Civil and Environmental Engineering Commons^™

Climate Change Impacts On Streamflow And Subbasin- Scale Hydrology In The Upper Colorado River Basin, Darren L. Ficklin, Edwin P. Maurer, Iris T. Stewert

Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering

In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6uC for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21st century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM …

The Key Role Of Heavy Precipitation Events In Climate Model Disagreements Of Future Annual Precipitation Changes In California, David W. Pierce, Daniel R. Cayan, Tapash Das, Edwin P. Maurer, Norman L. Miller, Yan Bao, M. Kanamitsu, Kei Yoshimura, Mark A. Snyder, Lisa C. Sloan, Guido Franco, Mary Tyree

Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering

Climate model simulations disagree on whether future precipitation will increase or decrease over California, which has impeded efforts to anticipate and adapt to human-induced climate change. This disagreement is explored in terms of daily precipitation frequency and intensity. It is found that divergent model projections of changes in the incidence of rare heavy (>60 mm day−1) daily precipitation events explain much of the model disagreement on annual time scales, yet represent only 0.3% of precipitating days and 9% of annual precipitation volume. Of the 25 downscaled model projections examined here, 21 agree that precipitation frequency will decrease by the …

Tools For Assessing Climate Impacts On Fish And Wildlife, Chad B. Wilsey, Joshua J. Lawler, Edwin P. Maurer, Donald Mckenzie, Patricia A. Townsend, Richard Gwozdz, James A. Freund, Keala Hagmann, Karen M. Hutten

Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering

Climate change is already affecting many fish and wildlife populations. Managing these populations requires an understanding of the nature, magnitude, and distribution of current and future climate impacts. Scientists and managers have at their disposal a wide array of models for projecting climate impacts that can be used to build such an understanding. Here, we provide a broad overview of the types of models available for forecasting the effects of climate change on key processes that affect fish and wildlife habitat (hydrology, fire, and vegetation), as well as on individual species distributions and populations. We present a framework for how …

Explaining The Hydroclimatic Variability And Change In The Salmon River Basin, Venkataramana Sridhar, Xin Jin, W. Thilini Jaksa

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Climate change in the Pacific Northwest and in particular, the Salmon River Basin (SRB), is expected to bring about 3–5 °C rise in temperatures and an 8 % increase in precipitation. In order to assess the impacts due to these changes at the basin scale, this study employed an improved version of Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which includes a parallel version of VIC combined with a comprehensive parameter estimation technique, Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) to estimate the streamflow and other water balance components. Our calibration (1955–1975) and validation (1976–1999) of the model at the outlet of the basin, White …

Probabilistic Estimates Of Future Changes In California Temperature And Precipitation Usingstatistical And Dynamical Downscaling, David W. Pierce, Tapash Das, Daniel R. Cayan, Edwin P. Maurer, Norman L. Miller, Yan Bao, M. Kanamitsu, Kei Yoshimura, Mark A. Snyder, Lisa C. Sloan, Guido Franco, Mary Tyree

Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar …

Tackling Change: Future-Proofing Water, Agriculture, And Food Security In An Era Of Climate Uncertainty, Peter G. Mccornick, Vladimir Smakhtin, Luna Bharati, Robyn Johnston, Matthew Mccartney, Fraser Sugden, Floriane Clement, Beverly Mcintyre

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

In 1950 the global population was just over 2.5 billion. Now, in 2013, it is around 7 billion. Although population growth is slowing, the world is projected to have around 9.6 billion inhabitants by 2050. Most of the population increase will be in developing countries where food is often scarce, and land and water are under pressure. To feed the global population in 2050 the world will have to produce more food without significantly expanding the area of cultivated land and, because of competition between a greater number of water users, with less freshwater. On top of land and water …

Probabilistic Sea-Level Rise Hazard Analysis, Ting Lin

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Research and Publications

This paper proposes a framework termed Probabilistic Sea-Level Rise Hazard Analysis (PSLRHA), to integrate the sea-level rise knowledge of current climate change scientific communities for informed engineering and policy decisions that affect coastal infrastructure, populations, and ecosystems. PSLRHA combines probabilities of all emission scenarios with predictions of the resulting sea-level rise over time, in order to compute sea-level rise hazard. PSLRHA also incorporates uncertainties in those sea-level rise predictions, by considering multiple Sea-Level Rise Prediction Models (SLRPMs). The output of the PSLRHA framework could be a Global Sea-Level Rise Hazard Map (GSLRHM) that can be used for Performance- Based Sea-Level …

