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Full-Text Articles in Risk Analysis

Risk Assessment Of Dropped Cylindrical Objects In Offshore Operations, Adelina Steven May 2018

Risk Assessment Of Dropped Cylindrical Objects In Offshore Operations, Adelina Steven

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

Dropped object are defined as any object that fall under its own weight from a previously static position or fell due to an applied force from equipment or a moving object. It is among the top ten causes of injuries and fatality in oil and gas industry. To solve this problem, several in-house tools and guidelines is developed over time to assess the risk of dropped objects on the sub-sea structures. This thesis focuses on compiling and comparing those methods in hope to improve the recommended practices available in the market. A simple modification is done on the in-house tools …


Developing A Cyberterrorism Policy: Incorporating Individual Values, Osama Bassam J. Rabie Jan 2018

Developing A Cyberterrorism Policy: Incorporating Individual Values, Osama Bassam J. Rabie

Theses and Dissertations

Preventing cyberterrorism is becoming a necessity for individuals, organizations, and governments. However, current policies focus on technical and managerial aspects without asking for experts and non-experts values and preferences for preventing cyberterrorism. This study employs value focused thinking and public value forum to bare strategic measures and alternatives for complex policy decisions for preventing cyberterrorism. The strategic measures and alternatives are per socio-technical process.


A Traders Guide To The Predictive Universe- A Model For Predicting Oil Price Targets And Trading On Them, Jimmie Harold Lenz Dec 2016

A Traders Guide To The Predictive Universe- A Model For Predicting Oil Price Targets And Trading On Them, Jimmie Harold Lenz

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

At heart every trader loves volatility; this is where return on investment comes from, this is what drives the proverbial “positive alpha.” As a trader, understanding the probabilities related to the volatility of prices is key, however if you could also predict future prices with reliability the world would be your oyster. To this end, I have achieved three goals with this dissertation, to develop a model to predict future short term prices (direction and magnitude), to effectively test this by generating consistent profits utilizing a trading model developed for this purpose, and to write a paper that anyone with …


Developing A Risk Analysis Model To Improve Study Abroad Awareness, Tyler Spain May 2016

Developing A Risk Analysis Model To Improve Study Abroad Awareness, Tyler Spain

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

As international education opportunities increase in popularity among U.S. college students (McMurtrie, 2007), it is becoming more and more necessary for study abroad organizations to be aware of the risks students face as they travel abroad. While some international cities are riskier than others, it can be difficult to distinguish between cities which truly carry a high degree of risk for visiting students, and which cities are only perceived to be risky based on various personal misconceptions. The University of Arkansas Office of Study Abroad & International Exchange currently lacks a way to quantifiably analyze the risk of study abroad …


A Machine Learning Approach To Post-Market Surveillance Of Medical Devices, Jonathan Bates, Shu-Xia Li, Craig Parzynski, Ronald Coifman, Harlan Krumholz, Joseph Ross Sep 2015

A Machine Learning Approach To Post-Market Surveillance Of Medical Devices, Jonathan Bates, Shu-Xia Li, Craig Parzynski, Ronald Coifman, Harlan Krumholz, Joseph Ross

Yale Day of Data

Post-market surveillance is a collection of processes and activities used by product manufacturers and regulators, such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to monitor the safety and effectiveness of medical devices once they are available for use “on the market”. These activities are designed to generate information to identify poorly performing devices and other safety problems, accurately characterize real-world device performance and clinical outcomes, and facilitate the development of new devices, or new uses for existing devices. Typically, a device is monitored by comparing adverse events in the exposed population to a matched unexposed population. This research considers …


The Simulation & Evaluation Of Surge Hazard Using A Response Surface Method In The New York Bight, Michael H. Bredesen Jan 2015

The Simulation & Evaluation Of Surge Hazard Using A Response Surface Method In The New York Bight, Michael H. Bredesen

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Atmospheric features, such as tropical cyclones, act as a driving mechanism for many of the major hazards affecting coastal areas around the world. Accurate and efficient quantification of tropical cyclone surge hazard is essential to the development of resilient coastal communities, particularly given continued sea level trend concerns. Recent major tropical cyclones that have impacted the northeastern portion of the United States have resulted in devastating flooding in New York City, the most densely populated city in the US. As a part of national effort to re-evaluate coastal inundation hazards, the Federal Emergency Management Agency used the Joint Probability Method …


Application Of Trip Generation Models For Urban Transport Planning In A Data Scarce Developing Country City: The Case Of Dar Es Salaam, Hannibal Bwire Dec 2014

