Aviation Commons^™

Distribution Comparisons Of Eac Cost Growth For Aircraft Work Breakdown Structure Elements, Kyle P. Marquis, Edward D. White, Brandon M. Lucas, Robert D. Fass, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Shawn M. Valentine

Faculty Publications

This article analyzes and investigates the distribution of cost growth of the Estimate at Completion (EAC) for the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements of approximately 60 historical United States Acquisition Category I Research, Development, Test and Evaluation aircraft programs. Using the method of maximum likelihood in conjunction with the Akaike Information Criterion, the authors suggest that both the lognormal and Weibull distributions provide relatively good fit to EAC cost growth, with the lognormal slightly edging out the Weibull. As a summarized finding, the authors present their empirical results for the mean, coefficient of variation (CV), the 15th and 85th percentiles …

The Space Rescue Professional: Operationalizing Guardians For The Future, Benjamin Johnis, Robert Bettinger, James Dean

Faculty Publications

The escalating competition in space exploration demands a dedicated space rescue capability. This article argues for the establishment of a space rescue professional (SRP) career field within the Department of Defense and the US Space Force. By harnessing existing US Air Force combat rescue expertise and partnering with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Space Force can rapidly develop a robust SRP program with the warrant officer corps as its backbone. This article addresses a critical gap in national space policy to outline a cost-effective dual-service training pipeline and SRP operational roles. Such an investment safeguards astronauts, bolsters US …

Measuring Radiation Protection: Partners From Across The Nuclear Enterprise Evaluate The Radiation Protection Of Us Army Vehicles, Andrew W. Decker, Robert Prins

Faculty Publications

Recent mounting nuclear threats and postures from adversary nation-states, such as Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, represent a clear danger to the interests and security of the United States of America and its Allies. To meet these threats, the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review requires the Department of Defense (DoD) to design, develop, and manage a combat-credible U.S. military which, among other prioritizations, is survivable. A survivable force can generate combat power despite adversary attacks. As such, the US Army must prepare today to set the conditions for successful conventional warfare on the nuclear battlefields of tomorrow. Our Army cannot …

Utilizing The System Engineering Trade Study Analysis Method To Analyze Patient Aeromedical Evacuation, Sara Shaghaghi, Jeremy M. Slagley, Michael E. Miller, Gaiven Varshney

Faculty Publications

The US Air Force has gone through many aeromedical patient isolation transport system designs. The first designs were developed in response to the Ebola outbreak in 2014 and, more recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. The trade study analysis part of the system engineering design method was used to analyze the historic and current aeromedical patient contamination control transport systems. A trade study is a process that evaluates alternatives based upon various “-ilities”, such as reconfigurability, flexibility, durability, cost, and more, and performs a systematic analysis to aid designers in producing a ‘good’ design alternative given the large set of possible solutions. …

Pilot Development: An Empirical Mixed-Method Analysis, Jonathan Slottje, Jason Anderson, John M. Dickens, Adam D. Reiman

Faculty Publications

Purpose — Pilot upgrade training is critical to aircraft and passenger safety. This study aims to identify variances in the US Air Force C-130J pilot upgrade training based on geographic location and provide a model to enhance policy that will impact future pilot training efforts that lower cost and increase operator quality and proficiency.
Design/methodology/approach — This research employed a mixed-method approach. First, the authors collected data and analyzed 90 C-130J pilots' aviation records and then contextualized this analysis with interviews of experts. Finally, the authors present a modified version of Six Sigma's define–measure–analyze–improve–control (DMAIC) that identifies and reduces the …

Transportation Service Level Impact On Aircraft Availability, Vincent Mclean, Adam D. Reiman

Faculty Publications

Purpose — Aircraft fail to meet mission capable rate goals due to a lack of supply of aircraft parts in inventory where the aircraft breaks. This triggers an order at the repair location. To maximize mission capable rate, the time from order to delivery needs to be minimized. The purpose of this research is to examine the case of three airfields for the order to delivery time of mission critical aircraft parts for a specific aircraft type. Design/methodology/approach — This research captured data from three information systems to assess the order fulfillment process. The data were analyzed to determine the …

