Aviation Commons^™

Short-Term Forecasting Airport Passenger Flow During Periods Of Volatility: Comparative Investigation Of Time Series Vs. Neural Network Models, David H. Hopfe, Kiljae Lee, Chunyan Yu

Publications

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), known for handling complex data tasks like language translation and speech recognition, are seldom employed in airport management practice for daily and weekly passenger flow forecasting tasks. In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness and adaptability of various neural network models (RNN, LSTM, GRU, Deep LSTM, Bidirectional LSTM, multivariate RNN, and multivariate LSTM) against standard time series models (ARIMA, SARIMA, and SARIMAX) for a short-term forecasting airport security checkpoint passenger flows at five major U.S. airports during the pandemic.

At Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson Airport (ATL), the RNN notably surpasses SARIMA's forecasting accuracy by 34% (DM= 3.44, p …

Impact Of Weather Factors On Airport Arrival Rates: Application Of Machine Learning In Air Transportation, Robert W. Maxson, Dothang Truong, Woojin Choi

Publications

Weather is responsible for approximately 70% of air transportation delays in the National Airspace System, and delays resulting from convective weather alone cost airlines and passengers millions of dollars each year due to delays that could be avoided. This research sought to establish relationships between environmental variables and airport efficiency estimates by data mining archived weather and airport performance data at ten geographically and climatologically different airports. Several meaningful relationships were discovered from six out of ten airports using various machine learning methods within an overarching data mining protocol, and the developed models were tested using historical data.

Deficient Aeronautical Decision-Making Contributions To Fatal General Aviation Accidents, Douglas D. Boyd, Mark Scharf Phd

Publications

INTRODUCTION: General aviation (GA), mainly comprised of light (≤12,500 lb) aircraft, maintains an inferior safety record compared with air carriers. To improve safety, aeronautical decision-making (ADM) practices have been advocated to GA pilots since 1991. Herein, we determined the extent to which GA pilots disregard such practices. METHODS: Fatal accidents (1991–2019) involving private pilots (PPLs) in single-engine airplanes were identified (N = 1481) from the National Transportation Safety Board AccessR database. Of these, deficient go/no-go and in-flight ADM-related mishaps were scored using the PAVE (pilot, aircraft, environment, external pressure)/IMSAFE (illness, medicine, stress, alcohol, fatigue, eating) and PPP (perceive, process, …

The Wings Program And The Compliance Program, Sarah Nilsson

Publications

No abstract provided.

Perception Of Crisis Management, Service Quality, And Loyalty Programs On Airline Travel Intention: What Roles Do Fear Of Covid-19 And Risk Attitude Play?, Sohel M. Imroz, Tamilla Curtis, Scott C. Ambrose

Publications

This research investigates the antecedents of airline travel intention, including the effects of crisis management, service quality perceptions, and loyalty programs, along with the fear of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and risk attitude among individuals from different parts of the world during the peak of the pandemic. Its main objective is to assess how these variables impact passenger airline travel intention. Partial least squares structural equation modeling was used to assess the measurement model and test the hypothesized relationships on the sample of 944 travelers. Results indicated strong positive associations between fear of COVID-19, risk-averse attitudes, and service quality with respect …

Systems Thinking Applied To Higher Education Curricula Development, Reza Rahdar, Mark London, Yuetong Lin, Hong Jiang

Publications

Systems Thinking (ST) is a general and yet nebulous term that describes an approach to understanding and working with complexity in the real world. ST seeks to evaluate different behaviors of individual system elements when they operate in isolation as opposed to when they are integrated as part of a larger system and placed within a particular operating environment. The education environment consists of multiple systems with different digital content, learning goals/outcomes that serve different stakeholders including teachers, learners, and administrators. The inherent complexity and interaction among these various educational system elements and functions make this environment a worthy candidate …

A Literary Survey On The U.S. Airline Maintenance Outsourcing: Technology, Economics, And Politics Perspectives, Linfeng Jin, Chien-Ting Lu

Publications

This study examines the U.S. airline maintenance outsourcing- a common business phenomenon in the post-1978 deregulated airline industry. Over the years, there have been several fatal accidents in the U.S. linked to airline maintenance outsourcing, and it has caught the attention of the government and general public. This paper went over the complex airline maintenance outsourcing factors from technology, economics, and political tripartite perspectives. And suggestions for the airlines, the regulators and the legislators are made in the end

Pilots’ Desire To Become Future Space Tourism Pilots: Polynomial Regression Using Response Surface Analysis, Robert A. Goehlich, Ralf Bebenroth

