Risk Analysis Commons^™

Nuclear Weapons In A Changing Climate: Probability, Increasing Risks, And Perception, Adam Liska, Tyler R. White, Eric Holley, Robert J. Oglesby

Adam Liska Papers

Many people tend to think that the outcome of any nuclear weapons use today will result in an escalatory situation with apocalyptic outcomes for the countries involved. Yet many factors are increasing the probability of the limited use of nuclear weapons (e.g., 1 to 20 warheads) in a range of conflict scenarios. Previous atmospheric model simulations of regional nuclear conflicts employing many relatively small bombs have been estimated to cause a global “nuclear autumn,” with great reductions in agricultural productivity, stratospheric ozone loss, and spread of hazardous radioactive fallout. The totality of these effects would result in widespread damage …

Resilience In Ecotoxicology: Toward A Multiple Equilibrium Concept, Mirco Bundschuh, Ralf Schulz, Ralf B. Schäfer, Craig R. Allen, David G. Angeler

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The term resilience describes stress-response patterns across scientific disciplines. In ecology, advances have been made to clearly define resilience based on underlying mechanistic assumptions. Engineering resilience (rebound) is used to describe the ability of organisms to recover from adverse conditions (disturbances), which is termed the rate of recovery. By contrast, the ecological resilience definition considers a systemic change, that is, when ecosystems reorganize into a new regime following disturbance. Under this new regime, structural and functional aspects change considerably relative to the previous regime, without recovery. In this context, resilience is an emergent property of complex systems. In the present …

The Oil Spill Risk Assessment And Research On The Oil Pollution Emergency Plan In Cnooc(Huizhou) Logistics Base Wharf, Hui Yi

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Ship Pollution Risk Assessment Of Taicang Port, Shuai Shuai

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Financial Performance In Upstream, Downstream, And Integrated Oil Companies In Response To Oil Price Volatility, Jonathan P. Garcia

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper investigates the relation between crude oil price volatility and stock returns among oil companies using a three-part methodology, by using the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as oil price benchmark. I asses the various indicators that set signals for oil price volatility and the interpretation of each (PMI, S&P500, DJIA, and World Crude Oil Output). This research also focuses on the relation between different types of companies in the oil industry (integrated, upstream, and downstream) and how each type of company will be assessed in a particular way to predict abnormal returns, based on market data and statistical analyses …

Research On Prevention Of Ship-Induced Pollution To Drinking Water Source In The Yangtze Estuary Of Shanghai Sector, Detong Zhu

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

The Simulation & Evaluation Of Surge Hazard Using A Response Surface Method In The New York Bight, Michael H. Bredesen

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Atmospheric features, such as tropical cyclones, act as a driving mechanism for many of the major hazards affecting coastal areas around the world. Accurate and efficient quantification of tropical cyclone surge hazard is essential to the development of resilient coastal communities, particularly given continued sea level trend concerns. Recent major tropical cyclones that have impacted the northeastern portion of the United States have resulted in devastating flooding in New York City, the most densely populated city in the US. As a part of national effort to re-evaluate coastal inundation hazards, the Federal Emergency Management Agency used the Joint Probability Method …

Ship Oil Spilling Risk Analysis Of Petrochemical Terminal In Weihai Port, Hao Deng

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Study On Environmental Risk Assessment Of Oil Spill Accidents In Shanghai Port, Jingzhou Chang

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Data Preparation For Validation Study Of Hazus Canada Flood Model, Heather Mcgrath, Emmanual Stefanakis, M Mccarthy, Miroslav Nastev

International Institute for Infrastructure Resilience and Reconstruction (I3R2) Conference

As our climate changes, the occurrence of extreme weather events and heavier rainfall becomes more common. This change in weather patterns and precipitation results in a greater number of recorded flood events and a larger magnitude of flood events. Canadian municipalities are therefore facing a pressing demand to perform hazard assessments to identify communities at risk and measure potential economic and societal losses due to flood events. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a standardized tool, Hazus-MH, for loss estimation from natural disasters for use in the US. Recently, Hazus has been adapted for use in Canada. This paper introduces …

Issue Brief: Saving By Mitigating, University Of Louisville, New England Environmental Finance Center

Sustainable Communities Capacity Building

Natural disasters can cause loss of life, inflict damage to buildings and infrastructure, and have devastating consequences for a community’s economic, social, and environmental well-being. Hazard mitigation means reducing damages from disasters.

Local governments have the responsibility to protect the health, safety, and welfare of their citizens. Proactive mitigation policies and actions help reduce risk and create safer, more disaster-resilient communities. Mitigation is an investment in your community’s future safety, equity, and sustainability.

Safety Evaluation On Navigation Environment Of Xiazhimen Channel Based On Cloud Mode, Pengpeng Ye

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Safety Assessment Of Navigational Environment In Dalian Beiliang Port, Miao Wang

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

A Prototype Decision Support Tool For Ballast Water Risk Management Using A Combination Of Hydrodynamic Models And Agent-Based Modelling, Fleming T. Hansen, Jesper H. Andersen, Michael Potthof, Thomas Uhrenholdt, Hong D. Vo, Olof Lindén

NSBWO

We report the development of a prototype Decision Support Tool (DST) for modelling the risks of spreading of non-indegenous invasive species via ballast water. The DST constitutes of two types of models: A 3D hydrodynamical model calculates the currents in the North Sea and Danish Straits, and an agent-based model estimates the dispersal of selected model organisms with the prevailing currents calculated by the 3D hydrodynamical model. The analysis is concluded by a post processing activity, where scenarios of dispersal are combined into an interim estimate of connectivity within the study area. The latter can be used as a tool …

Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model And Stpa Tool, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

The goal of this article is dual: first, introducing a new model of accident named STAMP (systems-theoretic accident modeling and processes); then applying the model to an innovative process for the treatment of contaminated substances and the re-use of treated substances. This article is a demonstration for a need of a new tool to take into account hazards and safety within socio-technical systems.

