Aviation Commons^™

Short-Term Forecasting Airport Passenger Flow During Periods Of Volatility: Comparative Investigation Of Time Series Vs. Neural Network Models, David H. Hopfe, Kiljae Lee, Chunyan Yu

Publications

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), known for handling complex data tasks like language translation and speech recognition, are seldom employed in airport management practice for daily and weekly passenger flow forecasting tasks. In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness and adaptability of various neural network models (RNN, LSTM, GRU, Deep LSTM, Bidirectional LSTM, multivariate RNN, and multivariate LSTM) against standard time series models (ARIMA, SARIMA, and SARIMAX) for a short-term forecasting airport security checkpoint passenger flows at five major U.S. airports during the pandemic.

At Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson Airport (ATL), the RNN notably surpasses SARIMA's forecasting accuracy by 34% (DM= 3.44, p …

Impact Of Weather Factors On Airport Arrival Rates: Application Of Machine Learning In Air Transportation, Robert W. Maxson, Dothang Truong, Woojin Choi

Publications

Weather is responsible for approximately 70% of air transportation delays in the National Airspace System, and delays resulting from convective weather alone cost airlines and passengers millions of dollars each year due to delays that could be avoided. This research sought to establish relationships between environmental variables and airport efficiency estimates by data mining archived weather and airport performance data at ten geographically and climatologically different airports. Several meaningful relationships were discovered from six out of ten airports using various machine learning methods within an overarching data mining protocol, and the developed models were tested using historical data.

Deficient Aeronautical Decision-Making Contributions To Fatal General Aviation Accidents, Douglas D. Boyd, Mark Scharf Phd

Publications

INTRODUCTION: General aviation (GA), mainly comprised of light (≤12,500 lb) aircraft, maintains an inferior safety record compared with air carriers. To improve safety, aeronautical decision-making (ADM) practices have been advocated to GA pilots since 1991. Herein, we determined the extent to which GA pilots disregard such practices. METHODS: Fatal accidents (1991–2019) involving private pilots (PPLs) in single-engine airplanes were identified (N = 1481) from the National Transportation Safety Board AccessR database. Of these, deficient go/no-go and in-flight ADM-related mishaps were scored using the PAVE (pilot, aircraft, environment, external pressure)/IMSAFE (illness, medicine, stress, alcohol, fatigue, eating) and PPP (perceive, process, …

The Wings Program And The Compliance Program, Sarah Nilsson

Publications

No abstract provided.

Perception Of Crisis Management, Service Quality, And Loyalty Programs On Airline Travel Intention: What Roles Do Fear Of Covid-19 And Risk Attitude Play?, Sohel M. Imroz, Tamilla Curtis, Scott C. Ambrose

Publications

This research investigates the antecedents of airline travel intention, including the effects of crisis management, service quality perceptions, and loyalty programs, along with the fear of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and risk attitude among individuals from different parts of the world during the peak of the pandemic. Its main objective is to assess how these variables impact passenger airline travel intention. Partial least squares structural equation modeling was used to assess the measurement model and test the hypothesized relationships on the sample of 944 travelers. Results indicated strong positive associations between fear of COVID-19, risk-averse attitudes, and service quality with respect …

Systems Thinking Applied To Higher Education Curricula Development, Reza Rahdar, Mark London, Yuetong Lin, Hong Jiang

Publications

Systems Thinking (ST) is a general and yet nebulous term that describes an approach to understanding and working with complexity in the real world. ST seeks to evaluate different behaviors of individual system elements when they operate in isolation as opposed to when they are integrated as part of a larger system and placed within a particular operating environment. The education environment consists of multiple systems with different digital content, learning goals/outcomes that serve different stakeholders including teachers, learners, and administrators. The inherent complexity and interaction among these various educational system elements and functions make this environment a worthy candidate …

A Literary Survey On The U.S. Airline Maintenance Outsourcing: Technology, Economics, And Politics Perspectives, Linfeng Jin, Chien-Ting Lu

Publications

This study examines the U.S. airline maintenance outsourcing- a common business phenomenon in the post-1978 deregulated airline industry. Over the years, there have been several fatal accidents in the U.S. linked to airline maintenance outsourcing, and it has caught the attention of the government and general public. This paper went over the complex airline maintenance outsourcing factors from technology, economics, and political tripartite perspectives. And suggestions for the airlines, the regulators and the legislators are made in the end

Pilots’ Desire To Become Future Space Tourism Pilots: Polynomial Regression Using Response Surface Analysis, Robert A. Goehlich, Ralf Bebenroth

Publications

In this study, we investigated the impact of pilots’ motivation on their desire to be space tourism pilots or to remain in their current occupation (adherence). We analyzed the feedback obtained from a survey questionnaire on a sample consisting of 106 pilots with flying experience. In particular, we compared the pilots’ intrinsic and extrinsic motivations to investigate two outcomes: the desire to become future space pilots or to remain as air pilots. Applying the self-determination theory, we found that intrinsic motivation mattered more than extrinsic motivation. Furthermore, by applying response surface analysis as our statistical tool, it was revealed that …

