Computer Engineering Commons^™

A Modeling Framework For Oceanic Basins Under Double Exposure, Christian Mullon, Gorka Merino, Jose Fernandez, William Cheung, Manuel Barange

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Oceans stand under double exposure to global warming and of economic globalization. This generates anxieties and contributes to the need for specific governance. A first expression lies in the needs for integrated representations allowing a collaborative development of scenarios. Main challenge here lies in finding, in these representations, a balance between realism and abstraction admissible by all participants.

In this talk, we present modeling framework that has been designed to build scenarios about the possible futures of an oceanic basin. The principle lies in using a network model in which nodes correspond to fish stocks, specialized fleets, farming systems, trade …

Alces Online: Web-Delivered Scenario Analysis To Inform Sustainable Land-Use Decisions, Matthew Carlson, Brad Stelfox, Noah Purves-Smith, Justin Straker, Shanti Berryman, Tim Barker, Barry Wilson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Simulation models are yet to reach their potential to inform environmental sustainability, in part due to inaccessibility. ALCES Online (www.online.alces.ca) addresses this deficiency through web-delivery of high quality scenario analysis to individuals lacking a modeling background. The simulator is available for the province of Alberta, Canada, and efforts are underway to create versions for additional jurisdictions. The underlying scenario analysis is holistic through incorporation of a diverse set of drivers and indicators. Simulated land uses include energy, agriculture, mining, forestry, and human settlements; natural drivers such as fire are also included. Environmental and socioeconomic consequences are conveyed by tracking indicators …

Lidar And Hyperspectral Data For Landscape And Vegetation Classification And Monitoring, Ake Sivertun, Katharina Zöphel, Simon Ahlberg

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Mapping of forest areas and other landscapes as to combine information about ground structures, topography as well as other natural and man-made features can be made with help of Li- DAR (Elmqvist, M. 2001). The result can be used for planning military and civil missions and analysis of the possibility to drive though areas with bad or no roads (Sivertun & Gumos 2006) as well as for management of natural recourses and for example in physical planning. By combining LiDAR and other remotely sensed data it is possible to make use of the different advantages the different sensors provides. In …

The Value Of Seasonal Productivity Forecasting In Biodiesel Plans, Giulia Fiorese, Giorgio Guariso

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Crop productivity is commonly assumed as a deterministic function when developing agricultural plans. Actual data prove however that, even for the same soil at the same location, crop productivity can be better interpreted as a random variable due to the meteorological conditions of the specific year. For the production of biodiesel, crops are easily substitutable and the farmer can chose every year between various alternatives. Without information on the seasonal meteorology, the farmers select the crop to cultivate mainly on the basis of the expected productivity. However, changes in the meteorological situation may result in a reduction in crop profitability. …

W(H)Ither The Oracle? Cognitive Biases And Other Human Challenges Of Integrated Environmental Modeling, Pierre D. Glynn

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) can organize and increase our knowledge of the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control the quality of our environments. Human behavior, however, must be taken into account. Human biases/heuristics reflect adaptation over our evolutionary past to frequently experienced situations that affected our survival and that provided sharply distinguished feedbacks at the level of the individual. Unfortunately, human behavior is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced, less frequently encountered, problems and issues that IEM typically seeks to address in the simulation of natural resources and environments. While seeking inspiration from the prophetic …

Modelling Water And Land Resource Management In Dry Rainfed Areas Of India: Connecting The Environment And Technology To Institutions And Stakeholders, Vasant P. Gandhi

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The dry rainfed areas pose a serious challenge in India due to the environment of scarcity, fragility and adversity of natural resources in these areas, and the high incidence of poverty. The government has undertaken huge programs called watershed development programs in such areas to promote scientific and judicious use of the resources to improve sustainability, incomes, livelihoods. National and international contributions commit about $500 million annually for such programs. However, effective institutional arrangements are lacking and are required to combine scientific approaches with community participation and ownership, especially given the small farm sizes and high populations. This research supported …

