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A Time-Series Forecasting Model For Windhoek Rainfall, Namibia, Godfrey T. Pazvakawambwa

Andrews Research Conference

The objective of the study was to use time series forecasting techniques to model Windhoek rainfall based on secondary monthly data from 1891 to 2011. Descriptive summary statistics in the form of measures of centrality and dispersion, time series plots, and autocorrelation functions were generated using R time series statistical software. The Box Jenkin’s ARIMA modelling procedure (model identification, model estimation, model validation) was used to determine the best models for the data. Model diagnostics based on residual analysis were performed to assess the adequacy of the identified models. The final model was then used to forecast monthly rainfall for …