Overview Of Low-Cost Carriers In Russia And Post-Soviet States, Tamilla Curtis, Dawna L. Rhoades

Publications

The low-cost carrier's model made remarkable gains across the globe in the prior decade, although growth was uneven domestically and intraregionally. Within this region, there are significant differences in overall country size, the size of the domestic aviation market, and the number of carriers serving the market. The largest and most developed market is in Russia, but rest of the region also experienced growth in economy airlines' activity as they discovered the power of the model to expand aviation access and lower costs. The success of low-cost carriers, however, has been halting and hampered by government decisions on foreign investment, …

Evidence-Based Managerial Decision-Making With Machine Learning: The Case Of Bayesian Inference In Aviation Incidents, Aaron Glassman, Burak Cankaya, Kazim Topuz, Dursun Delen

Publications

Understanding the factors behind aviation incidents is essential, not only because of the lethality of the accidents but also the incidents’ direct and indirect economic impact. Even minor incidents trigger significant economic damage and create disruptions to aviation operations. It is crucial to investigate these incidents to understand the underlying reasons and hence, reduce the risk associated with physical and financial safety in a precarious industry like aviation. The findings may provide decision-makers with a causally accurate means of investigating the topic while untangling the difficulties concerning the statistical associations and causal effects. This research aims to identify the significant …

Short-Haul Airline Services In Europe And North America - A Cross-Business Model And Cross-Continental Analysis, Chunyan Yu, Richard Klophaus

Publications

We examine short-haul services offered by the respective 10 largest European and North American carriers in terms of fleet composition, network characteristics, airfare and product attributes. Our cross-business model and cross-continental analysis builds on the index approach developed by Klophaus et al. (2012) to derive a typology of the hybridization among the largest carriers in Europe and North America in short-haul markets. Our results indicate that none of the largest European and North American carriers follows the pure LCC business model in short-haul markets, and all the LCCs in Europe and North America have adopted certain degree of hybrid strategy …

The Evolution Of Ai On The Commercial Flight Deck: Finding Balance Between Efficiency And Safety While Maintaining The Integrity Of Operator Trust, Mark Miller, Sam Holley, Leila Halawi

Publications

As artificial intelligence (AI) seeks to improve modern society, the commercial aviation industry offers a significant opportunity. Although many parts of commercial aviation including maintenance, the ramp, and air traffic control show promise to integrate AI, the highly computerized digital flight deck (DFD) could be challenging. The researchers seek to understand what role AI could provide going forward by assessing AI evolution on the commercial flight deck over the past 50 years. A modified SHELL diagram is used to complete a Human Factors (HF) analysis of the early use for AI on the commercial flight deck through introduction of the …

Flying Blind: Exploring The Visual Cues Used By Helicopter Pilots In Degraded Visual Environments, Brandon Dreslin, Molly C. Mersinger, Shivani Patel, Alex Chaparro

Publications

Helicopter pilots rely on visual cues from the environment and instrument displays during critical phases of flight – particularly final approach and landing – to safely land. However, the specific visual cues pilots rely on and how they integrate those cues to make anticipatory inceptor inputs or corrections are not well understood. Importantly, those cues may be degraded under nighttime and brownout/whiteout conditions where the downwash of a helicopter’s rotors cause loose dirt/snow to be projected into the air, resulting in the obfuscation of the pilot’s vision outside the aircraft. The lack of visual cues in these conditions means that …

Implementing Dei In Aviation Education: Coping And Addressing Mental Health Concerns, Jorge L. D. Albelo Ph.D., Michael F. O'Toole Ph.D., Samantha Bowyer

Publications

In recent years, different global events have led to increased awareness of the benefits of promoting diversity, equity, and inclusion in the workplace and education. Notably, the aviation industry is seeing increased research initiatives to promote DEI among all generations. Nevertheless, given the rising concerns about mental health in higher education, this paper sought to connect coping and addressing mental health through implementing DEI teachings in aviation education. Integrating DEI in the aviation classroom can be challenging, as many faculty members might feel uncomfortable addressing the topic in their courses. Consequently, the researchers proposed and tested an aviation education approach …

Mental Health Needs Among Minority Aviation Students, Jorge L. D. Albelo Ph.D., Stacey Mcintire

Publications

Higher education, including science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education, benefit our society and economic growth. However, overcoming gender disparity and increasing the retention of underrepresented minorities within these programs is challenging. Mental health across higher education has shown to be on the rise, and when it comes to the mental health needs of aviation students, research shows that underrepresented minorities experience unique challenges in achieving academic success. This paper focused on identifying aviation minority students' unique challenges in a small STEM university. This mixed-methods action research study collected quantitative data using an adapted version of the Counseling Center Assessment …

