Computer Engineering Commons^™

Integrated Modelling Of Social-Ecological Systems: The Maelia High-Resolution Multi-Agent Platform To Deal With Water Scarcity Problems, Olivier Therond, Christophe Sibertin-Blanc, Romain Lardy, Benoit Gaudou, Maud Balestrat, Yi Hong, Thomas Louail, Van Bai Nguyen, David Panzoli, José-Miguel Sanchez-Perez, Sabine Sauvage, Patrick Taillandier, Maroussia Vavasseur, Pierre Mazzega

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Sustainable water resource management is typical of environmental management problems emerging from complex social-ecological systems. It deeply depends upon water user strategies, land use management and water governance systems. MAELIA, a "policy issue" modelling platform, allows performing integrated assessment at watershed level of a wide range of scenarios regarding water and land use management strategies in combination with global changes. It has been developed through a strong analysis of different French water management situations and an inductive modelling process. It allows representing dynamic interactions between human activities (farming practices), ecological processes (hydrology and crop growth), and governance systems (water regulations …

Qualitative Reasoning Models To Summarize And Compare Metapopulation Theories, Isabella Gontijo Sá-Leão, Adriano Souza, Fernando Goulart, Paulo Salles

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A better understanding of population dynamics is needed in the face of accelerating changes and modifications of natural landscapes. Qualitative Reasoning based models have been considered as a tool for integration and exploration of conceptual knowledge in ecological systems and population dynamics. The objective of the present work is to develop a set of qualitative models in order to capture, formalize, summarize, and compare knowledge about different approaches to metapopulation theory. Three types of approaches were modelled: 1) the classical concepts developed by Levins; 2) Pulliam's view on source and sink populations; and 3) an integrated model of conservation, based …

Linking Governance Storylines With The D-Expanse Model To Explore The Power System Transition Pathways, Evelina Trutnevyte

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In 2008 United Kingdom adopted an ambitious target to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, compared to the levels of 1990. This is an unprecedented challenge to the power sector and multiple energy-environment-economic modeling activities have been undertaken to inform the energy policy to deliver this low-carbon transition. The role of governance, choices and strategies of the key actors is increasingly acknowledged as an influential determinant of such transition, but traditional energy-environment-economic models can hardly analyze these aspects. This paper proposes a methodological approach to integrating the governance aspects into energy-environment-economic modeling. In the Realizing Transition Pathways …

Assessment Of Policies For Low-Carbon Agriculture By Means Of Multi-Agent Simulation, Eygeny Latynskiy, Thomas Berger, Christian Troost

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Agriculture and agriculture-inflicted land use change is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reducing excessive deforestation and intensification of agricultural land use and consequently reducing associated GHG emissions is an important pathway of transition to a global low-carbon economy. Adoption of low-carbon agricultural systems and practices requires setting appropriate economic incentives for land users through smart policy instruments. For effective implementation of such instruments integrated ex-ante policy assessments are crucial. In this article we discuss and illustrate the benefits and potentials of applying multi-agent system models for the assessment of low-carbon policies and technologies. As an empirical example …

Empirical Agent-Based Modelling Of Everyday Pro­Environmental Behaviours At Work, Gary Polhill, Tony Craig, Amparo Alonso-Betanzos, Noelia Sanchez-Maroño, Óscar Fontenla-Romero, Adina Dumitru, Mirilia Bonnes, Marini Bonaiuto, Giuseppe Carrus, Ferdinando Fornara, Fridanna Maricchiolo, Linda Steg, Angela Ruepert, Kees Kaizer, Ricardo García-Mira

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

We report on agent-based modelling work in the LOCAW project (Low Carbon at Work: Modelling Agents and Organisations to Achieve Transition to a Low Carbon Europe). The project explored the effectiveness of various backcasting scenarios conducted with case study organisations in bringing about pro-environmental change in the workforce in the domains of transport, energy use and waste. The model used qualitative representations of workspaces in formalising each scenario, and decision trees learned from questionnaire responses to represent decision-making. We describe the process by which the decision trees were constructed, noting that the use of decision trees in agent-based models requires …

Understanding Regime Shift In Land Systems With System Dynamics, Zhanli Sun, Daniel Müller

