Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

Embedded Chaotic Time Series: Applications In Prediction And Spatio-Temporal Classification, James R. Stright

Theses and Dissertations

The Deterministic Versus Stochastic algorithm developed by Martin Casdagli is modified to produce two new, methodologies, each of which selectively uses embedding space nearest neighbors. Neighbors which are considered prediction relevant are retained for local linear prediction, while those which are considered likely to represent noise are ignored. For many time series, it is shown possible to improve on local linear prediction with both of the new algorithms. Furthermore, the theory of embedology is applied to determine a length of test sequence sufficient for accurate classification of moving objects. Sequentially recorded feature vectors of a moving object form a training …

Analysis Of Thunder Combat Simulation Model, Timothy S. Webb

Theses and Dissertations

TAC THUNDER, or THUNDER, is a two-sided large scale computer simulation model that simulates air and ground combat, logistics, and limited airlift at the theater level. It is in use by several allied nations, major defense contractors, and various Department of Defense DoD analysis agencies. The objectives of this thesis effort were to examine the overall model variability, examine the model output for possible interrelationships, and examine the model sensitivity to input parameters. A univariate and multivariate analysis was performed to examine the first two objectives. The univariate analysis consisted of an analysis of the confidence intervals and replication requirements …

An Analysis Of Stopping Criteria In Artificial Neural Networks, Bruce Kostal

Theses and Dissertations

The goal of this study was to decide when to terminate training of an artificial neural network ANN. In pursuit of this goal, several characteristics of the ANN were monitored throughout ANN training classification error rate of the training set, testing set, or a weighted average of the two moving average classification error rate measurements of the difference between ANN output and desired output error sum of squares, total absolute error. or largest absolute error or ANN weight changes absolute weight change, squared weight change, or relative weight change. Throughout this research, the learning rate was held constant at 0.35. …

An Analysis Of Air Force Acquisition Engineering Officer's Perceptions Of The Adequacy Of Their Preparation For Management, Steven E. Woodruff

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this study was to determine how much time Air Force acquisition engineers spend in performing management functions, how those engineers spend in performing management functions, how those engineers perceive their management training, and which types of training contribute the most to managerial competency. The results from surveys of 215 acquisition engineers assigned to ASCEN, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH and their supervisors revealed that engineers do indeed spend substantial amounts of time performing management functions. Slightly more than half the engineers reported spending at least 50 of an average workday performing management functions. Over 53 of engineers responding to …

A Mean Value Analysis Heuristic For Analysis Of Aircraft Sortie Generation, Richard C. Jenkins

Theses and Dissertations

The primary objective of this study was to develop an analytical methodology based on the Mean Value Analysis algorithm that approximates the performance characteristics of a queueing network model QNM containing a fork- join queue with probabilistic branching. These performance characteristics are response time, throughput and queue length at each station. The QNM solved contains the essential features of the aircraft sortie generation process. The sensitivity of the methods accuracy to increases in server utilization was determined. The comparisons of the results of the MVA heuristic to the outputs of the Logistics Composite Model LCOM simulation indicate that the heuristics …

A Simulation Approach To Granite Sentry System Analysis, Marilyn J. Bauer

Theses and Dissertations

This study demonstrated the use of simulation modelling to analyze Granite Sentry system performance. The availability simulation model constructed provides a number of system performance measures as a function of component MTBFs and MTTRs. Analysis of failure data prior to model construction supported the generally accepted use of exponentially distributed failure rates and lognormally distributed repair times.

Proactive Monitoring Of Performance In Stochastic Communication Networks, John C. C. Van Hove

Theses and Dissertations

This research proposes several models for placing bounds on the expected values of some dynamic performance measures for computer communication networks with failing components. These models provide an understanding of expected network performance that is useful in the process of proactive performance monitoring and also in defining level of service agreements with network users. There were three objectives for this research. The first objective was to extend some existing models of steady-state stochastic network performance to a dynamic network flow representation in order to capture the dynamic nature of proactive monitoring. The second objective was to convert the extended absolute …

An Investigation Of Simulated Annealing Applied To Structural Optimization Problems, Richard C. Mceachin

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates the feasibility of using Simulated Annealing SA in structural optimization problems. The investigation involves solving benchmark structural optimization problems with an SA algorithm, and comparing its solutions to those found by four other optimizers. Overall, the analysis shows that SA has limited applicability in structural optimization. Two primary factors were found to adversely impact the performance of the SA algorithm in these problems. These factors are high dimensionality, and high levels of constraint. The difficulty involved in solving these problems with a random search increases exponentially with the number of dimensions. The number, and non-linearity, of the …