Experiments To Measure The Effects Of Timber Harvesting Equipment On Surface Lithic Scatters, Douglas J. Baughman

All Master's Theses

The importance of cultural resource preservation cannot be overstated; however local economies are at least as important. Due to conservative archaeological site protection practices in Region 5 of the United States Forest Service, the economy of Northeastern California is being adversely affected. In an attempt to help the Forest Service make more informed management decisions and improve the Northeastern California economy, I undertook experiments on the effects of timber harvesting on lithic scatters on Modoc National Forest. The experiments involved placement of 225 glass tiles (proxy lithics) in each of three plots subject to vehicle traffic and log dragging by …

Using A Systemic Model Of Accident For Improving Innovative Technologies: Application And Limitations Of The Stamp Model To A Process For Treatment Of Contaminated Substances, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

This paper presents the STAMP accident model, based on systems theory, and describes its application in the context of risk prevention related to the remediation of contaminated materials. The implementation of the model is described, and results are presented both in methodological and technical terms.

Slides: Risk Management Strategies Of The Upper Basin: Addressing Potential Shortages, Eric Kuhn

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Eric Kuhn, Colorado River Water Conservation District

15 slides

Slides: Thinking The Unthinkable, Lawrence J. Macdonnell

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Lawrence J. MacDonnell, University of Wyoming College of Law

7 slides

Filling The Gap: Commonsense Solutions For Meeting Front Range Water Needs: Executive Summary, Western Resource Advocates, Trout Unlimited, Colorado Environmental Coalition (U.S.)

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

8 pages.

"February 2011"

Presented by Drew Beckwith, Water Policy Manager, Western Resource Advocates, on June 10th at Clyde O. Martz Summer Conference 2011, Navigating the Future of the Colorado River Basin

Full report available at: http://www.westernresourceadvocates.org/gap

Materials For Presentation: The Disappearing Colorado River, Lawrence J. Macdonnell

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

7 pages.

"Western Economics Forum, Fall 2010"

Slides: Who Should Be At The Table, And What Should They Be Talking About?, Robert W. Adler

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Robert W. Adler, James I. Farr Chair in Law, University of Utah, S.J. Quinney College of Law

9 slides

Slides: Smart Fallowing: New Strategies In Ag Forbearance, Bonnie Colby

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Dr. Bonnie Colby, Department of Agriculture & Resource Economics, University of Arizona

34 slides

Slides: Long-Term Augmentation Of The Water Supply Of The Colorado River System, Les Lampe

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Les Lampe, Colorado River Water Consultants, Las Vegas, Nevada

29 slides

Fact Sheet: Study Of Long-Term Augmentation Options For The Water Supply Of The Colorado System, Black & Veatch, Ch2m Hill

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

1 page.

"March 2008"

Material submitted by Les Lampe, Colorado River Water Consultants, for "Augmentation Options" program, Session 3: Mapping a New Course, Panel F: Some Policy Options and Solutions.

Colorado River Water Consultants is a project-specific partnership of engineering firms Black & Veatch and CH2MHill.

Materials For Presentation: Water Banks: Voluntary And Flexible Water Supplies For The Colorado River's Uncertain Future [Outline], Robert Wigington

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

4 pages.

"Robert Wigington, The Nature Conservancy"

Slides: Water Banks: Voluntary And Flexible Water Supplies For The Colorado River's Uncertain Future, Robert Wigington

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Robert Wigington, The Nature Conservancy

7 slides

Slides: Law Of Colorado River: Where We Are, Where We Are Going, Steven M. Fitten

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Steven M. Fitten, Chief Counsel, International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC)

14 slides

Agenda: Navigating The Future Of The Colorado River, University Of Colorado Boulder. Natural Resources Law Center, Western Water Policy Program

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Competition for scarce Colorado River water resources is nothing new, but the conflicts that prompted the seven basin states to negotiate the 1922 Colorado River Compact have grown considerably fiercer and more complex in recent decades. In 2007, responding to the challenges of increasing demand and sustained drought, the seven basin states and a number of other affected interests agreed to a set of interim guidelines for allocating Colorado River water in the event of shortages. This agreement represents an important evolution in the governance of the Colorado River, suggesting that the many interests in the basin can work together …

Report Surveys Colorado River Basin Leaders: Collaborative Approaches To Dwindling Supplies Are Highlighted, Sarah Bates, University Of Montana Missoula. Center For Natural Resources And Environmental Policy

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

4 pages.

Press release "April 14, 2011"

"Executive Summary April 2011" of report, Thinking Like a River Basin: Leaders' Perspectives on Options and Opportunities in Colorado River Management

Full report available at:

http://www.carpediemwest.org/wp-content/uploads/Thinking_Like_A_River_Basin_8-20-13.pdf