Application Of Trip Generation Models For Urban Transport Planning In A Data Scarce Developing Country City: The Case Of Dar Es Salaam, Hannibal Bwire

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

With the increase in travel demand and traffic management problems in many developing countries cities, travel demand forecasting models are being employed increasingly to make informed decisions about the operational improvements to the existing transportation system and the design and performance of future transportation systems. The main advantage of using travel demand forecasting models for such purposes is that they are capable of capturing the interactive effects of different components of the system under study. However, for some time now there have been concerns about the application of transport planning models in developing countries. The concerns have been mainly in …


Application Of Remotely Sensed Rainfall Data In Rainfall-Runoff Modelling. A Case Of Pangani River Basin, Tanzania, Joel Nobert Jun 2014

Application Of Remotely Sensed Rainfall Data In Rainfall-Runoff Modelling. A Case Of Pangani River Basin, Tanzania, Joel Nobert

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Rainfall runoff modelling in a river basin is vital for number of hydrologic application including water resources assessment. However, rainfall data from sparse gauging stations are usually inadequate for modelling which is a major concern in Tanzania. This study presents the results of comparison of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite rainfall products at daily and monthly time-steps with ground stations rainfall data; and explores the possibility of using satellite rainfall data for rainfall runoff modelling in Pangani River Basin, Tanzania. Statistical analysis was carried out to find the correlation between the ground stations data and TRMM estimates. It was …


Accuracy Of Dem-Based Topographic Data In Flood Inundation Modelling: A Case Of Wami River, Tanzania, Preksedis Ndomba Jun 2014

Accuracy Of Dem-Based Topographic Data In Flood Inundation Modelling: A Case Of Wami River, Tanzania, Preksedis Ndomba

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Ihe objective of this Biper is to evaluate and further convnent on the accuracy of the DEW- based topographic data us input in flood mchdelling. Recent studies have indicated that hydraulic of the modified sections based on high resolution are geometrically and hydraulically similar to the measured ones, In the study hydraulic modelling intended to guide a developnent project whereby a protection embankment is contemplated. Therefore, accuracy in terns of positioning/alignment of natural features such as river banks and heights/elevarions was imperative m arrain. In order m achieve these, accuracy of various topographic data sources were qualitatively and/or quantitatively before …


Optimising The Performance Of Roundabouts In Dar Es Salaam City, David Mfinanga Dec 2013

Optimising The Performance Of Roundabouts In Dar Es Salaam City, David Mfinanga

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Intersections are one of the major bottlenecks that aggravate congestion in road networks; effective control of which is an important strategy in improving traffic flow. While developing countries have found it hard to adopt sophisticated means of intersection control, they have also not optimised the performance of roundabouts. This paper reviews the performance of roundabouts, which have become increasingly popular in recent years, as simple and low cost forms of intersection control. The performance of three major roundabouts in Dar es Salaam has been analysed and results show that roundabouts can accommodate high traffic volumes without causing excessive delays. The …


Problems And Prospects Of Hydraulic Modelling For Environmental Flows Assessment Studies In East Africa, Preksedis Ndomba Jun 2013

Problems And Prospects Of Hydraulic Modelling For Environmental Flows Assessment Studies In East Africa, Preksedis Ndomba

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

The objective of this paper is to document the problems and prospects of hydraulic modelling for Environmental Flows Assessment (EFA) studies based on selected case studies. Most of studies in East Africa use Holistic methodologies. An ideal data set for defining river hydraulics for most of these methods would be six data points of stage measurements over a good distribution of discharges, the stage of zero discharge and some flood-related data. Besides, in East African region EFA studies suffer from data scarcity (i.e., poorly gauged sites) and limited expertise and funding. The hydraulics studies conducted by the authors entailed desktop …


Integrated Remote Sensing And Gis Techniques For Groundwater Exploration In Semi-Arid Region: A Case Of Karamoja Region – Uganda, Lubang Nobert Dec 2008

Integrated Remote Sensing And Gis Techniques For Groundwater Exploration In Semi-Arid Region: A Case Of Karamoja Region – Uganda, Lubang Nobert

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Groundwater is a precious resource that covers wide geographical extent. Proper evaluation is required in order to ensure prudent use of groundwater resources. The current groundwater assessment in Karamoja region, as in many parts of the world, uses Apparent Resistivity and Vertical Electrical Sounding, which has limited coverage to some localized usually predetermined areas. Comprehensive groundwater development program needs a wide area coverage and large volume of multidisciplinary data. In the present study, an integrated remote sensing and GIS based methodology is developed and tested for the evaluation of groundwater resources of Karamoja Sub Region, Northeastern Uganda. The components of …