Publications

In this study, we investigated the impact of pilots’ motivation on their desire to be space tourism pilots or to remain in their current occupation (adherence). We analyzed the feedback obtained from a survey questionnaire on a sample consisting of 106 pilots with flying experience. In particular, we compared the pilots’ intrinsic and extrinsic motivations to investigate two outcomes: the desire to become future space pilots or to remain as air pilots. Applying the self-determination theory, we found that intrinsic motivation mattered more than extrinsic motivation. Furthermore, by applying response surface analysis as our statistical tool, it was revealed that …

Identification And Validation Of A Predicted Risk-Taking Propensity Model Among General Aviation Pilots, Joel Samu

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Risk-taking, a persistent topic of interest and concern in aviation, has been linked with unsafe behaviors and accidents. However, risk-taking propensity is a complex construct that encompasses numerous factors still being researched. Even within the limited research available about the factors affecting pilots’ risk-taking propensity, studies have yielded inconsistent results. Therefore, this quantitative study explores existing and novel factors that predict the propensity for risk-taking among general aviation (GA) pilots in the United States.

This study, conducted in two stages, involved developing a prediction model using backward stepwise regression to predict pilots’ risk propensity, followed by model fit testing using …

Overview Of Low-Cost Carriers In Russia And Post-Soviet States, Tamilla Curtis, Dawna L. Rhoades

Publications

The low-cost carrier's model made remarkable gains across the globe in the prior decade, although growth was uneven domestically and intraregionally. Within this region, there are significant differences in overall country size, the size of the domestic aviation market, and the number of carriers serving the market. The largest and most developed market is in Russia, but rest of the region also experienced growth in economy airlines' activity as they discovered the power of the model to expand aviation access and lower costs. The success of low-cost carriers, however, has been halting and hampered by government decisions on foreign investment, …

Evidence-Based Managerial Decision-Making With Machine Learning: The Case Of Bayesian Inference In Aviation Incidents, Aaron Glassman, Burak Cankaya, Kazim Topuz, Dursun Delen

Publications

Understanding the factors behind aviation incidents is essential, not only because of the lethality of the accidents but also the incidents’ direct and indirect economic impact. Even minor incidents trigger significant economic damage and create disruptions to aviation operations. It is crucial to investigate these incidents to understand the underlying reasons and hence, reduce the risk associated with physical and financial safety in a precarious industry like aviation. The findings may provide decision-makers with a causally accurate means of investigating the topic while untangling the difficulties concerning the statistical associations and causal effects. This research aims to identify the significant …

Loss Of Control In-Flight (Loc-I): A Mixed Methods Study Of Voluntary Versus Mandatory Reports From The United States Of America, Roger Lee

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Loss of control in flight (LOC-I) is one of modern aviation’s three most prominent fatal accidents. In the United States, air accidents are mandatorily reported to and investigated by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). Established in 1976, the Air Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is a voluntary safety reporting (VSR) system administered by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Over 1.7 million ASRS reports have been processed to date. While the NTSB system handles LOC-I accidents, less severe incidents may have been reported voluntarily through the ASRS.

Safety reporting has been deemed the most valuable activity and the centerpiece …

The Influence Of In-School Time (Ist) And Out-Of-School Time (Ost) Learning Experiences On Aviation Career Entry, Andrew Koch

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Increased demand for aviation has created a skill and workforce gap. An understanding of how to increase this potential workforce is vital to ensure the ongoing success and sustainability of the commercial aviation industry. This research explores science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) programs as a potential avenue for increasing the available aviation workforce. Specifically, it explores how STEM programs and their associated learning experiences influence career entry.

Utilizing a mixed methodology approach, this research retrospectively explored the self-reported effect of out-of-school time (OST) and in-school time (IST) STEM experiences on aviation career development. Through interviews, a survey instrument was …

Writing Matters: Investigating The Quality Of Collegiate Aviation Incident Report Narratives, Kayla D. Taylor

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Strong communication skills are fundamental to workplace success in the field of aviation. Numerous studies have shown that a deficiency in communication skills contributes to aviation accidents, and, as a result, the development of communication competencies within the aviation industry has received considerable critical attention. Understanding the acquisition and subsequent progression of writing skills throughout a pilot’s education, specifically in preparatory aviation courses, is an emerging area of research in aviation communication.

This study examined how the level of supplemental discipline-specific guidance affects the writing quality of incident report narratives composed by collegiate pilot students at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU). …

Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems: Operator Workload And Situation Awareness Utilizing First Person View Techniques, Ross Lucas Stephenson Jr

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

The small, unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) sector within the aviation industry is experiencing unprecedented growth. However, the regulatory guidance for the safe integration of sUAS into the National Airspace System (NAS) has not kept pace with this technological growth within the market. Current regulatory limitations of line-of-sight operations may have an impact on the establishment of an equivalent level of safety for sUAS operations as maintained by manned aircraft. The focal point of the discussion of line-of-sight operations has been the ability of the sUAS pilot to see and avoid all obstacles and other aircraft in a safe and timely …