Identification Of Spatial And Temporal Patterns Of Australian Daily Rainfall Under A Changing Climate, Tingbao Xu, Barry Croke, Michael F. Hutchinson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Rainfall is a highly variable component of the climate system. There are substantial spatial and temporal variations in the frequency and spatial distribution of rainfall events. Little attention has been paid to the slow but ongoing variations of the spatial patterns of daily rainfall, especially over broad spatial scales. A better understanding of these variations and their long term trends would reduce uncertainty in environmental and natural resource models and improve assessment of ongoing climate change. This study examined the spatial cross-correlations of daily rainfall at 2322 high quality long run rainfall stations across Australia from 1910 to 2011, and …

Complexity Regularized Hydrological Model Selection, Saket Pande, Liselot Arkesteijn, Luis A. Bastidas

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper uses a recently proposed measure of hydrological model complexity in a model selection exercise. It demonstrates that a robust hydrological model is selected by penalizing model complexity while maximizing a model performance measure. This especially holds when limited data is available. here by a robust model, we mean a model that predicts a variable of interest conditioned on future input forcing better than a model that is fitted on limited data. We demonstrate this on a rainfall-runoff model structure, SAC-SMA, using MOPEX data set of Guadalupe river basin.

Intelligent Workflow Systems And Provenance-Aware Software, Yolanda Gil

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Workflows are increasingly used in science to manage complex computations and data processing at large scale. Intelligent workflow systems provide assistance in setting up parameters and data, validating workflows created by users, and automating the generation of workflows from high-level user guidance. These systems use semantic workflows that extend workflow representations with semantic constraints that express characteristics of the data and analytic models. Reasoning algorithms propagate these semantic constraints throughout the workflow structure, select executable components for underspecified steps, and suggest parameter values. Semantic workflows also enhance provenance records with abstract steps that reflect the overall data analysis method rather …

Automating Data Management And Sharing Within A Large-Scale, Heterogeneous Sensor Network, Jeffery S. Horsburgh, Amber Spackman Jones, Stephanie Reeder

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Hydrology researchers are collecting data using in situ sensors at high frequencies, for extended durations, and with spatial distributions that require infrastructure for data storage, management, and sharing. Managing streaming sensor data is challenging, especially in large networks with large numbers of sites and sensors. The availability and utility of these data in addressing scientific questions related to water availability, water quality, and natural disasters relies on effective cyberinfrastructure that facilitates transformation of raw sensor data into usable data product. It also depends on the ability of researchers to share and access the data in usable formats. In this paper …

Integrating Neon Data With Existing Models: An Example With The Community Land Model, Edmund M. Hart, Andrew Fox, Steve Berukoff, T. J. Hoar

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A central challenge to environmental forecasting in hydrological and land surface modeling is how to integrate multiple data sources over a wide range of spatial scales. Furthermore how can this complex task be achieved in the most productive and reproducible way with a robust informatics architecture? At the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) we are collecting a variety of biophysical and biogeochemical measurements which can be used with models to perform temporal forecasting on decadal timescales. To take advantage of this data we are developing a data assimilation framework. Using this framework NEON data can be combined with the Community …

Geospatial Workflow Process For Modelling Complex Land Use Cover Change, Isaac Kwadwo Nti, Philip Sallis

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The challenge of modelling the ever changing land use cover (LUC) of the earth has resulted in the creation of diverse models to depict these variations. Most of the land use cover change (LUCC) models were developed for either specific projects or locations; therefore, they are not generic. Also, most of the current LUCC models have been applied to only one LUC class which is less complex, e.g. urban growth or at most two LUC classes.

