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Full-Text Articles in Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering

Forecasting Instability Indicators In The Horn Of Africa Region, Bryan R. Tannehill Mar 2008

Forecasting Instability Indicators In The Horn Of Africa Region, Bryan R. Tannehill

Theses and Dissertations

The forecasting of state failure and the associated indicators has been a topic of great interest to a number of different agencies. USAID, CENTCOM, the World Bank, the Center for Army Analyses, and others have all examined the subject based on their own specific objectives. Whether the goal is denying terrorists space in which to operate, deciding how to pre-position materials in anticipation of unrest, stabilizing foreign markets and trade, or preventing or mitigating humanitarian disasters, man made or otherwise, this topic has been of interest for over a decade. The Horn of Africa has been one of the least …


A Decision Tool To Evaluate Budgeting Methodologies For Estimating Facility Recapitalization Requirements, Krista M. Hickman Mar 2008

A Decision Tool To Evaluate Budgeting Methodologies For Estimating Facility Recapitalization Requirements, Krista M. Hickman

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to develop a decision tool to assist in the evaluation of facility recapitalization budget estimation models to determine which model was best suited for a particular organization. Specifically, this thesis sought to answer an overarching research question addressing the importance of recapitalization and the best method to estimate the facility recapitalization budget using the Department of Defense (DoD) as the subject of the research. A comprehensive literature review revealed ten existing recapitalization model alternatives to consider for implementation. The methodology used to develop a decision tool was based on the Value Focused Thinking (VFT) …


Developing An Excel Decision Support System Using In-Transit Visibility To Decrease Dod Transportation Delays, Brian B. Stone Mar 2008

Developing An Excel Decision Support System Using In-Transit Visibility To Decrease Dod Transportation Delays, Brian B. Stone

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Air Force's Air Mobility Command (AMC) is responsible for efficiently transporting military personnel and cargo throughout the world. Organizations throughout the transportation system search for ways to decrease cargo transportation time as part of their ongoing mission to provide timely airlift services to the DoD. As cargo is transported through the transportation system it is in one of two states; waiting at an air base for transportation or in some phase of the loading, transportation, or unloading process. The loading and unloading process has been streamlined throughout the transportation system to a point which leaves little room …


Assessing Capabilities Of The High Energy Liquid Laser Area Defense System Through Combat Simulations, Ryan S. Ponack Mar 2008

Assessing Capabilities Of The High Energy Liquid Laser Area Defense System Through Combat Simulations, Ryan S. Ponack

Theses and Dissertations

High Energy Laser (HEL) technology continues to improve and its place in the battlefield is ever evolving. By combining the high energy delivery of solid state laser technology with the efficient thermal management of liquid laser technology, HELLADS has two main advantages over any HEL predecessors. One, the configuration is small and light enough to be carried on more tactical aircraft such as fighters. Two, the thermal management greatly increases HEL fire power by increasing dwell time on target. To assess HELLADS operational capabilities the test community has been challenged with how to effectively examine the advantages and limitations through …


A Simulation Optimization Approach To The Design Of Unmanned Aircraft Systems, Emily C. Evans Mar 2008

A Simulation Optimization Approach To The Design Of Unmanned Aircraft Systems, Emily C. Evans

Theses and Dissertations

Military strategy and operations have evolved significantly over the past decade. This evolution has led to a change in the military resources required to carry out missions successfully. In line with these requirements, demand has increased for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) with enhanced capability to perform surveillance and to strike targets of interest. This research effort aids in the design of a next generation UAV by employing a simulation optimization approach. The goal of this research is to maximize the number of targets destroyed in a conflict scenario by a newly designed UAV that is subject to size, weight, and …


Intelligence Surveillance And Reconnaissance Asset Assignment For Optimal Mission Effectiveness, Ryan D. Kappedal Mar 2008

Intelligence Surveillance And Reconnaissance Asset Assignment For Optimal Mission Effectiveness, Ryan D. Kappedal

Theses and Dissertations

This research develops mathematical programming techniques to solve an intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance sensor assignment problem for USSTRATCOM. The problem as specified is hypothesized to be difficult (i.e. np-hard). With the smallest test cases, the true optimal solution is found using simple optimization techniques, but, due to intractability, the optimal solutions for larger test cases are not found using these same techniques. Instead, heuristic techniques are applied to several test cases in order to determine the best, robust methodologies to find true or near optimal solutions. Specifically, simulated annealing (SA) is tested for convergence properties across several different parameter settings. …