Enhancing Cyberspace Monitoring In The United States Aviation Industry: A Multi-Layered Approach For Addressing Emerging Threats, Matthew Janson

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

This research project examined the cyberspace domain in the United States (U.S.) aviation industry from many different angles. The research involved learning about the U.S. aviation cyberspace environment, the landscape of cyber threats, new technologies like 5G and smart airports, cybersecurity frameworks and best practices, and the use of aviation cyberspace monitoring capabilities. The research looked at how vulnerable the aviation industry is from cyber-attacks, analyzed the possible effects of cyber-attacks on the industry, and suggests ways to improve the industry's cybersecurity posture. The project's main goal was to protect against possible cyber-attacks and make sure that the aviation industry …

Utilizing Flight Data Monitoring At A Part 141 Flight School To Determine Predictors For Unstabilized Approaches And Go-Arounds, Hannah Rooney

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

As general aviation accident rates are much higher than those of Part 121 air carriers, and the approach and landing phase of flight accounts for more accidents than any other phase of flight, the study of the approach and landing phase of flight is warranted in greater detail. Flight Data Monitoring provides an excellent source of data for the study of individual landing parameters. The intent of this study was to evaluate potential predictors of unstable approaches as well as go-arounds.

Flight data provided by a Part 141 flight school was examined to determine predictors for unstable approaches and go-arounds. …

Language As A Factor In Aviation Accidents And Serious Incidents: A Handbook For Accident Investigators Ed. 3, Elizabeth Mathews, Joan Carson, Anthony Brickhouse, Enrique Valdes

Handbooks

In an increasingly multicultural and multilingual aviation industry, it is important that accident investigators understand the complex role of language in maintaining safe operations. This Handbook supports investigators to systematically identify language factors in aviation accidents and serious incidents.

An Investigation Into The Economic Useful Life Of Commercial Aircraft As Impacted By Maintenance And Economic Variables, Robert Gallagher

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

This research involved examining the economic useful life of commercial aircraft and the impact of maintenance and economic variables on the viability and longevity of the asset. The data sample consisted of the entire population of Boeing commercial aircraft produced between 1956 and 2021. The objective was to determine the effect of both maintenance and economic variables on the longevity and usefulness of commercial aircraft. As manufacturers work with issues such as service life, economic life, safety, and critical design features, those in the aviation community focus on the operational side of the equation––how long can one operate the asset, …

Short-Haul Airline Services In Europe And North America - A Cross-Business Model And Cross-Continental Analysis, Chunyan Yu, Richard Klophaus

Publications

We examine short-haul services offered by the respective 10 largest European and North American carriers in terms of fleet composition, network characteristics, airfare and product attributes. Our cross-business model and cross-continental analysis builds on the index approach developed by Klophaus et al. (2012) to derive a typology of the hybridization among the largest carriers in Europe and North America in short-haul markets. Our results indicate that none of the largest European and North American carriers follows the pure LCC business model in short-haul markets, and all the LCCs in Europe and North America have adopted certain degree of hybrid strategy …

Urban Air Mobility (Uam) Flight Path: Literature Review And Conceptual Design Of Uam Corridor Virtual Lane System Using “Tracks”, Immanuel Bankole

Student Works

As the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) industry grows and becomes more popular, most of the conversations in the public domain are focused on the (electric Vertical Take-off and Landing) eVTOL aircraft and the physical infrastructure that will support these eVTOL aircraft. However, there is a lack of research on UAM traffic management and flight paths taken by aircraft between locations.

The United States (U.S.) Federal Aviation Administration has proposed the use of corridors to minimize the interaction between UAM operations and traditional air traffic as eVTOL aircraft perform flight activities. The government also acknowledges the need for additional structures (such …

Air Carrier Pilot Training, Supply & Recruitment Challenges, Paul Ryder, Todd Lisak

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

The route to airline recovery following the global COVID-19 pandemic is flush with opportunity for airlines, unions, and regulators to work together within current regulatory structures to recruit the next generation of aviation professionals, while continuing to ensure they are properly trained, qualified and mentored for safe flight operations. As an industry we have raised interest in pursuing aviation, but more still should be done.

The pace of the recovery from the pandemic induced reductions in air travel is testing United States pilot training and recruitment systems.