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Land system change has major consequences for climate change, biodiversity and ecosystem services, and is central to the debate of sustainable development. Land policies aimed at guiding land system towards sustainable pathways need to be informed by better understanding of land system change, and often rely on the forecasting of future land system change. For example, initiatives of Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) provide financial incentives to developing countries in tropical regions in exchange for a reduction of carbon emission from land system compared to business-as-usual. REDD+ schemes therefore rely on predictions of future land use without …

Innovative Techniques For Quantitative Scenarios In Energy And Environmental Research: A Review, Evelina Trutnevyte, Célene Guivarch

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Quantitative scenarios form the core of the future analysis in the energy, climate and other environment-related fields. A growing number of researchers worldwide start using innovative techniques for developing, analysing and choosing quantitative scenarios. Some of these techniques involve a large number of scenarios. Different rationales motivate these strands of research: better system understanding, uncertainty analysis, development of robust strategies, selection of a small set of scenarios, ability to link storylines with quantitative scenarios and other. These techniques are argued to provide both novel research insights and policy-relevant scenario exercises. A workshop, organised by UCL Energy Institute and Cired, on …

User Centered Design: Tools For Encouraging Climate Change Adaptation, Peter Verweij, Natascha Marinova, Rob Lokers

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Climate change and it’s societal response in the form of mitigation and adaptation strategies have potentially very large impacts in different sectors, especially on regions with a high vulnerability. Climate change will greatly affect agricultural and natural ecosystems and urban centers. The scale and complexity of the interactions represent a challenge for policy makers, researchers and the public at large. It is the role of the policy maker at different levels of government to facilitate and encourage adaptation and to achieve the level of transparency needed to obtain the public support for taking far-reaching measures. The European Climate Adaptation Platform …

Modelling The Impact Of Microbial Loop On Aquatic Food Webs, Yu Li, Liancong Luo, Vardit Makler-Pick, Emily K. Read, Matthew R. Hipsey

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In order to control algal blooms, it is necessary to better understand microbial interactions in aquatic ecosystems. Based on the traditional "Nutrients-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus" (NPZD) model, the "Nutrients-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus+Bacteria" (NPZD+B) model has been developed to investigate the impact of the microbial loop on aquatic food webs via nutrient cycling processes. The results of the NPZD+B model showed the positive impact of the microbial loop on phytoplankton growth, and illustrated the importance of "bottom-up" (resource) control of algal blooms in aquatic ecosstems. The study concludes that the microbial loop is an important model component for simulating water quality dynamics when nutrients are limited in …

Parallel Simulation Of Environmental Phenomena, Ralf Denzer, Peter Fitch, Ioannis N. Athanasiadis, Daniel P. Ames

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper discusses the current situation with respect to the parallel simulation of environmental phenomena. It is not based on a complete and thorough investigation of the state-of- the-art in this domain and is more driven by observations, experiences and ideas of the four contributors who see the need to raise awareness towards a more systematic approach in the future. It is meant as a discussion paper to stimulate a more systematic approach towards parallel simulation in the environmental domain. While examples are mostly taken from hydrology, they are only used as illustration of a generic situation. The section on …

State And Trends In Mobile Observation Applications, Denis Havlik, Gerald Schimak

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The stellar growth of the smartphones and nearly gapless mobile network coverage in urban and suburban areas has widely extended the potential of the citizens' observatories. The possibility to easily record observations made by mobile citizens, and to automatically enrich this information using the built-in and external sensors sounds like a dream come true of the scientists and decision makers alike. However, in 2013 only a tiny portion of the potential users really participated in the citizen observation programs and the usability of the received information is often below expectations. The learning curve is often too high, sensor quality too …

Fronting Integrated Scientific Web Applications: Design Features And Benefits For Regulatory Environments, Jonathan Flaishans, Tao Hong, Marcia Snyder, Chancellor Pascale, Thomas S. Purucker

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Integrated decision support systems for regulatory applications benefit from standard industry practices such as code reuse, test-driven development, and modularization. These approaches make meeting the federal government's goals of transparency, efficiency, and quality assurance more attainable, while facilitating science module updates and incorporation of new modules. The Obertool is a web-based dashboard suite of ecological risk assessment models supported by the United States Environmental Protection Agency that provides a cross-platform implementation for users. Its web-based approach provides users with a common interface to models developed in differing formats ranging from simple spreadsheet calculators to platform-dependent compiled executables. The dashboard combines …