Identification Of Unbalanced Forces And Foundation Parameters Of Rotating Machines From Vibration Measurements, Nalitolela G Dec 2008

Identification Of Unbalanced Forces And Foundation Parameters Of Rotating Machines From Vibration Measurements, Nalitolela G

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

A technique is described to use measured vibration data of a rotating machine and its foundation to identify unbalanced forces, stiffness and damping parameters of the mountings, and the parameters of the foundation. It is based on an idealisation treating the rotor, the machine structure and the foundation as rigid masses supported by springs and dampers. Operational vibration data of the machine and its foundation before and after the rotating unbalanced forces are perturbed by adding unbalanced mass to the rotor are used in the identification procedure. Once the parameters are identified, dynamic forces transmitted to the foundation can be …


An Equation For Estimating The (R) Usle Slope Steepness Factors, Mathew Mulemgera Dec 2008

An Equation For Estimating The (R) Usle Slope Steepness Factors, Mathew Mulemgera

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Abstract Currently three equations are used for calculating slope steepness factor for the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE); one for slopes less than nine percent, the second for slopes equal or greater than nine percent, and the third equation that has been proposed for use in China for slopes equal or greater than 17 %. The three equations have linear relationships between slope steepness factor, S and the sine of the slope angle, θ. The three equations under predict the factor, S when used on slope steepness beyond the data sets used to develop them. In addressing this problem …


The Limnogeology Of The Lakes Sagara And Nyamagoma, Hudson Nkotagu Jun 2008

The Limnogeology Of The Lakes Sagara And Nyamagoma, Hudson Nkotagu

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

The present study focuses on the limnogeological aspects of the lakes Sagara and Nyamagoma within the Malagarasi Wetland Ecosystem. Abiotic parameters from water and sediment samples were determined during the dry and wet seasons using appropriate gears and methods. The data show variation of the abiotic parameters in both lakes from the water surface to the bottom. Lake Nyamagoma is less turbid (0.7-24 NTU) than Lake Sagara (25 to 65 NTU). The water transparency was also high at Lake Nyamagoma (0.75-1.5 m) thus supporting the observed turbidity trend. The physical chemical changes may be attributed to processes such as cooling, …


Assessment Of Integrated Water Resources Management Practice In Yatta Canal, Machakos District, Kenya, Lawrence Simitu Jun 2008

Assessment Of Integrated Water Resources Management Practice In Yatta Canal, Machakos District, Kenya, Lawrence Simitu

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Yatta Canal is situated in Yatta division, Machakos district about 100 km from Nairobi along Thika- Garissa road. It is about 60 Km long and supplies water for domestic, livestock and irrigation use. Over the years, the water supply has been unreliable especially during dry season leading to conflicts between upstream and downstream consumers. Sometimes the Government has been forced to intervene to restore order. The study aimed at assessing the use of Yatta canal, based on the principles of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) which stipulates efficient use of water and involvement of all stakeholders in decision making for …


Sediment Yield Prediction In Tanzania: Case Study Of Dodoma District Catchments, Mathew Mulemgera Jun 2008

Sediment Yield Prediction In Tanzania: Case Study Of Dodoma District Catchments, Mathew Mulemgera

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Soil erosion and sedimentation is serious and is resulting in rapid sedimentation of streams and reservoirs in Tanzania. This makes sediment yield modeling important before undertaking water resources development projects, although it has so far not been done in the country. At present sediment yield prediction can be done using physically based models, empirical soil erosion and sediment yield models, and sediment rating curves. The physically based models contain numerous parameters that are difficult to measure or estimate, making them inappropriate in developing countries like Tanzania. The rating curves give rough estimates while the empirical sediment yield models need runoff …


Sedimentation Status Of Lake Victoria: Loading From River Mouth And In-Lake Sedimentation, F Mwanuzi1 Jun 2008

Sedimentation Status Of Lake Victoria: Loading From River Mouth And In-Lake Sedimentation, F Mwanuzi1

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Lake sediments consist of the input of suspended solids by river discharges, the autochthonous produced particulate matter in the water column and the settled material on the lake bottom. The loading, transport, formation and decay of the sediments entering the Lake Victoria from Tanzanian side was monitored for the period 2000 to 2005. The sedimentation study focused on; quantification of settling fluxes of particulate nutrients and organic carbon at the off shore(Pelagic) and near-shore(Littoral) monitoring stations. Monitored data on sedimentation rate and settling velocities has been sampled and analysed in the period November 2000 to March 2005. The mean sedimentation …