Supply Chain Resilience: How Autonomous Rovers Empirically Provide Relief To Constrained Flight Line Maintenance Activities, Mary A. Stanton, Jason Anderson, John M. Dickens, Lance Champagne

Faculty Publications

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to explore the utility of autonomous transport across two independent airframe maintenance operations at a single location. Design/methodology/approach – This study leveraged discrete event simulation that encompassed real-world conditions on a United States Air Force flight line. Though the Theory of Constraints (TOC) lens, a high-demand, human-controlled delivery asset is analyzed and the impact of introducing an autonomous rover delivery vehicle is assessed. The authors’ simulations explored varying numbers and networks of rovers as alternative sources of delivery and evaluated these resources’ impact against current flight line operations. Findings – This research …

Sortie-Based Aircraft Component Demand Rate To Predict Requirements, Thomas R. O'Neal, John M. Dickens, Lance Champaign, Aaron V. Glassburner, Jason R. Anderson, Timothy W. Breitbach

Faculty Publications

Purpose — Forecasting techniques improve supply chain resilience by ensuring that the correct parts are available when required. In addition, accurate forecasts conserve precious resources and money by avoiding new start contracts to produce unforeseen part requests, reducing labor intensive cannibalization actions and ensuring consistent transportation modality streams where changes incur cost. This study explores the effectiveness of the United States Air Force’s current flying hour-based demand forecast by comparing it with a sortie-based demand forecast to predict future spare part needs. Design/methodology/approach — This study employs a correlation analysis to show that demand for reparable parts on certain aircraft …

Shifting Satellite Control Paradigms: Operational Cybersecurity In The Age Of Megaconstellations, Carl A. Poole, Robert A. Bettinger, Mark Reith

Faculty Publications

The introduction of automated satellite control systems into a space-mission environment historically dominated by human-in-the-loop operations will require a more focused understanding of cybersecurity measures to ensure space system safety and security. On the ground-segment side of satellite control, the debut of privately owned communication antennas for rent and a move to cloud-based operations or mission centers will bring new requirements for cyber protection for both Department of Defense and commercial satellite operations alike. It is no longer a matter of whether automation will be introduced to satellite operations, but how quickly satellite operators can adapt to the onset of …

Quantifying The Effects Of Aircraft Engine Upgrades On Operating And Support Costs, Bradford A. Myers, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, R. David Fass

Faculty Publications

For fixed wing aircraft within the U.S. Air Force, Operating and Support (O&S) costs encompass a large portion of total life cycle costs. O&S costs include fuel, maintenance, and engine upgrades. To the authors’ knowledge, no study to date has attempted to empirically quantify the realized effects of new aircraft engines on sustainment costs. Utilizing the Air Force Total Ownership Cost database, they focused on new engines appearing on the C-5s, C-130s, and C-135s. Although narrow in scope, results suggest newer engines have lower fuel costs. Maintenance costs for newer engines were not consistently higher or lower than the engines …

Modified C-17 Taxi Procedures: A Fuel Cost Savings Exploration, Michael Wells, Michael Krester, Benjamin Hazen, Jeffery D. Weir

Faculty Publications

Purpose — This study aims to explore the viability of using C-17 reduced-engine taxi procedures from a cost savings and capability perspective. Design/methodology/approach — This study model expected engine fuel flow based on the number of operational engines, aircraft gross weight (GW) and average aircraft groundspeed. Using this model, the research executes a cost savings simulation estimating the expected annual savings produced by the proposed taxi methodology. Operational and safety risks are also considered. Findings — The results indicate that significant fuel and costs savings are available via the employment of reduced-engine taxi procedures. On an annual basis, the mobility …

Order Fulfillment Errors And Military Aircraft Readiness, Michael Weber, Daniel Steeneck, William Cunningham

Faculty Publications

This paper aims to measure the effect of supply discrepancy reports (SDRs) on military aircraft readiness metrics, including aircraft availability, not mission capable supply (NMCS) hours, cannibalizations and mission-impaired capability awaiting parts (MICAP) hours.