This work investigated existing LUCC models with the aim of finding a generic geospatial workflow process approach for modelling complex LUCC so that the …

Simulating The Sensitivity Of Residential Wildfire Risk To Land Use Policy, Tony Prato, Travis Paveglio, Micheal Hardy

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

An integrated model is used to simulate the sensitivity of expected residential losses from wildfire [E(RLW)]) and growth of the wildland urban interface (WUI) to three land use policies in Flathead County, Montana, during the period 2010–2059. The model accounts for the complex socio-ecological interactions among climate change, economic growth and associated residential development, land use policy, homeowners’ wildfire loss mitigation actions, and forest treatments by various land management agencies. E(RLW) depends on the number of developed residential properties, the total value of residential properties, the probability that parcels containing residential properties burn, the conditional probability of residential wildfire losses, …

Sea Level Rise Effects On Acidic Pollution In A Coastal Acid Sulphate Soil Area, Ngo Dang Phong, Chu Thai Hoanh, To Phuc Tuong, Reiner Wassmann

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Bac Lieu is a coastal province in the Mekong River Delta (MRD), Vietnam. Aside from salinity intrusion from the sea, the province is strongly affected by acidic pollution as 58% of the area (250,000 ha) is overlaid with acid sulphate soil (ASS). Previous studies showed that the eminent sea level rise (SLR) would influence the hydrology and salinity of the canal networks in the province. This study, using the previously validated hydraulic and water quality model CRSAP-ACIDITY (Vietnam River Systems And Plains, coupled with ACIDITY Module), aimed at quantifying impacts of different SLR scenarios (SLR=17, 30, 50, or 75 cm) …

Open Source Map Based Software For Photovoltaic System Layout Design, Daniel P. Ames, Kasem Pinthong, Michael Scott, Rohit Khattar, David Solan, Randy Lee

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper presents a new free and open source GIS-based software package, PVDesktop, for designing large or small photovoltaic (PV) energy production systems with the goal of increasing use of alternative energy. PVDesktop considers numerous factors to better reflect the characteristics of landscape specific to the area including site location, time zone, sun path, nearby weather station data, tilt and azimuth angle of the solar panels, and nearby objects such as trees and buildings that may obstruct or shadow solar radiation over the panels. PVDesktop enables the design of a solar panel layout, assesses the solar shade that could reduce …

Residential Mobility And Model Complexity - An Agent-Based Modelling Experiment On A Small Shrinking Town In Eastern Germany, Carsten M. Buchmann, Nina Schwarz

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Residential mobility is one of the major drivers of urban land use change. For urban planning it is therefore essential to understand patterns of population distribution and residential mobility in cities. Agent-based modelling has been found to be the most suitable method to investigate the complex interplay of processes, including individual location decisions. While numerous of such models have been developed in recent years, the challenge of adequate model complexity is still a hot topic. In this talk we present an agent-based model on residential mobility in the shrinking town Delitzsch in eastern Germany. The model is parameterized by a …

Ocean Acidification And Fisheries - A Bayesian Network Approach To Assessing A Wicked Problem, Russell Richards, Jan-Olaf Meynecke, Oz Sahin, Rachel Tiller, Yaije Liu

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Increased carbon dioxide emissions are driving changes in the chemistry of seawater in a process termed 'ocean acidification' (OA). Globally, this is predicted to impact on coastal fisheries, especially those consisting of calcifying organisms (e.g. mollusks and crustaceans). The impact might also depend on synergistic co-stressors such as a concomitant increase in seawater temperature and the resilience of other biota. However, the framing of OA as a future problem coupled with the complexity of coastal systems means that assessing fisheries vulnerability to OA is characterised by strong variability and uncertainty. It is further characterised by strong socio-economic dimensions given the …

Uncovering Urban System Interrelations Using Land-Use Scenario Modelling, Steffen Lauf, Birgit Kleinschmit, Dagmar Haase

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

For the conservation as well as the improvement in life quality of human beings, today’s political decision makers are challenged to tackle the complex interactions between human activities and the natural environment. In order to better understanding these interactions, we applied a well- validated land-use change model that integrates demographic and residential dynamics, including a preference-driven choice algorithm to enable the simulation of simultaneously occurring growth and shrinkage processes. We introduce 13 scenarios that combine different assumptions based on demographic and economic development, residential preferences, short-range transit accessibility preferences and planning restrictions. They are applied to test the respective effects …

Physically Based Landslide Susceptibility Models With Different Degree Of Complexity: Calibration And Verification, Giuseppe Formetta, Giovanna Capparelli, Riccardo Rigon, Pasquale Versace

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Rainfall induced shallow landslides cause significant damages involving loss of life and properties. Predicting shallow landslide susceptible locations is a complex task that involves many disciplines: hydrology, geotechnical science, geomorphology, statistics. Usually to accomplish this task two main approaches are used: a statistical model or a physically based model.