Trends Of Rainfall And Maize Productivity In Malawi, T Kimaro Jun 2008

Trends Of Rainfall And Maize Productivity In Malawi, T Kimaro

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Daily rainfall data between 1966 and 2005 across all Agricultural Development Areas (ADDs) in Malawi was investigated to determine changes in selected rainfall characteristics and their impact on Maize productivity. Rainfall indices analyzed included rainfall amounts (annual and seasonal), onset, cessation, dry spells and length of rainy season. Man Kendal’s trend test was applied to the time series of these indices to detect any trends in the time series. Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) for maize crop was used to study the spatial-temporal variation of maize productivity and thus its linkage to rainfall. Definition of onset and cessation adopted from …


Risk-Based Comparison Of Classification Systems, Seth B. Wagenman Mar 2008

Risk-Based Comparison Of Classification Systems, Seth B. Wagenman

Theses and Dissertations

Performance measures for families of classification system families that rely upon the analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROCs), such as area under the ROC curve (AUC), often fail to fully address the issue of risk, especially for classification systems involving more than two classes. For the general case, we denote matrices of class prevalences, costs, and class-conditional probabilities, and assume costs are subjectively fixed, acceptable estimates for expected values of class-conditional probabilities exist, and mutual independence between a variable in one such matrix and those of any other matrix. The ROC Risk Functional (RRF), valid for any finite number of …


Determination Of Wind Loads Causing Flutter Effects, Ladislaus Lwambuka Dec 2006

Determination Of Wind Loads Causing Flutter Effects, Ladislaus Lwambuka

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

A new method on the determination Of wind forces by experimental means in a wind tunnel is discussed. The method reported herein is based on the identification methodology Of model parameters under time response (i.e. time domain identification). As a test model, a thin plate Of Cypress wood, elasticully suspended in three degrees Of freedom to represent the idealized form of a classical airfoil, for Which theoretical wind load parameters exist, has been employed. Wind load parameters, experimentally obtained on the test model under the new method, are compared With the theoretical values of classical airfoils. Advantages of the new …


Geophysical Exploration For Groundwater Resources Potential Over Basement Formations At Kwandolwa And Mwisho Wa Shamba Villages, Korogwe District, Tanzania, Cuthbert Mhilu Dec 2006

Geophysical Exploration For Groundwater Resources Potential Over Basement Formations At Kwandolwa And Mwisho Wa Shamba Villages, Korogwe District, Tanzania, Cuthbert Mhilu

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

In this paper results of geophysical exploration studies to identify potential areas with groundwater resources at Kwamndolwa and Mwisho wa Shamba Villages in Korogwe District have been presented. The resistivity curves of eight sites at the two study areas were obtained using field data measurements made based on the application of a vertical electrical sounding (VES) method. The resisivity values obtained for sites VES-K3 and VES-M2 were found to be 10.9 and 24.0 ohm-m respectively. The interpretation of the resisivity values made for the two sites gave also an indication of the presence of sedimentary rocks composed of sandstone materials …


Study On Vortex Formation In The Pouring Basin By Direct Observation, J Runyoro Jun 2006

Study On Vortex Formation In The Pouring Basin By Direct Observation, J Runyoro

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Although the formation of vortex on the free surface of liquid draining from a container is often observed, relatively little is known about the phenomenon. When a liquid is drained from a container such as a bathtub through a bottom orifice, a dip on the surface known as vortex is formed. The vortex first appears as a small dimple in the free surface, which suddenly forms a cone-shaped hole. The vortex causes turbulences, which draws in air down into the orifice (drain). Generally, the issue of vortex formation is so common in our lives that possibly its occurrence seems to …


Comparison Of Two Different Transport Models To Predict Sediment Transport: Simiyu River, Tanzania, Case Study, F Mwanuzi1 Jun 2006

Comparison Of Two Different Transport Models To Predict Sediment Transport: Simiyu River, Tanzania, Case Study, F Mwanuzi1

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

This paper presents the results of a study which focused at the spatial and temporal characteristics of sediment transport and deposition in the main river channels and floodplains. Two different numerical models were used to simulate stream flow and to analyze sediment transport and deposition in the river channels: (1) the SMS modules RMA2 and SED2D and (2) the SCALDIS model developed at the Free University of Brussels. Both numerical models contain a two-dimensional hydrodynamic module and a sediment transport module, allowing simulation of stream flow and sediment transport processes in river channels. However, they differ in the following aspects: …


