Computer Engineering Commons^™

Sustainable Collective Pest Management Using A Graph-Based Markov Decision Processes Framework, Jean-Noël Aubertot, Marie-Josée Cros, Nathalie Peyrard, Régis Sabbadin

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

For environmental, ecological and human health sustainability, there is a great need to limit the structural dependency of agriculture on pesticides while, at the same time, maintaining satisfactory levels of production and farmers’ gross margins. A model was developed to explore the consequences of various management policies to contain blackleg on canola, on a long term basis. This model relies on the Graph-based Markov Decision Processes (GMDP) framework, that allows representing and optimizing sequential decisions under uncertainty, taking into account interactions between fields (spore dispersal). The objective of the study is to help better enforce management practices such as cultivar …

Integrating Human Agency And Ecosystem Services: An Abm Perspective On Food, Stefano Balbi, Ferdinando Villa

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Food is a primary provisioning ecosystem service. The concept of ecosystem services only focuses on the flow of services from nature to humans and doesn’t consider human flows, which include both the flows from human to nature (i.e. the co-production of ecosystem services or environmental pressures caused by humans) and human to human flows (i.e. social flows). Neglecting human flows is a main issue for modelling food provision within the ecosystem services framework, especially so under a food security perspective, where food access greatly depend on economic entitlements and social networks. We use the example of food security to provide …

The European Information Platform For Chemical Monitoring (Ipchem) - How Can You Realize Interoperability?, Gerlinde Knetsch, Maria Ruether

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Monitoring programs in Germany offer a large variety of data. On the one hand, these data are generated over many years in selected sampling areas; on the other hand, studies of monitoring take place in the context of research projects or other investigations. These data are often available in web-based information systems. Two databases will be presented with their potential for the interoperability with a (technical) platform for data of the chemical monitoring. The European project "Information Platform for Chemical Monitoring (IPCheM)" promotes networking of various existing databases and information systems with the goal of advancing the environmental data exchange …

A Decision Support Tool (R-Swat-Ds) For Integrated Watershed Management, Angel Udías, Anna Malago, Marco Pastori, Olga Vigiak, Arnauld Reynaud, Francisco Javier Elorza, Faycal Bouraoui

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Best management practices (BMPs) can be used effectively to reduce nutrient and sediment loads generated from point sources or non-point sources to receiving water bodies. Methodologies for optimal, cost effective BMP selection and placement are needed to assist watershed management planners and stakeholders. We developed a modeling-optimization framework that can be used to find cost-effective solutions of BMP placement to attain nutrient load reduction targets. The framework integrates the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model, spatial representation of BMPs, an economic component, and multi-objective optimization routines in the R environment. The framework can be used to launch individual …

How Weather Uncertainty Impacts The Predicted Yield In An Agricultural Decision Support Tool?, Amélie Pinet, Romain Bourget, Pierre Moreau, Nathalie Saint-Geours, Julia Radoszycki, Philippe Stoop

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Crop models dynamically simulate nutrient and water cycles on a daily basis to predict crop growth and yield. They can be integrated into decsision support systems (DSS) dedicated to helping farmers improve their profitability and sustainability by pro-actively adapting their cultural practices (for example irrigation and fertilization). One key challenge is then the use of appropriate input data, and in particular of weather data: current weather data drive the simulation of the daily crop growth, seasonal forecasts are used to predict the yield at the end of the growing season, and both are elements on which farmers base their strategical …

An Integrated Interdisciplinary Modelling System Of Climate Change Impacts On Agriculture In Support Of Adaptation Planning: Mosaicc, Hideki Kanamaru, Mauro Evangelisti

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations developed a server-based integrated system of tools and models called MOSAICC to evaluate climate change impacts on the agriculture sectors (crops, water resources, forests, and economy). MOSAICC is designed to respond to the needs of developing countries which may benefit from institutional and individual capacity development in producing relevant information for national climate change adaptation planning. This innovative system design facilitates a participatory environment where researchers with different installations on the user's computer and makes maintenance and update of the system on the centralized server simple. MOSAICC is based on open-source technology …

A Centralized Management System For Raster Data, Felix Linde, Ralf Wieland, Karin Groth

