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Air Force Institute of Technology

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Articles 1051 - 1080 of 1247

Full-Text Articles in Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering

Response Surface Methodology As A Sensitivity Tool In Decision Analysis, David A. Meyers Mar 1995

Response Surface Methodology As A Sensitivity Tool In Decision Analysis, David A. Meyers

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this study is to evaluate response surface methodology as a sensitivity analysis tool in the area of decision analysis. The advent of low-cost personal computer software, such as DPLTM, has created an accessible tool with the ability to frame and solve influence diagrams for decision problems. This study provides a comparison of current sensitivity analysis techniques vs those made possible through response surface methodology (RSM). Sensitivity analysis alternatives are demonstrated on a decision problem concerning the evaluation of force structure options for the Department of Defense. Sensitivity analysis is performed on both one-way and two-way perturbations of …

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The Effect Of Repeatedly Sampling An Embedded Metamodel On The Simulation Response, John Kent Patterson Mar 1995

The Effect Of Repeatedly Sampling An Embedded Metamodel On The Simulation Response, John Kent Patterson

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigated the effect on simulation output of repeatedly sampling an embedded metamodel. A metamodel is said to be embedded within a simulation if it is used to replace a submodule of that simulation. Replacing a deterministic module with an embedded deterministic metamodel poses no apparent mathematical problems. However, using a deterministic metamodel to replace a stochastic simulation component could require additional corrective actions. This research was performed in two phases. The first phase dealt with a set of tandem queues. It was shown that as each queue was sequentially replaced with a metamodel, the total system variance was …

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A Methodology For Evaluating Military Systems In A Counterproliferation Role, Stanley Stafira Jr. Mar 1995

A Methodology For Evaluating Military Systems In A Counterproliferation Role, Stanley Stafira Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops a methodology to evaluate how dissimilar military systems support the accomplishment of the United States? counterproliferation objectives. The overall scope is to develop a model of the counterproliferation decision process that enables systems to be evaluated against common criteria. By using decision analysis, an influence diagram model is developed which represents military activities in the counterproliferation process. The key questions which must be asked in evaluating counterproliferation systems are highlighted. An analysis of perfect intelligence, perfect defensive, and perfect offensive systems reveal that a perfect intelligence system provides the greatest potential to meet the United States' counterproliferation …

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A Methodology To Generate Air Force Materiel Command Manpower Reduction Alternatives, Steven T. Bishop Mar 1995

A Methodology To Generate Air Force Materiel Command Manpower Reduction Alternatives, Steven T. Bishop

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this study is to generate manpower authorization reduction alternatives for Air Force Materiel Command. The advent of low-cost personal computer software applications, such as Excel, has created an assessable tool with the ability to solve linear programming problems. This research examines the manpower resource reduction process of Air Force Materiel Command and models the Resources Allocation - Integrated Process Team (RA-IPT) decision process. A linear programming model is developed to assign these reduction through a weighted sum. The linear programming model is developed as a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet model, the Exercise Support Program (ESP), using Visual Basic …

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Modeling Corps Artillery In A Theater Level Combat Model, Richard F. Bowyer Mar 1995

Modeling Corps Artillery In A Theater Level Combat Model, Richard F. Bowyer

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis describes the development of a methodology to explicitly model corps artillery assets in the Joint Staff's Joint Stochastic Analysis Research (J-STOCHWAR) and to quantify Army doctrine that guides organization of artillery for combat. The methodology incorporates corps artillery into the J-STOCHWAR by using the five fundamentals for organizing for combat, which reflect Army doctrine, and combines them with basic concepts already used in existing theater-level models. Other aspects of the problem include determining the appropriate level of detail, identifying techniques to solve the problem, and verifying the results. The proposed decision analysis solution technique provides a feasible method …

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The Development Of A Metamodel For A Major Weapon System Cost Model, Paul W. Campbell Mar 1995

The Development Of A Metamodel For A Major Weapon System Cost Model, Paul W. Campbell

Theses and Dissertations

Cost estimation is an integral part of the procurement process of major weapon systems. Despite this essential role, the cost estimation process is able to provide the decision makers and analysts with a limited amount of insight. This is due to the complex nature of the cost models that typically contain 20-30 cost estimating relationships (CERs) and 50-100 variables. In an effort to provide the decision makers and analysts with additional insight to the cost estimate, this research demonstrates a methodology that will (1) identify the cost drivers of the cost model, ( 2) estimate the effects of these cost …

