure pathways. These pathways are assessed using the heavy metal concentrations found in MSW compost and …