Aviation Supply And Demand In The São Paulo And Rio De Janeiro Systems Evolution: An Exploratory Study, Leila Halawi, Bruno De Paula Balan, Renan Cipriano Da Cunha, Maria Claudia Ferreira Da Cunha

Publications

Aim/purpose – Multiple factors affect a passenger’s origin and destination airport choice. This study explores some of the leading indicators associated with performance in cities with more than one airport. Two important Multi-Airport Systems (MAS) in Brazil were the object of this study: São Paulo (Congonhas and Guarulhos) and Rio de Janeiro (Santos Dumont and Galeão), the most significant demand-generating centers in the country and the most critical distribution centers of flights from South America.

Design/methodology/approach – Using public databases presenting the evolution of supply and demand from 2013 to 2018, the evolution of flights, and the sales by airlines …

Defining Aviation “Skills” To Ensure Effective, Safe, And Efficient Evaluations: A Qualitative Study, Jorge L. D. Albelo Ph.D., Haydee M. Cuevas, Marisa Aguiar, Christopher Piccone, Karlene Petitt, Raquel Villagomez

Publications

The present qualitative case study strives to define the term skill within aviation, drawing from the cognitive psychology, organizational psychology, and training literature as well as input from subject matter experts in the aviation industry. A review of the published literature revealed no consensus for defining what constitutes a skill. While some definitions follow a task-based approach, others emphasize more cognitively based representations. Moreover, a formal, commonly accepted definition of the term skill within the aviation domain is lacking. The researchers employed a qualitative case study methodology to extract true descriptions from the subject matter experts to bound and expand …

Girls In Aviation - Keynote Speaker, Sarah Nilsson

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Girls in Aviation Day (GIAD) Keynote address by Associate Professor of Applied Aviation Science Sarah Nilsson.

Predicting The Impact Of Covid-19 On Air Transportation Volumes, Dothang Truong

Publications

COVID-19 has significant impacts on air transportation. This paper aims to predict domestic and international transportation volumes during the pandemic. Daily trips by distance are novel variables in the prediction. Additionally, COVID-19 severity, vaccination, and economic index are other predictors. Artificial Neural Networks and Monte Carlo simulations were used to develop and validate the predictive models using data from various sources in 2021. The findings confirm the importance of daily trips by distance and vaccination as significant predictors. Airlines can use the models to predict air transportation volumes and formulate appropriate strategies to meet the air travel demand and improve …

Resilience Attributes Of Certificated Flight Instructors, David Cross, Kristine Kiernan

Publications

The aviation industry has extensive vocabulary, data sources, and theoretical models to investigate human errors. However, the industry does not have commensurate ways to think about and analyze human success. Learning from successful routine operations is challenging because the corresponding common language and data streams are less robust. This paper explores the use of the critical incident debrief method to collect data on routine resilient performance among Certificated Flight Instructors (CFI). CFI thoughts and behaviors were coded in accordance with resilience theory. The critical incident debrief method is a valuable source of data for exploring resilient performance as it provides …

Assessing Unstabilized Approaches: A Phenomenology Study Of The Risk Perceptions And Decision-Making Thought Process Of General Aviation Pilots., Shlok Misra, Jorge L. D. Albelo Ph.D., Victor Fraticelli Rivera

Publications

The Federal Aviation Administration emphasized the need to focus on and develop human factors training as early as 1993 in official Human Factors Policy Order 9550.8. The purpose of this study was to conduct a detailed qualitative phenomenological analysis of the risk perceptions and decision-making model of collegiate aviation pilots for unstabilized approaches. The study focused on understanding how collegiate aviation pilots perceive unstable approaches, the risk associated with unstable approaches, and the factors that trigger pilots to execute a go-around. The International Air Transportation Association warns that continuing an unstabilized approach can lead to runway excursions, hard landings causing …

Remotely Piloted Aircraft C2 Latency During Air-To- Air Combat, David L. Thirtyacre

Publications

Remotely piloted aircraft command-and-control latency could play a significant role during beyond-line-of-sight engagements in future conflicts. As the Air Force prepares to use these systems and artificial intelligence in within-visual-range combat, it must understand the effects of latency, or missing sensor data, during a dogfight. Research indicates technology-based latency influences the engagement outcome geometry similar to a slow decision-making cycle foundational to the understanding of Boyd’s Observe, Orient, Decide, Act (OODA) Loop. This study adds depth to the theory illustrating technology-induced latency has a similar effect as slow human decision making resulting in lower performance. Therefore, when combined with the …

The Effects Of 5g Implementation On The Aspects Of Sustainability In The Air Transportation Industry, Leila Halawi, Douglas Ashlock, Lucy Elias, Hannah Puchkoris, Anthony Williams