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Estimation Of The Captive-Carry Survival Function For The Advanced Medium Range Air-To-Air Missile (Amraam), David R. Denhard Mar 1995

Estimation Of The Captive-Carry Survival Function For The Advanced Medium Range Air-To-Air Missile (Amraam), David R. Denhard

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis considers the problem of estimating the survival function of an item (probability that the item functions for a time greater than a given time t) from sampling data subject to partial right censoring (a portion of the items in the sampling data have not yet been observed to fail). Specifically the thesis describes several parametric and non-parametric statistical models that can be used when the sampling data is subject to partial right censoring. These models are applied to the case of estimating the captive-carry survival function of the AIM-120A Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM).

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A New Goodness-Of-Fit Test For The Gamma Distribution Based On Sample Spacings From Complete And Censored Samples, Huseyin Duman Mar 1995

A New Goodness-Of-Fit Test For The Gamma Distribution Based On Sample Spacings From Complete And Censored Samples, Huseyin Duman

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis studies a new goodness-of-fit test for the gamma distribution with known shape parameter. This test statistic, Z*, is based on spacings from complete or censored samples. The size of samples varied between 5 and 35. The critical value tables were generated for the Z* test statistic for complete and censored samples. The critical values were obtained for five different significance levels: 0.20 0.15, 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01. An extensive power study, containing 50,000 Monte Carlo runs was conducted using nine alternative distributions, Ha. It was observed that the Z* test statistic was more powerful against certain …

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An Analytical Framework For Assessing Future Force Structure Requirements Under Uncertainty, Michael L. Fredley Mar 1995

An Analytical Framework For Assessing Future Force Structure Requirements Under Uncertainty, Michael L. Fredley

Theses and Dissertations

The objective of this research was to develop an analytical framework to assess future force structure requirements under the major uncertainties inherent in the post-Cold War era. Among the uncertainties are the frequency and nature of future threats to U.S. interests and the cost of maintaining, building, and demobilizing forces. The centerpiece of the methodology is a computer model which simulates the development of threats to U.S. interests and the actions the U.S. takes to protect those interests. From this simulation, the costs and risks associated with different policy alternatives can be estimated. The simulation is set within a broader …

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Modified Goodness-Of-Fit Tests For The Inverse Gaussian Distribution With Two Unknown Parameter, Huseyin Gunes Mar 1995

Modified Goodness-Of-Fit Tests For The Inverse Gaussian Distribution With Two Unknown Parameter, Huseyin Gunes

Theses and Dissertations

Modified Kolmogorov- Smirnov (KS), Anderson-Darling (AD), Cramer-von Mises (CV), Kupier (V), and Watson (W) goodness-of-fit tests are generated for the inverse Gaussian distribution with unknown parameters. The inverse Gaussian parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood estimation. A Monte Carlo simulation of 50,000 repetitions is used to generate critical values for sample sizes of 5 through 50 with an increment of five, sample sizes of 60 through 100 with an increment of 10, and 24 different values of the inverse Gaussian shape parameter. A 50,000-repetition Monte Carlo power study is carried out using data with sample sizes of 5 through 100 …

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A Methodology For Comparing The Value Of Competing Afmc Manpower Allocation Strategies, Sandra K. Smith Mar 1995

A Methodology For Comparing The Value Of Competing Afmc Manpower Allocation Strategies, Sandra K. Smith

Theses and Dissertations

This research effort develops a methodology for Air Force Materiel Command (AFMC) decision makers to use during mandated resource allocation exercises for comparing competing manpower allocation strategies. A value model is used to represent the hierarchical objectives of the command, with the primary objective being the attainment of maximum mission effectiveness in the face of constrained resources. Value model decomposition is patterned according to the command's organizational structure. Scoring functions derived using direct assessment survey techniques capture the relationship between manpower and mission effectiveness for lowest level organizations. An additive value function represents the model mathematically; the primary objective value …

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Dynamic Maintenance Scheduling For A Stochastic Telecommunication Network: Determination Of Performance Factors, Todd S. Patterson Mar 1995

Dynamic Maintenance Scheduling For A Stochastic Telecommunication Network: Determination Of Performance Factors, Todd S. Patterson