Enhancing User Customization Through Novel Software Architecture For Utility-Scale Solar Siting Software, Brant Peery, R. Sam Alessi, Randy D. Lee, Leng Vang, Scott Brown, David Solan, Dan Ames

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The need exists for a spatial decision support application that allows users to create customized metrics for comparing proposed locations of a new solar installation. This document discusses how PVMapper was designed to overcome the customization problem through development of loosely coupled spatial and decision components in a JavaScript plug-in architecture, allowing the user to easily add functionality and data to the system. The paper also explains how PVMapper provides the user with a dynamic and customizable decision tool that enables them to visually modify the formulas that are used in the decision algorithms that convert data to comparable metrics. …

Cyberinfrastructure For Scalable Access To Stream Flow Analysis, Tyler Wible, Wes Lloyd, Olaf David, Mazdak Arabi

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Traditionally the various components of flow analysis including flooding, drought, base-flow, pollutant loading, and duration curves have been examined independently by various analysis methods or software packages. A better approach would be to combine these multiple packages into a single web-tool to improve access. Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) cloud provides a scalable infrastructure for model implementation, which is a necessity of web services due to the characteristics of web traffic. IaaS centralizes the computational burden and overhead of multiple model runs from local computers to online servers. This paper demonstrates the scalability benefits of the Comprehensive Flow Analysis (CFA) tool in an …

Using Geostatistical Tools For Mapping Traffic-Related Air Pollution In Urban Areas, Lubos Matejicek

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Air pollution sources caused by increasing road traffic reduce air quality and affect people in urban areas. In order to improve living conditions in urban areas, predictions of effects on air pollution are needed for assessing exposures as part of epidemiological studies, and to inform urban air-quality policy and traffic management. A prediction system for estimation, analysis and visualization has been developed to model spatial patterns of traffic-related air pollution. In this study, several geostatistical techniques are used for prediction of NO₂ and PM₁₀. The primary data for geostatistical methods originate from sample points that are generated …

Software Engineering For Scientific Application: Effort Report On The Community Land Model Within The Earth System Modeling Framework, Dali Wang, Yang Xu

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

One key factor in the improved understanding of earth system science is the development and improvement of high fidelity models. Along with the deeper understanding of earth system processes, the software complexity of those modelling systems becomes a barrier for further rapid model improvements and validation. In this paper, we present our experience on better understanding of the community land model (CLM) within an earth system modeling framework. After the science and software background of CLM, we represent three groups of CLM software engineering practices, which aim to 1) better understand the software system for rapid software system development on …

Characterizing Spatial Random Fields Through A Bayesian Inverse Modeling Framework And The High Throughput Computing Software - Htcondor, Carlos Osorio-Murillo, Daniel P. Ames, Heather Frystacky, Yoram Rubin

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Spatial Random Fields (SRFs) are used to characterize the behavior of variables which are difficult to measure everywhere. In the case of hydraulic conductivity used in groundwater models, heterogeneity can be modeled through structural parameters of the random fields – parameters that define the field’s spatial distribution. Characterization of these structural parameters using a stochastic inverse method requires the evaluation of thousands of potential realizations of the SRF which is a time consuming and challenging task – reducing the adoption of stochastic models. To address this issue, this paper presents the integration of high throughput computing using HTCondor with the …

Use Of Low-Cost Particle Monitors To Calibrate Traffic­-Related Air Pollutant Models In Urban Areas, Edmund Seto, Elena Austin, Igor Novosselov, Micheal Yost

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The availability of new small and low-cost particulate matter monitors has enabled the collection of large quantities of data to calibrate traffic-related air pollution models in urban areas. We present laboratory findings on the performance of our Portable University of Washington Particle (PUWP) monitor compared to a reference instrument, and its application to air quality modeling for epidemiologic studies. The instrument has been calibrated in laboratory chamber studies as well as in field collocation studies against reference instruments. We are currently examining the use of the PUWP to calibrate air pollution. In our laboratory studies, four PUWP monitors were placed …

Balancing Externalities And Industrial Costs In Air Quality Planning, Claudio Carnevale, Giorgio Guariso, Enrico Pisoni, Marialuisa Volta