Discrete Event Simulation Of A Suppression Of Enemy Air Defenses (Sead) Mission, Ahmet Aydin Candir Mar 2008

Discrete Event Simulation Of A Suppression Of Enemy Air Defenses (Sead) Mission, Ahmet Aydin Candir

Theses and Dissertations

Contemporary military campaigns increasingly count on the use of air power. Suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) operations have been a crucial element of military air power for 50 years. Several developments and evolution in both air defense and attack systems suggest that SEAD missions will continue to have growing importance to air forces. Since SEAD operations have a significant impact on air campaigns, it is important to examine their efficiency and identify improvement opportunities. This study explores factors that influence SEAD operations through use of a discrete event simulation built in Arena and subsequent statistical analysis of the results.


Simulation Modeling And Analysis Of F-16 Pilot Training Squadron, Adem Okal Mar 2008

Simulation Modeling And Analysis Of F-16 Pilot Training Squadron, Adem Okal

Theses and Dissertations

The need for fighter pilots in the Turkish Air Force is expected to increase with the planned acquisition of Joint Strike Fighters, ongoing new F-16 purchases, and other upgrades to the Turkish Air Force fighter inventory. This increased demand will affect the current fighter training squadron curriculum and scheduling. This study focuses on issues related to 143rd Oncel squadron F-16 Pilot Training with this projected increase in number of student pilots (SP). Completing the training periods on time is an important issue along with maintaining effective training performance. In our study the Total Time of the training period serves …


The Impact Of Operations Tempo (Optempo) On Intentions To Depart The Military. Does The Increase Of Optempo Cause Action, Nathan P. Olsen Mar 2008

The Impact Of Operations Tempo (Optempo) On Intentions To Depart The Military. Does The Increase Of Optempo Cause Action, Nathan P. Olsen

Theses and Dissertations

Recent information in the field of Operations Tempo (OPTEMPO) has resulted in conflicting information on its effect on turnover intentions. This study evaluated the August 2004 Status of Forces Survey to determine if the sample demonstrated OPTEMPO had a curvilinear effect on turnover intentions when accounting for the moderators job satisfaction and organizational commitment while controlling for rank and gender. Linear regressions were used to determine if the relationship between OPTEMPO and turnover intentions were significant. When accounting for job satisfaction and organizational commitment the relationship between OPTEMPO and turnover intentions is not significant, this indicated that OPTEMPO and turnover …


An Analysis Of Methodologies & Best Practices For Rapidly Acquiring Technologies To Meet Urgent Warfighter Needs, Charles D. Solomon Mar 2008

An Analysis Of Methodologies & Best Practices For Rapidly Acquiring Technologies To Meet Urgent Warfighter Needs, Charles D. Solomon

Theses and Dissertations

The rapidly changing global security environment that today's military operates within requires an ever-increasing ability to quickly adapt to non-traditional threats. This has forced the United States to re-examine the traditional means of equipping its forces to ensure more agile acquisition practices are available to the Science and Technology (S&T) and acquisition communities. While there have been significant efforts to look towards industry for potential solutions to this problem, the heavily bureaucratic and restrictive government environment has made applying commercial lessons learned difficult. To effectively implement rapid fielding approaches within the government context, research into organizations facing the same or …


Determining The Surface-To-Air Missile Requirement For Western And Southern Part Of The Turkish Air Defense System, Omer Alkanat Mar 2008

Determining The Surface-To-Air Missile Requirement For Western And Southern Part Of The Turkish Air Defense System, Omer Alkanat

Theses and Dissertations

An air defense system is vital for countries to protect their homelands. Today, air defense systems consist of integrated systems such as early warning radars, fighter aircraft, airborne early warning aircraft and surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems. The Turkish air defense system does not have long range SAM systems. Turkey plans to procure SAM systems to protect her borders. This research develops two location optimization models to optimally locate SAM sites to defend specified areas of the nation. One of the models finds the minimum number of SAM sites to cover the specified area; the other finds the maximum coverage for …


Combat Identification Modeling Using Robust Optimization Techniques, Taeho Kim Mar 2008

Combat Identification Modeling Using Robust Optimization Techniques, Taeho Kim

Theses and Dissertations

The purposes of this research were: (1) the modeling of a CID situation and (2) the search for robust and controllable input variable settings. The inputs were defined as controllable and noise variables and the confusion matrices in ROC theory were adapted to act as controllable factors. In this research a simple virtual battlespace representation is employed. The experimental results of the CID system are summarized by a posterior confusion matrix and throughout the confusion matrix analysis we can obtain all various types of data such as accuracy, error cost, error rates, and so forth. To find the optimal parameters …