Theses and Dissertations

This research proposes an analytical approach to access the relationship between maintenance facility location and communication network performance measurement using a selected dynamic maintenance scheduling protocol. There were three objectives established for this effort. The first objective was the determination of an upper-bound upon the level of performance for a telecommunication network using dynamically scheduled maintenance to evaluate maintenance depot location. This was achieved by using a two-stage algorithm, first locate a maintenance depot by using stochastic algorithms, and then to measure the resulting impact upon performance with a multi-commodity network flow model. The second objective was to develop the …

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Right-Hand-Side Multidimensional Optimality Analysis Of A Large Scale Linear Program Using Metamodelling Techniques, Osman Iyde Mar 1995

Right-Hand-Side Multidimensional Optimality Analysis Of A Large Scale Linear Program Using Metamodelling Techniques, Osman Iyde

Theses and Dissertations

A methodology for optimality analysis of linear programs was developed by Johnson, Bauer, Moore, and Grant to create metamodels using response surface methodology techniques such as experimental design and least squares regression, and a geostatistical estimation technique, namely kriging. Metamodels have the form of a simple polynomial, and they predict the optimal objective function value of an LP for various levels of the constraints. They eliminate the necessity of determining which critical region contains the right-hand-side (RHS) vector of interest since they are valid over multiple critical regions. The methodology of Johnson, et al. can be applied to large scale …

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Multicriteria Mission Route Planning Using A Parallel A* Search, Michael S. Gudaitis Dec 1994

Multicriteria Mission Route Planning Using A Parallel A* Search, Michael S. Gudaitis

Theses and Dissertations

The Mission Route Planning (MRP) Problem falls into the general class of multicriteria path search problems. Multiple criteria are evaluated to select an optimal aircraft mission route through a hostile environment. Criteria for distance travelled and radar exposure are combined into a single cost function for route evaluation. Radar calculations are performed dynamically. The A* search algorithm is applied to the MRP problem, and a parallel implementation is developed and tested. A unique combination of distributed OPEN lists with a global CLOSED list strategy produced fast execution times on the Paragon. Test cases for scenarios with 15 radars took less …

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Implementation And Demonstration Of A Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation Failure Detection System For The F-16, Peter K. Eide Dec 1994

Implementation And Demonstration Of A Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation Failure Detection System For The F-16, Peter K. Eide

Theses and Dissertations

A Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation (MMAE) algorithm is implemented with the fully nonlinear six-degree-of-motion, Simulation Rapid-Prototyping Facility (SRF) VISTA F-16 software simulation tool. The algorithm is demonstrated to be capable of identifying flight critical aircraft actuator and sensor failures at a low dynamic pressure (20,000 ft, .4 Mach). Research included single and dual complete failures. Tuning methods for accommodating model mismatch, including addition of discrete dynamics pseudonoise and continuous measurement pseudonoise, are discussed and demonstrated. Scalar residuals within each filter are also examined and characterized for possible use as an additional failure declaration voter. Robustness to sensor failures provided by …

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A Decision Support Model For Establishing A Plastics Recycling Program, Deven M. Dalcher Dec 1994

A Decision Support Model For Establishing A Plastics Recycling Program, Deven M. Dalcher

Theses and Dissertations

This research focuses on the development of a decision support model for the establishment of a plastics recycling program. The decision support model focuses on identifying the end-product uses and material specifications first. Once the end-product specifications have been identified, the recycling program can be designed. The model will provide solid waste managers an effective decision-making tool to evaluate the economic feasibility of establishing a plastics recycling program.

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An Improved Heuristic For Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Crew Scheduling, Michael D. Shirley Jr. Dec 1994

An Improved Heuristic For Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Crew Scheduling, Michael D. Shirley Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

Creating monthly schedules for missile crews is a complex and time-consuming problem. Thousands of events must be scheduled for several hundred missile officers. The rules and regulations governing the problem are numerous, and there are currently no established measures for missile crew schedules. The scheduling software currently available only schedules a fraction of the events. The objectives of this research were to create a rule-based heuristic which could quickly produce feasible or near-feasible schedules, to make the scheduling process paperless, and to develop possible measures of effectiveness for missile crew schedules. The research was successful in each of these areas. …

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A Multi-Attribute-Utility-Theory Model That Minimizes Interview-Data Requirements: A Consolidation Of Space Launch Decisions, Raymond W. Staats Dec 1994

A Multi-Attribute-Utility-Theory Model That Minimizes Interview-Data Requirements: A Consolidation Of Space Launch Decisions, Raymond W. Staats

Theses and Dissertations

This research uses multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) to define a mathematical representation of a decision maker's utility associated with a satellite system. While developing the survey instrument, we focused on making it simpler to administer, primarily by eliminating the use of lottery questions. These simplifications enabled us to shorten our interview with the decision maker to under two hours for a rather complex model.