In this paper, three physically based models for landslide susceptibility analysis were integrated in the Object Modelling System (OMS) and tested in real world applications. Models presented have an increasing degree of complexity. Effects of three different hydrological components connected to the stability model and of model parameters optimization were investigated. …

Modeling Of Urban Planning Actions By Complex Transactions On Semantic 3d City Models, Maximilian Sindram, Thomas H. Kolbe

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Decision support for environmental planning requires the impact analysis of envisaged actions. These actions often are adapted from measures specified in regulations or other legal doc­uments given in natural language. Their realization involves (possibly complex) changes to specific parts of the environment. For example, the energetic retrofitting of a building typically comprises the insulation of the faҫade and replacement of the windows. In general, different actions or combinations of actions can be chosen for the optimization of certain key performance indicators (KPI) like the over­ all energy demand or C0₂ emission of a city district. This requires the assessment …

Using Genetic Algorithms To Fit Species And Habitat Parameters For Modelling The Effect Of Climate Change On Species Distributions With Stochastic Patch Occupancy Models, Gary Polhill, Alessandro Gimona

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Standard approaches to modelling the effect of climate change on species distributions model a direct link between climatic and other biophysical variables and species occupancy. Though these provide a reasonable estimate for the effects of climate change on species distributions in the future, there are a number of issues with these approaches that fail to account for dynamic landscape interactions. For example, the mass occupancy effect means that species may be observed in unsuitable habitat patches surrounding a well-populated area of highly suitable patches. Conversely, a highly suitable area may be too disconnected from other suitable patches to allow long-term …

Modeling Of Co2 Solubility In Salty Aqueous Solutions At Geological Sequestration Conditions, Lu Wang, Qingchun Yu, Lu Xia, Yinhe Zheng

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Injecting CO₂ into deep saline aquifers possesses the highest potential capacity for geological carbon storage (GCS) in order to mitigate climate change. CO₂ solubility in salty aqueous solutions plays a key role in GCS. However, the models of CO₂ solubility are scanty when the mixture of K⁺, Na⁺, Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ in aqueous solution is included. In this study, a simple model for CO₂ solubility is proposed covering conditions typically encountered in geological sequestration. Effect of the property and concentration of K⁺, Na⁺, Ca²⁺ and …

Linking Bayesian Belief Networks And Gis To Assess The Ecosystem Integrity In The Brazilian Amazon, Peter Verweij, Margareth Simoes, Andrei Alves, Rodrigo Ferraz, Anouk Cormont

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Deforestation and climate change heavily impact the ecosystem of the Amazon rainforest threatening its resilience and the sustainability of many human activities. Land protection may prevent ecosystems and their services to deteriorate from the pressures of agricultural expansion, population growth and wood harvesting. In the Brazilian Amazon land protection occurs in several forms such as environmental conservation, setting biodiversity priority areas and the delineation of indigenous lands. Still, the effects are not clear as understanding of the ecosystems is incomplete and responses to human actions are highly uncertain. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) are models that probabilistically represent correlative and causal …

Object-Based Analysis Of Multispectral Rs Data And Gis For Detection Of Climate Change Impact On The Karakoram Range Northern Pakistan, Waquar Ui Hassan Chaudhary, Åke Sivertun

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Changing climate has a great impact on northern area of Pakistan's environment and is more prone to environmental change impacts than the rest of the country due to its high elevation. However, the results of melting glaciers effect not only the local environment but also the whole country with frequent and heavy floods. Although recent technological development provided solutions of many problems to mankind, the pace of development in the field of environmental preservation technologies are much slower than needed.

