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Air Force Institute of Technology

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Articles 961 - 990 of 1248

Full-Text Articles in Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering

Forecasting Market Index Performance Using Population Demographics, Bradley J. Alden Mar 1998

Forecasting Market Index Performance Using Population Demographics, Bradley J. Alden

Theses and Dissertations

This study attempted to verify claims made by forecaster Harry S. Dent, Jr. It utilized regression analysis in order to determine the correlation between the number of births and the closings on a market index with a specified lag between the input and output variables. While the research was able to develop a model with the factor Dent considers the most important, the predictions based on this model did not completely coincide with the forecasts Dent makes. Furthermore, the research could not confirm the accentuation Dent places on a 46-year lag between predictor and response variables. As an extension, scenarios …

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Application Of Decision Analysis To Evaluate Alternative Research And Development Investments, Michael J. Artelli Mar 1998

Application Of Decision Analysis To Evaluate Alternative Research And Development Investments, Michael J. Artelli

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis is an application of decision analysis techniques to the problem of evaluating competing research and development investments and selecting the best portfolio from among the alternatives. In contrast to the current ad hoc approach, decision analysis provides an explicit and easily explained rationale for investment choices, complete and consistent incorporation of multiple objectives, and direct insight into the effects of uncertain investment returns. A hierarchical objective decomposition was used to capture the user's preference structure. The hierarchy was then used to develop a computer-based decision aid to allow the users to quickly and consistently evaluate technology investment options. …

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Calculating A Value For Dominant Battlespace Awareness, Eric A. Beene Mar 1998

Calculating A Value For Dominant Battlespace Awareness, Eric A. Beene

Theses and Dissertations

In times of ever-tightening military budgets, methodologies are required that can compare the contributions of various systems involved in the warfighting process. While many tools are in use that directly measure the effects of greater numbers of enhanced hardware, and even improved processes, no validated methodology exists to measure elements that contribute to Command, Control, Communications, and Computers (C4); Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR); or to analytically compare these elements with more traditional hardware. This thesis develops a methodology for mathematically quantifying awareness in a military command and control (C2) environment. This methodology begins with the Observe-Orient-Decide-Act Loop to show …

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Parameter Estimation Of The Mixed Generalized Gamma Distribution Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation And Minimum Distance Estimation, Dean G. Boerrigter Mar 1998

Parameter Estimation Of The Mixed Generalized Gamma Distribution Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation And Minimum Distance Estimation, Dean G. Boerrigter

Theses and Dissertations

The Generalized Gamma is an extremely flexible distribution that is useful for reliability modeling. Among its many special cases are the Weibull and Exponential distributions. A mixture of Generalized Gamma Distributions is even more useful because multiple causes of failure can he simultaneously modeled. This research studied parameter estimation of the special cases of the Mixed Generalized Gamma Distribution and built upon them until the full nine-parameter distribution was being estimated. First, special cases of a single Generalized Gamma Distribution were estimated. Next, mixtures of Exponential distributions with both known and unknown location parameters were estimated. Next, mixtures of Weibull …

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Sensitivity Analysis Of Brawler Pilot Skill Levels, Daniel C. Buschor Mar 1998

Sensitivity Analysis Of Brawler Pilot Skill Levels, Daniel C. Buschor

Theses and Dissertations

BRAWLER is a high resolution air to air combat simulation model used for engagement level analyses of few on few air combat. It uses a value driven decision logic to help simulate pilot behavior. In order to account for varied pilot skill levels, BRAWLER has defined three skill levels; Rookie, Pilot, and Ace. A Rookie can track up to three aircraft in its mental model, the Pilot, up to five aircraft, while an Ace has no limit. Further, each skill level varies the amount of time before a known aircraft, which has not been recently observed, is purged from the …

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Solving Geometric Knapsack Problems Using Tabu Search Heuristics, Christopher A. Chocolaad Mar 1998

Solving Geometric Knapsack Problems Using Tabu Search Heuristics, Christopher A. Chocolaad

Theses and Dissertations

An instance of the geometric knapsack problem occurs in air lift loading where a set of cargo must be chosen to pack in a given fleet of aircraft. This paper demonstrates a new heuristic to solve this problem in a reasonable amount of time with a higher quality solution then previously reported in literature. We also report a new tabu search heuristic to solve geometric knapsack problems.