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

We present a concept for a system to manage and distribute geo-referenced raster data from multiple possible sources on the institute level. The core concept is to centralize all import routines for data from different sources and formats, store the information in a common data format and distribute the needed information for research purposes upon request. By using hdf5 files, it can be assured that geo-spatial data is always kept in close connection with the corresponding meta-data. Furthermore this approach builds a technical basis for enhancing data fusion methods by allowing the use of common analysis routines, regardless of the …

What Is The Role Of Human Decisions In Restoring A Clear Lake?, Romina Martin, Maja Schlüter

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Human decisions affect and are affected by ecological systems in multiple ways. Natural resource modelling has commonly focused on the decisions of resource users or strategic planners. We argue that the dynamics of social-ecological systems (SES), however, emerge from multiple social-ecological interactions that are the result of decisions from different actors. As a first step towards incorporating this social complexity into models of SES, we developed a model that includes decisions by governance actors, ecosystem users and individuals that affect the state of an ecological system. We use the example of lake restoration, i.e. the ecological regime shift from a …

Methodological Abilities Of Integrated Models To Support Agricultural Landscape Resilience: Current Status And Research Perspectives, Quang Bao Le

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

It is important to increase the resilience of rural landscapes in the face of global changes. It is widely recognized that integrated modeling is often a methodological choice to study landscape resilience because the task is often beyond the ability of direct, empirical studies. However, so far there has not yet been a systemized, critical review on methodological abilities current modeling approaches can have for supporting management for agricultural landscape resilience. This review study (i) highlighted the methodological abilities of integrated system modeling ideally needed for agricultural landscape management for resilience, (ii) reviewed strengths and weakness of common integrated modeling …

Uncertainties In Estimating Design Droughts, Devanmini Halwatura, Alex M. Lechner, Neil Mcintyre, Sven Arnold

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Severity-duration–frequency (SDF) curves of periods of rainfall deficits are useful tools for drought analyses. However, accuracy of these curves are affected by uncertainties associated with a number of factors including: (i) the choice of drought index, (ii) the sampling error due to the limited length of observation data, (iii) the effects of aggregation of data with respect to drought timescales, (iv) the selection of marginal probability distribution functions of drought severity and duration, (v) and the type of copula used to approximate the dependency between severity and duration. In this paper we assess the impact of these uncertainties on estimates …

A Framework For Developing Simple Adaptive Indicator-Based Water Treatment Decision Support Systems, Mohamed A. Hamouda

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A number of indicator-based decision tools have been developed to help select optimal water or wastewater treatment technologies. Water treatment is an inherently dynamic process that is influenced by constantly changing external factors, such as: deteriorating source water quality, changing regulations, and uncertain economic situation. Thus, decision support systems developed to select among alternative water treatment technologies should be adaptive to such changes. However, many of the developed tools still follow the traditional route of assigning fixed values and weights for the used indicators. Moreover, existing attempts to make the decision logic more adaptive often comes at the expense of …

System Dynamics And Bayesian Network Models For Vulnerability And Adaptation Assessment Of A Coastal Water Supply And Demand System, Thuc D. Phan, Oz Sahin, James Cr. Smart

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A coastal water supply and demand system is a highly uncertain and dynamically complex system. The degree of high uncertainty can arise from future climate change, population growth, water consumption trends, land use changes and socio-economic development, resulting in limited availability of empirical data. The effects of temporal and spatial interactions among such driving factors further contribute to the high dynamic complexity of coastal freshwater management. To effectively manage a coastal freshwater system with high levels of uncertainty and complexity, a participatory integrated System dynamics (SD) and Bayesian networks (BNs) modelling framework was suggested to assess the vulnerability and adaptation …

The Role Of Social Institutions In The Resolution Of International Conflicts Over Shared Fishing Resources, Cezara Păstrăv, Frank Dignum

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

International conflicts over shared fishing resources may rise in numbers in the context of climate change, which has lead, and will continue to lead, to changes in behavior patterns and geographic distribution of fish and other marine resources of interest to the fishing industry. Under these circumstances, being able to quickly adapt to unexpected changes becomes a very desirable trait for the fishing industry. Unfortunately, the current conflict resolution processes are often difficult, time consuming and sometimes not maintained.