Overview Of Hydraulics And Simiyu River Sediment Input Into Magu Bay, Lake Victoria, Tanzania, Alfonse Dubi Jun 2006

Overview Of Hydraulics And Simiyu River Sediment Input Into Magu Bay, Lake Victoria, Tanzania, Alfonse Dubi

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Lake Victoria is experiencing multifaceted environmental and ecological problems. A  study of the problems needs a multidisciplinary approach. to establish the cause-effect relationships. The study focuses on the hydraulics of Lake Victoria's Magu Bay and Simiyu riverine input of suspended sediments and their distribution in the Bay. Sampling in the river mouth and the Bay was conducted aboard an 8m outboard engine wooden boat. Turbidity, currents speed and direction were measured using an "AANDERAA" multi-sensor self-recording current meter model 9 (RCM9). Water depth was measured using an echo-sounder type FISHIN' BUDDY II. Geographical positions of the sampling locations were obtained …


Socio-Economic Impacts Of Computer Viruses In Tanzania, M Victor Jun 2006

Socio-Economic Impacts Of Computer Viruses In Tanzania, M Victor

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

This paper reports on a research project conducted with an objective of identifying and assessing various approaches used by different computer users (Management, System Administrators and end users) in Tanzania to combat computer viruses (CVs), and to assess users' awareness level on CVs. Specifically, the study aimed at assessing the awareness level on CVs to the Tanzanian business community; analyze the socio -economic impact caused by CVs in Tanzania and; assess existing methods, capacity and limitations on controlling CVs in Tanzania. Data was collected using both questionnaires and interview from financial institutions such as NBC and BOT, and telecommunications sector …


Investigation Of The Stability Of Engine – Governor System Operated At Low Speeds, Cuthbert Mhilu Jun 2006

Investigation Of The Stability Of Engine – Governor System Operated At Low Speeds, Cuthbert Mhilu

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

During diesel engine operation, a tendency for the engine not to achieve a  steady idling speed has often been observed. During idling speed the engine tends to either race or stall as a result of poor and incorrect metering of the fuel, which is required for the combustion process and if severe, the engine will stop firing completely. 111 this research an investigation was made to establish knowledge on diesel engine stability operated at low speeds. The influence of a governor of an engine in the control of the engine speeds has also been investigated. In order to obtain information …


Short-Term Scheduling Of A Hydro-Thermal System Using Linear Programming Technique, A Kyaruzi Dec 2004

Short-Term Scheduling Of A Hydro-Thermal System Using Linear Programming Technique, A Kyaruzi

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

The paper discusses the short term scheduling of Hydrothermal for Tanzania Electricity Supply Company (TANESCO) Power System. The problem is to determine on hourly interval the Hydro and Thermal generation. The scheduling keeps balance between production and consumption in a reliable and economical way during the study period. Linear programming (LP) mathematical model using MATL4B has been developed. The constraints are hydrological balance, thermal power plants limitations and load requirements. The result from LP solution gave low operation cost. Generation was mainly from hydro and all reservoirs elevation was high at the end ofplanning period.


Assessment Of The Accuracy Of Approximate Methods In The Analysis Of Plane Frame Structures, I Rubaratuka Dec 2004

Assessment Of The Accuracy Of Approximate Methods In The Analysis Of Plane Frame Structures, I Rubaratuka

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

pproximaic methods of analysis are widely used in the analysis OJ' frames for preliminary design due to their simplicily as compared to exact analysis meth o ds Ough they a re nol as accurate. In this paper. the methods Of hinges and portal frame are described and have been used to analyze a statically indeterminate frame by taking inro account the bending stiffness of the frame members. The obtained results are comparable Io the magnitudes of forces determined by exact methods Of analysis.


Mathematical Simulation Of The Influence Of Volatile Ma•Rrer Cloud On Heterogeneous Ignition Of Single Coal Particles, Hassan Ratal Ambula Jun 2004

Mathematical Simulation Of The Influence Of Volatile Ma•Rrer Cloud On Heterogeneous Ignition Of Single Coal Particles, Hassan Ratal Ambula

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Asimple model has been developed to predict the heterogeneous ignition temperature for single coal particles under conditions of negligible, natural and forced convections. These conditions cause different sizes Of volatile matter cloud that surround the coal particle. The model is based on the ignition Of a single coal particle heated by irradiation from spot heaters in a cold (ambient) surrounding. Energy from the particle surface oxidation, volatile matter combustion and physical heating from the spot heaters are all included in rhe particle energv balance. General ignüion criterion is used to determine the ignition point. The agreement between the experimental and …