Publications

The concern of 5G C-band frequency interference with global aviation operations was founded on the criticality of a single-point failure with the radio altimeter operations. The research in this report intends to highlight the severe impact of 5G C-band implementation on the air transportation industry. It focuses on one airport in the United States, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA), one of the busiest airports in the country, flying both domestically and internationally. The results show that Boeing aircraft are affected more than Airbus for 5G interference. Further, the findings show that the United States should align its 5G implementation with other …

Teaching Diversity, Equity, And Inclusion In Aviation Education., Jorge L. D. Albelo Ph.D., Nicola O'Toole

Publications

Over the last decade, many companies have begun to recognize the value of a diverse workforce, equity within the workforce, and inclusion practices. Recent global events have pushed the promotion of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) in the aviation workplace and education higher on the priority list for many. Unfortunately, the aviation industry continues to have difficulty in attracting and retaining a diverse workforce. Notwithstanding this struggle in the industry, those in education must find ways to educate our students on topics relating to DEI. It is critically important that this training is rooted in research. The aviation industry is …

Utilizing Uas To Support Wildlife Hazard Management Efforts By Airport Operators, Flavio A. C. Mendonca, Ryan Wallace

Publications

The FAA requires airports operating under the Code of Federal Regulations Part 139 to conduct a wildlife hazard assessment (WHA) when some wildlife-strike events have occurred at or near the airport. The WHA should be conducted by a Qualified Airport Wildlife Biologist (QAWB) and must contain several elements, including the identification of the wildlife species observed and their numbers; local movements; daily and seasonal occurrences; and the identification and location of features on and near the airport that could attract wildlife. Habitats and land-use practices at and around the airport are key factors affecting wildlife species and the size of …

Analyzing The Effect Of Delta Airlines' Fleet Upgrade On Operations At Atlanta-Hartsfield Jackson International Airport, Carlos Alberto Castro, Shlok Misra

Publications

Commercial aviation has seen a growth in terms of passengers traveled and flights operated in the past decade (BTS, 2020). To cope up with this growth, airlines adopt various strategies such as network expansion and fleet upgrades. Airlines adopt fleet upgrade strategies to modernize their fleet, reduce costs, expand network coverage, and improve customer loyalty and experience. Research suggests that change in wake turbulence categorization and aircraft performance can directly impact the movements and delays at an airport. For this study, Delta Airline's fleet upgrade program and its effect on operating parameters at Atlanta-Hartsfield Jackson International Airport were analyzed. The …

Student Engagement In Aviation Massive Open Online Courses (Moocs), Jennifer M. Edwards, Haydee M. Cuevas, Felix Brito, Mark Friend, Maryjo O. Smith

Publications

As online training in the aviation industry continues to expand, understanding how learners engage in open online courses may help inform course design. Currently little is known about student engagement in aviation Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) and more information is needed about those who utilize, but do not complete them. Datasets from two aviation MOOCs were cluster-analyzed to determine subpopulations based on activity (discussions, videos, quizzes). Differences were examined for days of activity and completion. Survey data revealed differences in demographics and learning goals. Three significantly different subgroups were found for each MOOC. Engagement patterns were similar between corresponding …

General Aviation Flight Safety During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Douglas D. Boyd

Publications

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: The COVID-19 virus has caused over 582,000 deaths in the United States to date. However, the pandemic has also afflicted the mental health of the population at large in the domains of anxiety and sleep disruption, potentially interfering with cognitive function. From an aviation perspective, safely operating an aircraft requires an airmans cognitive engagement for: 1) situational awareness, 2) spatial orientation, and 3) avionics programming. Since impaired cognitive function could interfere with such tasks, the current study was undertaken to determine if flight safety for a cohort of single engine, piston-powered light airplanes was adversely affected during a period …

Aessa Young Professionals Forum Webinar “Technologies And Skills That Will Gearup The Aerospace Industry Post Pandemic” - A Global Perspective With An Emphasis On South Africa October 2021, Linda Vee Weiland

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A webinar presentation for AeSSA Young Professionals.

Contributory Factors Of Fatigue Among Collegiate Aviation Pilots: An Ordinal Regression Analysis, Flavio A. C. Mendonca, Julius Keller, Daniel Kwasi Adjekum

Publications

Fatigue is a pervasive safety hazard in aviation affecting several aspects of a pilot's’ ability to safely perform their jobs. Several factors can contribute to fatigue, including inadequate sleep, stress, long work hours, excessive workload, and inadequate nutritional habits. In addition to flight training, some factors including academic, social, part-time work, and emerging time management skills are unique for Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 141 collegiate aviation pilots. By utilizing the Collegiate Aviation Fatigue Inventory (CAFI-II) at eight flight programs (n = 422), the current study examined factors such as fatigue training received, time spent working/studying and …