Monthly SDR, NMCS, aircraft cannibalizations and MICAP data from 2009 to 2018 are analyzed using linear regression and independent samples t-tests to examine whether discrepant shipments negatively impact aircraft readiness.

An Agent Based Model Of Passenger Boarding For Examining Commercial Aircraft Boarding Strategies, Frank W. Ciarallo, Raymond R. Hill, Kerry K. Ward

Faculty Publications

We use an agent-based simulation methodology to study airline passenger boarding using measures that reflect both the customer experience and airline efficiency perspective. This approach supports exploration of models of actual aircraft used in practice and detailed modeling of passenger dynamics. This paper discusses the modeling approach and a set of experiments comparing several boarding strategies from practical settings as well as the literature.

Segmentation Of Severe Occupational Incidents In Agribusiness Industries Using Latent Class Clustering, Fatemeh Davoudi Kakhki, Steven Freeman, Gretchen Mosher

Faculty Publications

One of the principle objectives in occupational safety analysis is to identify the key factors that affect the severity of an incident. To identify risk groups of occupational incidents and the factors associated with them, statistical analysis of workers’ compensation claims data is performed using latent class clustering, for the segmentation of 1031 severe occupational incidents in agribusiness industries in the Midwest region of the United States between 2008–2016. In this study, severe incidents are those with workers’ compensation costs equal to or greater than $100,000 (USD). Based on the latent class clustering results, three risk groups are identified with …

Use Of Logistic Regression To Identify Factors Influencing The Post-Incident State Of Occupational Injuries In Agribusiness Operations, Fatemeh Davoudi Kakhki, Steven Freeman, Gretchen Mosher

Faculty Publications

Agribusiness industries are among the most hazardous workplaces for non-fatal occupational injuries. The term “post-incident state” is used to describe the health status of an injured person when a non-fatal occupational injury has occurred, in the post-incident period when the worker returns to work, either immediately with zero days away from work (medical state) or after a disability period (disability state). An analysis of nearly 14,000 occupational incidents in agribusiness operations allowed for the classification of the post-incident state as medical or disability (77% and 23% of the cases, respectively). Due to substantial impacts of occupational incidents on labor-market outcomes, …

Evaluating Machine Learning Performance In Predicting Injury Severity In Agribusiness Industries, Fatemeh Davoudi Kakhki, Steven Freeman, Gretchen Mosher

Faculty Publications

Although machine learning methods have been used as an outcome prediction tool in many fields, their utilization in predicting incident outcome in occupational safety is relatively new. This study tests the performance of machine learning techniques in modeling and predicting occupational incidents severity with respect to accessible information of injured workers in agribusiness industries using workers’ compensation claims. More than 33,000 incidents within agribusiness industries in the Midwest of the United States for 2008–2016 were analyzed. The total cost of incidents was extracted and classified from workers’ compensation claims. Supervised machine learning algorithms for classification (support vector machines with linear, …

Providing A Piece Of The Puzzle: Insights Into The Aircraft Availability Conundrum, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Tamiko L. Ritschel, Nicole B. York

Faculty Publications

Aircraft availability (AA) is a key metric for assessing operational readiness. The declining trend in AA is a documented concern for senior Air Force leaders. This paper aims to investigate the components of non-available time and subsequently focuses on the largest and fastest growing category: not mission capable maintenance unscheduled (NMCMU). Then, utilization of aircraft platforms is examined to determine the readiness benefits of increasing available hours.