Robust Sensitivity Analysis Of Courses Of Action Using An Additive Value Model, Hunter A. Marks Mar 2008

Robust Sensitivity Analysis Of Courses Of Action Using An Additive Value Model, Hunter A. Marks

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Defense (DoD) requires the ability to quantifiably measure progress in arenas that are complex and difficult to measure, such as the stability of a region. Therefore, the DoD works diligently to predict the effect of operations and sponsors research to improve prediction and analysis. They desire a repeatable, systematic methodology to aid in the selection of courses of action (COA) that efficiently meet stated objectives and quantitatively measure the degree of accomplishment of these objectives. The author proposes a value-focused thinking (VFT) decision analysis (DA) approach to this problem. This methodology not only aids in selection of …


Search Techniques For Multi-Objective Optimization Of Mixed Variable Systems Having Stochastic Responses, Jennifer G. Walston Sep 2007

Search Techniques For Multi-Objective Optimization Of Mixed Variable Systems Having Stochastic Responses, Jennifer G. Walston

Theses and Dissertations

A research approach is presented for solving stochastic, multi-objective optimization problems. First, the class of mesh adaptive direct search (MADS) algorithms for nonlinearly constrained optimization is extended to mixed variable problems. The resulting algorithm, MV-MADS, is then extended to stochastic problems (MVMADS-RS), via a ranking and selection procedure. Finally, a two-stage method is developed that combines the generalized pattern search/ranking and selection (MGPS-RS) algorithms for single-objective, mixed variable, stochastic problems with a multi-objective approach that makes use of interactive techniques for the specification of aspiration and reservation levels, scalarization functions, and multi-objective ranking and selection. A convergence analysis for the …


Unreliable Retrial Queues In A Random Environment, James D. Cordeiro Jr. Sep 2007

Unreliable Retrial Queues In A Random Environment, James D. Cordeiro Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation investigates stability conditions and approximate steady-state performance measures for unreliable, single-server retrial queues operating in a randomly evolving environment. In such systems, arriving customers that find the server busy or failed join a retrial queue from which they attempt to regain access to the server at random intervals. Such models are useful for the performance evaluation of communications and computer networks which are characterized by time-varying arrival, service and failure rates. To model this time-varying behavior, we study systems whose parameters are modulated by a finite Markov process. Two distinct cases are analyzed. The first considers systems with …


Hyperspectral Imagery Target Detection Using Improved Anomaly Detection And Signature Matching Methods, Timothy E. Smetek Jun 2007

Hyperspectral Imagery Target Detection Using Improved Anomaly Detection And Signature Matching Methods, Timothy E. Smetek

Theses and Dissertations

This research extends the field of hyperspectral target detection by developing autonomous anomaly detection and signature matching methodologies that reduce false alarms relative to existing benchmark detectors, and are practical for use in an operational environment. The proposed anomaly detection methodology adapts multivariate outlier detection algorithms for use with hyperspectral datasets containing tens of thousands of non-homogeneous, high-dimensional spectral signatures. In so doing, the limitations of existing, non-robust, anomaly detectors are identified, an autonomous clustering methodology is developed to divide an image into homogeneous background materials, and competing multivariate outlier detection methods are evaluated for their ability to uncover hyperspectral …


Optimizing Distribution Sensor Placement For Border Patrol Interdiction Using Microsoft Excel, Adrian C. Patrascu Jun 2007

Optimizing Distribution Sensor Placement For Border Patrol Interdiction Using Microsoft Excel, Adrian C. Patrascu

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to develop an electronic sensor placement model for border security. A model was developed using Microsoft Excel, with some add-on capabilities, to optimize the placement of electronic sensors on a border network given a pre-determined budgetary constraint. The model is capable of handling multiple sensor types, which are placed together as packages, and allows for daytime, nighttime, or 24 hour operation of each sensor type. Additionally, each sensor can be assigned a specific range and detection probability curve within the given range. The model is capable of optimizing either average coverage, or minimum coverage, …


Analysis Of Army Transformation And The Effects On Customer Ordering Behavior, Joseph M. Colacicco Jun 2007

Analysis Of Army Transformation And The Effects On Customer Ordering Behavior, Joseph M. Colacicco