We are interested in whether more sustainable mechanisms, that act from the bottom up and are easier to enforce by the …

Blueprint Of A System Dynamics Model For Flanders, Jean-Luc De Kok, Peter Viaene, Stijn Vranckx, Karolien Vermeiren, Guy Engelen, Inge Mayeres, Leo De Nocker, Pieter Valkering, Wouter Wetzels, Marleen Van Steertegem, Bert De Vries

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The development of energy prices, immigration, and other exogenous factors which are beyond control of the authorities add to the uncertainties in long-term environmental planning. Prospective studies such as the Nature Outlook and Environment Outlook are carried out to assess the existing status of nature and the environment in Flanders, to support the mid- and long-term planning, and to ensure that the environmental targets set by the EU are met. The supporting analyses are based on modelling and data for a wide range of social-economic sectors and thematic domains, including demography, economics, energy, mobility, land-use change, environment, agriculture and food …

Development Of A Nutrient Load Apportionment Modelling Toolbox, Eva M. Mockler

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Where surface waters are impacted by excess nutrients, understanding the sources of those nutrients is key to the development of effective, targeted, mitigation measures. In Ireland, nutrient emissions remains the top suspected cause of surface waters not achieving the required Good Status, as defined by the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Hence, a toolbox has been developed to predict the sources of nutrients contributing to these emissions, and to assess future pressures and the likely effectiveness of targeted mitigation scenarios. This Source Load Apportionment Model (SLAM) supports catchment managers by providing scientifically robust evidence to back-up decision-making in relation to reducing …

Calibration Of Hydrological Model In Data Scarce Tropical Basin, T. Alemayehu, A. Griensven, Willy Bauwens, Hoshin Gupta

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This study presents an innovative method for calibrating hydrological models in data limited basins using historical mean annual flow duration curves (FDC) and spatially distributed remote sensing evapotranspiration (ET). FDCs retrieved from historical observations could provide crucial information about river flow regime and hence could be considered as an option, particularly when observations are not available and /or intermittent, during model calibration and validation. Additionally, remote sensing ET offers a consistent spatially distributed and temporally varying information for model parameterization. Therefore, in this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Mara Basin (Kenya/Tanzania) has been calibrated …

Modeling Winter Wheat Phenological Responses To Water Deficits In The Unified Plant Growth Model (Upgm) Component Of The Spatially Distributed Agroecosystem-Watershed (Ages-W) Model, Gregory S. Mcmaster, Debora A. Edmunds, Nathan P. Lighthart, James C. Ascough Ii, Timothy R. Green, Robert H. Erskine, Holm Kipka

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Accurately predicting phenology in crop simulation models is critical for correctly simulating crop production. While extensive work in modeling phenology has focused on the temperature response function (resulting in robust phenology models), limited work on quantifying the phenological responses to varying water deficits has been done, particularly for the various versions of the EPIC-based plant growth component used in many agroecosystem models (e.g., EPIC, SWAT, WEPS, WEPP, GPFARM). Further, these EPIC-based plant growth components simulate few if any developmental events. The primary impetus for developing the Unified Plant Growth Model (UPGM) was to incorporate the various FORTRAN versions of the …

Pepic – Understanding The Impacts Of Different Pet Methods On Simulating Global Crop-Water Relations Of Maize, Wenfeng Liu, Hong Yang

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Previous research investigating the impacts of different potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimation methods on crop modelling have mostly been conducted at the field level or regional scale. These investigations have focused on either yields or crop water use. A comprehensive assessment of impacts of different PET methods on crop-water relations has been absent on a global scale. Here, PEPIC, a grid-based EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model within a Python environment, was developed to enhance our understanding of such impacts on global crop-water relations of maize at a spatial resolution of 30 arc minutes. The estimated national yields match well with …

Understanding Landscape Dynamics As Support Of Decision-Making Processes Using Dinamica-Ego Software, Vicente Guadalupe, Eleneide Doff Sotta, Valdenira Ferreira Santos, Leonardo José Gonçalves Aguiar, Lucieta Martorano

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes, and specially deforestation, are an expression of the interaction of economic, political and social factors in relation to the natural resources which may have profound effects on the functioning of the ecosystems. LULC models generally incorporate the most relevant elements of a coupled human-environment system and are important aids in decision-making processes in land use planning and management for sustainable development. This study aimed at analysing the main driving forces of deforestation in the North-eastern Amazon, as well as the context-specific factors that determined particular forest cover dynamics from 1985 to 2008, in …