Analyzing Large Workers’ Compensation Claims Using Generalized Linear Models And Monte Carlo Simulation, Fatemeh Davoudi Kakhki, Steven Freeman, Gretchen Mosher

Faculty Publications

Insurance practitioners rely on statistical models to predict future claims in order to provide financial protection. Proper predictive statistical modeling is more challenging when analyzing claims with lower frequency, but high costs. The paper investigated the use of predictive generalized linear models (GLMs) to address this challenge. Workers’ compensation claims with costs equal to or more than US$100,000 were analyzed in agribusiness industries in the Midwest of the USA from 2008 to 2016. Predictive GLMs were built with gamma, Weibull, and lognormal distributions using the lasso penalization method. Monte Carlo simulation models were developed to check the performance of predictive …

Delineating Operating And Support Costs In Aircraft Platforms, Garrett B. O'Hanlon, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Edward D. White, Gregory E. Brown

Faculty Publications

As the costs of Department of Defense (DoD) Weapon Systems increase, the ability to estimate the Operating and Support (O&S) costs accurately for the various weapon systems has become vital to long-term affordability. This research focuses on the O&S costs of the Air Force fixed-wing arsenal (i.e., platforms) for 1996–2016. First, the Cost Element Structure (CES) for 52 aircraft platforms and seven operational mission categories is analyzed to derive the descriptive statistics per aircraft category through examination of actual historical costs. Second, testing to identify statistical differences within the O&S CES construct across various Air Force aircraft categories is conducted. …

Evaluating Annual Fixed Wing Maintenance Costs, Kirsten Bunecke, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Brett A. Bush

Faculty Publications

This article serves two purposes: first, to empirically model the annual percentage increase of operations and support (O&S) costs for fixed wing aircraft; and second, to place into the archival realm another reference for other researchers to consider when investigating other O&S topics. For this study of 21 different airframes grouped together at the Mission- Design Series (MDS), maintenance subcategories 3.1 Consumable Materials and Repair Parts, 3.2 Depot Level Repairables (DLR), and 3.4 Depot Maintenance accounted for an average 91.5% of annual organic maintenance costs. For contractor-maintained MDS, subcategory 3.7, Contractor Logistics Support (CLS) accounted for 96.6% of annual maintenance …

Analyzing Operating And Support Costs For Air Force Aircraft, Scott C. Hewitson, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Edward D. White, Gregory Brown

Faculty Publications

Purpose: Recent legislation resulted in an elevation of operating and support (O&S) costs’ relative importance for decision-making in Department of Defense programs. However, a lack of research in O&S hinders a cost analyst’s abilities to provide accurate sustainment estimates. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to investigate when Air Force aircraft O&S costs stabilize and to what degree. Next, a parametric O&S model is developed to predict median O&S costs for use as a new tool for cost analyst practitioners.
Design/Methodology/Approach: Utilizing the Air Force total ownership cost database, 44 programs consisting of 765 observations from 1996 to 2016 …

Load Planning Processes To Enhance Cargo Compartment Utilization, Nathan J. Carlson, Adam D. Reiman, Robert E. Overstreet, Matthew A. Douglas

Faculty Publications

Purpose: The United States Air Force often provides effective airlift for cargo distribution, but is at times inefficient. This paper aims to address the under-utilization of military airlift cargo compartments that plagues the airlift system.
Design/methodology/approach: The authors examine seven techniques designed to increase cargo compartment utilization and increase airlift utilization rates. The techniques were applied through load planning software to 30 real-world movements consisting of 159 sorties. They then ran each post-technique movement through a modeled flight environment to obtain cycle movement data. The metrics gained from both the load planning software and the modeled environment were regressed to …

The Myth Of Strategic And Tactical Airlift, Jacob D. Maywald, Adam D. Reiman, Alan A. Johnson, Robert E. Overstreet

Faculty Publications

In the 21st century, our ability to quickly and decisively deliver combat forces and equipment is of the utmost importance in achieving our national security objectives. The swiftness and flexibility of the US Air Force’s mobility airlift fleet is the key to executing a rapid global mobility strategy. The operational effectiveness and efficiency of military air transportation relies on the expertise and intuition of Air Mobility Command’s (AMC) mobility planners. Working in coordination with the United States Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM) and geographic combatant commands (GCC), AMC is responsible for the tasking and tracking of almost 900 daily mobility sorties worldwide. …

Global Command And Control For The Future Operating Concept: Implications For Structural Design And Information, Ian M. Slazinik, Benjamin T. Hazen