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A New Sequential Goodness Of Fit Test For The Three-Parameter Weibull Distribution With Known Shape Based On Skewness And Kurtosis, Jonathan C. Clough Mar 1998

A New Sequential Goodness Of Fit Test For The Three-Parameter Weibull Distribution With Known Shape Based On Skewness And Kurtosis, Jonathan C. Clough

Theses and Dissertations

The Weibull distribution finds wide applicability across a broad spectrum of disciplines and is very prevalent in reliability theory. Consequently, numerous statistical tests have been developed to determine whether sample data can be adequately modeled with this distribution. Unfortunately, the majority of these goodness-of-fit tests involve a substantial degree of computational complexity. The study presented here develops and evaluates a new sequential goodness-of-fit test for the three-parameter Weibull distribution with a known shape that delivers power comparable to popular procedures while dramatically reducing computational requirements. The new procedure consists of two distinct tests, using only the sample skewness and sample …

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An Airlift Hub-And-Spoke Location-Routing Model With Time Windows: Case Study Of The Conus-To-Korea Airlift Problem, David W. Cox Mar 1998

An Airlift Hub-And-Spoke Location-Routing Model With Time Windows: Case Study Of The Conus-To-Korea Airlift Problem, David W. Cox

Theses and Dissertations

Traditionally, the United States Air Force's Air Mobility Command (AMC) has used the concept of direct delivery to airlift cargo and passengers from a point of embarkation to a point of debarkation. This study develops an alternative hub-and-spoke combined location-routing integer linear programming prototype model, and uses this model to determine what advantages a hub-and-spoke system offers, and in which scenarios it is better-suited than the direct delivery method. Additionally, the analysis suggests that the C-17 may be better-suited, in certain airlift situations, for theater airlift versus strategic (direct delivery) airlift. The model features the following elements: time windows, cargo …

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Sensitivity Analysis Of The Thunder Combat Simulation Model To Command And Control Inputs Accomplished In A Parallel Environment, David A. Davies Mar 1998

Sensitivity Analysis Of The Thunder Combat Simulation Model To Command And Control Inputs Accomplished In A Parallel Environment, David A. Davies

Theses and Dissertations

This research had two objectives. The first was to develop a methodology to demonstrate the parallel processing capability provided by Air Force's Aeronautical System's Command (ASC) Major Shared Resource Center (MSRC) and apply that methodology to the SIMAF Proof of Concept project. Secondly, AFSAA/SAAB requested a sensitivity analysis of THUNDER to the modeled command and control (C2) inputs. The power of parallelization can not be overemphasized. The data collection phase of this thesis was accomplished at the MSRC using a script developed to automate the processing of an experimental design, providing the analyst with a launch and leave capability. On …

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A Life Cycle Cost Model For Innovative Remediation Technologies, Osman S. Dereli Mar 1998

A Life Cycle Cost Model For Innovative Remediation Technologies, Osman S. Dereli

Theses and Dissertations

LCC analysis is a powerful tool for investigating the costs of competing systems. This thesis investigates the cost scaling methods to improve the traditional LCC modeling techniques. The motivation for this research is finding a good estimate for the remediation technologies when the contaminant volume is not exactly known. This specific case lead researcher to investigating the methods of cost scaling and effects of inflation in the cost estimation. As a result of study a generic LCC model is developed. Methods for considering inflation and scaling are recommended and embodied into the model. The developed model is applied the specific …

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Generating Bomber Routes For The Delivery Of Gravity Weapons, Gregory J. Ehlers Mar 1998

Generating Bomber Routes For The Delivery Of Gravity Weapons, Gregory J. Ehlers

Theses and Dissertations

United States Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) is updating the Arsenal Exchange Model (AEM) that it uses for allocating strategic weapons to targets. AEM does not model the range constraints on bomber routes. These routes are used to deliver gravity munitions. In order to include these constraints in the new method, the Weapons Allocation Model (WAM), a pool of routes that satisfy the range constraints needs to be created. The number of possible routes to consider is extremely large and it is not possible to enumerate them all. Therefore, the method to form the pool of routes needs to reduce the number …

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Development Of A System To Determine The Economically Optimal Combination Of Housing For An Air Force Installation, Johnathan E. Hendrix Dec 1997

Development Of A System To Determine The Economically Optimal Combination Of Housing For An Air Force Installation, Johnathan E. Hendrix

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Military is faced with the decision of how to house its military members and their families. The three options available to house these families are: 1) utilize existing on-base housing; 2) build new on-base housing; or, 3) compensate a military family monetarily to find housing off-base. This research focused on the development of a tool to all the decision maker in determining what combination of the three options is economically optimal for an individual Air Force Installation. The model developed incorporates the costs associated to the local area and conditions at the specific installation to determine the …

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An Analysis Of Early Software Reliability Improvement Techniques, John G. Leonard, Ric K. Nordgren Dec 1997