Long-Term Integrated Studies Show Complex And Surprising Effects Of Climate Change In The Northern Hardwood Forest, Peter M. Groffman, Charles T. Driscoll, Chris E. Johnson, Lindsey E. Rustad, Pamela H. Templer

Civil and Environmental Engineering - All Scholarship

Evaluations of the local effects of global change are often confounded by the interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors that overshadow the effects of climate changes on ecosystems. Long-term watershed and natural elevation gradient studies at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest and in the surrounding region show surprising results demonstrating the effects of climate change on hydrologic variables (e.g., evapotranspiration, streamflow, soil moisture); the importance of changes in phenology on water, carbon, and nitrogen fluxes during critical seasonal transition periods; winter climate change effects on plant and animal community composition and ecosystem services; and the effects of anthropogenic disturbances and …

Agenda: 2012 Energy Justice Conference And Technology Exposition, University Of Colorado Boulder. Center For Energy & Environmental Security, University Of Colorado Boulder. Colorado European Union Center Of Excellence, University Of Colorado Boulder. Presidents Leadership Institute

2012 Energy Justice Conference and Technology Exposition (September 17-18)

Co-sponsored with the Colorado European Union Center of Excellence and the Presidents Leadership Institute at the University of Colorado Boulder.

The ability to harness energy is fundamental to economic and social development. Worldwide, almost 3 billion people have little or no access to beneficial energy resources for cooking, heating, water sanitation, illumination, transportation, or basic mechanical needs. Energy poverty exacerbates ill health and economic hardship, and reduces educational opportunities, particularly for women and children. Specifically, access to efficient and affordable energy services is a prerequisite for achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) relating to poverty eradication.

In response, the UN …

Slides: Appropriate Sustainable Energy Technologies: A Light To The World, Lakshman D. Guruswamy, Jason B. Aamodt, Blake Feamster

2012 Energy Justice Conference and Technology Exposition (September 17-18)

Presenter: Jason Aamodt, Attorney; Adjunct Professor, University of Tulsa

15 slides

Slides: Unido: Partner For Prosperity, Kandeh K. Yumkella

2012 Energy Justice Conference and Technology Exposition (September 17-18)

Presenter: Dr. Kandeh Yumkella, Chairman, UN Energy; Director General, United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO)

16 slides

Improving Complementary Methods To Predict Evapotranspiration For Data Deficit Conditions And Global Applications Under Climate Change, Fathi M. A. Anayah

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

A reliable estimate of evapotranspiration (ET) in river basins is important for the purpose of water resources planning and management. ET represents a significant portion of rainfall in the water budget; therefore, the uncertainty in estimating ET can lead to the inaccurate prediction of water resources. While remote sensing techniques are available to estimate ET, such methods are expensive and necessary data may not be readily available. Classical methods of estimating ET require detailed land use/cover information that are not readily available in rural river basins. Complementary methods provide simple and reliable approaches to estimate ET using meteorological data only. …

Modeling Potential Hydrochemical Responses To Climate Change And Increasing Co2 At The Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest Using A Dynamic Biogeochemical Model (Pnet-Bgc), Afshin Pourmokhtaria, Charles T. Driscoll, John L. Campbell, Katharine Hayhoe

Civil and Environmental Engineering - All Scholarship

Dynamic hydrochemical models are useful tools for understanding and predicting the interactive effects of climate change, atmospheric CO2, and atmospheric deposition on the hydrology and water quality of forested watersheds. We used the biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC, to evaluate the effects of potential future changes in temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and atmospheric CO2 on pools, concentrations, and fluxes of major elements at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, United States. Future climate projections used to run PnET-BGC were generated specifically for the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest with a statistical technique that downscales climate output (e.g., air temperature, precipitation, solar …

Impacts Of Climate Change On Hydrology And Water Resources In The Boise And Spokane River Basins, Xin Jin, Venkataramana Sridhar

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

In the Pacific Northwest, warming climate has resulted in a lengthened growing season, declining snowpack, and earlier timing of spring runoff. This study characterizes the impact of climate change in two basins in Idaho, the Spokane River and the Boise River basins. We simulated the basin-scale hydrology by coupling the downscaled precipitation and temperature outputs from a suite of global climate models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), between 2010 and 2060 and assess the impacts of climate change on water resources in the region. For the Boise River basin, changes in precipitation ranged from −3.8 to 36%. …