Using An Object And Pattern Oriented Approach To Hydrological Modelling Teaching And Research, R.W. Vervoort, J.H.A. Guillaume, T.F.A Bishop, D. Kundu, F.F. Van Ogtrop

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Introducing hydrological modelling in undergraduate teaching is challenging, and some of this is related to the decline in STEM knowledge in students. Enabling students to confidently work with a range of hydrological models remains difficult, particularly if the goal is to make students understand the modelling process and model structures. The limited literature points to a number of educational tools that have been developed, falling into three classes: magical box fully developed GUIs with little insight into model operation; highly theoretical command line linear reservoir and unit hydrograph tools; and model tools focusing on one single model structure. Given the …

Participatory Simulation Of Coastal Flooding: Building Social Learning On Prevention Measures With Decision-Makers, Nicolas Becu, Marion Amalric, Brice Anselme, Elise Beck, Xavier Bertin, Etienne Delay, Nathalie Long, Corinne Manson, Nicolas Marilleau, Cecilia Pignon-Mussaud, Frédéric Rousseaux

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Due to the increase in coastal flooding risk associated with climate change, there is a strong need to develop efficient and long term management strategies. In 2010, the storm Xynthia highlighted the limits of coastal flooding risk management in France. Besides a deficient alert system, it revealed a lack of risk culture. This problem was especially prevalent among local decision-makers who fail to take into account alternative prevention measures and adaptive strategies. In partnership with the local administration of Oléron Island – a sector strongly affected by storm Xynthia - we developed a participatory simulation model to foster social learning …

Including Discharge Uncertainties Into An Adaptable Objective Function For Rainfall - Runoff Model Calibration And Evaluation, Audrey Douinot, Hélène Roux, Denis Dartus

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Rainfall-runoff models are usually defined and assessed comparing simulation outputs to discharge measurements. The latter is calculated from stream stage measurements using stage-discharge relationships. This unavoidable step introduces uncertainties which can be significant especially during high flows. Unfortunately, most of the methods used to evaluate rainfall-runoff models neglect those data uncertainties and overestimate discharge measurement knowledge. The main objective of the paper is to integrate the real information content of discharge time series with a novel modelling errors formulation. Moreover, special attention is given to aggregating modelling errors into a score, such that the prediction accuracy level of each part …

Multi-Scale Adaptations And Vulnerability Transfer In An Artificial Society: From Sugarscape To Sugarscale, Bruno Bonté, Géraldine Abrami, Clara Therville, Louisa Kistemaker, François Bousquet, Olivier Barreteau, John M. Anderies

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In a context of global changes, coastal social-ecological systems are submitted to growing and combining pressures. To reduce their vulnerability, agents respond through adaptations that occurs at multiple scales (from individual to collective), leading to nested feedback loops with consequences that can be expected or not. Artificial societies are of great help to explore these complex and uncertain adaptation dynamics. Taking inspiration from Anderies et al. robustness framework, we modified Epstein and Axtell’ Sugarscape model to integrate a multi-scale perspective and explore vulnerability transfers following adaptation processes. Harvesters (users) are evolving in a cell-environment composed of spice and sugar (resources) …

Optimist: A Python Library For Water System Optimal Operation And Analysis Using Sddp, Luciano Raso, David Dorchies, Jan Kwakkel, Pierre Olivier Malaterre

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) is valuable tool in water management, employed for operational water management (i.e. suggesting effective release rules), and cost-benefit analysis evaluations. SDDP solves a multistage stochastic programming problem when uncertainty is a Markov process, and the system model is convex. SDDP can handle complex interconnected problem. Despite its potential, SDDP use is limited to few specialists.