Application Of Sequential Quadratic Programming To Large-Scale Structural Design Problems, Mark A. Abramson

Theses and Dissertations

Large-scale structural optimization problems are often difficult to solve with reasonable efficiency and accuracy. Such problems are often characterized by constraint functions which are not explicitly defined. Constraint and gradient functions are usually expensive to evaluate. An optimization approach which uses the NLPQL sequential quadratic programming algorithm of Schittkowski, integrated with the Automated Structural Optimization System ASTROS is tested. The traditional solution approach involves the formulation and solution of an explicitly defined approximate problem during each iteration. This approach is replaced by a simpler approach in which the approximate problem is eliminated. In the simpler approach, each finite element analysis …

The Effective Use Of Animation In Simulation Model Validation, Christopher L. Swider

Theses and Dissertations

This study examined two animation displays moving icons, bar graphs at two presentation speeds to determine how each of these factors affected the animations ability to communicate violations of model assumptions. Subjects viewed animation displays individually and in combination at each presentation speed. Eight problem scenarios were presented to evaluate each animations ability to communicate violations of different assumptions. Each animations communication ability was measured subjectively and objectively. Subjective measures in the form of pairwise comparisons were used to calculate normalized preference ratings for each animation. objective measures included problem identification accuracy and problem time. Subjective results indicated that moving …

An Rsm Study Of The Effects Of Simulation Work And Metamodel Specification On The Statistical Quality Of Metamodel Estimates, Michael K. Taylor

Theses and Dissertations

This research investigated the combined influence of simulation work and metamodel specification on the statistical quality of the estimates obtained from the resulting metamodels of the simulation data. A 9 x 2 x 2 experiment consisting of 9 cases of simulation work, 2 levels of metamodel specification, and 2 levels of design fractionation were designed for 8 different configurations of MMk queues. The only observed statistic for this experiment was the average queue length. Simulation estimates for each configurations average queue length were calculated directly from the simulation data. In addition, the metamodels were fit to the simulation data and …

An Integer Solution Heuristic For The Arsenal Exchange Model (Aem), Daniel J. Green

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force Studies and Analyses Agency sought a method for converting the continuous solution produced by the Arsenal Exchange Model into a feasible integer solution. The current integerization method leaves weapons unused and targets uncovered and could be improved. In the method developed, the noninteger valued variables in the continuous solution are rounded down to the nearest integer to produce a truncated solution. An integer goal program is then used to reallocate the weapons and targets made available in the rounding process. The truncated solution is then combined with the solution of the integer goal program to produce a …

An Air Mission Planning Algorithm For A Theater Level Combat Model, Brian J. Griggs

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis describes the development of an air mission planning algorithm for the Joint Staffs Future Theater Level Model FTLM. The overall problem scope was to develop an algorithm to handle major factors bearing on the combat mission planning problem while providing hook-ups for the FTLM architecture. Other aspects of the problem included finding the appropriate level of detail, developing a fast solving technique, and attempting to use existing data. The problem was handled by using some ideas from existing aircraft allocation algorithms and by adding some new techniques. The proposed air mission planning algorithm supplies the optimum degree of …

Assessing The Vulnerability Of Multi-Commodity Networks With Failing Components, Alan R. Robinson

Theses and Dissertations

This research proposes an analytical approach for assessing flow disturbance, or compromise, based on limited sampling of arc flow information in multi-commodity, or multiple origin-destination O-D, networks with failing arcs. There were three objectives established for this research. The first objective was to bound the expected flow, given the arcs fail with certain probabilities, which was accomplished by reviewing current approaches for single-commodity networks and extending the results to the multi-commodity case. The second objective was to determine the best placement of flow monitors to obtain the most accurate estimates of O-D pair volumes. This was accomplished using a multi-criteria …

A Fortran Based Learning System Using Multilayer Back-Propagation Neural Network Techniques, Gregory L. Reinhart

Theses and Dissertations

An interactive computer system which allows the researcher to build an optimal neural network structure quickly, is developed and validated. This system assumes a single hidden layer perceptron structure and uses the back- propagation training technique. The software enables the researcher to quickly define a neural network structure, train the neural network, interrupt training at any point to analyze the status of the current network, re-start training at the interrupted point if desired, and analyze the final network using two- dimensional graphs, three-dimensional graphs, confusion matrices and saliency metrics. A technique for training, testing, and validating various network structures and …

Extending Simulation’S Advantages To Novice Model Builders: Intellisim Tutorial, Paul Savory, Gerald Mackulak, Jeff Cochran

Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering: Faculty Publications

The potential benefits that discrete-event simulation offers are impeded by the high level of expertise necessary to successfully conduct a sound simulation study. As a solution, this paper introduces IntelliSIM, an intelligent simulation environment. Using this environment makes simulation more accessible to users by reducing the need for extensive experience or training. One of IntelliSIM’s key features for accomplishing this is a tutorial and training module that quickly acquaints a novice simulation user with IntelliSIM’s features and the process of performing a simulation study. This paper discusses this tutorial by explaining how IntelliSIM develops a simulation model, thus illustrating how …

The Science Of Simulation Modeling, Paul Savory, Gerald Mackulak

Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering: Faculty Publications

Many people refer to simulation model building as an “intuitive art”. This implies that modeling can only be done by a select group of highly trained creative people and thus isolates many from considering simulation as a usable tool. Model building is a science that is learned through education, training and experience. In this paper, we discuss the role of science in performing a simulation study. We illustrate the teaching of the science of simulation by discussing the simulation curriculum at Arizona State University.

Ascertaining Important Features For Industrial Simulation Environments, Gerald Mackulak, Jeffery Cichran, Paul Savory

Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering: Faculty Publications

Recent years have witnessed the development and commercial release of multiple simulation tools, environments, and intelligent simulators. Each release seems to contain additional advanced features designed to simplify simulation use and increase the productivity of model builders. But to date, no one has addressed feature definition from the viewpoint of a simulation practitioner. This paper discusses our efforts to identify and prioritize simulation features deemed most desirable from the practitioner viewpoint. A series of three questionnaires were developed and administered to a group of qualified simulation practitioners. With results that are of interest to simulation users, researchers, and simulation software …

Materials Recovery Facilities In The United States Virgin Islands: A Regional Facilities Location Model Study, Lloyd O. Prince Jr.

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Continental municipalities have derived many benefits from the economies of scale associated with a regional approach to facilities location and management planning. Centralized solid waste processing facilities is an example. Island communities, however, surrounded by miles of ocean, are constrained to a fragmented approach to the facilities location solution. This research was conducted to determine if the regional paradigm suggested in the literature is applicable to a set of island communities connected by an ocean transportation infrastructure. A linear programming (LP) model, constraints and data requirements were developed and applied to a network of islands. A series of hypothetical material …

Teamwork In The Workplace: A Discovery Of The Work Processes One Team Used To Meet Its Goals, Thomas Andrew Hassler

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

A century-old disagreement in academia surrounds the question of whether individuals acting alone accomplish all work or whether workers can truly act in concert to meet management's production requirements. Total Quality Management (TQM) is a powerful force today in the industrial world, and the formation of teams to solve short-term problems is one of its fundamental techniques. This dissertation focuses on a particular TQM team with the purpose of understanding the processes it used to meet its goals. This ten-member team functioned for about one year and was assigned goals leading to improved accelerator reliability. The investigator was a member …

Synthetic Battlebridge: Information Visualization And User Interface Design Applications In A Large Virtual Reality Environment, Kirk G. Wilson

Theses and Dissertations

With shrinking budgets and fewer personnel, future military training will rely heavily on simulated environments. The goal for this training is to reduce cost while maintaining readiness and unparalleled capability for all levels of military command. This thesis effort, the Synthetic Battle Bridge SBB , provides a real-time simulated environment for military commanders to observe on-going computer simulations of varying participation levels and helps them wring the most from a simulation. The SBB, designed for higher ranking personnel with little time to spend learning how to run the system, must exhibit three capabilities ease-of-use, long-term retention, and adaptability. Based on …

Integration And Enhancement Of The Saber Wargame, Karl S. Mathias

Theses and Dissertations

The Saber wargame is a theater-level air/land battle wargame written in Ada that is being developed for the Air Force Wargaming Center at Maxwell AFB, AL. This thesis documents how the user interface and simulation engine were integrated. Integration was accomplished by developing a portable object-oriented database system (OODBMS) interface. The interface was implemented in Ada and tied to an OODBMS also written in Ada. Using the interface, both subsystems were able to work from a consistent database and exchange information. The user interface was enhanced by converting it from the Software Technology for Adaptable Reliable Systems Ada/X Window System …

The Application Of Simulated Annealing To Stochastic Systems, Charles B. Warrender