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An Exploration Of Technology Transfer Control: A Case Study Of Wright Laboratory, William K. West Dec 1994

An Exploration Of Technology Transfer Control: A Case Study Of Wright Laboratory, William K. West

Theses and Dissertations

Federal laboratories, system product centers, and military logistics centers are being challenged to leverage national investments in technology beyond their traditional customer base--technology transfer. Participation in domestic technology transfer is growing at an astounding rate. Additionally, the federal government has invested and continues to invest billions of dollars into active defense conversion, dual-use technology, and technology transfer. The objective of this research is to explore how one government laboratory controls its technology transfer process, in both the near and long terms. This research examines the motives for participating in technology transfer. The researcher presents several of the processes that are …

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Review Of Factors Impacting Cost Benefit Analysis (Cba) For Implementing Improvements To The Air Force Technical Order System, Susan J. Bergin, Terry A. Parsons Sep 1994

Review Of Factors Impacting Cost Benefit Analysis (Cba) For Implementing Improvements To The Air Force Technical Order System, Susan J. Bergin, Terry A. Parsons

Theses and Dissertations

This research focused on developing a Cost Benefit Analysis process for Program Managers to implement when deciding what technical order format-- paper, computerized or automated--to purchase. Factors which determined the outcome are costs life cycle cost considering technical order format qualitative issues characteristics which are benefits of a technical order format and system responsiveness time required to develop or modify a technical order in each format. A literature review revealed problems with the paper technical order format, management infrastructure, quantitative cost estimates for different formats, and different techniques which could be used for a cost benefit analysis. Structured interviews were …

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Analysis Of The Jplan Exercise As An Experimental Learning Tool, Mark J. Lynch, Michael E. Washington Sep 1994

Analysis Of The Jplan Exercise As An Experimental Learning Tool, Mark J. Lynch, Michael E. Washington

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this study is to develop an effective educational tool for the Combat Logistics course offered at the Air Force Institute of Technology. The current tool being used, the JPLAN Exercise, was identified as outdated in several areas. The research focused upon four investigative questions what makes an effective educational tool, should the existing exercise be revised or replaced, which logistics principles are essential for incorporation into the educational tool, and is the updated tool significantly different from the original. To answer these questions, we conducted an extensive literature review that focused on two areas. The first area …

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How Effective Has The Air Force Been In Eliminating Its Dependence On Ozone Depleting Chemicals?, L. Susan Willard Sep 1994

How Effective Has The Air Force Been In Eliminating Its Dependence On Ozone Depleting Chemicals?, L. Susan Willard

Theses and Dissertations

This research was undertaken to determine how effectively the Air Force had eliminated its dependence on Ozone Depleting Chemicals. The research was limited to analyzing the impact of ODCs on major acquisition programs. Results indicated existing variables which may be impeding full implementation. Also identified were lessons learned which could be applied to future environmental legislation with potential impact on acquisition programs. In- depth telephonic interviews were conducted with Program Directors responsible for the development and fielding of major Air Force acquisition programs. Analysis revealed that ODCs substantially impacted the acquisition programs to the extent that many programs had classified …

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Defense Industrial Base Policy: Revisited, Michael E. Heberling Jul 1994

Defense Industrial Base Policy: Revisited, Michael E. Heberling

Faculty Publications

In an era of decreasing defense budgets and enemy threats, problems associated with maintaining a healthy defense industrial base have become pronounced. This article discussed defense industrial policy goals and argues that these goals may be collectively unobtainable.

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Embedded Chaotic Time Series: Applications In Prediction And Spatio-Temporal Classification, James R. Stright Jun 1994

Embedded Chaotic Time Series: Applications In Prediction And Spatio-Temporal Classification, James R. Stright

Theses and Dissertations

The Deterministic Versus Stochastic algorithm developed by Martin Casdagli is modified to produce two new, methodologies, each of which selectively uses embedding space nearest neighbors. Neighbors which are considered prediction relevant are retained for local linear prediction, while those which are considered likely to represent noise are ignored. For many time series, it is shown possible to improve on local linear prediction with both of the new algorithms. Furthermore, the theory of embedology is applied to determine a length of test sequence sufficient for accurate classification of moving objects. Sequentially recorded feature vectors of a moving object form a training …