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

When adopting regional plans aimed at improving air quality, environmental authorities are often faced with the relevant costs that the adoption of abatement measures implies. On the other hand, scientific literature has well documented damages due to air pollution impact on human health and ecosystems. This paper proposes a tool that allows balancing these two viewpoints by defining the efficient set of measures in a multi-objective perspective. Despite both external (health related) and internal (industrial/emission abatement related) costs can be measured in the same unit, namely money, it appears unacceptable to add them together as in a cost-benefit analysis, since …

Varying The Temporal Resolution Of River Nutrient Boundary Conditions To A Coupled Hydrodynamic-Biogeochemical Model Of A Coastal System Has Surprisingly Little Impact On Model Results, Barbara J. Robson, Jenny Skerratt, Mathieu Mongin, Karen Wild-Allen, Mark Baird

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Differences in the temporal resolution of catchment models and receiving water models often represent a problem for coupling of these models. Many catchment models are optimised for prediction of event-mean, monthly, or average annual sediment and nutrient loads, while coupled biogeochemical-hydrodynamic models typically run on time-steps measured in seconds, and often aim to predict patterns on a day-to-day or even sub-daily time-scale. Though previous work has shown that low temporal resolution of river boundary conditions set from in situ measurements can compromise the accuracy of a receiving water model, this is in large part because total river loads derived from …

An R Package For Implementing Multiple Evapotranspiration Formulations, Danlu Guo, Seth Westra, Holger R. Maier

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The use of multiple evapotranspiration (ET) models is critical for exploring the ambiguity in the representations of ET processes. Although ensemble ET models are increasingly used to address this ambiguity, practical issues include: 1) the diversity of process representations, which require different input data and constants; 2) the diversity of nomenclature, terminology and units used in the literature; and 3) the complexity of some formulations, requiring significant time for coding and leading to potential user errors. We describe an R package that estimates both actual and potential ET from 17 well-known formulations. Results are presented as summary text and plots, …

Long-Term Numerical Simulation For Stability Within The River Mouth; Case Study: Rosetta Promontory, Egypt, Ali Masria, Abdelazim Negm, Moheb Iskander, Oliver C. Saavedra, M. A. Bek

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Estuaries are very sensitive and vulnerable to any interventions in coastal dynamics. Most of these inlets experience coastal problems such as severe erosion and accretion. Rosetta promontory, Egypt, is an example of such an environment. It suffers from coastline erosion and sedimentation inside the inlet. The shoaling of the inlet leads to hindering the navigation process of fishing boats, negative impacts to estuarine and salt marsh habitat and decreases the efficiency of the cross section to transferring the flood flow to the sea.

This paper aims to reach a new condition of stability of Rosetta Promontory by using coastal measures. …

Estimation Of Pahs Concentration Fields In An Urban Area By Means Of Support Vector Machines, Armando Pelliccioni, Andrea Cristofari, Camillo Silibello, Monica Gherardi, Angelo Cecinato, Mafalda Lamberti

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Epidemiological studies about health effects of air quality are often based on data inferred by monitoring stations, and the issue of constructing pollutants exposure maps is crucial for improving such studies. The study about Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) exposure in urban areas is the aim of the EXPAH LIFE+ Project, so an integrated approach, based on measurements and modeling techniques, has been applied to simulate PAHs concentration in the urban area of Rome in one year period (June 2011 - May 2012). Support Vector Machines (SVMs) have been applied to forecast PAHs concentrations starting from actual measurements. After a feature …

Using Locally Distributed Computing To Aid Water Quality Modelling, Saurav Kumar, Adil N. Godrej, Thomas J. Grizzard

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Watershed managers and other experts frequently use water quality models to manage and study watershed-waterbody systems. Many modern water quality models have become increasingly complex and require significant amount of computational resources to execute. This situation is further exacerbated by linked models, which require sequential execution of multiple models to simulate the entire system, along with data conversion to transfer data between the linked models. Many tasks, such as evaluations of the robustness of the modelling system through sensitivity analysis and applications of water quality models as a tool to aid decision-making, require multiple executions of water quality models and …

Should Hydro-Economic Models Be Agent-Based? Should They Include Non-Economic Behaviors And Metrics?, Julien J. Harou