Theses and Dissertations

Simulated Annealing was used to optimize three constrained simulation models. For each of these models, seven different acceptance functions were evaluated and compared against the performance of Local Search. These comparisons demonstrated the affect that different acceptance functions have on the performance of the algorithm. The performance was measured by the average solution quality and average efficiency obtained from several runs. The first model facilitated the implementation of Simulated Annealing using the SLAM simulation language. The configuration space was small, described by only two decision variables. It demonstrated the viability of using Simulated Annealing to optimize the variable settings in …

A Robust Aggregation Approach To Simplification Of Manufacturing Flow Line Models, Paul Savory

Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering: Presentations

One of the more difficult tasks facing a modeler in developing a simulation model of a discrete part manufacturing system is deciding at what level of abstraction to represent the resources of the system. For example, questions about plant capacity can be modeled with a simple model, whereas questions regarding the efficiency of different part scheduling rules can only be answered with a more detailed model. In developing a simulation model, most of the actual features of the system under study must be ignored and an abstraction must be developed. If done correctly, this idealization provides a useful approximation of …

A Robust Aggregation Approach To Simplification Of Manufacturing Flow Line Models, Paul Savory

Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering: Faculty Publications

One of the more difficult tasks facing a modeler in developing a simulation model of a discrete part manufacturing system is deciding at what level of abstraction to represent the resources of the system. For example, questions about plant capacity can be modeled with a simple model, whereas questions regarding the efficiency of different part scheduling rules can only be answered with a more detailed model. In developing a simulation model, most of the actual features of the system under study must be ignored and an abstraction must be developed. If done correctly, this idealization provides a useful approximation of …

An Investigation Of Alternative Metamodels For The Theater Simulation Of Airbase Resources Model, Alistair G. Dally

Theses and Dissertations

This study is an exploratory investigation into the development of metamodels of a particular Theater Simulation of Airbase Resources (TSAR) simulation model. Techniques applicable to the development of metamodels from a simulation using an orthogonal two-level fractional factorial experimental design are discussed. The experimental design is found to limit the metamodel form to polynomial linear least squares regression models, and also to greatly simplify the process of building regression models. Using the simulation results from previous research, alternate metamodels are proposed for both the prediction of sorties generated by the airbase system, as modeled by the simulation; and to assist …

A Parametric Regression Of The Cost Of Base Realignment Action (Cobra) Model, Douglas D. Hardman, Michael S. Nelson

Theses and Dissertations

This study develops a parametric model that is capable of generating accurate estimates of the costs to close Air Force installations. The new model is based upon, but much simpler to use than, the Cost of Base Realignment Action (COBRA) model. COBRA is an economic cost analysis model that requires a minimum of 250 inputs and as many as 700 inputs. The new parametric model requires just 10 input variables and was developed using least squares multiple regression. Comparison of the new parametric model to COBRA indicates that it captures 91 percent of the variance in cost estimates generated by …

Development Of A Knowledge Based System For Wastewater Pipeline Failure Risk Assessment, Adam Mayanzani Ngaliga

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of this thesis was to study and analyze the wastewater pipeline failure risk assessment process, and then design and develop an effective and efficient wastewater pipeline risk assessment tool for the Hampton Roads Sanitation District, in Virginia, U.S.A. A knowledge based system was developed using an expert system building shell (Xi-Plus).

The system design is based on the knowledge elicited from the experts and literature in sanitary pipeline failure risk evaluation. The knowledge base contains both heuristics and procedural rules. The system interprets the information provided by the user and reasons from that information to reach conclusions on …

A Computer-Based Strategy To Facilitate Organizational Learning Process, Charles B. Keating

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This research investigated the development of Organizational Learning Process (OLP) through the application of a computer-based strategy in an organizational setting. OLP is developed from the organizational learning literature as an integration of similar concepts of organizational processes of inquiry essential to organizational learning. These concepts included: organizational dialectic (Argyris and Schon 1978), surfacing and testing mental models (Senge 1990a,1990b), and interpretation process (Daft and Weick 1984). A qualitative research methodology was developed within a participatory action research framework (Whyte 1989). A six phase research project, designed as a computer-based strategy to generate OLP, was applied in an organizational setting. …

A Sociotechnical Approach To The Study Of Semiautonomous Work Group Communication In Technical Organizations, Elizabeth B. Varnes

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The sociotechnical aspects of group communication in semiautonomous technical work teams were investigated to understand how team members define "effective" group communication and what impact technical tools have on the group communication process. A team of workers with various technical backgrounds was selected for study. The study involved videotaped group sessions, a group training educational briefing and individual group member questionnaires. The results indicate that group members believed sharing information among group members was critical to successful communication and that certain technical tools could be effective during group meetings. The findings are congruent with the general theory that group communication …