Fertilization Effects On The Ecohydrology Of A Southern California Annual Grassland, Anthony J. Parolari, Michael L. Goulden, Rafael L. Bras

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Research and Publications

Nitrogen limits leaf gas exchange, canopy development, and evapotranspiration in many ecosystems. In dryland ecosystems, it is unclear whether increased anthropogenic nitrogen inputs alter the widely recognized dominance of water and energy constraints on ecohydrology. We use observations from a factorial irrigation and fertilization experiment in a nitrogen-limited southern California annual grassland to explore this hypothesis. Our analysis shows growing season soil moisture and canopy-scale water vapor conductance are equivalent in control and fertilized plots. This consistency arises as fertilization-induced increases in leaf area index (LAI) are offset by reduced leaf area-based stomatal conductance, gs. We interpret this as evidence …

Technical Note: Bias Correcting Climate Model Simulated Daily Temperature Extremes With Quantile Mapping, Bridget Thrasher, Edwin P. Maurer, Philip B. Duffy, Colin Mckellar

Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering

When applying a quantile mapping-based bias correction to daily temperature extremes simulated by a global climate model (GCM), the transformed values of maximum and minimum temperatures are changed, and the diuWhen applying a quantile mapping-based bias correction to daily temperature extremes simulated by a global climate model (GCM), the transformed values of maximum and minimum temperatures are changed, and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) can become physically unrealistic. While causes are not thoroughly explored, there is a strong relationship between GCM biases in snow albedo feedback during snowmelt and bias correction resulting in unrealistic DTR values. We propose a technique …

Evaluating Climate Change Effects In Two Contrasting Reservoirs Using Two-Dimensional Water Quality And Hydrodynamic Models, Oliver Obregon

Theses and Dissertations

I analyzed and compared impacts from global climate change (GCC) and land use change to Deer Creek (United States) a temperate reservoir and Aguamilpa (Mexico), a tropical reservoir by using calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 (W2) water quality and hydrodynamic models based on field data over an extended time period. I evaluated and compared the sensitivity to predicted GCC and land use changes. I individually evaluated changes to air temperature (TAIR), inflow rates (Q), and nutrient loads (PO4-P and NO3-NO2-N) followed by analysis of worst case scenarios. I developed analysis methods using indexes to represent the total …

An Integrated System Dynamics Model For Analyzing Behaviour Of The Social-Energy-Economic-Climatic System: Model Description, Mohammad Khaled Akhtar, Slobodan P. Simonovic, Jacob Wibe, Jim Macgee, Jim Davies

Water Resources Research Report

The feedback based integrated assessment model ANEMI represents the society-biosphereclimate- economy-energy system of the earth and biosphere. The development of ANEMI model is done using the system dynamics simulation approach that (a) allows understanding and modeling of complex global change and (b) assists in the investigation of possible policy options for mitigating, and/or adopting to global changing conditions, within an integrated assessment modeling framework. This report presents ANEMI model and its nine individual sectors: climate, carbon cycle, land-use, population, food production, hydrologic cycle, water demand, water quality, and energy-economy. Two versions of the model are developed and presented in the …

Identifying Changes In Climatic Trends And The Fingerprints Of Landuse And Landcover Changes In The High Plains Of The Usa, Denis Mutiibwa

Department of Agricultural and Biological Systems Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Human activities such as conversion of natural ecosystem to croplands and urban-centers, deforestation and afforestation impact biophysical properties of land surface such as albedo, energy balance, and surface roughness. Alterations in these properties affect the heat and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmospheric boundary layer. The objectives of this research were; (i) to quantitatively identify the High plains’ regional climate change in temperatures over the period 1895 to 2006, (ii) detect the signatures of anthropogenic forcing of LULC changes on the regional climate change of the High Plains, and (iii) examine the trends in evolving regional latent heat …

A Look At 20th Century Droughts, Vijay P. Singh, Ashok K. Mishra

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

Droughts exercise a profound effect on the social and economic fabric of nations. Many nations of the world experienced droughts encompassing the full spectrum of severity, areal extent and duration. The result has been that the economic development was hampered and many countries have not yet recouped fully from the ravages of droughts. The first decade of the 21st century has also witnessed varying degrees of droughts across the globe. Therefore, we ask the following questions: (a) Do droughts affect every part of the world? (b) Are there similarities in major droughts around the world? (c) Are climate change and …