An Analysis Of Early Software Reliability Improvement Techniques, John G. Leonard, Ric K. Nordgren

Theses and Dissertations

This research explores early life cycle software reliability prediction models or techniques to predict the reliability of software prior to writing code, and a method for increasing or improving the reliability of software products early in the development life cycle. Five prediction models and two development techniques are examined. Each model is statically analyzed in terms of availability of data early in the life cycle, ease of data collection, and whether data is currently collected. One model and the two techniques satisfied those requirements and are further analyzed for their ability to predict or improve software reliability. While the researchers …

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Scheduling And Sequencing Arrivals To A Stochastic Service System, Peter M. Vanden Bosch Nov 1997

Scheduling And Sequencing Arrivals To A Stochastic Service System, Peter M. Vanden Bosch

Theses and Dissertations

Optimization of scheduled arrival times to an appointment system is approached from the perspectives of both queueing and scheduling theory. The appointment system is modeled as a one-server, first-come-first-served, transient queue with independent, distinctly distributed service times and no-show rates. If a customer does show, it is assumed to be punctual. The cost of operating the appointment system is a convex combination of customers' waiting times and the server's overtime. While techniques for finding the optimal static and dynamic schedules of arrivals have been proposed by other researchers, they mainly have focused on identical customers and strictly punctual arrivals. This …

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Focused Graduate Education: An Invisible But Real Competitive Edge, Roland D. Kankey, Jan P. Muczyk, Neal M. Ely Oct 1997

Focused Graduate Education: An Invisible But Real Competitive Edge, Roland D. Kankey, Jan P. Muczyk, Neal M. Ely

Faculty Publications

The future mission of the Air Force will be diverse and complex. Advanced technology will play an increasingly prominent role; a smaller force must accomplish more. To support this mission, our acquisition corps must be intellectually capable, well educated and trained. Focused graduate education will be essential to sustain this effort.

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A Comparison Of The Military's Organic Movement And Commercial Express Carriers, Travis E. Condon, Kirk A. Patterson Sep 1997

A Comparison Of The Military's Organic Movement And Commercial Express Carriers, Travis E. Condon, Kirk A. Patterson

Theses and Dissertations

The DoD has begun outsourcing airlift in order to expedite high priority cargo movement. However, are commercial express carriers more expedient in the cargo delivery than the Air Force organic transportation system? Although anecdotal evidence suggests commercial carriers are faster, little empirical research has been conducted on this subject. This study compares the military's organic transportation system with Federal Express in the delivery of high priority cargo to Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany. The Large Sample Test of Hypothesis was used to determine if there was a significant difference between the cargo transit times of the two. The mean delivery time …

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Applying Cross-Decking And Activity-Based Costing To Military Distribution Centers: A Proposed Framework, Jonathan P. Elliott, Dwight H. Hintz Jr. Sep 1997

Applying Cross-Decking And Activity-Based Costing To Military Distribution Centers: A Proposed Framework, Jonathan P. Elliott, Dwight H. Hintz Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

Current events and fiscal constraints have focused DoD planners' attention on reducing logistics costs and improving efficiency while maintaining effective combat operations support. Military leaders are seeking private industry best practices that may help the DoD achieve these goals. Two commercially successful business practices that may help the DoD achieve its goals are cross-docking and Activity-Based Costing (ABC). Cross-docking is a commercially proven approach to material distribution through a distribution center that can help reduce inventories, speed material flows, and cut related logistics activity costs. However, the DoD is faced with the challenge of costing current and potential logistics processes …

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Foreign Military Sales Supply Support: Is There A Better Way?, Eric G. Ellmyer, Won Joon Jang Sep 1997

Foreign Military Sales Supply Support: Is There A Better Way?, Eric G. Ellmyer, Won Joon Jang

Theses and Dissertations

In today's world of declining defense budgets, there is an increasing need for South Korea to ensure they obtain the best dollar value when procuring defense articles. With the increasing financial situation, the purpose of this thesis is to research a surrogate third party firm and determine to what degree South Korea and other foreign military sales customers obtain the best value for their money for follow-on support item procurements. South Korea has participated in the Parts and Repair Ordering System program since its inception. However, South Korea has received little, if any, feedback regarding lead time and cost performance …

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The Effects Of Extraneous Presentation Graphics On Decision Making, Thomas S. Tingley Sep 1997

The Effects Of Extraneous Presentation Graphics On Decision Making, Thomas S. Tingley