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Army began a major force transformation in 2003, which required a significant shift in logistics support constructs. This thesis provides an in-process review of the effects of the current transformation efforts on supply effectiveness and attempts to determine factors that influence customer ordering behavior. Specifically, the thesis sought to answer three subproblems addressing the effect of transformation on supply effectiveness, the correlation of supply effectiveness metrics to customer ordering behavior, and other potential sources of variance in ordering behavior. The subproblems were answered through an examination of the supply document histories of two Brigades, one legacy Brigade …


Feasibility Study Of Variance Reduction In The Logistics Composite Model, George P. Cole Iii Mar 2007

Feasibility Study Of Variance Reduction In The Logistics Composite Model, George P. Cole Iii

Theses and Dissertations

The Logistics Composite Model (LCOM) is a stochastic, discrete-event simulation that relies on probabilities and random number generators to model scenarios in a maintenance unit and estimate optimal manpower levels through an iterative process. Models such as LCOM involving pseudo-random numbers inevitably have a variance associated with the output of the model for each run, and the output is actually a range of estimates. The reduction of the variance in the results of the model can be costly in the form of time for multiple replications. The alternative is a range of estimates that is too wide to realistically apply …


A Multivariate Magnitude Robust Control Chart For Mean Shift Detection And Change Point Estimation, Ryan M. Harrell Mar 2007

A Multivariate Magnitude Robust Control Chart For Mean Shift Detection And Change Point Estimation, Ryan M. Harrell

Theses and Dissertations

Statistical control charts are often used to detect a change in an otherwise stable process. This process may contain several variables affecting process stability. The goal of any control chart is to detect an out-of-control state quickly and provide insight on when the process actually changed. This reduces the off-line time the quality engineer spends assigning causality. In this research, a multivariate magnitude robust chart (MMRC) was developed using a change point model and a likelihood-ratio approach. Here the process is considered in-control until one or more normally distributed process variables permanently and suddenly shifts to out-of-control, stable value. Using …


A Layered Social And Operational Network Analysis, Jennifer L. Geffre Mar 2007

A Layered Social And Operational Network Analysis, Jennifer L. Geffre

Theses and Dissertations

To provide maximal disruption to a clandestine/terrorist network's ability to conduct missions, we must develop a means to determine the individuals' importance to the network and operations. In a network centric world, this importance is represented as an additive value of their criticality across the convergence of multiple layers of network connections. The connections layers of the network are comprised of social layers (Acquaintance, Friendship, Nuclear Family, Relatives, Student-Teacher, and Religious Mentors, Reverent Power and others), as well as layers representing interactions involving Resources, Knowledge/Skills and Temporal Local. The social criticality of an individual is measured by centrality. Event Trees …


Internet Protocol Geolocation: Development Of A Delay-Based Hybrid Methodology For Locating The Geographic Location Of A Network Node, John M. Roehl Mar 2007

Internet Protocol Geolocation: Development Of A Delay-Based Hybrid Methodology For Locating The Geographic Location Of A Network Node, John M. Roehl

Theses and Dissertations

Internet Protocol Geolocation (IP Geolocation), the process of determining the approximate geographic location of an IP addressable node, has proven useful in a wide variety of commercial applications. Commercial applications of IP Geolocation include market research, redirection for performance enhancement, restricting content, and combating fraud. The potential for military applications include securing remote access via geographic authentication, intelligence collection, and cyber attack attribution. IP Geolocation methods can be divided into three basic categories based upon what information is used to determine the geographic location of the given IP address: 1) Information contained in databases, 2) information that is leaked during …


Beyond Passswords: Usage And Policy Transformation, Alan S. Alsop Mar 2007

Beyond Passswords: Usage And Policy Transformation, Alan S. Alsop

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research is to determine whether the transition to a two-factor authentication system is more secure than a system that relied only on what users “know” for authentication. While we found that factors that made passwords inherently vulnerable did not transfer to the PIN portion of a two-factor authentication system, we did find significant problems relating to usability, worker productivity, and the loss and theft of smart cards. The new authentication method has disrupted our ability to stay connected to ongoing mission issues, forced some installations to cut off remote access for their users and in one …


Developing A Framwork For Evaluating Organizational Information Assurance Metrics Programs, Adam R. Bryant Mar 2007

Developing A Framwork For Evaluating Organizational Information Assurance Metrics Programs, Adam R. Bryant