Remote sensing (RS) from Satellites and Airplanes used in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are technologies that can aid in understanding …

Modelling Spatial Relationships Between Ecosystem Services And Agricultural Production In An Agent- Based Model, Changxing Dong, Mark Brady, Yann Clough, Ullrika Sahlin, Christoph Sahrbacher, Martin Stjernman

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The collective impacts of farmers’ land management decisions on above ground ecosystem services (ES) and their implications for agriculture are poorly understood. Managing habitat to provide ES is costly but at the same time it can support higher yields through, e.g., pollination or natural pest control. Due to the mobility of ES-providers (bees, natural enemies) farmers providing habitat might also benefit their neighbours, creating interdependencies among their decisions. Interdependencies among farmers’ land-use decisions and the flow of ES in space can be considered by integrating agent-based modelling and evidence-based ES models. Such integration requires a trade-off between the land-use details …

Web Applications That Share Level-12 Huc Data And Models Of The Conus, Lorne Leonard, Christopher J. Duffy

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

HydroTerre web applications and services provide the Essential Terrestrial Variable (ETV) datasets to create common hydrological models anywhere in the continental United States (CONUS). This service allows web users to download data for their own purposes in their own computing environment. The datasets are provided using standard Geographic Information System formats and the data transformation is dependent on the users own needs, goals, and computing environment. In this article, we demonstrate three web applications and web services that share data and models with users via web interfaces, which automate the data-transformations for United States Geological Survey level-12 Hydrological Unit Codes …

Supporting Environmental Modelling With Taverna Workflows, Web Services And Desktop Grid Technology, Ferenc Horváth, Péter Ittzés, Dóra Ittzés, Zoltán Barcza, Laura Dobor, Dóra Hidy, Attila Marosi, Alex Hardisty

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Ecosystem functioning, climate change, and multiple interactions among biogeochemical cycles, climate system, site conditions and land use options are leading-edge topics in recent environmental modelling. Terrestrial ecosystem models are widely used to support carbon sequestration and ecosystem studies under various ecological circumstances. Our team uses the Biome-BGC model (Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, University of Montana), and develops an improved model version of it, called Biome-BGC MuSo. Both the original and the improved model estimate the ecosystem scale storage and fluxes of energy, carbon, nitrogen and water, controlled by various physical and biological processes on a daily time-scale. Web services were …

A Simple And Effective Approach To Global Sensitivity Analysis Based On Conditional Output Distributions, Francesca Pianosi, Thorsten Wagener

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Predictions of environmental models are affected by unavoidable and potentially large uncertainty. When models are applied to understand dominant controls of the system under study, uncertainties will reduce our ability to choose between competing hypotheses. When they are used to support decision-making, uncertainties will reduce our ability to discriminate between different management options and undermine the defensibility of the decision-making process. Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) provides quantitative information about the contribution to the uncertainty in the model output arising from different input factors like, for instance, model parameters, boundary conditions or forcing data. GSA thus provides insights into the model …

Are The Driving Forces Of Hydrological Models Really Driving The Model Output?, Jiri Nossent, Willy Bauwens, Fernando Pereira, Toon Verwaest, Frank Mostaert

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Rainfall is very often considered as the driving force of hydrological models. If the rainfall changes, the model output (i.e. flow) is also expected to change. In principal, as long as the values of the model parameters are fixed, rainfall will indeed determine the model output. Yet, uncertainties on the input, the model(parameters) and the output lead to variations of the actual values and can disrupt this rigid hypothesis. Hence, the question could be raised if it would be possible to maintain exactly the same initial model output when the model input changes, by varying the model parameter values? Or, …

Activated Sludge With Total Solids Retention: Modified-Asm1 Modelling And Simulation, Cheikh Fall, Anabel Jimenez-Zarate, Ericka Millan-Lagunas, Yves Comeau

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

There are many new strategies put forward for minimizing excess sludge generation in biological wastewater treatment. Some of them were developed within the context of dynamic activated sludge modelling (ASM). A number of means can be used to eliminate the traditional waste activated sludge flow and the build-up of inert solids in the aeration tanks. This includes the use of fine screens to remove the inert particulate organic fraction (X_I), hydrocyclones to lower the inorganic suspended solids (ISS), and different kinds of on-line digesters to further biodegrade the endogenous residues (X_P), via the return activated sludge …