Theses and Dissertations

Almost every professional presentation includes some form of graphics. Many previous researchers have analyzed the relative effectiveness of graphical decision aids, such as pie charts or bar graphs. Very little research, however, has been conducted to determine the effects of extraneous graphics, such as pictures and logos, on decision making. This study employed an experiment to determine whether extraneous graphics hinder or enhance a decision maker's ability to obtain the pertinent information from a professional presentation. Other factors such as gender and graphics training were also analyzed for any influence on the results obtained. The results of the study indicated …

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A Value Function Approach To Information Operations Moe's: A Preliminary Study, Michael P. Doyle, Richard F. Deckro, Jack M. Kloeber Jr., Jack A. Jackson Jr., Center For Modeling, Simulation, And Analysis, Air Force Institute Of Technology Jul 1997

A Value Function Approach To Information Operations Moe's: A Preliminary Study, Michael P. Doyle, Richard F. Deckro, Jack M. Kloeber Jr., Jack A. Jackson Jr., Center For Modeling, Simulation, And Analysis, Air Force Institute Of Technology

AFIT Documents

A value focused thinking approach is applied to information operations. A preliminary value hierarchy for information operations is constructed by extracting the values of senior military leadership from existing doctrine. To identify these key values for information operations, applicable existing doctrine was reviewed and summarized. Additionally, hierarchical representations of the values represented within each reviewed doctrine are developed. A value hierarchy requires that supporting objectives be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Within this analysis, these requirements are enforced, in part, by developed definitions which serve as tests to maintain mutual exclusivity. An exhaustive set of supporting values is also guaranteed …

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Sensitivity Analysis Of A Combat Simulation Using Response Surface Methodology, William J. Berg Mar 1997

Sensitivity Analysis Of A Combat Simulation Using Response Surface Methodology, William J. Berg

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis provides a methodology to analyze the sensitivity of a combat simulation relative to the capabilities of the modeled weapon systems. Response Surface Methodology (RSM) was the primary technique used for analysis. A ground battle scenario was developed with a commercial PC wargame Empire II: The Art of War(TM). In the computer verses computer mode, the wargame was transformed into a combat simulation'. A screening experiment was used to determine which of an original 23 weapon factors were actually significant to this scenario. After analyzing the remaining five factors, only three ended up as truly significant to the battle …

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A Decision Support System For Joint Force Air Component Commander (Jfacc) Combat Planning, Donald W. Hinton Mar 1997

A Decision Support System For Joint Force Air Component Commander (Jfacc) Combat Planning, Donald W. Hinton

Theses and Dissertations

This system allows assessment of the Master Air Attack Plan (MAAP) during construction and at completion. The system functions around a relational database management system providing a decision support tool for the Guidance, Apportionment, & Targeting (GAT) cell of Central Command's JFACC Combat Plans. A Microsoft Access application is programmed to provide PC-based, real time evaluation of air campaign goals and constraints. The decision support system was validated in February 1997 by the CENTAF combat plans staff at Blue Flag 97-1. The software and user's manual are maintained at HQ ACC/XP-Studies and Analysis Squadron.

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Selecting A Health Care Option For Military Beneficiaries That Minimizes Health Care Costs While Maintaining Personal Desires For Choice, Norman H. Pallister Mar 1997

Selecting A Health Care Option For Military Beneficiaries That Minimizes Health Care Costs While Maintaining Personal Desires For Choice, Norman H. Pallister

Theses and Dissertations

Tricare, the triservice, triple-option, managed care plan for the uniformed services, incorporates a managed care support contract to complement Military Treatment Facilities. Currently being implemented throughout the CONUS, Tricare provides more equitable health care service to all military beneficiaries, improved access to care, a reduction in health care costs, and provides beneficiaries with an expanded choice of medical-care providers. This thesis examines the Tricare program and reviews relevant health care literature, both military and civilian. Using these inputs, the author presents a deterministic decision analysis model that allows a military beneficiary to select a health care option that minimizes his …

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Analysis Of A Methodology For Linear Programming Optimality Analysis, Chanseok Jeong Mar 1997

Analysis Of A Methodology For Linear Programming Optimality Analysis, Chanseok Jeong

Theses and Dissertations

The methodology of Johnson, Baner, Moore, and Grant can be applied to large scale linear programming models. A methodology for optimality analysis of linear programs was developed to create metamodels using response surface methodology techniques such as experimental design and least squares regression. A metamodel consists of a simple equation which is able to predict the optimal objective function value of a linear program. What is needed is some large scale application of the techniques to verify how accurate they are. In the research, I plan to use the large scale LP model, STORM. I use the "Hot Start" idea …