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Dynamic Load Balancing For A Parallel Discrete-Event Battlefield Simulation, Seth R. Guanu Jun 1994

Dynamic Load Balancing For A Parallel Discrete-Event Battlefield Simulation, Seth R. Guanu

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates issues involved in developing a dynamic load balancing model for a parallel discrete event battlefield simulation. The research covers issues in task management, discrete-event simulation, parallel simulation, and load balancing. There are four primary issues discussed concerning the design of a dynamic load balancing model. The first issue is processor load evaluation which deals with the calculation of the amount of work on a processor. The second issue is load balancing profitability determination which deals with the decision to load balance or not based on some cost-gain relationship. The third issue is task migration which deals with …

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Application Of Sequential Quadratic Programming To Large-Scale Structural Design Problems, Mark A. Abramson Mar 1994

Application Of Sequential Quadratic Programming To Large-Scale Structural Design Problems, Mark A. Abramson

Theses and Dissertations

Large-scale structural optimization problems are often difficult to solve with reasonable efficiency and accuracy. Such problems are often characterized by constraint functions which are not explicitly defined. Constraint and gradient functions are usually expensive to evaluate. An optimization approach which uses the NLPQL sequential quadratic programming algorithm of Schittkowski, integrated with the Automated Structural Optimization System ASTROS is tested. The traditional solution approach involves the formulation and solution of an explicitly defined approximate problem during each iteration. This approach is replaced by a simpler approach in which the approximate problem is eliminated. In the simpler approach, each finite element analysis …

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A Simulation Approach To Granite Sentry System Analysis, Marilyn J. Bauer Mar 1994

A Simulation Approach To Granite Sentry System Analysis, Marilyn J. Bauer

Theses and Dissertations

This study demonstrated the use of simulation modelling to analyze Granite Sentry system performance. The availability simulation model constructed provides a number of system performance measures as a function of component MTBFs and MTTRs. Analysis of failure data prior to model construction supported the generally accepted use of exponentially distributed failure rates and lognormally distributed repair times.

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A Mean Value Analysis Heuristic For Analysis Of Aircraft Sortie Generation, Richard C. Jenkins Mar 1994

A Mean Value Analysis Heuristic For Analysis Of Aircraft Sortie Generation, Richard C. Jenkins

Theses and Dissertations

The primary objective of this study was to develop an analytical methodology based on the Mean Value Analysis algorithm that approximates the performance characteristics of a queueing network model QNM containing a fork- join queue with probabilistic branching. These performance characteristics are response time, throughput and queue length at each station. The QNM solved contains the essential features of the aircraft sortie generation process. The sensitivity of the methods accuracy to increases in server utilization was determined. The comparisons of the results of the MVA heuristic to the outputs of the Logistics Composite Model LCOM simulation indicate that the heuristics …

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A Fortran Based Learning System Using Multilayer Back-Propagation Neural Network Techniques, Gregory L. Reinhart Mar 1994

A Fortran Based Learning System Using Multilayer Back-Propagation Neural Network Techniques, Gregory L. Reinhart

Theses and Dissertations

An interactive computer system which allows the researcher to build an optimal neural network structure quickly, is developed and validated. This system assumes a single hidden layer perceptron structure and uses the back- propagation training technique. The software enables the researcher to quickly define a neural network structure, train the neural network, interrupt training at any point to analyze the status of the current network, re-start training at the interrupted point if desired, and analyze the final network using two- dimensional graphs, three-dimensional graphs, confusion matrices and saliency metrics. A technique for training, testing, and validating various network structures and …

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Assessing The Vulnerability Of Multi-Commodity Networks With Failing Components, Alan R. Robinson Mar 1994

Assessing The Vulnerability Of Multi-Commodity Networks With Failing Components, Alan R. Robinson

Theses and Dissertations

This research proposes an analytical approach for assessing flow disturbance, or compromise, based on limited sampling of arc flow information in multi-commodity, or multiple origin-destination O-D, networks with failing arcs. There were three objectives established for this research. The first objective was to bound the expected flow, given the arcs fail with certain probabilities, which was accomplished by reviewing current approaches for single-commodity networks and extending the results to the multi-commodity case. The second objective was to determine the best placement of flow monitors to obtain the most accurate estimates of O-D pair volumes. This was accomplished using a multi-criteria …

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