We present Optimist, a python library for setting up an SDDP problem from components, i.e. elements and objectives, and their relationships. Elements presently developed are: streamflow input, reservoir, release, and river-reach. Objectives can be linear, used for energy …

Integrating Participation And Modelling To Support Natural Hazard Mitigation Planning, Hedwig Van Delden, Graeme A. Riddell, Roel Vanhout, Jeffrey P. Newman, Aaron C. Zecchin, Holger R. Maier, Graeme C. Dandy

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Natural hazard mitigation planning is a multi-facetted problem. Besides understanding the risk of various hazards at present, one also needs to understand how the probability of occurrence and the consequences change over time, what the impact of potential mitigation measures is on reducing the risks, and what the side effects of hazard mitigation options are on adjoining disciplines. Consequently, dealing with hazard mitigation encompasses various aspects that require different support techniques. In order to ensure consistency and complementarity these techniques should be used as a closely linked tool set. This paper proposes such a tool set or framework. It uses …

Consideration Of Decision-Making Processes In Agent-Based Models Of Social-Ecological Systems, Pierre Mazzega, Christophe Sibertin-Blanc, Olivier Therond

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The potential of Agent-Based Modeling is now well-established to address natural resource management and policy issues in social-ecological systems where a number of biophysical and anthropic processes interact. The selection of anthropic processes to be considered in a model according to the research question is not easy, due to modelers' difficulty to objectify and identify these processes. The paper proposes some criteria to identify anthropic processes, decide which ones to discard or retain and how to implement the latter. It is illustrated by the analysis of the governance sub-model of the MAELIA platform dedicated to the integrated assessment and simulation …

Land Use Change And Agricultural Production Of A Central European Region Expected Until 2050, Joerg A. Priess, Christian Hoyer, Greta Jäckel, Sebastian Pomm, Eva Lang, Christian Schweitzer

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Based on a participatory scenario process, we assessed potential land-use trajectories for Central Germany until 2050. The objective was to quantify consequences of large scale drivers such as climate change, as well as regional drivers such as population decline, and changes in regional preferences e.g. concerning bioenergy production, organic agriculture or reforestation as considered by regional stakeholders and scientists during scenario development. Stakeholders were covering a broad range of state and regional scale private and public bodies and NGOs. The spatially explicit and cellular automata based land use model SITE was used to simulate land use change scenarios until 2050. …

A Combined Abm-Ca Approach For Analysing Effects Of Peer-Influence And Landowner Decision- Making On Urban Development Patterns, J. Koch, M. A. Dorning, S. M. Beck, G. M. Sanchez, A. Shashidharan, L. S. Smart, J. W. Smith, D. B. Van Berkel, Q. Zhang, R. K. Meentemeyer

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In many parts of the U.S., population growth combined with continued demand for low-density housing is transforming the structure of peri-urban landscapes. Despite the substantial amount of privately owned land, the important decision-making roles that individual landowners play in shaping patterns of urbanization and landscape change is understudied. We introduce a data-informed simulation model developed to analyse the decision-making processes that determine spatial characteristics of fragmentation in peri-urban areas by combining the utility of a cellular automata urban growth algorithm (CA module), based on the FUTURES model, with an agent-based model (ABM module). The CA module is conceptualized as a …

Implementing Urine Patches In A Dynamic Process- Based Simulation Model, V. O. Snow, R. Cichota, N. J. Hutchings, J. Vejlin

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Grazing ruminants harvest N from pasture in the entire paddock and then deposit between 40 and 80% of the ingested N into urine patches that cover only 2-4% of the paddock area during a typical rotational grazing event. While previous work has shown the importance of explicitly modelling these patches of very high N deposition, most process-based simulation models assume uniform return of N to the soil. The very few models that explicitly model urine patches within the paddock do so at significant, perhaps prohibitive, computational cost. We sought a solution that would preserve the most important biophysical effects but …

Agrodb – Integration Of Database Management Systems With Crop Models, Alexandre Tagliari Lazzaretti, José Maurício C. Fernandes, Willingthon Pavan, Josué Toebe, Roberto Wiest

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The usefulness of crop simulation models for understanding and transferring agricultural technology is widely acknowledged. The decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT) has been in use for the last 3 decades by researchers worldwide. The DSSAT-Cropping System Model (CSM) is a general model for simulating crop growth and development, as well as the soil and plant water, nitrogen phosphorus, and carbon dynamics. The DSSAT-CSM comprises a suite of crop simulation models, including the CSM-CROPSIM wheat. However, depending on the type and number of simulations, it is usually necessary to handle large volumes of input and output data. A database …