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Modeling A Chemical Battlefield And The Resulting Effects In A Theater-Level Combat Model, Todd M. Gesling Mar 1997

Modeling A Chemical Battlefield And The Resulting Effects In A Theater-Level Combat Model, Todd M. Gesling

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis describes the development of a methodology to model chemical weapons use in the Joint Staff's Joint Warfare Analysis Experimental Prototype (JWAEP) and to quantify the resulting effects. The methodology incorporates organic unit assets and theater-level chemical assets into JWAEP by using the three principles of nuclear, biological, and chemical defense (NBC) which reflect joint and Army doctrine, and combines them with the basic concepts already used in existing theater-level models. Other aspects of the problem include representing chemical 'packages' on the battlefield, determining attrition and time effects, adjusting unit effectiveness, determining chemical package intelligence acquisition procedures, identifying solution …

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A Cercla-Based Decision Support System For Environmental Remediation Strategy Selection, Brian J. Grelk Mar 1997

A Cercla-Based Decision Support System For Environmental Remediation Strategy Selection, Brian J. Grelk

Theses and Dissertations

The Idaho National Environmental Engineering Laboratory (INEEL), operating in conjunction with the Department of Energy (DOE), faces with the complex decision of selecting an environmental remediation strategy for the Subsurface Disposal Area (SDA) of the Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC). This research uses value-focused thinking and multiattribute preference theory techniques to produce a decision analysis model to aid the decisionmakers as they select a remediation strategy. A deterministic analysis using expert opinion and the best available engineering data demonstrates the model's capabilities. The model ranks 27 specific remediation strategies based on how well they meet CERCLA's five balancing criteria: implementability, …

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System Comparison Procedures For Automatic Target Recognition Systems, Anne E. Catlin Mar 1997

System Comparison Procedures For Automatic Target Recognition Systems, Anne E. Catlin

Theses and Dissertations

Estimating the performance of an automatic target recognition (ATR) system in terms of probability of successful target identification involves extensive image collection and processing, which can be very time-consuming and expensive. We investigate the Wald sequential test for the difference in two proportions as a sample size-reducing alternative to ranking and selection and the classical method of comparing binomial confidence intervals. The test is modified for the multiple pairwise comparison of four systems, and is applied to actual data to compare different configurations of the Moving and Stationary Target Acquisition and Recognition (MSTAR) System.

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Analyzing Remediation Technologies For Department Of Energy Sites Contaminated With Dnapl Pollutants, Anthony F. Papatyi Mar 1997

Analyzing Remediation Technologies For Department Of Energy Sites Contaminated With Dnapl Pollutants, Anthony F. Papatyi

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Energy is in the process of conducting a Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study for a site contaminated with Dense Non-Aqueous Phase Liquid (DNAPL) pollutants at their Paducah Kentucky facility. A major part of this effort is the screening of alternative technologies. This thesis effort focuses on acquiring insight into a number of remediation technology trains that are candidates for the Paducah site. This insight is used to recommend and justify the screening of candidate technology trains. The research makes use of two decision analysis models (one is deterministic, the other is probabilistic) built to provide a quantitative assessment of …

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A Methodology For Evaluating And Enhancing C4i Networks, Christine C. Davis Mar 1997

A Methodology For Evaluating And Enhancing C4i Networks, Christine C. Davis

Theses and Dissertations

This effort focuses on expanding the bottleneck links of an existing C4I network to meet projected demands. The minimum cost-maximum flow algorithm is used to identify bottlenecks. A decision analysis approach enables the mapping of performance objectives for a network expansion into measurable attributes within the structure of a value hierarchy. A multi-attribute value function combines these measures into an overall system effectiveness measure. This allows for an evaluation of the impact of potential upgrade components on the system. A knapsack model imposes budgetary constraints on the selection of components. This methodology allows for the design of an optimized system …

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The Application Of Statistical Process Control To Departure Reliability Improvement, Liu W. Chieh Mar 1997

The Application Of Statistical Process Control To Departure Reliability Improvement, Liu W. Chieh

Theses and Dissertations

This research effort focuses on applying statistical process control (SPC) techniques to the departure reliability improvement process for Air Mobility Command, Mission Reliability Office. Basic SPC methods, including Pareto analysis, cause and effect diagrams, and control charts are determined to be effective tools for analyzing and assessing departure reliability. In addition, two more alternative measures of effectiveness for departure reliability are evaluated and compared using AMC's data. SPC methods are also shown to be useful in assessing in performance and in determining the reporting frequency for on-time performance information. Additional statistical analyses are conducted, including on-way analyses of variance, hypothesis …

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