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Hydro-economic analysis represents the standard hydrological and engineering realities of water resource system along-side economic drivers and impacts. Often optimization is used to simulate profit-maximizing behavior which is assumed to drive most water use decisions. Recently, different modeling trends have bumped against traditional hydro-economic modeling and challenging it in new directions. One is agent-based modeling, understood as a field of analysis where the behavioral rules of individuals help understand/predict how the whole system functions. This challenges hydro-economic models to include non-economic driven rules or behaviors in addition to economic optimization. Multi-criteria optimization also challenges social-economic models to assess other performance …

Rethinking Riverine Habitat Quality: Integrated Systems Modeling To Improve Watershed Habitat Management And Decision Making, Avman H. Alafifi, David E. Rosenberg

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

River restoration and conservation projects use habitat quality indicators (e.g., Habitat Suitability Index) to monitor and quantify changes of one or a few habitat attributes (e.g. instream flow, bank stability, and flood regime). A more integrated approach representing broader watershed habitat components requires rethinking riverine habitat quality. Systems models provide decision makers with tools to quantify and understand interconnections between different habitat components. They help predict and account for potential changes in hydrologic, ecological, and management variables in water systems. Applying systems models in restoration practice requires developing and applying new and robust habitat quality indicators that capture dynamic hydrologic …

Evaluation Of Urbanization And Impacts On Water Quality In Nottawasaga Bay Using An Integrated 3-D Modeling Framework, Venkat S. Kolluru, Shwet Prakash, Doug Hodgins

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority (LSRCA) in partnership with the Nottawasaga Valley Conservation Authority (NVCA) has been interested in addressing the cumulative impacts of land use changes due to urbanization to two water bodies, the Nottawasaga River and Nottawasaga Bay. In order to assess these impacts, an Assimilative Capacity Studies (ACS) was planned for decision-making on land use. The ACS involved application of a comprehensive 3-D hydrodynamic and transport model called GEMSS®. The model was calibrated both for hydrodynamics (currents and drogue trajectories) and baseline water quality measurements. The model was then applied to simulate conditions which are representative …

Statistical Evaluation Of Intra-Event Variability Of Fecal Indicator In Stormwater Runoff From Different Land Uses, Ma. Cristina A. Paule, Sheeraz Memon, Bum-Yeon Lee, Umer S. Raja, Chinzorig Sukhbaatar, Jey-R S. Ventura, Deokjin Jahng, Joo-Hyon Kang, Chang-Hee Lee

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Stormwater runoff is one of the major transporters of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) contaminant in the downstream areas. The development of models to predict FIB concentrations in stormwater runoff are important because it is impractical to monitor and analyze every different microorganism at all monitoring sites. Understanding the correlation of hydrological characteristics such as antecedent dry days (ADD), total rainfall (RAIN), average rainfall intensity (AVGINT), runoff duration (RUNDUR) and runoff volume (RUNVOL), is important in development of such models. In this study, the samples were collected from three different monitoring sites which include agriculture (Site 1); mixed catchment (site 2) …

Development Of A Policy Tool Towards Particulate Pollution Abatement, Athena G. Progiou, Ioannis C. Ziomas, Nickolaos M. Panagiotou, Christos J. Boukouvalas

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Particulate matter concentrations are in most cities a major environmental problem. This is also the case in Greece where, despite the various measures taken in the past, the problem still persists. In this aspect, in the framework of the European Life Programme ACEPTAIR, a cost efficient, comprehensive policy tool was developed in order to help decision makers to take the most appropriate measures towards particulates pollution abatement. In the framework of the project, the tool was applied for the areas of three major Greek cities. The operational platform consists of two modules, a database and an algorithm for the calculation …

Simulation Of Groundwater Flow Based On Adaptive Mesh Refinement, Kourakos George, Harter Thomas

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The simulation of groundwater flow based on numerical methods requires sufficient discretization in areas of the domain where large changes of the hydraulic head gradient are expected. Mesh generation is the first step of numerical modeling, whereby the domain is discretized into a mesh of elements. The density of the mesh is defined prior to the simulation based primarily on user experience. In addition, a priori mesh generation for non-linear unconfined flow problems becomes very inefficient as there is no information regarding the water table. To alleviate the subjective and experimental mesh generation procedure in non-linear problems we propose a …