Theses and Dissertations

The push to secure organizational information has brought about the need to develop better metrics for understanding the state of the organization’s security capability. This thesis utilizes case studies of information security metrics programs within Department of Defense organizations, the United States Air Force (USAF), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Jet Propulsion Lab to discover how these organizations make decisions about how the measurement program is designed, how information is collected and disseminated, and how the collected information supports decision making. This research finds that both the DOD and USAF have highly complex information security programs that …


Information Management Principles Applied To The Ballistic Missile Defense System, John M. Koehler Ii Mar 2007

Information Management Principles Applied To The Ballistic Missile Defense System, John M. Koehler Ii

Theses and Dissertations

Information systems (IS) have evolved over the last 50 plus years from individual components with single functionality to grand architectures that integrate multiple individual business functions into global organizational enterprises. Similarly several military systems with the single mission of missile defense have evolved in service stovepipes, and are now being integrated into a national and global missile defense architecture. The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is currently tasked with developing an integrated Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) capable of defending against all ranges of ballistic missiles in all phases of flight in defense of the homeland, our deployed forces, and our …


Improved Hyperspectral Image Testing Using Synthetic Imagery And Factorial Designed Experiments, Joseph P. Bellucci Mar 2007

Improved Hyperspectral Image Testing Using Synthetic Imagery And Factorial Designed Experiments, Joseph P. Bellucci

Theses and Dissertations

The goal of any remote sensing system is to gather data about the geography it is imaging. In order to gain knowledge of the earth's landscape, post-processing algorithms are developed to extract information from the collected data. The algorithms can be intended to classify the various ground covers in a scene, identify specific targets of interest, or detect anomalies in an image. After the design of an algorithm comes the difficult task of testing and evaluating its performance. Traditionally, algorithms are tested using sets of extensively ground truthed test images. However, the lack of well characterized test data sets and …


Approximate Analysis Of An Unreliable M/M/2 Retrial Queue, Brian P. Crawford Mar 2007

Approximate Analysis Of An Unreliable M/M/2 Retrial Queue, Brian P. Crawford

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis considers the performance evaluation of an M/M/2 retrial queue for which both servers are subject to active and idle breakdowns. Customers may abandon service requests if they are blocked from service upon arrival, or if their service is interrupted by a server failure. Customers choosing to remain in the system enter a retrial orbit for a random amount of time before attempting to re-access an available server. We assume that each server has its own dedicated repair person, and repairs begin immediately following a failure. Interfailure times, repair times and times between retrials are exponentially distributed, and all …


Selecting Electricity Generation Sources In Remote Locations, Kelly E. Kwan Mar 2007

Selecting Electricity Generation Sources In Remote Locations, Kelly E. Kwan

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to investigate the impact of using a decision analysis technique for the selection of an electrical generation system for remote locations. Specifically, this thesis sought to answer five research questions addressing the types of energy sources used in remote locations, the decision-making processes used to identify these sources, the types of constraints incorporated in such a process, other valued factors, and their level of importance in relation to each other. The research questions were answered through a comprehensive literature review and the 10-Step Value-Focused Thinking Process on a specific case study in the National …


Towards The Development Of A Defensive Cyber Damage And Mission Impact Methodology, Larry W. Fortson Jr. Mar 2007

Towards The Development Of A Defensive Cyber Damage And Mission Impact Methodology, Larry W. Fortson Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research is to establish a conceptual methodological framework that will facilitate effective cyber damage and mission impact assessment and reporting following a cyber-based information incidents. Joint and service guidance requires mission impact reporting, but current efforts to implement such reporting have proven ineffective. This research seeks to understand the impediments existing in the current implementation and to propose an improved methodology. The research employed a hybrid historical analysis and case study methodology for data collection through extensive literature review, examination of existing case study research and interviews with Air Force members and civilian personnel employed as …


The Chaos Of Katrina: A Nonlinear Analysis Of Federal Logistics Support During Hurricane Katrina Relief Operations, Gerald W. Morris Jr. Mar 2007

The Chaos Of Katrina: A Nonlinear Analysis Of Federal Logistics Support During Hurricane Katrina Relief Operations, Gerald W. Morris Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis presents a case study of federal logistics support during Hurricane Katrina disaster relief operations. Data from federal contracts covering the first 10 weeks of Katrina are used to measure federal logistics activity. The study investigates whether chaos theory, part of complexity science, can extract information from Katrina contracting data to help managers make better logistics decisions during disaster relief operations. The study uses three analytical techniques: embedding, fitting the data to a logistic equation, and plotting the limit-cycle. Embedding and fitting a logistic equation to the data were used to test for deterministic chaos. The logistic equation and …