Faculty Publications

Due to increasing demands on air mobility aircraft, US Transportation Command(USTRANSCOM) has more recently advocated retaining operational control (OPCON)of aircraft it might have transferred to a requesting combatant command in the past. This recent approach mirrors that of similar-type civilian logistics operations that are centrally managed to maximize efficiencies by flowing resources to the point of need without having to navigate through time-consuming sourcing processes. Furthermore, the acceleration of information availability has condensed decision timelines and changed how similar civilian organizations organize and perform, allowing them to react seemingly on a dime to changing market conditions anywhere.4While retaining OPCON might …

Toward Risk Assessment 2.0: Safety Supervisory Control And Model-Based Hazard Monitoring For Risk-Informed Safety Interventions, Francesca Favaro, Joseph Saleh

Faculty Publications

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a staple in the engineering risk community, and it has become to some extent synonymous with the entire quantitative risk assessment undertaking. Limitations of PRA continue to occupy researchers, and workarounds are often proposed. After a brief review of this literature, we propose to address some of PRA׳s limitations by developing a novel framework and analytical tools for model-based system safety, or safety supervisory control, to guide safety interventions and support a dynamic approach to risk assessment and accident prevention. Our work shifts the emphasis from the pervading probabilistic mindset in risk assessment toward the …

An Advanced Tabu Search Approach To The Dynamic Airlift Loading Problem, August G. Roesener, J. Wesley Barnes

Faculty Publications

This research effort presents a tabu search algorithm to solve the dynamic airlift loading problem. Given a set of palletized cargo items which require transportation from an aerial port of embarkation to an aerial port of debarkation within a pre-specified time frame, the dynamic airlift loading problem seeks to partition the pallets into aircraft loads, select an efficient and effective subset of aircraft from available aircraft, and assign the pallets to allowable positions on those aircraft. The dynamic airlift loading problem differs from many partitioning and packing problems described in the literature because, in addition to spatial constraints, factors such …

Temporal Logic For System Safety Properties And Hazard Monitoring, Francesca Favaro, J. Saleh

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Development Of Cloud-Based Uav Monitoring And Management System, Mason Itkin, Mihui Kim, Younghee Park

Faculty Publications

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are an emerging technology with the potential to revolutionize commercial industries and the public domain outside of the military. UAVs would be able to speed up rescue and recovery operations from natural disasters and can be used for autonomous delivery systems (e.g., Amazon Prime Air). An increase in the number of active UAV systems in dense urban areas is attributed to an influx of UAV hobbyists and commercial multi-UAV systems. As airspace for UAV flight becomes more limited, it is important to monitor and manage many UAV systems using modern collision avoidance techniques. In this paper, …

Software In Military Aviation And Drone Mishaps: Analysis And Recommendations For The Investigation Process, Veronica Foreman, Francesca Favaro, Joseph Saleh, Christopher Johnson

Faculty Publications

Software plays a central role in military systems. It is also an important factor in many recent incidents and accidents. A safety gap is growing between our software-intensive technological capabilities and our understanding of the ways they can fail or lead to accidents. Traditional forms of accident investigation are poorly equipped to trace the sources of software failure, for instance software does not age in the same way that hardware components fail over time. As such, it can be hard to trace the causes of software failure or mechanisms by which it contributed to accidents back into the development and …

System Safety Principles: A Multidisciplinary Engineering Perspective, Joseph Saleh, Karen Marais, Francesca Favaro

Faculty Publications

System safety is of particular importance for many industries. Broadly speaking, it refers to the state or objective of striving to sustainably ensure accident prevention through actions on multiple safety levers (technical, organizational, and regulatory). While complementary to risk analysis, it is distinct in one important way: risk analysis is anticipatory rationality examining the possibility of adverse events (or accident scenarios), and the tools of risk analysis support and in some cases quantify various aspects of this analysis effort. The end-objective of risk analysis is to help identify and prioritize risks, inform risk management, and support risk communication. These tools …