The reductions in air travel at the beginning of the pandemic led to …

Advanced Air Mobility Human Factors Considerations For Current Evtol Pilot Interfaces, Bhoomin B. Chauhan, Maria Chaparro Osman, Kendall Carmody, Meredith Carroll

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

Advanced air mobility (AAM) is a novel transportation concept using electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft to move people and cargo in urban and rural environments. The emergence of AAM has led to a range of different eVTOL vehicle designs at different stages in development, flight testing, and certification. Although these aircraft will serve similar markets, they will have different operational capabilities and pilot interfaces. These aircraft vary in whether they are (a) multi-rotor and have tilt-rotor capabilities, or (b) winged with tilt-wing capabilities, vectored thrust, fans, or propellers. The pilot interfaces in eVTOL align with the concept of …

The Value Of Strong Partnerships To Build A Successful Aviation Maintenance Career Pathway Program For Transitioning Military Service Members, Angela C. Albritton, Kenneth Witcher Ph.D., Christopher Toppin

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

The aerospace industry is competing with other industries for a qualified workforce, and many of those competing industries are investing heavily in creating workforce development pipelines. Boeing (2021) forecasts that 626,000 new aviation maintenance technicians will be needed over the next 20 years. If the aerospace industry is unable to recruit the skilled workforce they require, it could have a ripple effect felt globally. Career pathway programs are emerging as essential to inspiring and recruiting the next generation of aviation professionals. How can industry, academia and government work together to find more innovative ways to address the growing need for …

Change Fatigue In Aviation Maintenance Through A Human Factors Lens, Stephanie Douglas, Bettina Mrusek

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

Aviation is a demanding and fast-paced industry and it is not uncommon for aviation professionals, including maintainers, to experience rapid disruption and organizational change. Fatigue in aviation professionals is a known risk. Fatigue risk management systems (FRMS) seek to mitigate this risk by focusing on tiredness resulting from long work hours and lack of quality sleep. Recently, change fatigue has also risen to the forefront of business and employee studies. In many of today’s industries, change is constant as firms implement changes either to address disruptions, business growth or to follow trends in the industry. Frequent changes in an organization …

Workforce Of The Future Begins With Aviation Stem, Lyndsay Digneo

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

The United States has always been a world leader in aviation. This leadership position relies on the strength of the American STEM workforce and the quality of the nation’s educational, industrial, and government institutions. Therefore, it is imperative to nurture today’s students to become a well-trained STEM workforce in the future.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) William J. Hughes Technical Center (WJHTC) recognizes that in pursuing its mission of aviation research, engineering, development, and test and evaluation, it is in a unique position to support aviation STEM activities for schools (K-12), post-secondary institutions, and community organizations. In 2016, the Technical …

Determining The Effectiveness Of Single-Pilot Resource Management In General Aviation, Alaba Gabriel Idowu, Holly Augustine, Michael Adebola Shogbonyo

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

This research aims to determine the effectiveness of single-pilot resource management (SRM) towards improved safety in general aviation (GA) as compared to its counterpart, crew resource management (CRM), in commercial aviation that has improved commercial safety drastically. GA safety has been a significant concern due to many fatalities. Despite SRM concepts to ensure safe and successful flight operations, evidence showed that GA suffers a higher fatal accident rate than scheduled airline flights and holds a lackluster safety record, accounting for 94% of civil aviation fatalities. In contrast, commercial aviation safety has improved since the implementation of CRM. The investigation examines …

Why Should Airline Workers Be Trained To Respond To Fume Events?, Judith Tl Anderson

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

The potential for engine oil and hydraulic fluid fumes to contaminate the ventilation air supplied to the aircraft cabin and flight deck has been recognized since the 1950s as a function of the design and maintenance of the bleed air system. The presence of oil and hydraulic fluid in the bleed air matters because the fumes contain complex mixtures of chemicals, including toxic additives. Starting in the 1950s and continuing to this day, crewmembers around the world have documented ill health during and after breathing these fumes. Also, some crewmembers have reported impairment and even incapacitation inflight, resulting in investigations …

Utilizing Drones To Streamline Wildlife Hazard Management Efforts By Airport Operators, Flavio A. C. Mendonca Ph.D., Ryan Wallace, Jose Cabrera, Cole Mcnall

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

Airports operating under the Code of Federal Regulations Part 139 should conduct a wildlife hazard assessment (WHA) when some wildlife-strike events have occurred at or near the airport. The WHA must be conducted by a Qualified Airport Wildlife Biologist (QAWB). The required elements in a WHA include the identification of the wildlife species observed and their numbers, and the location of features on and near the airport that could attract wildlife. Service learning and research projects enable undergraduate students to develop transferable skills that are highly valued by the aviation industry, including critical thinking, self-confidence, the ability to integrate theory …

Development Of Upset Recovery And Basic Aerobatic Courses For Collegiate Flight Training Programs, Warren P. Pittorie, Michaela C. Satter, Meredith Carroll Phd

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

Upset recovery and aerobatics are two topics in general aviation that are often overlooked by commercial pilots in training. This can be due to several different constraints, such as not having the time or resources to receive optional flight instruction, or the workload involved with locating a reputable school and qualified flight instructor. In addition, upset recovery and aerobatics training is not required to become a commercially rated pilot and start a career in the aviation industry. However, both topics, especially upset recovery, can increase a pilot’s awareness of the limitations of their own aircraft and increase their confidence when …