Developing Methods To Assess The Potential Effects Of Global Climate Change On Deer Creek Reservoir Using Water Quality Modeling, Reed Earl Chilton

Theses and Dissertations

To evaluate the potential impacts of future climate change on a temperate reservoir, I used a calibrated water quality and hydrodynamic model validated using three years of data (2007-2009) from Deer Creek Reservoir (Utah). I evaluated the changes due to altered air temperatures, inflow rates, and nutrient loads that might occur under Global Climate Change (GCC). I developed methods to study GCC on reservoirs. I produced Average Water Temperature Plots, Stratification Plots, and Total Concentration Plots. Average Water Temperature Plots show the sensitivity of the water temperature to various parameters. Stratification Plots quantify stratification length and strength as well as …

Slides: Environmental Water In Australia, Chris Arnott

Conversation with Water Management Reps from Colorado and Australia: "Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons Learned from Australia" (February 14)

Presenter: Chris Arnott, Managing Director, Alluvium Consulting

30 slides

The Utility Of Daily Large-Scale Climate Data In The Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Daily Streamflow In California, Edwin P. Maurer, H. G. Hidalgo, T. Das, M. D. Dettinger, D. R. Cayan

Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering

Three statistical downscaling methods were applied to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (used as a surrogate for the best possible general circulation model), and the downscaled meteorology was used to drive a hydrologic model over California. The historic record was divided into an “observed” period of 1950–1976 to provide the basis for downscaling, and a “projected” period of 1977–1999 for assessing skill. The downscaling methods included a biascorrection/ spatial downscaling method (BCSD), which relies solely on monthly large scale meteorology and resamples the historical record to obtain daily sequences, a constructed analogues approach (CA), which uses daily large-scale anomalies, and a hybrid method …

Sustainable Portland: Implementation Series 3, New England Environmental Finance Center

Climate Change

This report is the third in a series of efforts by students at the Muskie School of Public Service, Community Planning and Development Master’s program, in a core class called “Sustainable Communities.” In this course students seek to understand principles of sustainability and how efforts to implement Sustainability programs can become more successful. The report assembles term papers students completed on particular efforts by municipalities, universities, and other groups to achieve sustainability goals. Students worked on each project in a service learning format with real world clients. They were asked to fashion their papers around lessons learned by other organizations …

Colorado River Water: Mexico's Perspective On The Ongoing Negotiations, Mario López Pérez

US-Mexico Negotiations on Improved Colorado River Management: An Update (February 19)

Presenter: Mario López, Engineering and Technical Standards Manager, National Water Commission of México

53 slides

Agenda: The Promise And Peril Of Oil Shale Development, University Of Colorado Boulder. Natural Resources Law Center

The Promise and Peril of Oil Shale Development (February 5)

The largest known oil shale deposits in the world are in the Green River Formation, which covers portions of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. Fully one-half of the world’s oil shale lies within 150 miles of Grand Junction, Colorado, and about 80% of these reserves are on federal land. Estimates of recoverable reserves in the Green River Formation range from 500 billion to 1.53 trillion barrels. At present consumption rates, this is enough oil to satisfy 100% of U.S. demand for well over 100 years.

Development of oil shale could cause significant impacts on the Colorado Plateau. It would provide for …

Slides: Costs And Benefits Of Oil Shale Development, James T. Bartis

The Promise and Peril of Oil Shale Development (February 5)

Presenter: James T. Bartis, Senior Policy Researcher, Rand Corporation

21 slides

Slides: Oil Shale Water Needs, State Water Planning And The Colorado River Compact, Daniel R. Birch

The Promise and Peril of Oil Shale Development (February 5)

Presenter: Daniel R. Birch, Deputy General Manager & Chief Engineer, Colorado River District

17 slides

Slides: The Peril Of Energy Usage, Mike Tupper

The Promise and Peril of Oil Shale Development (February 5)

Presenter: Mike Tupper, Executive Vice President, Composite Technology Development, Inc.

9 slides

Slides: The Elusive Bonanza, Randy Udall

The Promise and Peril of Oil Shale Development (February 5)

Presenter: Randy Udall, Co-founder, Association for the Study of Peak Oil-USA

62 slides